Friday, 14 October 2016 upgrade? Friday, 21 October 2016 upgrade?

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2 Friday, 14 October 2016 Czech Rep. Moody's A1 / Stable 12/08/2008 no Czech Rep. Fitch A+ / Stable 07/22/2016 no Greece Moody's Caa3 / Stable 09/25/2015 no Luxembourg Fitch AAA / Stable 05/02/2008 no Malta S&P BBB+ / Positive 07/10/2015 upgrade? Spain Moody's Baa2 / Stable 02/19/2016 no Friday, 21 October 2016 Austria Moody's Aa1 / Stable 06/24/2016 no Cyprus Fitch B+ / Positive 10/23/2015 upgrade? France S&P AAu / Negative 10/10/2014 downgrade? Germany Moody's Aaa / Stable 02/28/2014 no Italy Fitch BBB+ / Stable 04/25/2014 no Luxembourg Moody's Aaa / Stable 02/28/2014 no Portugal DBRS BBBLu / Stable 05/23/2014 no Norway S&P AAA / Stable 05/28/2009 no

3 Key Economic Indicators & Events: Oct, 2016 FRIDAY 14 OCT 2016 Date CET Country Event Period SEB forecast* Consensus* Last* Mon 17 Speeches: Fed s Fisher (18.15), RBA s Lowe (23.10). Reports: Bank of America. Other: Riksbank s executive board meeting (13.00) UK House prices (Rightmove) Oct / JAP Industrial production Aug, f / NOR Trade Balance Sep --- NOK 6.8bn EMU CPI core yoy Sep 0.4/ / US Empire manufacturing Oct US Industrial prod. manuf. cap. util. Sep Tue 18 Speeches: Riksbank s Ohlsson on Piketty (18.00). Reports:. Avanza, Getinge (13.00), Asos, Goldman Sachs, Intel. Other: RBA minutes (02.20), EMU bank lending survey (10.00) UK CPI core yoy RPI Sep 0.2/ / / / / / UK House price index yoy Aug US CPI ex. food and energy Sep 0.3/ / / / / / US NAHB house market index Oct US Net long-term TIC flows Aug --- USD 103.9bn Wed 19 Gov. auctions: Sweden to sell SGB 1058 & 1059 (11.00), Germany to sell 30y bonds, UK to sell 10y bonds, Norway to sell bonds (11.00). Speeches: Fed s Williams (14.45) & Kaplan (19.30). Reports: Handelsbanken, Intrum Justitia, Investor (08.15), Boeing. Other: UK chancellor Hammond to testifies to parliament, European Council Oct, Riksbank s executive board meeting (09.00) CHI Industrial production yoy retail sales Sep CHI GDP qoq/yoy Q3 ---/ / / JAP All industry production Aug UK Jobless claims change Sep 3.2k 2.4k UK Average weekly earnings 3m/yoy ex. bonus Aug ---/ UK ILO unemployment employment change Aug k k SWE SEB releases SEK Views US Housing starts building permits Sep 1175k 1163k 1142k 1152k CAN Bank of Canada rate announcement + MP report 0.5% 0.50% 0.50% US Fed releases Beige Book Thu 20 Gov. auctions: Sweden to buy SGB 1051 & 1054 (09.00). Speeches: Fed s Dudley (01.45), Riksbank s Ingves on bank regulation & macroprudential policy (09.05). Reports: Atlas Copco, Axfood, Boliden, Husqvarna, MTG, SEB (07.00), Tele2, Verizon, Microsoft. Other: Third presidential debate (03.00), Norges Bank s Q3 lending survey (10.00) AUS Employment change unempl. Sep 15k k JAP Machine tool orders yoy Sep, f GER PPI Sep 0.2/ / SWE Unemployment rate seas. adj. Sep / EMU Current account seas. adj. Aug EUR 25.0bn 22.5bn EUR 31.5bn 21.0bn EUR 31.5bn 21.0bn UK Retail sales ex. auto fuel Sep 0.3/ / / / SWE PPI Sep / EMU ECB rate announcement (press. conf ) EMU Asset purchasing target Oct EUR 80.0bn EUR 80.0bn US Initial jobless claims 15 Oct k US Philadelphia fed business outlook Oct US Existing home sales Sep 5.34m 5.33m US Leading Index Sep Fri 21 Gov. auctions: Sweden to buy SGB IL 3110 & 3109 (09.00). Speeches: Feds Tarullo (16.15) & Williams (20.30). Reports: Assa Abloy, BillerudKorsnäs, Ericsson, Volvo, Telia, ÅF, Daimler, General Electric. Other: Government deficit & debt for EMU Q2 (11.00) UK Public sector net borrowing ex. banks Sep GBP 8.2bn 8.5bn GBP 10.1bn 10.5bn CAN CPI core Sep / / EMU Consumer confidence Oct, a * % MoM/YoY unless otherwise stated. Thomas Nilsson, This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) for institutional investors only. Information and opinions contained within this document are given in good faith and are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that they are accurate or complete. No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this document. Changes may be made to opinions or information contained herein without notice. Any US person wishing to obtain further information about this report should contact the New York branch of the Bank which has distributed this report in the US. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) is a member of London Stock Exchange. It is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK.

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14 EUR bn EUR bn EUR bn 30 EZ current account balance: negative seasonality in August Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 15y avg. 5y avg. EZ c/acc: driven by trade balance Current account (sa), lhs trade balance (sa), rhs

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