Mining Could Bring Positive Surprise in 2017, Maintain Accumulate

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1 Infrastructure Sector Equity Research Report Company Report Equity Research 股票研究公司报告证券研究报告 Company Report: Gary Wong 黄家玮 公司报告 : 中国中铁 (39 HK) gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk Mining Could Bring Positive Surprise in 217, Maintain Accumulate 采矿业务或会为 217 年带来正面惊喜, 维持 收集 CRG s 1Q17 revenue increased 5.2% YoY to RMB134.8 billion and net profit increased 15.3% YoY to RMB2.6 billion, in line with expectations. Gross margin dropped 1.5 ppts YoY to 9.5%. Selling expenses ratio and administrative expenses ratio stayed flat at.4% and 4.%, respectively. Finance costs ratio dropped.1 ppts YoY to.9%. For 1Q17, the Company received RMB257.5 billion in new contracts, up 36.1% YoY. The infrastructure construction segment will see positives due to the expectation of increasing investment in 217. The Government s strengthening of property market regulation may drag property development revenue in the future. For mining business, we believe that it should experience a big turnaround in 217. This is especially so for cobalt mining, which has been highly profitable given that cobalt price has increased by more than double since 4Q16, good news for the Company as they currently own 41.7% of one of the largest copper/cobalt mines in the world. Our EPS estimates for FY17-FY19 are RMB.624, RMB.668 and RMB.748, respectively. We raise the TP to HKD8., representing 6.x/5.7x/5.1x FY17/FY18/FY19 PER. Maintain Accumulate. 中国中铁 217 年首季收入同比增 5.2% 至 1,348 亿元 ( 人民币, 下同 ), 纯利同比增 15.3% 至 26 亿元, 业绩与预期一致 报告期内, 公司毛利率同比下跌 1.5 个百分点至 9.5%; 销 售费用率和行政费用率分别持平于.4% 和 4.% 财务费用率同比下降.1 个百分点至.9% 217 年第一季公司获 2,575 亿元的新合同, 同比上升 36.1% Rating: Accumulate Maintained 评级 : 收集 ( 维持 ) 6-18m TP 目标价 : HK$8. Revised from 原目标价 : HK$7. Share price 股价 : Stock performance 股价表现 (5.) % of return HK$6.59 (1.) May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 HSI CHINA RAILWAY GROUP LTD - H 基建行业 由于对 217 年增加基建投资的期望, 公司基建板块将会受惠 政府对物业市场加强规管将会拖累公司的物业发展收入 对于采矿业务, 我们相信 217 年应是一个很大的转机 特别是高利润的钴金属开采, 因钴价于去年第四季开始上涨超一倍, 而公司拥有其中一个世界最大的铜 / 钴矿的 41.7% 权益 年公司每股盈利预测为.624 元.668 元及.748 元 上调目标价至 8. 港元, 对应 6./5.7/5.1 倍的 217/218/219 年预期市盈率 维持公司投资评级为 收集 Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1 个月 3 M 3 个月 1 Y 1 年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % (4.2) (6.1) 1.4 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % (8.5) (11.4) (15.3) Avg. share price(hk$) 平均股价 ( 港元 ) Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 中国中铁 Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) ( %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 215A 599,942 11, A 632,856 11, (3.1) F 667,844 14, F 699,521 15, F 745,341 17, Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 22,844.3 Major shareholder 大股东 CRECG 54.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 15,543.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 ( ) FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债 / 股东资金 (%) Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高 / 低 7.71 / 5.4 FY15-18 EPS CAGR 年每股盈利复合年增长率 (%) 6.2 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6

2 China Railway Group 中国中铁 (39 HK) 1Q17 net profit increased 15.3% YoY to RMB2.623 billion; results were in line with expectations. China Railway Group s (39 HK) 1Q17 revenue increased 5.2% YoY to RMB billion. Net profit increased 15.3% YoY to RMB2.623 billion. Results were in line with expectations. The fast increase in net profit was mainly due to the implementation of the policy of Business tax to VAT, which substantially reduced tax and surcharge costs YoY. Gross margin dropped 1.5 ppts YoY to 9.5%. Selling expense ratio, administrative expense ratio and finance costs ratio stayed flat at.5%, stayed flat at 4.%, and dropped.1 ppts YoY to.9%, respectively. 1Q17 new contracts were up 36.1% YoY to RMB257.5 billion as at 1Q17, contract backlog amounted to RMB2,149.7 billion, up 5.5% YoY compared with 4Q16. We expect infrastructure construction revenue to increase at a CAGR of 5.7% in Infrastructure construction revenue increased 3.1% YoY to RMB551.5 billion in 216, while revenue growth for railway construction, road construction and municipal works, and other construction was +6.6%, -12.4% and 5.5%, respectively. According to the 13 th Five-Year Plan (13 th FYP ) for railways, total investment is likely to remain effectively the same as the 12 th FYP. We expect that domestic railway construction revenue is likely to remain stable in , and the annual 2%-3% growth rate is likely to be driven by overseas contracts. As for road construction, we expect investment to start rebounding in 217 (Jan.-Apr. 217 road FAI growth was 33.1%) and overseas demand will continue to increase due to the Belt and Road initiative. We expect road construction revenue to increase at a CAGR of 8.3% in As for municipal works and other construction, driven by robust demand in urban rail transit construction and an aggressive target to reach over 7, km of operating mileage by 22 (216: 4,153 km), investment will continue to increase, and we expect that revenue growth will accelerate to a CAGR of 7.3% (from 5.5% in 216) in for municipal works and other construction segment. Overall, we expect infrastructure construction revenue to increase at a CAGR of 5.7% in We expect property development revenue to decline at a CAGR of 5.1% in Property development revenue increased 12.8% YoY to RMB32.6 billion in 216, while gross margin increased.6 ppts YoY to 26.5%. However, the balance between the Company s property inventory and property under development decreased 4.6% and 7.7%, respectively, compared with 4Q15, showing that the Company was trying to destock inventory in property due to the Government s strengthening regulation in the property market. We expect property development revenue to remain the same in 217 and decline by 1% and 5% in 218 and 219, respectively. We expect gross margin to decline from 26.5% in 216 to 25% in 217 and to 23% (214 s level) in with price cuts. Figure 1: CRG s FY16 Segmental Revenue Figure 2: CRG s FY16 Segmental Profit Before Tax Infrastructure Construction Business 84.2% Survey and Design 1.9% Engineering Equipment Manufacturing 2.6% Property Development Businesses 5.% Other Businesses 6.4% Infrastructure Construction Business 73.1% Survey and Design 7.1% Engineering Equipment Manufacturing 6.7% Property Development Businesses 12.2% Other Businesses.9% See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 6

3 China Railway Group 中国中铁 (39 HK) Figure 3: CRG s Quarterly New Contracts 6 (RMB Billion) 1% 5 68.% 86.5% 8% % 34.6% 31.6% -6.5% 3.1% 41.5% 4.6% 19.8% 17.8% -17.1% -22.1% -16.7% 13.1% 23.2% 2.6% 31.% 4.2% 25.5% 36.1% 6% 4% 2% % -2% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Infrasture Construction Survey and Design Engineer Equipment Manufacturing Property and Others Total Contracts YOY -4% Table 1: CRG s Segmental New Contracts New Contracts (RMB hundred million) Amount YoY Amount YoY Infrastructure Construction Business 2, % 9, % - Railway % 3, % - Highway % 1, % - Municipal Works and Others 1, % 5, % Survey and Design % % Engineering Equipment Manufacturing % % Property Development % % Others Business % 1, % Total 2, % 12, % 1Q17 FY16 Table 2: CRG s Segmental Revenue and Operating Margin during FY16 Segmental Revenue PBT Margin (RMB hundred million) Amount YoY % YoY Infrastructure Construction Business 5, % 2.6. ppts Survey and Design % ppts Engineering Equipment Manufacturing % ppts Property Development Businesses % ppts Other Businesses % ppts Inter-Elimination (313.9) n.a. n.a. n.a. Total 6, % ppts A big turnaround is expected for mining business in 217. Mining business posted negative profit of RMB2.9 million in 216, RMB1 billion more compared to that in 215. However, we think 217 should introduce a big turnaround, with the segment turning profitable again, mainly due to 1) the loss making coal mining operation (which was the main cause of the Company s loss making situation in 216 due to huge impairment) being completely disposed of in December 216; and 2) the Company s metal mining business, especially for cobalt, was highly profitable given that the price of cobalt increased more than double since 4Q16, while the Company owned 41.7% of one of the largest copper/cobalt mines in the world (Sicomines Copper-Cobalt Min, Congo (Kinshasa)), which produces approximately 3,1 tonnes (the largest cobalt producer in China, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, produced 4,544 tonnes of cobalt in 216) of cobalt annually (together with 125, tonnes of copper). News from reported that the mine alone made RMB58 million in net profit in 216, the first full year of operation. We expect with the substantial reduction in loss making operations with the disposal of coal mining business and the improvement in cobalt/copper mining business, the Company s net profit contribution from mining business alone could be RMB3 billion higher compared with that in 216. See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 6

4 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 China Railway Group 中国中铁 (39 HK) Table 3: CRG s Operating Performance of Other Business Units during FY16 RMB million Revenue YoY % Net Profit YoY % Expressway Operation 2, % % Mining 2, % -2, % Merchandise Trading 25,212-1.% 78 n.a.* Financial Businesses 4, % 1, % Note: *Merchandise Trading posted net profit of RMB781 million in 215. Figure 4: Net Cash Inflow from Operations 7 (RMB hundred million) (1) (4.8) (17.7) (2) Figure 5: Total Borrowing Amount 2 (RMB billion) % % 15.3% % -1.4% -4.5% Total Borrowings YoY 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Raise the TP to HKD8., maintain Accumulate. Our EPS estimates for FY17-FY19 are RMB.624, RMB.668 and RMB.748, respectively. We expect the infrastructure construction segment to continue to grow steadily, benefiting from recovery in road construction and the robust demand in urban transit railway construction. In addition, we think that mining might bring a positive surprise in 217 with the disposal of loss making coal mining and improvement in the hugely profitable copper/cobalt mining business. We raise the TP to HKD8., representing 6.x/5.7x/5.1x FY17/FY18/FY19 PER. Maintain Accumulate. Figure 6: CRG s Revenue Growth, New Contracts Growth and Stock Price 1% 14 8% 12 6% 1 4% 8 2% 6 % 4-2% 2-4% Figure 7: CRG s Monthly Forward EV/EBITDA (X) Total Contracts YOY Revenue Growth YOY Price Performance Forward EV/EBITDA Average Source: Bloomberg. Table 4: Peers Comparison Company Stock Code Currency Last price PE (fiscal year) PB (fiscal year) ROE(%) D/Y(%) Market cap(mn) 16A 17F 18F 19F 16A 17F 18F 19F 17F 17F China Railway Construction-H 1186 HK HKD , China Railway Group Ltd-H 39 HK HKD , China State Construction Int 3311 HK HKD , Metallurgical Corp Of Chin-H 1618 HK HKD , China Communications Const-H 18 HK HKD , China Railway Signal & Com-H 3969 HK HKD , Simple Average Weighted Average Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 6

5 China Railway Group 中国中铁 (39 HK) Financial Statements and Ratios Income Statement Balance Sheet Year end Dec (RMB m) 215A 216A 217F 218F 219F Year end Dec (RMB m) 215A 216A 217F 218F 219F Turnover 599, , , , ,341 Property, plant and equipment 51,765 54,778 58,32 62,948 68,349 Cost of sales (551,256) (583,67) (611,79) (64,742) (681,617) Lease prepayments 9,29 11,986 1,476 1,86 11,199 Gross profit 48,686 49,789 56,54 58,78 63,725 Intangible assets 37,547 36,821 36,845 36,867 36,889 Interests in JVs and associates 7,889 11,482 12,36 13,414 14,679 Other gains and losses (8,894) (7,932) (9,49) (9,287) (9,572) Other non-current assets 41,413 44,131 45,875 47,778 49,856 Selling and distribution costs (2,342) (2,56) (2,738) (2,868) (3,56) Total non-current assets 147,94 159, , ,868 18,972 Administrative expenses (17,59) (17,68) (19,367) (2,636) (22,36) Operating profit 19,941 21,617 24,9 25,989 28,737 Properties under development for sale 66,64 6,962 57,914 55,18 52,267 Inventories 3,11 28,737 3,59 35,241 4,897 Interest income 3,12 2,197 2,37 2,422 2,543 Trade and other receivables 26, , ,12 251, ,323 Interest expenses (6,184) (5,774) (5,487) (5,478) (5,617) Due from customers for contract work 122, ,791 12, , ,161 Share of profit of JVs Cash and cash equivalents 93,33 114, , , ,742 Share of profit of associates ,61 Other current assets 47,491 44,598 47,183 49,943 52,891 Profit before tax 17,17 18,772 22,598 23,987 26,928 Total current assets 565,6 595,146 63, ,879 69,282 Total assets 713,55 754, ,5 821, ,254 Income tax (5,231) (6,69) (7,329) (7,636) (8,671) Profit after tax 11,786 12,73 15,269 16,351 18,258 Long-term borrowings 96,213 92,38 96,257 1,383 14,696 Interests of perpetual notes (472) Retirement benefits obligations 3,779 3,453 3,28 3,116 2,961 Minority interests Other non-current liabilities 3,828 2,985 3,268 3,575 3,926 Net profit 11,675 11,734 14,246 15,264 17,93 Total non-current liabilities 13,82 98,746 12,86 17,74 111,582 EPS (RMB) Trade and other payables 365,245 47, , ,74 463,499 DPS (RMB) Due to customers for contract work 14,857 12,952 14,247 15,672 17,239 Cash Flow Statement Short-term borrowings 84,29 8,17 8,449 8,98 81,391 Year end Dec (RMB m) 215A 216A 217F 218F 219F Other current liabilities 6,136 6,216 6,677 6,975 7,45 Total current liabilities 47,447 56,63 529, ,26 569,579 Profit before tax 17,17 18,772 22,598 23,987 26,928 Depreciation and amortization 7,813 8,761 8,831 9,59 9,29 Owner's equity 118,3 128, , , ,812 Net change in working capital 5,835 27,212 (1,877) (9,27) (4,927) Perpetual notes 12,123 12,38 12,123 12,123 12,123 Others (18) (25) (1,75) (1,243) (2,22) Minority interests 8,815 8,827 9,495 1,665 11,158 Net cash generated from operating activities 3,557 54,495 28,477 22,777 29,72 Total equity 139, , , ,413 19,93 Total equity and liabilities 713,55 754, ,5 821, ,254 Purchase of PPE & intangibles (1,326) (9,825) (8,776) (9,957) (1,567) Others (5,226) (7,653) (1,289) (1,412) (1,561) BPS (RMB) Net cash used in investing activities (15,552) (17,478) (1,65) (11,368) (12,128) Capital from equity offering 12, Issue / (repayment) of debt 1,13 (3,151) 4,381 4,586 4,795 Financial Ratios Dividend to shareholders (1,661) (1,965) (2,1) (2,422) (2,595) 215A 216A 217F 218F 219F Others (2,45) (1,654) (8,772) (9,121) (9,78) Net cash generated from financing activities 9,424 (15,77) (6,41) (6,957) (7,58) Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net increase in cash & cash equivalents 24,429 21,247 12,11 4,451 9,435 Net margin (%) Cash at the beginning of year 68,678 93,33 114, , ,936 ROA (%) Foreign exchange effect ROE (%) Cash at the end of year 93,33 114, , , ,743 Net gearing ratio (%) Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 6

6 China Railway Group 中国中铁 (39 HK) Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (198 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (1788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (2886 HK), Link Holdings Limited (8237 HK), GFI MSCI A I-R (CNY) (83156 HK), GFI MSCI A I (3156 HK) and CAM SCSMALLCAP (3157 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 217 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) Fax: (852) Website: See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 6

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