Wind Project Finance in China

Transcription

1 Azure International Technology & Development (Beijing) Limited Wind Project Finance in China a quick snap-shot Sebastian Meyer Research Director

2 Development activity Summary 2.6 GW installed Accelerating development activity ~ 1 projects operating 1.4 GW in 26 alone ~8 GW of turbines ordered 163 ~35 separate installation orders ~2 active project dev Cos. ~ 3 parent Cos. represent 9% of 26 project installations and turbine orders 1MW 5 MW 2 MW 1 MW 1 MW Operating Wind Farm Under Planning/Construction Planned Capacity Source: Azure International Note: Activity summary as at 1H 26 REFF China March, 27 Slide 2 of 1

3 Accelerating development 4 GW by 22 = US$ 24bn debt & US$ 6bn equity New capacity: similar up-take to EU 15 & USA WTG orders 7.8GW (incl de-facto policy orders ) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, US data shifted 6-years EU data shifted 1-years 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 2, 5 1, Cumulative (MW) Cum. MW USA shifted 6-years EU shifted (1-years) China (hist & forecast) Source: GWEC, BTM for EU & US forecasts, Azure International forecast for China Installed dated orders undated small undated large Forecast Source: Azure International REFF China March, 27 Slide 3 of 1

4 Who will finance? The status quo Broad power sector interest Established players have balance sheets, relationships with banks, and can get 8% debt with 2% equity financing So far very little private or foreign equity or foreign institutional lending although project sponsors and banks are interested Leading wind players according to development activity Equity weighted cap & Equity owned cap Equity owned cap Equity weighted near-term development YE25 YE26 cap & orders (27~215) Rank Co. (kw) Co. (kw) Co. (kw) Co. (kw) 1 Longyuan 332 Longyuan 7 Longyuan 2,715 Longyuan 2,388 2 State Grid 273 State Grid 366 Huaneng 1,115 Huaneng 1,356 3 Ningxia Power 112 Datang 316 Shenhua 833 Datang 1,319 4 Datang 77 Ningxia Power 157 Datang 819 Shenhua 1,7 5 Huaneng 63 CECIC 129 Huadian 68 Shandong Luneng 1,19 6 Guangdong Yudean 52 Shenhua 124 Guangdong Nuclear 6 Guangdong Nuclear Shenhua 5 Huaneng 14 Ningxia Power 48 Huadian Inner Mongolia Power 44 Guangdong Yudean 1 State Grid 39 CECIC HLJ Huafu 41 HLJ Huafu 71 CPI 3 State Grid Jilin Wind Power 34 HK Construction 58 CECIC 274 Ningxia Power 381 total: 1,78 2,125 8,26 9,822 percent of total activity: 85% 8% 79% 64% Source: Azure International Note: Big 5 domestic power producers highlighted in yellow REFF China March, 27 Slide 4 of 1

5 Debt financing Key trends Period of transition towards commercial lending Low domestic interest rates (6.38%); no shortage of liquidity Relationship banking Risk adverse / look for name and balance sheet De-centralized geographic organizations lead to limited product specialization Few examples of limited recourse lending (concessions, 1 2 others) WTO opening of banking sector may be opportunity for international specialists 26 wind cap may have increased by 1.4GW, but overall power generation increased by 15GW Lending to wind is a small niche within power sector lending Big 5 cap expansion in 26 installed installed 26 total 26 wind wind Genco (MW) equity (MW) (% total) Guodian Group 9, % Huaneng 13, % Huadian 13,51 2.1% Datang 12, % CPI 4,178.% Estimated total costs for new generating capacity (Thermal US$ 5/kW, Hydro US$ 75/kW, Wind US$ 1/kW) installed installed 26 total 26 wind wind Developer (US$ Bn) (US$ M) (% total) Guodian Group % Huaneng % Huadian % Datang % CPI 2.4..% Estimated total borrowings by Big 5 for 26 cap expansion (assuming 8% debt for all projects) Loans assoc. Loans assoc. 26 wind 26 cap. Installed cap. Installed wind Developer (US$ Bn) (US$ M) (% total) Guodian Group % Huaneng % Huadian % Datang % CPI 1.9..% Source: Company data, Azure International REFF China March, 27 Slide 5 of 1

6 Debt financing Short history of domestic lending to wind Concessionary financing for large-scale wind Financing for estimated spending on new installations (estimated values at constant US$ 1M/MW) 1,6 Cumulative loan support: US$ 178M 1,4 1,2 KFW (Germany) 17% World Bank 9% 1, Danida (Denmark) 29% National Debt (China) 31% DEG (Germany) 5% FAD Loan (Spain) 8% Eldorado (Germany) 1% (US$ M) Commercial loan financed Gov't-related debt Equity finance (33% max.) Soft loans Grants Equity finance (2% min.) Note: Cumulative grants of US$ 33M also identified Source: Data from lending institutions Source: Azure International estimates REFF China March, 27 Slide 6 of 1

7 Domestic vs. foreign invested projects Analysis: 17 UNFCCC Registered CDM projects Model variables for comparison (sample cap. weighted ave) Full-load hours (hrs) 2,271 Feed-in tarriff (RMB/kWh inc. VAT).5473 Capital costs (RMB/kW) 9,219 Emission factor (tce/mwh).9431 Domestic financing Banking: Relationships Interest rate: 6.38% Gearing: up to 8% debt CDM (adds approx RMB.6/kWh) International financing Banking: Commercial negotiation risk appropriation documentation (expertise: technical, legal and financial) Interest rate: Commercial negotiation Gearing: maximum 67% debt No CDM Tax: 33% unifying to 25% Tax: 15% unifying to 25% Project IRR: 1% Project IRR: 9% Equity IRR: 14% Equity IRR: 1% < < < < Full-load hours 8, 8,5 9, 9,5 1, 1,5 11, 11,5.8 Feed-in tariff Capital costs Emission factor.15.2 REFF China March, 27 Slide 7 of 1

8 Equity financing Projects always worth more to domestic owners Project & Equity Project IRRs & based equity on IRRs 17 project (leverage sample & CDM) (Leverage & CDM) 35% 3% Common domestic debt % Max. allowed debt % for FIE 25% 2% 15%?-Expected return-? Best FIE equity IRR 17% for sample 1% 5%?-Actual return-? Ave. reported project IRR (7%, 9%) IRR % (%) 82% 81% 8% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 74% 73% 72% 71% 7% 69% 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 6% Debt % in financing max equity IRR with CDM Cap weighted ave equity IRR (CDM) Cap weighted ave equity IRR Cap weighted ave project IRR (CDM) Cap weighted ave project IRR Source: Azure International analysis REFF China March, 27 Slide 8 of 1

9 Conclusions Where are the opportunities for international capital? Local players have advantages, and most equity & debt will come from domestic power companies & banks Niches for experienced international developers & banks Large or technically difficult projects Regions encouraging foreign investment Go west Innovative financing structures Early-stage risk capital Minority partnership REFF China March, 27 Slide 9 of 1

10 Azure International Contact information Sebastian Meyer Research Director Tel: Fax: Welcome to visit us at our new office: Oriental Kenzo Suite H, Office Tower, 6 th Floor 48, Dongzhimen Wai Street 127 Dong Cheng District, Beijing PR China REFF China March, 27 Slide 1 of 1