Long Pulte Group (PHM) Short Ryland Group (RYL)

Transcription

1 Long Pulte Group (PHM) Short Ryland Group (RYL)

2 Investment Recommendation The Trade Long PHM Stock Price $5.60 Adj Book Value $7.41 Scenarios Bear Base Bull P/Adj. Book 0.7x 1.1x 1.3x Target Price $5.48 $8.15 $9.63 Return -2% 46% 72% Short RYL Stock Price $13.56 Adj Book Value $12.13 Scenarios Bear Base Bull P/Adj. Book 1.3x 0.9x 0.7x Target Price Return -16% 19% 34% Long PHM Market is overly pessimistic on perceived book value, expecting large impairment charges. As well, underappreciated margin acceleration story not fully discounted into share price yet Attractively valued on very conservative adjusted book value estimate. Short RYL Market does not fully reflect the relatively weaker profitability due to lagging gross margins and lower SG&A leverage Still perceived to have a decent balance sheet despite deteriorating leverage metrics, which are now worse that peers Trading in line with the group despite a negative inflection in fundamentals Total -18% 65% 106%

3 Agenda Macroeconomic Drivers PHM Overview RYL Overview Conclusion

4 Macroeconomic Drivers

5 Record Low Starts 2,500 1,750 1, Average: 1.5m Min: 798k Average: 687k Min: 575k Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6 Axis Title Home Affordability Increasing Recent drop in ratio off high of > 600%, prices look attractive at ~400%. Home prices have stabilized and are more in line with historical norms. 800% 600% 400% 200% 0% Median Home Price to Household Income, SA 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Mortgage Pmt as % of Income Ratio fallen from 32% in 2006 to 16.3% We believe housing is affordable at current cheaper than average prices with cheaper than average long term financing Source: Census, Federal Reserve, BEA

7 Cost of Buying Appears Cheap Compared to Renting 3 Ratio of Mortgage Payment to Rent, Annualized % % Ratio currently well below 1 compared to >1.50 in 2007 Ratio below 1 suggests that home prices are cheap at current levels Source: Census Bureau

8 Starts Below Implied Levels 120% Housing Starts Per Population Increase 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ~19% Current supply/demand imbalance points to rising home prices Average housing starts ~.6 per population increase Current projected population increase of 3M implies starts of ~1.8M which suggests that inventories must be falling Source: Census, IMF

9 1Q2003 2Q2003 3Q2003 4Q2003 1Q2004 2Q2004 3Q2004 4Q2004 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006 3Q2006 4Q2006 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 Months For Sale mn Months of Inventory Inventory Decreasing But Still High 6 Total Homes for Sale and Months of Inventory Foreclosed Units Total Homes for Sale Months of Inventory Housing Inventories remain at unusually high levels Although high, inventories are falling and appear set to fall further given the current starts Source: New York Board of Governors

10 Real Home Prices Stabilizing Real home prices trending down and appear in line with mean levels Home builders as a group benefit from stable home prices, limited downside from here YoY Housing Price Changes showing signs of stability % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Real Median Home Price Housing Price Change, YoY 2% Source: Case-Schiller Housing Index

11 Pulte Group, Inc. (PHM) Revenue by Region Corporate 0% Central 20% East 33% Financial Services 3% West 18% Gulf Coast 26% Stock Price: 5.59 Market Cap: 2.14B Net Debt: 1.5B EV: 3.6 LTM Revenue: 4,059.6 LTM EBITDA: 12.2 LTM Net Inc: Adj. Book Value 7.41 P/B.75x EV/Rev. 0.97x

12 Pulte (PHM) Attractive Valuation Based on conservative book value multiple Gross Margins Increasing Towards Peer Avg PHM has guided bps GM improvement SG&A Efficiency 16% expected savings Inventory Impairments Fading 57% inventory write downs from peak book value

13 Gross Margin Approaching Peers 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Gross Margin, PHM vs. Group Q11 2Q11 3Q11 PHM Avg (excl PHM & RYL) Gross Margin Expansion to group average: PHM has historically lagged its peers at the GM line but recent initiatives are closing this gap. PHM has guided to bps of GM improvements through 4 major initiatives: (1) de-contenting the home further and reducing the base price of the home offered to the customer, (2) value engineering of the home building process, (3) moving away from national contracting to regional contracting, and (4) increasing relative market share. Source: Company Filings

14 SG&A Savings Accelerating 25% SG&A Margin, PHM vs. Group 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q11 2Q11 3Q11 PHM Avg (excl PHM & RYL) Cost saves can surprise to the upside We believe PHM will cut the most SG&A dollars in 2011 across the homebuilder universe. With stabilizing revenues, 2011 will be the first year that Pulte realizes more synergies from the cost reduction relative to its revenue declines. We expect cost saving initiatives to bear better results in Consequently, we believe investors under-appreciate the extent of cost saves by Pulte and thus could positively surprise. Source: Company Filings

15 Current Consensus SG&A Outlook PHM SG&A Margin E Revenue 9,256 6,263 4,084 4,569 4,004 Change y/y -35.1% -32.3% -34.8% 11.9% -12.4% SG&A 1, SG&A Margin 11.5% 12.6% 14.9% 14.1% 13.5% Source: company filings, Thomson One Analytics Currently the Street estimates cost saving initiatives to benefit in 2011 and thereafter. The SG&A leverage occurs despite a declining top line in SG&A expected to decline ~20% y/y in 2011

16 Inventory Impairments Should Abate PHM s cumulative inventory write-offs are ~70% of ending 2006 inventory levels, which is the highest in the group. We believe this decreases the risk of future writeoffs, while others may have more to go. All else equal, this should set the stage for improve future gross margins while decreasing book value risk Source: Company Filings

17 PHM Inventory Impairment Risk is Low PHM Inventory Impairment Risk Analysis PHM Revenue Estimate (2011) 4,004 YTD GM% 13.50% 2011 estimate is 14.6% Gros Proft 541 Avg. GM% of Top Tier Homebuilders PHM Gross Profit at Top Tier GM% Gross Profit Shortfall 17% Using highest GM implies larger inventory haircut Full Impairment to PHM's land inventory PHM Land Inventory: Land Under Development 2,583 Land Held For Future Development 996 Total Land Inventory 3,579 Impairment as % of Total Inventory 3.60% Current Market Assumptions P/ABV for Group 1.1x PHM 0.8x PHM ABV $2,837 PHM ABV to get group Valuation $1,931 ABV Adj. $907 Full Impairment to PHM's land inventory Impairment as % of Total Inventory 25.30% Too Bearish! While we think inventory write-off risk is much lower, the market appears to be estimating a much higher write-off, which we think is overly bearish! Source: Company Filings, Thompson One

18 Adjustments to Book Value We give PHM 35% credit for its deferred tax asset, less than the 65% we assign to its peers like DHI, LEN, MTG, and TOL, all of whom we believe will realize their DTAs sooner given their higher and current profitability. At 35% credit for DTAs, this adds ~$2.40 per share in book value In PHM s case another adjustment we make is for mortgage put back risk (see Appendix 1); PHMs has the largest potential put back risk given that it put up the largest reserves. PHM put aside the most relative to peers at $103mn, while DHI, MDC and RYL reserved $28mn, $8mn, and $15mnn, respectively. The mortgage put back risk incorporates the potential for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Home Loan Banks and others to force banks to buy back mortgage securities and other loans that didn t meet original warranty and representation commitments. It is a fairly complicated issue and thus we tackled it through a scenario analysis (see appendix). We currently believe the mortgage put back will negatively impact book value by ~4% or $0.20 per share. As a result PHM trades at 0.75x on Price to Adjusted Book basis, well below the peer median of 1.1x and average of 1.3x.

19 Ryland (RYL) Stock Price: Market Cap:.625B Net Debt:.4B EV: 1B LTM Revenue: LTM EBITDA: 7.8 LTM Net Inc: Adj. Book Value P/B 1.1x EV/Rev. 1.21x Revenue by Region Financial Services 3% West 12% North 32% Texas 26% Southeast 27%

20 (RYL) Gross Margin Lagging Peers RYL 13% Vs. Peer Average 16% Declining SG&A Leverage Negative SG&A leverage in 11 despite revenue growth Deteriorating Leverage Now at Peer Average At peer leverage average, set to weaken Potential Additional Inventory Impairment Significant legacy inventory poses impairment risk

21 Gross Margin Gap to Peers Widening Gross Margin trends, while improving, increasingly lag the group: We expect further pressure to gross margins given the retrenchment in growth of new communities which carry bps margin premiums relative to legacy land. The new community openings were a pillar of management s improving gross margin story at beginning of Absent the potential volume growth from new communities we believe RLY may again rely more on incentives/discounts to generate volumes, which could further impact gross margins.

22 Current Consensus SG&A Outlook RYL SG&A Margin E 2012E 2013E Revenue 3,052 1,976 1,284 1, ,062 1,230 Change y/y -36.2% -35.2% -35.0% -17.1% -13.4% 15.3% 15.8% SG&A SG&A Margin 12.2% 14.8% 14.2% 14.9% 17.2% 19.7% 13.4% Source: company filings, Thomson One Analytics SG&A cost absorptions keeps getting pushed further away: We believe SG&A as % of sales remains high and while recent cost reductions are in the right direction, we do not expect them to lead to 2011 profitability. Volume leverage remains crucial for Ryland absorption rates. Thus, given our belief that volumes will be limited for RYL, we expect SG&A leverage to lag peers. RYL management seems to follow or run behind competitors in terms of resizing its cost basis and wee believe its no different tis time. SG&A leverage increasing despite revenue growth

23 Deteriorating Leverage Due to accumulating GAAP losses continue, RYL s balance sheet continues to worsen. Leverage, has recently accelerated at RYL relative to the peer group. We believe RYL s higher leverage carries greater risk. In addition, given expectations for poorer profitability, we see the balance sheet deteriorating more. Furthermore, any potential inventory impairments will also lower equity capital, pressuring balance sheets. Market is wrong in assessing RYL s balance as in line with peers.

24 Cumulative Inventory Impairments Given that PHM has significant legacy inventory, we think there is potential for additional write-down which poses some risk to book value.

25 Conclusion Long PHM Improving margin profile, approaching peer group average Limited inventory impairment risk Attractively valued on very conservative adjusted book value basis. Short RYL Deteriorating margins at both gross and SG&A lines, now running below group averages on both Accelerating leverage relative to group, which we believe will only get worse as profitability gets pushed out further Potential book value risk from inventory write-offs Valued in line to group, which we believe is too rich given the aforementioned issues, which we believe is too rich

26 Investment Recommendation The Trade Long PHM Stock Price $5.60 Adj Book Value $7.41 Scenarios Bear Base Bull P/Adj. Book 0.7x 1.1x 1.3x Target Price $5.48 $8.15 $9.63 Return -2% 46% 72% Short RYL Stock Price $13.56 Adj Book Value $12.13 Scenarios Bear Base Bull P/Adj. Book 1.3x 0.9x 0.7x Target Price Return -16% 19% 34% Long PHM Market is overly pessimistic on perceived book value, expecting large impairment charges. As well, underappreciated margin acceleration story not fully discounted into share price yet Attractively valued on very conservative adjusted book value estimate. Short RYL Market does not fully reflect the relatively weaker profitability due to lagging gross margins and lower SG&A leverage Still perceived to have a decent balance sheet despite deteriorating leverage metrics, which are now worse that peers Trading in line with the group despite a negative inflection in fundamentals Total -18% 65% 106%

27 Comparables Market Data Book Value Valuation Fiscal ($ bil.) GAAP Adj. Price-to-Book EV / P/E Company Ticker Year Price MCAP Net Debt EV BV DTA BV P/BV P/ABV Rev. 2012E 2013E D.R. Horton DHI Sept. $11.54 $3.6 $0.7 $4.3 $8.20 $2.71 $ x 1.16x 1.29x 23.08x 13.46x KB Home KBH Nov. $7.51 $0.6 $1.2 $1.7 $4.65 $10.96 $ x 0.95x 1.31x (36.75x) 15.31x Lennar LEN Nov. $18.37 $3.4 $1.3 $4.6 $14.28 $3.20 $ x 1.12x 1.83x 22.71x 14.59x Meritage MTH Dec. $19.93 $0.6 $0.1 $0.7 $15.39 $2.80 $ x 1.16x 0.87x 30.82x 12.02x Toll Brothers TOL Oct. $19.55 $3.3 ($1.0) $2.2 $15.49 $2.48 $ x 1.20x 1.38x 61.00x 28.65x Hovnanian HOV Oct. $1.36 $0.1 $2.3 $2.4 ($5.66) $9.33 $ x 3.36x 2.00x (0.97x) (1.83x) M.D.C. MDC Dec. $18.81 $0.9 $0.1 $1.0 $18.52 $4.87 $ x 0.93x 1.17x (30.47x) 51.37x M/I MHO Dec. $9.05 $0.2 $0.0 $0.2 $9.82 $6.84 $ x 0.74x 0.32x x NVR NVR Dec. $ $3.2 ($1.3) $1.9 $ $0.00 $ x 2.16x 0.70x 18.02x 14.13x Avg. 1.19x 1.42x 1.21x x 18.46x Median 1.29x 1.16x 1.29x 22.71x 14.36x Pulte PHM Dec. $5.60 $2.1 $1.5 $3.6 $5.06 $6.72 $ x 0.75x 0.97x 31.11x 12.17x Ryland RYL Dec. $13.56 $0.6 $0.4 $1.0 $10.13 $5.72 $ x 1.10x 1.21x 38.74x 11.49x Lvg. Operating Metrics Net Debt LTM Y/Y LTM Y/Y Unit Y/Y Gross SG&A Land ($ in bil.) % of '06 Company Ticker /Cap Orders Chg. Deliv. Chg. Bklg Chg. Margin % (Yrs) Invntry. Imprmnt. Invntry. D.R. Horton DHI 21% 17,159-16% 15,989-25% 5,281 26% 16% 17% % KB Home KBH 72% 5,699-27% 6,452-23% 1,689-24% 13% 25% % Lennar LEN 54% 10,515-8% 10,524-5% 1,944 0% 21% 16% % Meritage MTH 32% 3,169-14% 3,219-24% 940-5% 17% 17% % Toll Brothers TOL 13% 2,686-9% 2,664-5% 1,472 1% 17% 20% % Hovnanian HOV 160% 3,818-22% 4,264-14% 1,196-28% 11% 16% % M.D.C. MDC -19% 3,084-14% 2,850-17% % 14% 19% % M/I MHO 56% 2,238-8% 2,194-21% % 14% 17% % NVR NVR -102% 8,787-10% 8,607-18% 3,685 5% 17% 13% % Total / Avg. 58% 57,155-14% 56,763-17% 17,947 2% 16% 18% % Pulte PHM 53% 15,177-7% 15,044-22% 5,188 2% 13% 17% % Ryland RYL 43% 3,606-17% 3,328-39% 1,465 20% 13% 17% % Source: Company Filings, Thompson One Estimates

28 Appendix

29 PHM Summary Stats Income Statement E 2012E 2013E Total Revenue 9, , , , , , ,937.1 Change y/y (35.1%) (32.3%) (34.8%) 11.9% (12.4%) 5.5% 16.8% Gross Profit 1, GM% 13.2% 10.2% 7.9% 13.3% 14.7% 15.6% 17.1% EBIT (147.2) (285.5) (266.6) (95.5) Operating Margin% 1.7% (2.3%) (7.0%) (5.8%) (2.4%) 4.2% 6.8% Net Income excl one-timers (2,274.4) (1,473.1) (1,182.6) (1,096.7) (177.5) % of Revenue (24.6%) (23.5%) (29.0%) (24.0%) (4.4%) 1.6% 3.6% Net Income (2,255.8) (1,473.1) (1,182.6) (1,096.7) (179.9) Net Margin% (24.4%) (23.5%) (29.0%) (24.0%) (4.5%) 1.8% 3.5% Diluted EPS, excl one-timers (9.02) (5.81) (3.94) (2.9) (0.051) Change y/y NM NM NM NM NM NM 152.6% Source: company filings, Capital IQ, Thomson One Analytics Cash Flow Current Capitalization Share Price $5.53 Shares Out Net Income (2,255.8) (1,473.1) (1,182.6) (1,096.7) Mtk Cap 2,116.8 Depreciation & Amort., Total Cash 1,142.5 Change in NWC Total Debt 3,383.0 Other Operating Activities 2, , , EV 4,357.3 Cash from Ops. 1, , Book Value 1,923.5 Capital Expenditure (70.1) (18.9) (39.3) (15.2) Total Debt 3,383.0 Other Investing Activities (151.3) (37.0) 1,733.1 (4.3) Total Capital 5,306.5 Cash from Investing (221.4) (55.9) 1,693.8 (19.5) Leverage Ratios Total Debt Repaid (448.8) (520.1) (2,224.4) (953.0) Debt to Equity 176% Issuance of Common Stock Debt to Mkt Cap 160% Repurchase of Common Stock (6.2) (5.3) (7.4) (4.0) Total Dividends Paid (41.0) (41.1) Debt to Total Capital 64% Other Financing Activities 0.5 (5.7) (3.1) Debt to EV 78% Cash from Financing (487.6) (567.7) (2,230.0) (948.4) Foreign Exchange Rate Adj. (0.2) (1.8) Net Change in Cash (387.6) Source: company filings, Capital IQ, Thomson One Analytics

30 RYL Summary Stats Income Statement E 2012E 2013E Total Revenue 3, , , , , ,230.3 Change y/y (36.2%) (35.2%) (35.0%) (17.1%) (13.4%) 15.3% 15.8% Gross Profit GM% 17.9% 10.7% 9.7% 14.4% 15.5% 17.3% 18.8% EBIT (81.1) (58.4) (5.3) (15.6) (25.1) 66.9 Operating Margin% 5.7% (4.1%) (4.5%) (0.5%) (1.7%) (2.4%) 5.4% Net Income excl one-timers (333.5) (396.6) (162.5) (85.1) (41.8) % of Revenue (10.9%) (20.1%) (12.7%) (8.0%) (29.3%) 6.3% 22.2% Net Income (333.5) (396.6) (162.5) (85.1) (42.2) (15.9) 60.4 Net Margin% (10.9%) (20.1%) (12.7%) (8.0%) (4.6%) (1.5%) 4.9% Diluted EPS, excl one-timers (7.92) (9.33) (3.74) (1.93) (0.95) Change y/y NM NM NM NM % Source: company filings, Capital IQ Cash Flow Current Capitalization (Millions o Share Price $13.73 Shares Out Net Income (333.5) (396.6) (162.5) (85.1) Mkt Cap Depreciation & Amort., Total Cash Change in NWC (106.3) Total Debt Other Operating Activities Minority Interest 35.0 Cash from Ops (69.3) Enterprise Value Capital Expenditure (32.1) (9.9) (2.1) (13.2) Book Value Other Investing Activities (452.3) 22.5 Minority Interest 35.0 Cash from Investing (16.5) (7.7) (454.4) 9.3 Total Debt Total Capital 1,316.6 Total Debt Issued Total Debt Repaid (111.4) (70.8) (129.1) (300.6) Leverage Ratios Total Dividends Paid (20.4) (20.5) (5.3) (5.4) Debt to Equity 185% Other Financing Activities (50.6) (5.9) (36.8) 2.0 Debt to Mkt Cap 136% Cash from Financing (182.4) (75.1) Debt to Total Capital 63% Net Change in Cash Debt to EV 85% Source: company filings, Capital IQ, Thomson One Analytics

31 RYL Summary Stats PHM Mortgage Put-Back Risk Dow nside Base Case Upside Notional Principal U/W (bil) $37.80 $37.80 $ Months of Mortgage Refinancing & Principal Amort x 22% 22% 22% Notional Principal O/S (bil) = $29.48 $29.48 $29.48 No FICO Avg. Portfolio Prime Loan Portoflio MTG Default Assumptions x 25% 20% 17% Notional Principal in Default = $7.37 $5.90 $5.01 Avg. 4Q09 Rate Avg 2Q10 Rate Ever to Date Rate Recession Rate x 23.80% 20.10% 15.10% Notional Principal O/S Likely Fraudulent (bil) = $1.75 $1.19 $0.76 CoreLogic HPI %Chg Measured 1Q06 x % % % Potential GSE Losses PHM Needs to Make Whole (bil) = $0.52 $0.35 $0.22 PHM settlements to Date (bil) - $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 PHM Cure Rate Experience Assumption x 60% 60% 60% Additional Loses PHM Likely Needs to Make Whole (bil) = $0.27 $0.17 $0.10 PHM's current Reserve (bil) $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 PHM's Current Reserve Surplus/(Deficit) (bil) ($0.18) ($0.08) $0.00 Surplus/(Deficit) per Share ($0.47) ($0.20) $0.00 Source: company filings, CoreLogic,

32 Homebuilder Statistics Delivered Homes Q11 2Q11 KBH 22,847 24,868 25,452 27,331 32,577 31,092 32,128 23,870 12,700 8,629 7,448 1,265 1,603 DHI 18,942 22,772 31,584 37,662 44,005 51,383 53,410 37,717 23,915 18,164 18,983 3,516 4,555 HOV 4,448 7,419 10,049 12,147 14,951 16,853 17,361 13,902 8,181 5,245 4, LEN 18,236 23,104 26,825 31,412 35,189 40,882 47,032 31,582 15,344 11,422 10,859 1,903 2,652 MDC 7,484 8,174 8,900 11,211 13,876 15,307 13,123 8,195 4,488 3,013 3, MTH 2,227 3,270 4,574 5,642 7,254 9,406 10,487 7,687 5,627 4,039 3, NVR 10,055 10,372 11,368 12,050 12,749 13,787 15,139 13,513 10,741 9,042 10,030 1,634 2,207 PHM 20,063 23,136 35,237 32,693 38,612 45,630 41,487 27,540 21,022 15,013 17,095 3,141 3,633 RYL 11,418 12,686 13,145 14,724 15,101 16,673 15,392 10,319 7,352 5,129 4, TOL 4,117 4,366 4,487 4,960 7,132 9,058 8,281 6,336 4,200 2,896 2, Total 119, , , , , , , , ,570 82,592 82,704 14,869 18,785 Homes in Backlog KBH 10,559 11, ,126 1,336 2,422 2,657 DHI 30,276 38,296 51,116 61,964 72,257 85,181 83,792 51,266 26,531 19,775 18,726 5,281 5,600 HOV 3,230 3,328 3,875 6,436 7,404 12,096 7,800 3,845 1,660 1,593 1,196 1,293 1,469 LEN 7,851 8,084 11,667 12,679 13,961 17,206 10,519 3,645 1,591 1,622 1,601 1,944 2,461 MDC 3,292 2,882 4,035 5,593 6,505 6,532 3,638 1, ,424 MTH 1,246 1,602 2,070 2,580 4,408 6,394 3,685 2,288 1,281 1, NVR 5,148 5,558 6,357 6,890 7,372 8,310 6,388 5,145 3,164 3,531 2,916 3,685 3,946 PHM 5,477 8,678 10,605 13,952 15,916 17,817 10,255 7,890 2,174 5,931 3,984 5,188 5,777 RYL 4,168 4,577 5,368 5,841 7,620 8,464 4,206 2,869 1,559 1,732 1,187 1,465 1,646 TOL 2,643 2,645 3,362 5,079 7,292 8,635 5,949 3,341 1,647 1,461 1,472 1,760 1,780 Total 73,890 86,777 98, , , , ,232 82,236 40,140 39,692 34,038 24,971 27,754 Delivered Homes Average Price KBH $168,300 $178,000 $190,800 $206,500 $219,900 $261,200 $287,700 $261,600 $236,400 $207,100 $214,500 $213,400 $227,400 DHI $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $199,600 $208,500 $213,900 HOV $256,015 $249,819 $261,369 $269,993 $290,346 $320,885 $333,685 $323,499 $303,763 $280,795 $279,731 $275,000 $278,000 LEN $226,000 $237,000 $245,000 $256,000 $272,000 $311,000 $315,000 $297,000 $270,000 $243,000 $243,000 $240,000 $245,000 MDC $227,300 $254,100 $254,000 $254,300 $282,700 $313,100 $354,400 $337,500 $302,600 $277,800 $283,800 $294,900 $290,800 MTH $231,400 $227,100 $243,200 $259,100 $277,900 $318,600 $328,400 $303,600 $267,500 $238,400 $254,200 $261,800 $257,200 NVR $224,600 $246,000 $268,500 $297,900 $332,200 $374,900 $398,200 $373,200 $338,400 $296,400 $297,100 $307,600 $309,200 PHM $204,903 $223,924 $203,247 $259,000 $287,000 $315,000 $337,000 $322,000 $284,000 $258,000 $259,000 $249,000 $248,000 RYL $200,170 $208,000 $210,000 $224,000 $251,000 $278,000 $295,000 $285,000 $252,000 $240,000 $242,000 $245,000 $277,149 TOL $458,363 $504,994 $524,726 $557,003 $594,359 $667,798 $690,810 $673,610 $640,187 $577,688 $574,231 $540,905 $568,983 Total $239,665 $252,854 $260,044 $278,340 $300,701 $336,008 $353,979 $337,661 $309,445 $281,878 $284,716 $283,611 $291,563 Total Homebuilding Inventories KBH 1,657 1,885 2,173 2,883 4,143 6,128 5,752 3,312 2,107 1,501 1,697 1,895 1,901 DHI 2,533 4,201 4,736 5,836 7,927 10,852 11,209 7,065 4,168 3,764 3,474 3,474 3,501 HOV ,276 2,023 2,618 3,886 4,134 3,357 1,919 1, ,025 LEN 2,302 2,417 3,238 3,656 5,142 7,864 7,831 4,500 4,500 4,088 4,170 4,297 4,302 MDC ,235 1,496 2,016 2,998 2,754 1, MTH ,015 1,559 1,703 1, NVR ,063 1,587 1,412 1, PHM 1,897 3,834 4,294 5,835 7,578 9,090 9,884 7,301 4,537 5,173 4,904 4,907 5,063 RYL ,100 1,397 2,024 2,580 2,771 1,814 1, TOL 1,846 2,277 2,716 3,273 4,146 5,531 6,182 5,274 3,933 3,224 3,360 3,385 3,424 Total 13,387 18,293 21,999 28,023 37,672 52,076 53,633 36,506 24,379 21,264 21,444 21,987 22,392 Source: company filings