Overvalued communication tower infrastructure service provider

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1 ChinaTower (788.HK) 3 th Jan 219 Target Price(HKD) th Jan Close Price 1.67 HSI Week Range.99/1.76 Market Cap(HKDm) 293,93 3-mth ave. T/O(HKDm) 1.3 Auditor Data source:bloomberg Performance Data source:bloomberg PwC Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) Relative to HSI (%) Data Source:Bloomberg Overvalued communication tower infrastructure service provider The mobile data growth is the basic driving force for the China Tower s business. The internet mobile application is the main factor to promote the mobile data growth. As known, G can satisfy most mobile application for personal users. The demand of mobile application lags may delay the investment for 5G. The investment for 5G is large amount, long cycle and stable growth Compared to G, the 5G investment has characters large amount, long cycle and the investment speed is stable, especially for the base station facilities. Different from G, the 5G applications are not mature yet and it is mainly used for the commercial applications. The personal demand for the 5G is not necessitous and this will make the operators only allocate their resources to some special regions in the first stage. And the investment speed may be not as high as expected. The selling pressure from restricted shares releasing and profit taking The China Tower listed in HKEX in 8 th Aug 218 and it launched 1 cornerstone investors and subscribed a total of billion shares when it listed, accounting for 2.6% of H shares in issue upon completion of the Global Offering. The lock-up period for these shares are six months and up to 8 th February 219, the China Tower will be listed for six months and these shares will be released. Based on 1.26 HKD the offer price, these shares have book profit 3,56.8 million HKD. There is large selling pressure from restricted shares Underweight for profit margin is limited and hard to upgrade Based on the 5G construction plan issued by the operator and the processing of 5G application, we expected that the large-scale construction for the 5G will start in 22 and we don t think it will not contribute too much for the China Tower s performance in 219/22. According to the Bloomberg s consensus, the adjusted EPS for 219/22 is RMB.31/.8, which corresponds to 5.x/29.3x PE in 219/22 According to the IPO prospectus, there is no dividend in the past recording period and there is no pre-determined dividend payout ratio, compared to the international peers, most of them have an attractive dividend rate. And the major customers are the major shareholders for the group, there is no much price bargaining power for the group. As state-own public utilization company, the profit margin is limited. The group can increase its profit rate depending on sharing including the sharing of tower resources and the sharing public resources. The profit margin is relatively limited. Based on the illustration above, even though, we agree that China Tower is a good company with good prospect and there will be a good cash flow in the future for the company have signed a long-term contract which will last for 1-15 years. The price has been in advance and over expectations. We give a target price 1.36 which corresponding to 37.2x/2.x PE in 219/22 and this valuation will be fair to compared with the international peers. Research Department Fosun Hani Wang Hao Ph.D (852) George.wang@fosunhani.com End Dec 31 (RMBm) FY16A FY17A FY18F FY19F FY2F Revenue 55,997 68,665 72,758 78,777 85,9 Net Profit 55 2,91 2,715 5,518 8,33 EPS (RMB) PE (x) PB (x) Dividend Ratio (%) ROE (%)

2 219 年 1 月 3 日 估值高估的通信铁塔基础设施服务提供商 目标价 (HKD) 年 1 月 29 日 1.67 股价 1.67 恒生指数 周最低 / 最高.99/1.76 总市值 (HKDm) 293,93 日均成交额 (HKDm) 1.3 审计 过往股价表现 罗兵咸永道 股票数据 1M 3M 12M 绝对回报 (%) 相对 HSI 回报 (%) 复星恒利证券研究部 Wang Hao Ph.D (852) George.wang@fosunhani.com 数据流量的增长是业务增长的根本驱动力, 应用端是流量增长的主要动力, 众所周知,G 通信可以满足绝大部分个人移动应用, 移动端应用的发展滞后有机会拖延 5G 投资建设的速度 5G 投资规模大, 时间长, 投资速度平稳 相对于 G,5G 投资规模更大, 尤其是对于基站设施的投资 但相对于 G 的投资, 由于 5G 应用尚未成熟, 并且主要以商业端的应用为主, 个人应用尚未成熟, 运营商可能会按需投资和部署, 相对 G, 5G 的部署需求可能短期并不能如预期那么快, 投资速度可能会更加平稳 中国移动用户数据流量由 212 年人均.8GB/ 年至 217 年 17.G/ 年, 年复合增长率 85.5%,222 年将达到 8.5%GB/ 年, 年复合增长率 35.9% 限售股解禁, 获利盘沽压大 218 年 8 月 8 日, 中国铁塔于香港联交所上市,219 年 2 月 8 日, 中国铁塔上市六个月 中国铁塔上市时引入十名基石投资者, 合共认购 亿股, 约占全球发售完成时已发行 H 股的 2.6%, 锁定期半年, 以招股价 1.26 港元计算, 该部分股份合计账面获利 35.7 亿港元, 解除锁定期后该部分限售股沽压较大 议价能力弱, 盈利水平较难提升, 价值高估 根据运营商发布的 5G 建设计划以及 5G 应用的相关计划, 我们预期,5G 建设投资主要基础设施投资将从 22 年开始放量 根据彭博一致预测,219/22 经调整 EPS 分别为 RMB.31/.8, 分别对应 219/22 年 5.x 及 29.3x 的 PE 相对于国际同业, 根据集团介绍, 于过往记录期, 并无宣派股息, 并目前无预先厘定派息率 且集团客户本身为集团三大股东, 料利润率的提升主要依靠 共享 包括铁塔资源的共享及公共资源共享, 作为国有公用事业机构, 其利润水平相对受限, 利润率的提升空间相对受限 基于上述理由, 尽管我们同意中国铁塔是 5G 领域稀缺优质标的, 且 其未来业绩及现金流通过与运营商签订 1-15 年的合同提前锁定, 但鉴于 5G 投资周期及与同业的比较我们认为, 集团的价格已提前 超预期反应, 基于此, 我们给予集团 1.36 港币的目标价, 对应 219/22 年 37.2x/2.x PE, 且更为接近国际同业的估值 截至 Dec 31 (RMBm) FY16A FY17A FY18F FY19F FY2F 营业额 55,997 68,665 72,758 78,777 85,9 净利润 55 2,91 2,715 5,518 8,33 每股实际盈利 (RMB) 市盈率 (x) 市净率 (x) 股息率 (%) 净资产收益率 (%)

3 China Tower is the world s largest telecommunications tower infrastructure service provider. According to the F&S report, the company s market share in the PRC telecommunications tower infrastructure industry was 96.3% in terms of the number of sites and 97.3% in terms of revenue in and as of December 31, 217. As of June 3, 218, China Tower operated and managed 1,898,139 sites, including 1,878,739 tower sites and 19, DAS sites, and served 2,78,559 tenants, including 2,679,1 tenants in macro cell business, 21,5 tenants in small cell business, 26,972 tenants in DAS business and 57,2 tenants in TSSAI business. As of June 3, 218, the company s tenancy ratio was 1.7 and the tenancy ratio of the TSP tenants for ground tower sites in operation was 1.5. From the date of China Tower establishment to June 3, 218, 71.1% of new TSP tenants were served through co-location. For the six months ended June 3, 218, the company built and delivered 3,773 new sites. Figure 1 China Tower' Share Holders Structure China Mobile China Unicom China Telecom China Reform Holdings Public Shareholders 27.9% 2.7% 2.5%.% 26.5% China Tower Source:Company, Research Figure 2 China Tower' Revenue Figure 3 China Tower' Net Profit Q217 1Q Q217 1Q218 Revenue(RMB) Net Profit(RMB) Figure Peers Comparison

4 Ticker Company Name Mkt Cap PE ROE Dvd 12 PB EV/EBITDA Median Median 5, HK Equity CHINA TOWER CORP LTD-H 29, BHIN IN Equity BHARTI INFRATEL LTD 58, TBIG IJ Equity TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE 12, TOWR IJ Equity SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA PT 21, AMT US Equity AMERICAN TOWER CORP 578, CCI US Equity CROWN CASTLE INTL CORP 37, SBAC US Equity SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP 157, SITESB1 MM Equity TELESITES SAB DE CV 16, CLNX SM Equity CELLNEX TELECOM SA 5, INW IM Equity INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITAL 35, Figure 5 Peers Comparison Listed in Hong Kong Ticker Company Name Mkt Cap PE ROE Dvd 12 PB EV/EBITDA Median Median 29, HK Equity CHINA TOWER CORP LTD-H 29, HK Equity CHINA COMMUNICATIONS SERVI-H 9, HK Equity COMBA TELECOME SYSTEMS LTD, HK Equity CHINA MOBILE LTD 1,687, HK Equity CHINA TELECOM CORP LTD-H 353, HK Equity CHINA UNICOM HONG KONG LTD 27,

5 复星恒利投资评级标准 时间段 报告发布之日起 6 个月内 基准市场指数恒生指数 ( 以下简称基准 ) 股票评级 买入 股价超越基准 2% 以上 增持股价超越基准 1%-2% 中性 股价相对基准波动在 ±1% 之间 减持股价弱于基准 1%-2% 卖出 行业评级 增持 中性 减持 股价弱于基准 2% 以上 行业股票指数超越基准 行业股票指数基本与基准持平 行业股票指数明显弱于基准 利益披露声明 此研究报告是由复星恒利证券有限公司的研究部团队成员 ( 分析员 ) 负责编写及审核 分析员特此声明, 本研究报告中所表达的意见, 准确地反映了分析员对报告内所述的公司 ( 该公司 ) 及其证券的个人意见 根据香港证监会持牌人操守准则所适用的范围及相关定义, 分析员确认本人及其有联系者均没有持有该公 司的财务权益, 也没有担任报告内该公司的高级人员 免责声明 本报告乃由复星恒利证券有限公司 ( 以下简称 复星恒利证券 ) 具有香港证监会颁发的第 1 号 ( 证 券交易 ) 及第 号 ( 就证券提供意见 ) 发布 本报告仅提供予接收人, 其所载的信息 材料或分析工具仅提供予接收人信息并做作参考之用, 不存有 招揽或邀约购买或出售证券的意图 未经复星恒利证券事先书面许可, 接收人不得以任何方式修改 发送或复制本报告及其所包含的内容予 其他人士 复星恒利证券相信本报告所载资料及观点的出处均属可靠, 复星恒利证券不会就本研究报告的真实 准 确及完整性作出任何保证 接收人在作出投资决定前, 应自行分析或咨询专业顾问的意见 除非法律法规有明确规定, 复星恒利证券或其任何董事 雇员或代理人概不就任何第三方因使用 / 依赖本报告所载内容而导致的任何直接的 间接 的损失承担任何责任 复星恒利证券及其成员企业及其董事 高级职员及雇员可不时就本报告所涉及的任何证券持仓 本报告所载的资料及观点如有任何更改, 复星恒利证券并不会另行通知 香港 香港中环花园道 3 号冠君大厦 室电话 :(852) 传真 :(852) 电子邮件 :info@fosunhani.com

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