Cotton Market Outlook
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1 Cotton Market Outlook John Robinson Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University College Station, Texas FACEBOOK: NEWSLETTER:
2 Background: World Cotton Production and Consumption Production Consumption Aug-86 Aug-87 Aug-88 Aug-89 Aug-90 Aug-91 Aug-92 Aug-93 Aug-94 Aug-95 Aug-96 Aug-97 Aug-98 Aug-99 Aug-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Million Bales Monthly supply/demand August 1986 October 2015
3 Demand Indicators U.S. Export Sales and Shipments Downstream Demand Pull Outside Markets Retail Demand and General Economy Currency Markets Speculative Buying
4 U.S. Upland Cotton Net Export Sales and Nearby Futures /7/2014 8/14/2014 8/21/2014 8/28/2014 9/4/2014 9/11/2014 9/18/2014 9/25/ /2/ /9/ /16/ /23/ /30/ /6/ /13/ /20/ /27/ /4/ /11/ /18/ /25/2014 1/1/2015 1/8/2015 1/15/2015 1/22/2015 1/29/2015 2/5/2015 2/12/2015 2/19/2015 2/26/2015 3/5/2015 3/12/2015 3/19/2015 3/26/2015 4/2/2015 4/9/2015 4/16/2015 4/23/2015 4/30/2015 5/7/2015 5/14/2015 5/21/2015 5/28/2015 6/4/2015 6/11/2015 6/18/2015 6/25/2015 7/2/2015 7/9/2015 7/16/2015 7/23/2015 7/30/2015 8/6/2015 8/13/2015 8/20/2015 8/27/2015 9/3/2015 9/10/2015 9/17/2015 9/24/ /1/ /8/ /15/ Running Bales Cents/Lb. Net Export Sales Nearby Futures
5 Down Stream Market Pull index August 2010 = % A Index Yarn Index Cot-Dom Apparel Apparel CPI 120% 100% 80% % +24% +8% 60% 40% % 60 0% Sources: Cotlook, Global Trade Atlas, U.S. Department of Commerce
6 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2015 Lbs./Population Source: USDA/ERS/WASDE World Per Capita Cotton Use
7 U.S. Dollar Index (DX) vs. Nearby Cotton Futures Settlement Price U.S. $ Index 8/1/06 9/27/06 11/22/06 1/25/07 3/23/07 5/21/07 7/18/07 9/13/07 11/8/07 1/9/08 3/7/08 5/5/08 7/1/08 8/27/08 10/23/08 12/19/08 2/19/09 4/17/09 6/15/09 8/11/09 10/7/09 12/3/09 2/2/10 3/31/10 5/27/10 7/26/10 9/21/10 11/16/10 1/13/11 3/14/11 5/10/11 7/7/11 9/1/11 10/28/11 12/27/11 2/24/12 4/23/12 6/19/12 8/15/12 10/11/12 12/7/12 2/6/13 4/5/13 6/3/13 7/30/13 9/25/13 11/20/13 1/21/14 3/19/14 5/15/14 7/14/14 9/9/14 11/4/14 1/5/15 3/4/15 4/30/15 6/26/15 8/24/15 10/20/15 Cents/Lb. Nearby Futures U.S. Dollar Index Daily August 1, 2006 October 21, 2015
8 Fund Influences Fund Sector buying of cotton futures represents a noncommercial source of (sometimes fleeting) demand major price moves up (in April) and down (June-July) appeared to be spec influenced pattern shows less influence.
9 Cotton: Net Positions of Index Funds, Hedge Funds, vs. Nearby Futures Prices January 3, 2006 Through October 13, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 2/7/06 3/21/06 5/2/06 6/13/06 7/25/06 9/5/06 10/17/06 11/28/06 1/9/07 2/20/07 4/3/07 5/15/07 6/26/07 8/7/07 9/18/07 10/30/07 12/11/07 1/22/08 3/4/08 4/15/08 5/27/08 7/8/08 8/19/08 9/30/08 11/11/08 12/22/08 2/3/09 3/17/09 4/28/09 7/21/09 6/9/09 9/1/09 10/13/09 11/24/09 1/5/10 2/16/10 3/30/10 5/11/10 6/22/10 9/14/10 8/3/10 10/26/10 12/7/10 1/18/11 3/1/11 4/12/11 5/24/11 7/5/11 8/16/11 9/27/11 11/8/11 12/20/11 1/31/12 3/13/12 4/24/12 6/5/12 7/17/12 8/28/12 10/9/12 11/20/12 12/31/12 2/12/13 3/26/13 5/7/13 6/18/13 7/30/13 9/10/13 10/22/13 12/3/13 1/14/14 2/25/14 4/8/14 5/20/14 7/1/14 8/12/14 9/23/14 11/4/14 12/16/14 1/27/15 3/10/15 4/21/15 6/2/15 7/14/15 8/25/15 10/6/15 No. of Contracts Weekly Cents/Lb. Hedge fund buying associated with 9 cents of this 12 cent rally, i.e., funds more influential than fundamentals Index Funds Hedge Funds Nearby Futures Source: Commitment of Traders Supplemental Report (Futures and Options)
10 Cotton: Net Positions of Index Funds, Hedge Funds, vs. Nearby Futures Prices January 3, 2006 Through October 13, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 2/7/06 3/21/06 5/2/06 6/13/06 7/25/06 9/5/06 10/17/06 11/28/06 1/9/07 2/20/07 4/3/07 5/15/07 6/26/07 8/7/07 9/18/07 10/30/07 12/11/07 1/22/08 3/4/08 4/15/08 5/27/08 7/8/08 8/19/08 9/30/08 11/11/08 12/22/08 2/3/09 3/17/09 4/28/09 7/21/09 6/9/09 9/1/09 10/13/09 11/24/09 1/5/10 2/16/10 3/30/10 5/11/10 6/22/10 9/14/10 8/3/10 10/26/10 12/7/10 1/18/11 3/1/11 4/12/11 5/24/11 7/5/11 8/16/11 9/27/11 11/8/11 12/20/11 1/31/12 3/13/12 4/24/12 6/5/12 7/17/12 8/28/12 10/9/12 11/20/12 12/31/12 2/12/13 3/26/13 5/7/13 6/18/13 7/30/13 9/10/13 10/22/13 12/3/13 1/14/14 2/25/14 4/8/14 5/20/14 7/1/14 8/12/14 9/23/14 11/4/14 12/16/14 1/27/15 3/10/15 4/21/15 6/2/15 7/14/15 8/25/15 10/6/15 No. of Contracts Weekly Cents/Lb. Hedge fund liquidation and outright selling associated with 11 cents of this 24 cent price decline Index Funds Hedge Funds Nearby Futures Source: Commitment of Traders Supplemental Report (Futures and Options)
11 Cotton: Net Positions of Index Funds, Hedge Funds, vs. Nearby Futures Prices January 3, 2006 Through October 13, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 2/7/06 3/21/06 5/2/06 6/13/06 7/25/06 9/5/06 10/17/06 11/28/06 1/9/07 2/20/07 4/3/07 5/15/07 6/26/07 8/7/07 9/18/07 10/30/07 12/11/07 1/22/08 3/4/08 4/15/08 5/27/08 7/8/08 8/19/08 9/30/08 11/11/08 12/22/08 2/3/09 3/17/09 4/28/09 7/21/09 6/9/09 9/1/09 10/13/09 11/24/09 1/5/10 2/16/10 3/30/10 5/11/10 6/22/10 9/14/10 8/3/10 10/26/10 12/7/10 1/18/11 3/1/11 4/12/11 5/24/11 7/5/11 8/16/11 9/27/11 11/8/11 12/20/11 1/31/12 3/13/12 4/24/12 6/5/12 7/17/12 8/28/12 10/9/12 11/20/12 12/31/12 2/12/13 3/26/13 5/7/13 6/18/13 7/30/13 9/10/13 10/22/13 12/3/13 1/14/14 2/25/14 4/8/14 5/20/14 7/1/14 8/12/14 9/23/14 11/4/14 12/16/14 1/27/15 3/10/15 4/21/15 6/2/15 7/14/15 8/25/15 10/6/15 No. of Contracts Weekly Cents/Lb Index Funds Hedge Funds Nearby Futures Source: Commitment of Traders Supplemental Report (Futures and Options)
12 Sidebar: China Influences
13 What is Impact of Chinese Farm, Trade, & Reserves Policy? End of stockpiling, but Quality // Auction price of reserves??? Downside price risk depends on how fast/much they work it off. They ve said that they want to release 9% over the summer of 2015.
14 Alternative Paths for Whittling Down Chinese Stocks China s plan for selling 1M tonnes during Summer 2015 represents a 9% year over year reduction.
15 Resulting Impacts on U.S. Farm Price
16
17
18 Summary China Issue: What is Impact on Cotton Imports? End of stockpiling, but Quality // Auction price of reserves??? Downside price risk depends on how fast/much they work it off. They ve said that they want to release 9% over the summer of New target price policy encourages consumption of domestic cotton. Limiting import quota reinforces this. Impact on Chinese imports???????
19
20 Chinese cotton demand hits all time low Chinese cotton imports reached an all time low in September, as large domestic inventories reduced reliance on foreign supplies, at a time when economic slowdown is weighing on demand. Website CNCotton reports that China imported just 50,900 tonnes of cotton in September, a decline of 59% year on year. This is the lowest monthly import since records began in 2005, and the second month of record low imports in a row. The data from CNCotton follows reports on Wednesday from the China Cotton Association that Chinese imports for the first nine months of the year fell 42% to 1.16m tonnes.
21 U.S. New Crop Situation Historically low and late plantings Ample moisture in TX until August Other places also took a hit from too-cool and too-hot weather USDA apparently factored all that into August forecast of low yield and normal abandonment. USDA s September and October forecasts still calling for small crop
22 All Cotton Area Harvested, Yield and Production by States and United States, 2015 State Area Harvested October 1 Yield Production Alabama Arizona , Arkansas , California , Florida Georgia 1, ,300.0 Kansas Louisiana , Mississippi , Missouri , New Mexico , North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas 4, ,686.0 Virginia , United States 8, ,338.0 Source: USDA/NASS October 2015 Crop Production, Thousand Acres
23 All Cotton Area Harvested, 2015 Other*, 219 Alabama, 312 Arizona, 101 Arkansas, 205 California, 160 Georgia, 1110 Louisiana, 107 Texas, 4515 Mississippi, 315 Missouri, 175 N. Carolina, 380 Oklahoma, 195 S. Carolina, 232 Tennessee, 140 Total Area Harvested = 8,166.3 Thousand Acres *Includes Florida (83.0), Kansas (15.0), New Mexico (37.3), and Virginia (84.0)
24 All Cotton Production Other*, 438 Alabama, 545 Arizona, 318 Arkansas, 520 California, 516 Texas, 5686 Georgia, 2300 Tennessee, 290 S. Carolina, 385 Louisiana, 230 Mississippi, 730 Missouri, 390 N. Carolina, 705 Oklahoma, 285 Total Production = 13,338 Thousand Acres *Includes Florida (140.0), Kansas (27.0), New Mexico (81.0), and Virginia (190.0)
25 U.S. All Cotton Production, Final Estimate vs. September Projection, and Percentage Difference, (Million Bales) % 7.23% 6.09% % 7.86% -3.93% -6.17% -5.07% 7.79% 1.23% -1.33% % -7.44% -9.30% 0.08% / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /15 September Projection Final Source: USDA/WASDE, monthly
26 2015 Balance Sheet The historical variation in the production forecast suggests a possible range of 12.7M to 14.2M. Current bottom line is mildly stock reducing, yearover-year (historically price supporting)
27 Cents/Lb. (monthly) December 2015 Futures Settlement vs. December Futures Average Monthly Price for Stable, Larger, and Smaller Carryover Season Smaller Carryover ( 89, 90, 93, 94, 02, 03, 09, 13) Dec 15 Settlement Price (daily) Stable Carryover ( 95, 97, 98, 99) Larger Carryover ( 91, 92, 96, 00, 01, 04, 05, 06, 07, 12, 14) J F M A M J J A S O N D Cents/Lb. (daily)
28 What About 2016? Cents/Lb Dec. 15 Dec. 16 J F M A M J J A S O Daily January 2, 2015 October 21, 2015
29 More of the Same in 2016? Dec 16 futures in the same range 2016 CBOT futures similar to 2015 Maybe a little lower relative to cotton No reason for big acreage shift Low planted acreage is a set-up for later weather market El Niño winter moisture suggests good yields & low abandonment Unless La Niña drought starts in May China stockpile still around
30 January February March 2016
31 March April May 2016
32 May June July 2016
33 June July August 2016
34 CONTACT INFO Phone: Cotton Spin Column, Southwest Farm Press The Cotton Marketing Planner Newsletter Partly funded by Cotton, Inc. Facebook:
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