CARB millions except for EPS Actual
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- Wilfred Lewis
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1 *************************************************************************************** CARB millions except for EPS Actual Revenue 21.6 EBITDA 0.4 Adj. EPS (0.13) Q Comparison of Estimates Company High Guidance High Low Average Δ % from Avg Est $ $ $ 21.5 $ 21.2 $ % $ $ - $ (2.0) $ (2.5) $ (2.3) 119.7% $ $ (0.17) $ (0.17) $ (0.18) $ (0.18) 27.8% Seq Revenue. Growth 6.5% 6.2% 6.2% 4.9% 5.5% Seq EBITDA. Growth 154.3% % % % Seq. EPS. Growth 23.5% 0.0% 5.9% 5.9% Y-o-Y Revenue. Growth 35.5% 35.0% 35.0% 33.4% 34.2% Y-o-Y EBITDA. Growth 109.0% -58.9% -49.5% -54.2% Y-o-Y EPS. Growth 50.0% 34.6% 34.6% 30.8% 30.8% EBITDA Margin 2.1% 0.0% -9.4% -11.7% -10.5% CARB millions except for EPS Q Comparison of Estimates Company High Guidance High Low Average $ $ $ Revenue $ $ 24.3 $ EBITDA $ - $ 0.3 $ (1.0) (0.4) Adj. EPS $ (0.06) $ (0.08) $ (0.14) (0.11) Seq Revenue. Growth 8.4% 13.0% 10.6% 11.7% Seq EBITDA. Growth -32.1% % % Seq. EPS. Growth -64.7% 38.5% -7.7% 15.4% Y-o-Y Revenue. Growth 34.3% 40.1% 35.5% 37.6% Y-o-Y EBITDA. Growth 108.9% 70.6% 88.0% Y-o-Y EPS. Growth -94.7% 61.9% 33.3% 47.6% EBITDA Margin 1.2% -4.3% -1.7% CARB Full Year 2012 Comparison of Estimates millions except for EPS Company High Guidance High Low Average Revenue $ 83.7 $ 83.7 $ 83.1 $ EBITDA na $ (6.7) $ (6.7) $ (6.68) Adj. EPS $ (0.51) $ (0.64) $ (0.68) $ (0.67) Y-o-Y Revenue. Growth 38% 38% 37% 38% Y-o-Y EBITDA. Growth 63% 62% 63% Y-o-Y EPS. Growth 39% 24% 19% 20% EBITDA Margin -7.9% -8.1% -8.0% Page 1 of 8
2 Revenue, Sales, Gen & Admin $35,000 QUARTERLY REVENUE $000'S EST $28,000 $21,000 CAGR = 70.8% $21,573 $24,773 $14,000 $7,000 $3,313 All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management,LLC., nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any Revenue Rising Faster Than S,G&A = Operating Leverage $000'S REVENUE S,G&A Linear (REVENUE) Linear (S,G&A) $25,000 $21,573 $20,000 $18,547 $15,000 $10,000 $5,850 $5,000 $3,313 $9,062 $8,274 $12,843 $10,080 $12,837 All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, LLC, nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any GROSS MARGIN VS S,G & A EXPENSE RATIO 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% TOTAL GROSS MARGIN S,G&A Expense Ratio 78.42% LOSSES 70.33% 66.6% 67.1% PROFITS 60.4% 60.9% 59.50% 54.0% All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, LLC, nor any of its affiliates, agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any Page 2 of 8
3 Thousands Thousands OPERATING LEVERAGE: TRAILING 12 MONTH GROSS PROFIT VS SG&A LTM Change in Gross Profit LTM Change in S,G&A Change in LTM GP / LTM Change in S,G&A $35, $28,000 $21,000 $13,755 $14,000 $12,119 $7, $15,031 $16,215 $7, $18,691 $11,116 $9, (0.25) (0.50) (0.75) (1.00) Operating Leverage Ratio All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, Inc., nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any $300 $270 $240 $210 $180 $150 $120 $90 $60 $30 GROSS PROFIT PER EMPLOYEE VS S,G&A PER EMPLOYEE Total Employees LTM Gross Profit per Employee LTM S,G & A per Emp (000'S) 1,500 $ ,200 $184.7 $195.8 $ $189.4 $145.5 $172.0 $ Employee Headcount All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, Inc., nor any of its affiliates, agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any Selling, General & Administrative Ratio S,G&A Expense Ratio Linear (S,G&A Expense Ratio) 190% % 170% 150% % 130% 110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 88.42% 78.42% 80.07% 59.50% 54.0% All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, LLC., nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any Page 3 of 8
4 Thousands EBITDA % MARGIN QUARTERLY EBITDA & BOOKINGS ADJ. EBITDA EBITDA Linear (EBITDA) $5,000 $2,500 $(614) $(2,500) $(5,000) $(5,528) $(7,500) $(6,126) $(10,000) $(5,442) Bookings Adj EBITDA Linear (Bookings Adj EBITDA) $2,442 $3,199 $1,389 $443 $(534) $(2,878) $(4,662) $(4,569) All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, LLC., nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -50.3% -60.1% -24.9%-23.3% QUARTERLY EBITDA MARGIN $000'S -30.9% -24.6% 2.1% 6.6% All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, LLC, nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any $20,000 LTM BOOKINGS ADJ. EBITDA VS CAPEX Bookings Adj EBITDA Capex (000's) Linear (Bookings Adj EBITDA) Linear (Capex (000's)) $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $7,099 $10,652 $438 $14,771 $13,544 $13,338 $13,008 $4,421 $4,809 $(5,000) $(2,492) $(10,000) $(4,801) $(6,228) All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management,LLC, nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any Page 4 of 8
5 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT: Quarterly Actual Projected (000's) Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Revenue $ 11,556 $ 12,843 $ 14,399 $ 15,926 $ 17,344 $ 18,547 $ 20,247 $ 21,573 $ 23,883 Gross Profit $ 6,982 $ 8,178 $ 8,753 $ 9,817 $ 10,562 $ 11,762 $ 13,253 $ 14,368 $ 16,075 EBIT $ (4,967) $ (5,353) $ (4,662) $ (7,438) $ (6,101) $ (7,929) $ (4,223) $ (3,359) $ (2,527) EBITDA $ (2,878) $ (2,991) $ (4,662) $ (4,914) $ (3,400) $ (4,569) $ (534) $ 443 $ 1,314 Bookings Adj. EBITDA $ 1,330 $ 3,162 $ (811) $ (372) $ 2,442 $ 1,389 $ 1,350 $ 3,199 $ 6,561 EPS $ (0.44) $ (0.23) $ (0.32) $ (0.13) $ (0.09) $ (0.06) Gross Margin 60% 64% 61% 62% 61% 63% 65% 67% 67% EBIT Margin -43% -42% -32% -47% -35% -43% -21% -16% -11% EBITDA Margin -25% -23% -32% -31% -20% -25% -3% 2% 6% Bkgs Adj. EBITDA Margin 12% 25% -6% -2% 14% 7% 7% 15% 27% Cash $ 23,855 na $ 16,243 $ 71,662 $ 72,526 $ 68,103 $ 66,225 $ 66,805 $ 72,123 Total Assets $ 40,941 na $ 42,370 $ 96,987 $ 99,606 $ 98,347 $ 96,663 $ 96,875 $ 102,500 Deferred Revenue $ 38,722 $ 44,875 $ 49,312 $ 53,854 $ 59,696 $ 65,643 $ 67,527 $ 70,283 $ 75,530 L-T Funded Debt $ - na $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Owners Equity $ (75,623) na $ (84,501) $ 33,267 $ 27,602 $ 19,887 $ 16,956 $ 14,655 $ 13,142 Sequential % Change Revenue 12% 11% 12% 11% 9% 7% 9% 7% 11% Gross Profit 15% 17% 7% 12% 8% 11% 13% 8% 12% EBIT -26% 8% -13% 60% -18% 30% -47% -20% -25% EBITDA -45% 4% 56% 5% -31% 34% -88% -183% 197% Bookings Adj. EBITDA -197% 138% -126% -54% -756% -43% -3% 137% 105% EPS -49% 44% -61% -28% -36% Y-o-Y % Change Revenue 80% 68% 59% 54% 50% 44% 41% 35% 38% Gross Profit 98% 97% 72% 62% 51% 44% 51% 46% 52% EBITDA 369% -64% -14% -5% 18% 53% -89% -109% -139% Bookings Adj. EBITDA -56% -190% -70% -73% 84% -56% -266% -960% 169% Headcount Customers (k) 951 1,043 1,114 1,164 1,223 1,279 1,326 1,385 1,443 YoY % Growth 61% 49% 42% 34% 29% 23% 19% 19% 18% Page 5 of 8
6 Revenue & EBITDA Comparison with Other SaaS Companies The Street estimates for 2012 show impressive growth. CARB is attractively priced relative to its growth. It could double and still be at a discount to its peers. Software as a Service Providers: 2012 Estimates Source: Thomson Reuters & Co Financials 25-Oct-12 Financial Metrics (thousands) Name Symbol Revenue Rev Growth EBITDA EBITDA Margin EBITDA Growth Market Cap Enterprise Value Cash Carbonite, Inc - Street Est CARB $ 83,470 38% $ (6,680) -8% -50% $ 167,344 $ 100,539 $ 66,805 CORNERSTONE ON DEMAND CSOD $ 116,910 55% $ (7,980) -7% -28% $ 1,414,434 $ 1,329,434 $ 85,409 LOGMEIN LOGM $ 138,420 16% $ 32,170 23% 4% $ 589,140 $ 380,141 $ 208,999 NETSUITE N $ 304,140 29% $ 32,470 11% 27% $ 4,049,773 $ 3,871,321 $ 178,452 SPS Commerce SPSC $ 75,810 31% $ 8,130 11% 50% $ 531,723 $ 462,008 $ 69,715 VOCUS VOCS $ 173,010 51% $ 21,760 13% 20% $ 333,520 $ 380,439 $ 30,571 Composite $ 808,290 34% $ 86,550 11% 25% $ 6,918,590 $ 6,423,342 $ 573,146 AVERAGE $ 161,658 36% $ 17,310 10% 14% $ 1,383,718 $ 1,284,668 $ 114,629 Valuation Metrics Implied Value Price per (EV / Sales ) EV / (EV / EBITDA ) / (EV / Sales ) / % Price Change Street Target % Price Name Share EV / Sales / Rev Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth Rev Growth Potential Price Increase Carbonite, Inc - Street Est $ (15.05) nm $ % CORNERSTONE ON DEMAND $ (166.60) nm $ % $ % LOGMEIN $ $ % $ % NETSUITE $ $ % $ % SPS Commerce $ $ % $ % VOCUS $ $ % $ % Composite $ $ % $ % AVERAGE $ % $ % $ % $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 $(25,000) LTM REVENUE AND EBITDA VS ENTERPRISE VALUE $000'S $38,563 $(6,228) $120,738 $206,608 $60,512 $66,216 $210,413 Latest AIM Estimates REVENUE Bookings Adj EBITDA ENTERPRISE VALUE $85,140 $96,855 $4,421 $2,648 $13,008 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $(50,000) $(100,000) Enterprise Value All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, LLC., nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any Page 6 of 8
7 Enterprise Value / LTM Revenue Value Per Share Value Targets Unchanged The upside to our 2012 low band target is 94% from today s close. The upside to our mid-range target is 91%. The high band target of $15 is substantially less than the implied price if it were to be valued in accordance with the multiples of revenue paid for the comparables in the above table. The stock is down 41.2% YTD. It is down 22% from our launch price of $8.35. High Band Low Band Closing Price 12 Week Moving Average $25.00 Current Price: $6.53 $20.00 Weekly Stock Price History 2011 IPO to Present and 2012 Targets $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $13.00 $15.19 $12.94 $15.00 $15.00 $12.00 $9.08 $10.00 $10.00 $9.00 $ TRAILING 12 MONTH ENTERPRISE VALUE TO REVENUE VS SHARE ENT VALUE/ REV PRICE PROJ ENT VALUE/ Rev SHARE PRICE PROJECTED SHARE PRICE $ $ $ $ $ $15.00 $12.00 $9.00 $6.00 $3.00 Price Per Share - All information is believed to be accurate, but Aberdeen Investment Management, Inc., nor any of its agents, subsidiaries, or divisions, make any Bottom Line: I SCORE THE STOCK A 4 ON SCALE OF 1 TO 5, 5=BEST. Page 7 of 8
8 Save fits our model for a web centric company leveraging Moore s Law with verified scalability and an underpenetrated addressable market. They occupy a slot in our datasphere framework leveraging cloud computing dynamics to be a low cost, high value add provider of an essential service data back-up. The nascent penetration into the SMB marketplace and the advent of their mobile products and introduction into markets in China (and potentially India) provide CARB with large and long term growth opportunities. Jeb Terry Wk: Cell: Aberdeen Investment Management, LLC., ("Aberdeen") and its employees, officers, directors and affiliates may have positions in securities related to companies described or referred to herein. This memorandum does not constitute an offer or solicitation of any transaction in any securities of any companies referred to herein. Any recommendation contained herein may not be suitable for all investors. Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Investors must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein based on the legal, tax, and accounting considerations applicable to such investors and their own investment strategy. Page 8 of 8
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