Energiewende. Drivers and Enablers for German Offshore Wind. Dr. Martin Schöpe

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1 Energiewende Drivers and Enablers for German Offshore Wind Dr. Martin Schöpe BMWi Head of Unit IIA1 International Cooperation on Energy Hamburg, 25 September Referent 1

2 Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2016, UBA 2018, AGEB 2018 The Energiewende is Germany s long-term energy and climate strategy Achieved Climate % greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990) 27.6% (2016) to to Renewable Energy % gross electricity consumption % gross final energy consumption 36.2% 36% 14.8% (2016) to to Primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) -6.0% -6% Energy Efficiency Final energy productivity (vs. 2008) Primary energy demand in buildings (vs. 2008) 1.1% p.a. (2016) -15.9% (2015) 4,380 PJ (2008) +2.1% p.a. ( ) Final energy consumption in transport (vs. 2005) +1.3% (2015) to to -20 9/24/2018 2

3 Source: IRENA 2018 The largest offshore wind markets by 2017 European countries, and recently China, have the most relevant experience Installed capacity of offshore wind by country /24/2018 3

4 Source: Ecofys based on Stiftung Offshore Windenergie 2018, AGEB 2017, EEG 2017 Offshore wind capacities in the North and Baltic Seas continue to expand German territory and EEZ Construction zone 12 sea mile border/eez Completely feeding-in Partially feeding-in Construction in progress FID Port service Port components Port base Contract awarded Offshore Wind Figures for Germany In operation ( ) 5,387 MW Electricity generation in 2017* 17.9 TWh Targets GW GW 9/24/ *Vorläufige Angabe

5 Normalized feed-in Annual operating hours of onshore and offshore wind parks with and without reduced feed-in by 10% Possible feed-in of an offshore wind park Reduced feed-in of an offshore wind park Possible feed-in of an onshore wind park Reduced feed-in of an onshore wind park Hours of the year 9/24/2018 5

6 Key data on offshore wind s forecast reliability Full-load hours offshore wind (h) Current study Previous study (WES 2013) 4,660 4,800 Operating hours (h) 8,700 8,000 Days with electricity generation (d) Frequency of change in power of less than 10 percent (%) /24/2018 6

7 Source: Ecofys based on EEG 2017 A transitional system for offshore wind auctions is in place before the central model is introduced in 2021 Bidders Volume Deadline Guarantees Transitional system: Only pre-developed projects are eligible to participate 3,100 MW over 2 rounds in April 207 and 2018 Planned commissioning: /kw Penalty for failure to reach financial closure: 30 /kw Central Danish model: from 2021 Project sites are only pre-developed by the BSH, Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency MW annually Planned commissioning: from 2026 onwards 200 /kw 9/24/2018 7

8 Source: Ecofys based on EEG 2017, BNetzA 2018 Subsidies for some winning projects have gone down as low as zero in the offshore auctions Auction round Capacity awarded Lowest bid awarded Highest bid awarded Realization deadline April MW 0 Cent/kWh 6.0 Cent/kWh April MW 0 Cent/kWh 9.8 Cent/kWh * * Projects in the Baltic Sea to be realized in 2021/ /24/2018 8

9 Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BNetzA 2018, PV Magazine, Bloomberg Auction results worldwide highlight rapidly declining costs for renewables USA 2.7 Mexico The Netherlands* 0** 7.4 UK* Germany* ** Morocco 2.5 Denmark* 1.9** 5.5 Jordan 6.0 UAE 2.4 Saudi Arabia 4.1 India Australia Peru Chile 4.5 Brazil 3.0 Zambia South Africa Wind onshore Wind offshore Solar ** Value corresponds to the subsidy paid on top of the market price Lowest awarded bids All prices in US ct/kwh at 1.1 USD/EUR * Countries with a feed-in premium (instead of a feed-in tariff / PPA)

10 Source: Global Energy Transformation: A roadmap to 2050, IRENA 2018 The case for offshore wind Decarbonization of energy sector By 2050 offshore wind would reach 521 GW High capacity factors Diversify energy security Installed Capacity Wind Energy GW 520 GW 19 GW 9/24/

11 Market expansion in the Offshore Wind Sector Europe Asia Europe may continue to lead Asia will closely follow Rest of the world 9/24/

12 Thank you for your attention Dr. Martin Schöpe Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie Referat IIA1 Scharnhorststr Berlin Dr. Martin Schöpe Referent 12

13 Sources: BMWi 2017, DONG 2017, EnBW 2017 Awarded projects in the first offshore wind auction 2017 Project Owner Planned installed capacity (MW) Gode Wind 3 DONG (since Nov Ørsted) Planned commissioning Auction price* ( /MWh) OWP West DONG Borkum Riffgrund DONG He Dreiht EnBW * Auction price refers to the reference value ( anzulegender Wert ) bidders offer, and has two components: monthly average market revenues and the resulting market premium 9/24/

14 Market expansion Forecasted global annual installed and operating capacity of offshore wind, /24/

15 : Innovation will push the market 9/24/

16 : Innovation has made the difference Wind farm design Turbines Installation Electrical interconnection 9/24/

17 together with standardization Standards are an important instrument for the globalization of offshore wind Benefits: reduce costs, mitigate technical risks, attract investment, gain public acceptance and set expectations by all stakeholders Markets in China, Denmark, Germany and the UK have adapted offshore wind standards to meet local needs, customizing their legislation, certification requirements and regulatory measures. 9/24/

18 Source: Nurturing offshore wind markets: Good practices for international standardization, IRENA 2018 Efforts in all areas are needed to scale up offshore wind Standards incorporating local weather conditions Offshore wind standards focused on components and equipment tailored to industry needs Innovation in financial instruments, enabling technologies, policies and regulations is essential 9/24/

19 Power production from Offshore Wind in Germany has remained at constant high levels in the first half of /24/