Morning Research Focus

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1 Morning Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Research Department 4 July 2012 Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK):Funding Gaps May Widen in Shipping Industry 中外运航运 (00368 HK): 航运业融资缺口或拉大 Port Sector: APMT to open new office in Singapore and concentrate its Shanghai office on North Asia business, which may channel some throughput diversion 港口业 : 马士基码头将于新加坡成立新业务部并将上海业务部重点放在东北亚, 或分流部分吞吐量 Tencent (00700 HK): Obtained exclusive license from Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI) to operate Call of Duty Online in mainland China 腾讯控股 (00700 HK): 从动视暴雪 (Nasdaq: ATVI) 获得 使命召唤在线 在中国大陆的独家代理权 Latest Reports Summary 最新报告摘要 Nil Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 Country 国家 US 美国 Indicator 指标名称 Manufacturers' New Orders SA (mn USD) 经季调工厂订单 ( 百万美元 ) Data Period 数据期间 May 5 月 Current value 当期值 Mom 环比变动 Yoy 同比变动 469, % 6.1% Market consensus 市场一致预期 Mom: 0.1% 环比增长 0.1% Source: US Census 数据来源 : 美国统计局 Appendix:Chinese Translation 后附 : 中文翻译 25,000 HSI Performance 15,000 HSCEI Performance 23,000 13,000 21,000 19,000 11,000 17,000 9,000 15,000 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 7,000 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6

2 Industry and Company Focus Sinotrans Shipping (00368 HK):Funding Gaps May Widen in Shipping Industry Analyst: Jason Song What happened: According to media reporting, global funding gaps in shipping industry may be as much as US$65 billion, the gaps may widen to US$101 billion in The operations and credit ratings between different sizes of ship owners are widening, which may put negative effects on the future operations of the related companies. Comments and views: The Companies with higher credit ratings may have little trouble in financing. But for small and medium sized and lower credit rated companies, they may face severer funding constrains. As a ship owner company, Sinotrans Shipping currently has sufficient fund. The Company believes the ship price now is attractive, but according to the Company s conservative investment strategy, it will buy the ship only when the return on the ship is attractive. Investment suggestion: We believe the future earnings growth of the Company may be from the industry recovery and capacity increase. As the industry recovery may not occur in short term, we believe new ships may become the share price catalyst of the Company. Reiterate Accumulate with TP of HK$2.00, representing 13.4x FY12 PER. Port Sector: APMT to open new office in Singapore and concentrate its Shanghai office on North Asia business, which may channel some throughput diversion Analyst: Jason Song What happened: According to APM Terminals, the group member of Maersk Group, it will open a new regional headquarters in Singapore in September The new office is to focus on Southeast Asian and Indian Subcontinent markets, and existing Shanghai office is to concentrate on growing North Asia operations. Comments and Views: APM Terminals currently has interests in 18 operating facilities in Asia in six counties, which handled 10.6 million TEUs in 2011, representing 31.6% of its total container volume. We believe APM Terminals is a major port operator and competitor to the China port operators. As it may divert some throughput from the existing port facilities of the current port operators, we believe the competitions for China port operators are expected to be more challenging in 2012 and Investment suggestion: We believe the excess supply of the port handlings in China may put more pressures on the throughput growth of China port operators. Given more upcoming competitions from overseas competitors, we remain conservative on the throughput growth of the port operators, especially the small and medium sized ones. Maintain Neutral for Port Sector. Tencent (00700 HK): Obtained exclusive license from Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI) to operate Call of Duty Online in mainland China Analyst: Dundas Deng What happened: The Company announced that it reached a multi-year agreement with Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI) to have the exclusive license to operate the well-known 3D MMOFTS title Call of Duty Online in mainland China. Activision Blizzard (AB) is the largest third-party interactive entertainment software publisher and leading game developer which developed famous game series including War of Warcraft, Starcraft, Diablo and Call of Duty (CoD). This web version of CoD free-to-play and will be monetized through the sales of in-game items. It also introduces a new gaming model designed specifically for the Chinese market and allows the players to enhance their weapons, gears and perks tailored for the Chinese market. New game modes, maps and features through series of Special See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 6

3 Operations missions will be based on Call of Duty: Modern Warfare universe. Comments and Views: Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 reached over US$ 775 million sales since its launch on 8 th Nov, 2011 in just 5 days and then reached over US$ 1billion in just 16 days. This great track record demonstrated the strong capabilities of AB in game development, marketing and distribution. AB is constantly looking for new growth drivers in the Chinese gaming market, Netease (Nasdaq: NTES) currently has the exclusive license to operate its other famous online game War of Warcraft in mainland China. The strategic partnership with Tencent signifies its acknowledgement of Tencent s outstanding track record, deep market knowledge and large player bases in China, and it will benefit both parties in bringing new best-selling titles to the fast growing market which demands more sophisticated gaming experience. Investment suggestion: Tencent remains to be our top pick in the internet sector mainly as its capability to capture the future trends and market share in the industry is still strong. The coop with AB to introduce its well-known titles to mainland China will ensure its growth in gaming revenues in the coming years. We maintain Tencent s investment rating as Buy and TP of HK$280.0, representing 27.5x 13PE and 1.6x PEG. Chinese Translation 中文翻译 行业和公司焦点 中外运航运 (00368 HK): 航运业融资缺口或拉大分析员 : 宋然 事件描述 : 媒体报道指全球航运业存在 650 亿美元融资缺口, 到 2013 年缺口将达到 1,010 亿美元 在船舶融资方面, 大中小型船东之间的营运差距和信贷资质正在逐渐拉大, 对未来几年的经营产生负面影响 观点评论 : 对于信贷评级较高的船东, 融资并未有很大困难 但规模较小或信贷评级较低的船公司或面临较严重的资金短缺问题 作为船东公司, 中外运航运目前资金充裕, 公司表示, 目前船价较为吸引, 但公司投资策略较为保守, 除非有较好的船舶项目, 否则不会轻易做出买船投资 投资建议 : 我们认为公司未来的盈利增长来自行业的复苏及运力的增长 由于行业复苏短期难以发生, 我们认为新船项目将成为公司股价催化剂 重申 收集 评级, 目标价 2.00 港元, 相当于 13.4 倍 2012 年预测市盈率 港口业 : 马士基码头将于新加坡成立新业务部并将上海业务部重点放在东北亚, 或分流部分吞吐量 分析员 : 宋然 事件描述 : 根据马士基集团成员, 马士基码头公司资料, 该公司将于 2012 年 9 月在新加坡成立新区域总部 新总部将主要负责东南亚及印度次大陆的市场, 而现有的上海业务部将把重点放在东北亚业务上 观点评论 : 马士基码头目前在亚洲 6 个国家投资了 18 个码头,2011 年吞吐量 1,060 万标箱, 占其全球码头吞吐量的 31.6% 我们认为马士基码头是一个主要码头运营商, 同时也是中国码头运营商的一个主要竞争对手 考虑到可能会从现有码头设施上分流部分吞吐量, 我们认为中国码头运营商 2012 及 2013 年将面临更多竞争挑战 投资建议 : 我们认为中国港口的产能过剩问题可能对中国港口运营商的吞吐量增长带来压力 考虑到未来来自海外的竞争加剧, 我们对港口企业的吞吐量增长保持谨慎, 特别是中小型港口企业 维持港口行业 See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 6

4 中性 评级 腾讯控股 (00700 HK): 从动视暴雪 (Nasdaq: ATVI) 获得 使命召唤在线 在中国大陆的独家代理权分析员 : 邓京晶 事件描述 : 公司公布已与动视暴雪 (Nasdaq: ATVI) 取得大陆市场独家代理其著名 3D 第一人称射击类多人网络游戏 Call of Duty Online ( 使命召唤在线 ) 的多年合约 动视暴雪 ( 暴雪 ) 是全球最大的第三方互动娱乐软件开发商和领先的游戏开发商, 旗下开发了多款著名游戏系列, 包括魔兽世界, 星际争霸, 暗黑破坏神和使命召唤 Call of Duty 这个网络版的使命召唤属于免费游戏且通过游戏内道具收费的模式进行商业化 该游戏将带来为中国市场定制的新游戏模式并允许玩家个性化其武器, 装备和角色 新游戏模式, 地图和特色将通过基于 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare ( 使命召唤 : 现代战争 3) 世界观的故事 事件描述 : 使命召唤 : 现代战争 3 在游戏首发后的 5 天内取得了 7.75 亿美元的销售, 而在 16 天内取得了 亿美元的销售 这个优异的成绩显示出动视暴雪在游戏开发, 市场拓展和分销方面极强的能力 暴雪一直在中国市场寻求新的增长动力, 网易 (Nasdaq: NTES) 目前拥有其另外一个著名网络游戏 魔兽世界 在中国大陆的独家代理权 暴雪与腾讯的战略合作显示其对腾讯在国内突出的运营记录, 深度的市场把握能力和巨大的用户基础的认同, 合作将使得双方共赢并为这个快速增长而需要更出色游戏体验的市场带来新的畅销产品 投资建议 : 腾讯仍是我们在互联网行业内首选的主要原因是其把握业内未来趋势和市场份额的能力保持强劲 今后和暴雪的合作并将著名游戏产品引入中国大陆可确保其游戏收入的增长 我们维持腾讯的投资评级为买入, 目标价为 港元, 相当于 27.5 倍 13 年市盈率和 1.6 倍 市盈增长率 See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 6

5 Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 (86755) / (852) Felix Luo 罗磊 Insurance, Conglomerates 保险 综合红筹 luolei7326@gtjas.com (86755) Ray Zhao 赵睿 Steel, Cement and Construction Material 钢铁 水泥建材 zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) Harry Chen 陈欢瑜 Aviation, Automobiles & Components 航空 汽车 chenhuanyu@gtjas.com (86755) Jerry Peng 彭港祥 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) penggangxiang@gtjas.com (86755) Wilson Li 李伟 Banking 银行 liwei6870@gtjas.com (86755) Gary Wong 黄家玮 Toll Roads, Infrastructure 公路 基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭 电力 wuyichao@gtjas.com (86755) Dundas Deng 邓京晶 Internet 互联网 dengjingjing@gtjas.com (86755) Johnson Sun 孙凤强 Health care 医药 johnson.sun@gtjas.com.hk (852) Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Small&Mid cap 消费 ( 酒店 ), 中小型股 noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) Sunny Kwok 郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household products) 消费 ( 食品饮料 日用品 ) sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk (852) Frank Xu 许智程 Consumer (Retailing) 消费 ( 零售 ) xuzhicheng@gtjas.com (86755) Jason Song 宋然 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流 港口 jason.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market strategy 市场策略 guqiaoyi@gtjas.com (86755) Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) Roger Sun 孙凌霄 Telecommunications Equipment, Machinery 机械 通信设备 sunlingxiao@gtjas.com (86755) Kevin Guo 郭勇 Nonferrous Metals, Precious Metals 有色金属 贵金属 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) Donald Yu 余立峰 Property 房地产 yulifeng011680@gtjas.com (86755) Peter Sheng 盛骅 Clean energy, Electric equipment 清洁能源 电力设备 shenghua011681@gtjas.com (86755) Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunication services 电信 ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) Anki Lam 林婉琋 Research assistant 研究助理 anki.lam@gtjas.com.hk (852) See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 6

6 Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for Shandong Chenming Papers Holdings Limited-H shares (01812) and China City Railway Transportation Technology Holdings Company Limited (08240), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships within the preceding 12 months for Jiangsu Expressway (00177) / Huaneng Power (00902) / Active Group (01096) / China Titans Energy (02188) / Costin New Materials (02228) / China Modern Dairy Holdings (01117) / Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) / Xiangyu Dredging (00871) / Billion (02299) mentioned in this Research Report/ Kingworld Medicines Group Limited (01110)/ China Hongqiao Group Limited(01378) DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queens Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) Fax: (852) Website: See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 6