Fairfax / REA Group. No housing boom here. A$0.81 Valuation A$ Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ month TSR % +16.0
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- Eileen Douglas
- 5 years ago
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1 AUSTRALIA FXJ AU Price (at 05:11, 03 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$0.81 Valuation A$ Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ month TSR % Volatility Index Low/Medium Market cap A$m 1, day avg turnover A$m 6.6 Number shares on issue m Investment fundamentals 2,299 Year end 30 Jun 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue m 1, , , ,733.3 EBIT m Reported profit m Adjusted profit m Gross cashflow m CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x REA AU Price (at 05:11, 03 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$49.35 Valuation A$ DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ month TSR % Volatility Index Low Market cap A$m 6, day avg turnover A$m 15.6 Number shares on issue m Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue m EBIT m Reported profit m Adjusted profit m Gross cashflow m CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2016 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 3 November 2016 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited No housing boom here Event We review the outlook for Fairfax and REA Group in the context of weak listing volumes and Fairfax s AGM trading update. Impact Listing volumes under pressure: The Fairfax AGM trading update highlights the impact from softer volumes across the industry, with Sydney and Melbourne new listing volumes down 18% and 5%, respectively. While this is clearly a negative, the fact that Domain can grow revenues (digital +11% FYTD) in such an environment and while clearance rates are abnormally high highlights the strength of the growth being achieved in yield (via mix shift and price), plus opportunities available in non-core markets (such as Queensland) and also adjacencies. It should be a similar story for REA Group when it gives a quarterly update next Tuesday. Domestic revenues for REA will benefit to some extent relative to Domain from its greater diversity away from Sydney/Melbourne markets, as well as a stronger mix shift benefit given the tail-end benefits of its Premiere All cycle (with some agents still being brought onto this plan structure in the September quarter last year). On the flipside, we estimate that weighted average price increases by REA will be less than those of Domain, and it will not benefit from geographic expansion in the same way. Overall, we have revisited our estimates for REA Group, and see 1H17 Domestic revenue and EBITDA coming in at 11.5% and 8.6%, respectively. Will volumes bounce back next year? A key focus for investors is what element of the current softness in listing volumes will return to the market next year. Clearly, there are one-off/cyclical factors at play in the current period, with Fairfax s management citing changes to super caps and the long Federal Election campaign as contributors. Against that, management did acknowledge that part of the decline in volumes was related to the strength of last spring. This will likely temper the extent of any bounce back next spring. In addition, the significant recent growth in house prices in Sydney and Melbourne may structurally slow transaction volumes to some extent given the challenge this presents for up-sizers and first home buyers. Overall, we would expect a solid volume rebound in the first half of FY18, but not a complete reversal of this year's volume declines. Outlook Fairfax Retain Outperform with 90cps target price (down 15cps): The slowdown in listing volumes puts temporary brakes on Fairfax's key earnings growth driver in Domain, which leaves Group earnings under pressure this year. Some of this should be recaptured in FY18, and we remain optimistic on the longer-term outlook for Domain in particular. REA Group Upgrade to Outperform with $56/sh target price (down $2/sh): We remain positive on the outlook for Real Estate Marketplace businesses (refer Hot Property!, 6 July 2016). While cyclical pressures will drive slowing growth rates this year, we do see strong medium-term growth from its core asset, and valuations more attractive following the recent sell-off. Please refer to page 9 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 Fairfax trading update Fairfax provided a FYTD trading update at its AGM: Group: Revenues down 6-7%, compared with declines of 8-9% for the first five weeks of FY17 trading; Domain: Revenue up 2%. Digital revenue up 11%, compared with +10% for the first five weeks of trading. Domain 1H17 EBITDA likely to be slightly below pcp due to listings softness and continued investment; Metro media: Revenues down ~8%; ACM: Revenues down ~10%; NZ: Revenues down ~4% including FX impact; Radio: Revenues down ~1%; Opex: Cost saving initiatives are ongoing across the Group. Soft operating trends across the Group From a trading perspective, the weakness in segment trends is not a surprise given ongoing softness in housing volumes and also in the context of its August trading update. Fairfax has a strong track record of pro-actively managing its cost base to counter softer revenue trends in Publishing, and we would expect this to continue. From a Domain perspective, the update confirms a weak first half outlook While current conditions are clearly a negative, the fact that Domain can grow revenues in an environment where new listings are down in its key Melbourne and Sydney markets by 5% and 18%, respectively, and clearance rates are abnormally high does highlight the strength of the growth being achieved in yield (via mix shift and price) plus opportunities available in non-core markets (such as Queensland) and also adjacencies. Fig 1 New listing volumes - Sydney % ch YoY Fig 2 New listing volumes - Melbourne % ch YoY 0% -5% -10% -15% -2.7% -8.4% -5.8% Listings remained weak despite moderation in declines in Sep quarter 5% 0% -5% 5.6% 3.0% -1.1% Stabilisation during weak Sep quarter -2.2% -20% -16.1% -25% -20.9% -30% -26.9% -29.8% -35% Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 New listings -10% -7.8% -15% -13.8% -15.9% -20% Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 New listings Source: CoreLogic, Macquarie Research, November 2016 Source: CoreLogic, Macquarie Research, November November
3 Fig 3 New listing volumes National (capital cities) % ch YoY 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -0.2% 0.9% 1.3% -15.1% Stabilisation during weak Sep quarter -6.8% -16% -13.9% Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 New listings Combined national total of all capital cities. Source: CoreLogic, Macquarie Research, November % Fig 4 New listing volumes National (states) % ch YoY 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -2.2% 2.5% 1.9% Stabilisation during weak Sep quarter -10.9% -4.7% -16% -13.9% Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 New listings Combined national total of all states. Source: CoreLogic, Macquarie Research, November % In addition, the update for Domain EBITDA to be "slightly below prior year" despite only achieving benign revenue growth does indicate that Domain is managing its cost base to some extent in this environment. This is particularly the case in Print, where we expect ongoing cost rationalisation to sustain. Fig 5 Domain earnings summary $m FY15 FY16 1H17e 2H17e FY17e FY18e Print revenue % ch vs pcp 68.9% 46.2% -15.0% -10.6% -13.0% -10.0% Digital revenue % ch vs pcp 36.5% 26.7% 12.5% 17.6% 15.0% 20.0% Total revenue % ch vs pcp 45.1% 32.8% 2.7% 8.4% 5.5% 11.6% Print opex % ch vs pcp 66.8% 64.5% -9.1% -12.7% -10.8% -5.8% Digital opex % ch vs pcp 36.1% 11.3% 17.9% 17.3% 17.6% 7.2% Total opex % ch vs pcp 44.7% 28.4% 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% 2.7% Print EBITDA % ch vs pcp 72.9% 13.7% -30.0% -5.3% -18.7% -21.7% Digital EBITDA % ch vs pcp 37.1% 50.3% 7.2% 18.0% 12.1% 35.1% Total EBITDA % ch vs pcp 45.8% 39.7% -1.5% 12.4% 4.8% 24.7% EBITDA margin 38.5% 40.5% 40.9% 39.5% 40.3% 45.0% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2016 Earnings adjustments We have adjusted our numbers to reflect year to date trading trends. The largest adjustment is from Domain, which is the primary driver of EBITDA downgrades for the Group for FY17-18 of 6.4% and 5.0%, respectively. These are offset by below-the-line modelling adjustments (to D&A), driving modest EPS upgrades (of 1-2%). Target price down 15cps to 90cps We have pulled back our valuation to reflect softer FY17 earnings, and also in part to reflect the contraction in multiples being applied to growth stocks in the market. Our valuation does imply a still-healthy 17x EBITDA multiple on the Domain digital business, which incorporates our expectation for strong growth heading into FY18. 3 November
4 Fig 6 FXJ SOTP valuation FY17e EBITDA Multiple Valuation ($m) Metro Australia Publishing x 24.3 Events x 72.0 Transaction/Digital x Total Metro Group x Domain Digital x Domain Print x Domain Total x Regional Media x New Zealand x Broadcasting x Corporate x Total Enterprise x Net debt Adjustments Associates 50.0 Equity value ($m) Equity value ($/sh) 0.88 Target price 0.90 Source: Macquarie Research, November 2016 REA Group Upgrading to Outperform We have adjusted our earnings estimates for REA s Domestic business, driving EPS downgrades for the Group in FY17-19 of 5.7%, 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively. Accordingly, our DCF-based target price reduces by $2/sh to $56/sh. As discussed, we remain positive on the outlook for Real Estate Marketplace businesses (refer Hot Property!, 6 July 2016). While cyclical pressures will drive slowing growth rates this year, we do see strong medium-term growth from its core Domestic asset, and valuations more attractive following the recent sell-off. REA Group will give a September quarter trading update on Tuesday, 8 November. Fig 7 REA Domestic earnings summary $m FY15 FY16e 1H17e 2H17e FY17e FY18e Category ($m) Listing depth revenue % ch vs pcp 46.4% 26.1% 13.0% 21.0% 16.7% 15.4% Subscription revenue % ch vs pcp -34.0% -20.2% -2.0% -6.2% -4.1% 15.4% Media display % ch vs pcp 21.7% 14.8% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% Other % ch vs pcp -17.4% 19.8% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% Total revenue % ch vs pcp 20.5% 17.4% 11.5% 16.7% 14.0% 14.6% Expenses % ch vs pcp 15.6% 13.3% 17.1% 7.1% 11.9% 7.9% EBITDA ($m) % ch vs pcp 24.0% 20.1% 8.6% 23.4% 15.3% 18.5% EBITDA margin 60.9% 62.3% 64.0% 62.0% 63.0% 65.2% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November November
5 FXJ & REA trading at discounts on a PE Rel basis From a PE Rel perspective, both FXJ and REA are trading at discounts to their 36-month rolling average against the ASX 200 Industrials. Fig 8 PE Absolute FXJ & ASX 200 Industrials PER 20x 18x 16x 14x 12x 10x 8x 6x 4x 2x 0x Fig 9 PE Rel FXJ vs. ASX 200 Industrials PE Rel vs ASX 200 Industrials 1.2x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x 0.4x 0.2x 0.0x FXJ-AU ASX 200 Industrials FXJ-AU Rolling 36M Mean Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2016 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2016 Fig 10 PE Absolute REA & ASX 200 Industrials PER 45x 40x 35x 30x 25x 20x 15x 10x 5x 0x Fig 11 PE Rel REA vs. ASX 200 Industrials PE Rel vs ASX 200 Industrials 2.5x 2.0x 1.5x 1.0x 0.5x 0.0x REA-AU ASX 200 Industrials REA-AU Rolling 36M Mean Source FactSet, Macquarie Research, November 2016 Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, November November
6 Fig 12 A/NZ media comps Ticker Market Macq Share Target Adj EV/EBITDA PER Div Yield Cap (lcy, m) Recc. Price (lcy) Price (lcy) FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 FY1 FY2 TV/Radio Seven West Media SWM $1,032 Neutral $0.69 $ x 5.5x 6.2x 6.6x 9.6% 9.1% Nine Entertainment Co NEC $755 Neutral $0.91 $ x 4.3x 7.5x 7.1x 12.2% 12.2% TEN Network Holdings TEN $378 Neutral $1.02 $ x -44.5x -16.7x -11.9x 0.0% 0.0% Southern Cross Media SXL $1,084 Neutral $1.41 $ x 7.8x 11.8x 11.5x 5.9% 6.1% APN News & Media APN $774 Outperform $2.65 $ x 7.3x 13.4x 11.6x 0.0% 3.4% Prime Media Group PRT $104 Neutral $0.29 $ x 2.8x 3.8x 4.2x 13.3% 12.0% Sky Television SKT $1,689 Neutral $4.34 $ x 6.4x 14.3x 13.0x 6.9% 6.9% Average: TV/Radio (ex-ten) 6.1x 5.7x 9.5x 9.0x 8.0% 8.3% Publishing/Diversified News Corp (US) NWSA $6,878 Outperform $11.84 $ x 5.0x 23.7x 20.0x 1.7% 1.7% Fairfax Media FXJ $1,782 Outperform $0.78 $ x 6.3x 13.1x 12.3x 5.1% 5.1% Average: Publishing/Diversified 6.3x 5.7x 18.4x 16.2x 3.4% 3.4% Internet SEEK Limited SEK $4,850 Outperform $14.08 $ x 12.1x 24.2x 20.7x 2.9% 3.4% Carsales CAR $2,447 Outperform $10.16 $ x 13.2x 20.8x 19.2x 4.0% 4.3% REA Group REA $6,256 Outperform $47.50 $ x 13.4x 26.0x 20.7x 1.9% 2.4% TradeMe TME $1,831 Neutral $4.61 $ x 11.5x 19.8x 18.0x 4.0% 4.4% Average: Internet 14.3x 12.5x 22.7x 19.6x 3.2% 3.6% Out of home ooh!media OML $645 Outperform $4.22 $ x 8.4x 16.7x 14.1x 2.5% 3.6% APN Outdoor* APO $775 n/a $4.68 n/a 10.4x 8.9x 15.8x 13.9x 3.5% 4.1% Average: Out of home 10.3x 8.7x 16.3x 14.0x 3.0% 3.8% Average - A/NZ Media (ex-ten) 9.1x 8.1x 15.5x 13.8x 5.3% 5.6% Median - A/NZ Media (ex-ten) 8.6x 7.5x 15.1x 13.4x 4.0% 4.4% *APN Outdoor not covered by Macquarie; data based on Bloomberg consensus. Source: Macquarie Research, Bloomberg, share prices at close 3 November November
7 Fairfax Media (FXJ) $0.78 Interim 1H16 2H16 1H17e 2H17e Full year FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Revenue $m Revenue $m 1, , , ,733.3 Opex $m Opex $m 1, , , ,458.5 EBITDA $m EBITDA $m Depreciation $m Depreciation $m Amortisation $m Amortisation $m D&A $m D&A $m EBIT $m EBIT $m Associates $m Associates $m EBIT incl. assoc $m EBIT incl. assoc $m Net Interest Expense $m Net Interest Expense $m Pre-Tax Profit $m Pre-Tax Profit $m Tax Expense $m Tax Expense $m Net Profit $m Net Profit $m Minority Interests $m Minority Interests $m Adjusted Earnings $m Adjusted Earnings $m NRIs (net of tax) $m NRIs (net of tax) $m -1, Reported Earnings $m Reported Earnings $m EPS (Adj/dil) cps EPS (Adj/dil) cps EPS Grow th % (3.3%) (10.6%) 1.8% 8.1% EPS Grow th % (9.0%) 7.0% 6.4% 3.4% DPS cps DPS cps Dividend yield % 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Dividend yield % 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Payout ratio (adj) % 58.7% 87.3% 57.6% 80.7% Payout ratio (adj) % 71.9% 67.3% 63.2% 61.1% FCF/sh cps FCF/sh cps FCFE yield (annualised) % 4.1% (0.5%) 11.9% 10.6% FCFE yield (annualised) % 1.8% 11.2% 8.2% 8.4% EBITDA margin % 16.8% 14.0% 16.3% 13.4% EBITDA margin % 15.5% 14.9% 15.6% 15.9% EBIT margin % 13.2% 10.0% 13.6% 10.6% EBIT margin % 11.6% 12.1% 12.8% 13.0% EBITDA grow th % 1.1% (6.0%) (8.0%) (6.3%) EBITDA grow th % (2.1%) (7.2%) 3.0% 1.5% EBIT Grow th % 0.5% (12.0%) (2.7%) 4.0% EBIT Grow th % (5.0%) 0.1% 3.9% 1.9% Profit and Loss Ratios FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Cashflow Analysis FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Revenue grow th % (1.2%) (3.9%) (1.4%) (0.2%) EBITDA $m % of EBITDA in 1H % 56.9% 56.4% 55.9% 55.4% Ch in Working Capital $m 37.9 (64.0) (0.6) 0.0 Effective Tax Rate % 29.7% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% Net Interest Paid $m (0.7) PER (adj) x Tax Paid $m EV/EBIT x Other $m (52.9) EV/EBITDA x Operating Cashflow $m EV/Sales x Acquisitions $m (46.1) Capex $m (95.0) (60.0) (60.0) (60.0) Balance Sheet Ratios FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Asset Sales $m Other $m (31.6) ROE % 8.5% 12.9% 13.2% 13.0% Investing Cashflow $m (104.1) (60.0) (60.0) (60.0) ROFE % 18.8% 20.0% 20.8% 21.2% Dividends Paid $m (93.5) (92.0) (92.0) (92.0) ROA % 10.5% 14.1% 15.1% 15.4% Equity movements $m (73.9) Net Debt (pro-forma) $m Debt movements $m (109.9) (109.6) (54.6) (4.5) Net Debt/Equity x Other $m (9.2) Net Debt/EBITDA x Financing Cashflow $m (286.4) (201.6) (146.6) (96.4) Interest Cover (EBIT) x EFPOWA m Net Cashflow $m (262.9) Balance Sheet FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Metro Media (ex Domain) $m Cash $m Domain $m Receivables $m Metro Media (total) $m Inventories $m ACM (Regional Media) $m Investments $m NZ Media $m PP&E $m Radio $m Intangibles $m Corporate $m Other Assets $m Total sales revenue $m 1, , , ,352.2 Total Assets $m 1, , , ,601.9 Payables $m Short Term Debt $m Long Term Debt $m Snapshot Current Provisions $m Current price $ 0.78 Other Liabilities $m EFPOWA # 2,383.4 Total Liabilities $m Market cap $m 1,859.0 Shareholders Funds $m , ,067.6 Net debt $m 88.7 Minority Interests $m EV $m 1,947.8 Shaereholder Equity $m 1, , , ,190.8 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November November
8 REA Group (REA) $47.50 Interim 1H16 2H16 1H17e 2H17e Full year FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Revenue $m Revenue $m Opex $m Opex $m EBITDA $m EBITDA $m D&A $m D&A $m EBIT $m EBIT $m Associates $m Associates $m EBIT incl. assoc $m EBIT incl. assoc $m Net Interest Expense $m Net Interest Expense $m Pre-Tax Profit $m Pre-Tax Profit $m Tax Expense $m Tax Expense $m Net Profit $m Net Profit $m Minority Interests $m Minority Interests $m Adjusted Earnings $m Adjusted Earnings $m NRIs (net of tax) $m NRIs (net of tax) $m Reported Earnings $m Reported Earnings $m EPS (Adj/dil) cps EPS (Adj/dil) cps EPS Grow th % 21.9% 1.9% 8.2% 35.8% EPS Grow th % 12.5% 20.0% 25.8% 13.2% DPS cps DPS cps Payout ratio (adj) % 41.2% 70.1% 50.0% 50.0% Payout ratio (adj) % 53.5% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% FCFE/sh cps FCFE/sh cps FCFE yield (annualised) % 3.2% 2.6% 1.3% 3.7% FCFE yield (annualised) % 2.9% 2.5% 4.8% 4.6% EBITDA margin % 59.0% 51.3% 55.1% 52.7% EBITDA margin % 55.2% 53.9% 56.3% 57.1% EBIT margin % 54.0% 45.2% 50.2% 47.7% EBIT margin % 49.6% 49.0% 52.0% 53.0% EBITDA grow th % 28.6% 14.2% 12.3% 20.6% EBITDA grow th % 21.5% 16.2% 20.6% 10.6% EBIT Grow th % 29.5% 11.6% 11.9% 23.7% EBIT Grow th % 20.7% 17.3% 22.5% 11.3% Key assumptions (AUS) 1H16 2H16 1H17e 2H17e Key assumptions FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e ARPA ($/month) $ 3,655 3,238 3,875 3,626 ARPA ($/month) $ 3,355 3,722 4,168 4,377 Paying agents # 10,340 10,720 10,651 11,042 Paying agents # 10,720 11,042 11,373 11,715 Total agent revenues $m Total agent revenues $m % Depth agent revenues % 88.7% 87.5% 90.0% 90.0% % Depth agent revenues % 88.1% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% Profit and Loss Ratios FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Cashflow Analysis FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Revenue Grow th % 20.4% 18.8% 15.5% 9.2% EBITDA $m % of EBITDA in 1H % 53.5% 51.7% 52.0% 52.2% Ch in Working Capital $m (19.1) (84.0) (0.2) (46.4) Effective Tax Rate % 26.6% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Net Interest Paid $m (3.3) (16.7) (14.8) (11.0) PER (adj) x Tax Paid $m (100.9) (103.4) (129.8) (147.0) EV/EBIT x Other $m (2.7) EV/EBITDA x Operating Cashflow $m EV/Sales x Acquisitions $m (528.9) - (98.4) - Capex $m (40.0) (41.2) (42.5) (43.7) Balance Sheet Ratios FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Asset Sales $m Other $m - (5.0) (1.2) 1.1 ROE % 31.5% 31.1% 33.0% 31.4% Investing Cashflow $m (568.9) (46.2) (142.0) (42.6) ROFE % 28.9% 31.3% 35.3% 37.7% Dividends Paid $m (100.8) (122.2) (137.1) (161.9) ROA % 20.6% 17.6% 21.1% 22.8% Equity movements $m Net Debt $m Debt movements $m (31.0) (62.6) (129.4) Net Debt/Equity x Other $m (2.0) Net Debt/EBITDA x Financing Cashflow $m (153.2) (199.6) (291.3) Interest Cover (EBIT) x EFPOWA m Net Cashflow $m Divisional estimates FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Balance Sheet FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Australia $m Cash $m Europe $m Receivables $m Asia $m Inventories $m Total revenue $m Investments $m PP&E $m Australia $m Intangibles $m Europe $m Other Assets $m Asia $m Total Assets $m 1, , , ,642.4 Corporate $m Payables $m Total EBITDA $m Short Term Debt $m Long Term Debt $m Snapshot Current Provisions $m Current price $ Other Liabilities $m EFPOWA # Total Liabilities $m Market cap $m 6,256.4 Shareholders Funds $m , ,181.1 Net debt $m Minority Interests $m EV $m 6,621.9 Shaereholder Equity $m , ,181.7 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November November
9 This publication was disseminated on 03 November 2016 at 11:10 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 September 2016 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 47.26% 55.50% 38.46% 45.47% 59.09% 48.21% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.20% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 38.01% 29.31% 42.86% 48.77% 37.88% 36.79% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.25% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 14.73% 15.19% 18.68% 5.76% 3.03% 15.00% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. 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Southern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationPlatinum Asset Management
AUSTRALIA PTM AU Price (at 06:10, 11 Jul 2016 GMT) Neutral A$5.52 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 5.19 12-month target A$ 5.36 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationSG Fleet Group. Another UK acquisition. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 08:26, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.23 Valuation - PER A$ 3.96-4.22 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +41.0 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationIOOF. Positive flows in 1Q17. FUM and Net Flows for September Qtr Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Oct 2016.
AUSTRALIA IFL AU Price (at 06:35, 26 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$8.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 8.74 12-month target A$ 9.00 12-month TSR % +14.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationSG Fleet Group % growth in FY17. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Results and contract wins.
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 07:57, 27 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.85 Valuation - PER A$ 3.92-4.18 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationChallenger. Normalised margin trends expected to decline. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
1H13E 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E AUSTRALIA CGF AU Price (at CLOSE#, 20 Aug 2012) Outperform A$3.76 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.57 12-month TSR % +26.4 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.57
More informationQBE Insurance. QBE ANZ performance: LMI vs. Excl. LMI (A$m) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 16. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA QBE AU Price (at 10:44, 27 Apr 2016 GMT) Neutral A$11.19 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 11.34 12-month target A$ 12.00 12-month TSR % +12.7 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationOil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationAussie Macro Moment. Budget 16/17 careful consolidation AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA Lower deficits still in train, arriving late - - - /5 /7-5 -5 Jun-9 Jun- Jun Jun-8 Jun Jun Jun- Revenue recovery remains sluggish 7 5 Australian Federal : Underlying Balance ( of GDP) 5/ Spending
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationAustralian Banks. Money Talks vertically challenged AUSTRALIA. Inside. Majors average short positions and banks index
Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun- Dec- AUSTRALIA Repricing generally follows an election s Nov Aug 1 Sep 1 1-1 Source: RBA, Macquarie Research,
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationNine Entertainment Co.
AUSTRALIA NEC AU Price (at 06:47, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.03 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.2%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 2.41 12-month target A$ 2.25 12-month TSR % +15.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Event Valuation A$ month target A$ 5.20
AUSTRALIA VOC AU Price (at 05:10, 22 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$4.81 Valuation A$ 5.02 - DCF (WACC 7.7%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.0%) 12-month target A$ 5.20 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationBuilders Barometer. Rising damp AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
Jan 00 Mar 01 May 02 Jul 03 Sep 04 Nov 05 Jan 07 Mar 08 May 09 Jul 10 Sep 11 Nov 12 Jan 14 Mar 15 May 16 AUSTRALIA Rising damp Event The ABS released February 2017 building approvals data. Seasonallyadjusted,
More informationTatts Group. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Underperform on valuation grounds.
AUSTRALIA TTS AU Price (at 8:37, 23 Aug 212 GMT) Underperform A$2.79 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.45 12-month TSR % -6.8 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.4-2.47 GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationThe quiet achiever. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: July building approvals 30 August. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 08:02, 16 Aug 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.90 Volatility index Low/Medium 12-month target A$ 3.10 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ 3.18 - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 4.5%, RFR
More informationAventus Retail Property Fund
AUSTRALIA AVN AU Price (at 06:10, 29 Apr 2016 GMT) A$2.16 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 741 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.7 Number shares on issue m 343.2 Investment fundamentals
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationAustralian Banks. Insolent Insolvencies
AUSTRALIA Insolvencies Stubborn # of Insolvencies 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Source: ASIC, Macquarie Research, Dec 212 WA/VIC insolvencies deterioration 2.4 2.2 Jan- 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Source: ASIC,
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
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AUSTRALIA ASB AU Price (at 01:41, 02 Jan 2013 GMT) A$0.58 Volatility index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 201 30-day avg turnover A$m 0.3 Number shares on issue m 346.0 Investment fundamentals
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AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
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AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
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AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
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AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at 07:11, 11 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$12.00 Valuation A$ 12.03 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.2%) 12-month target A$ 12.98 12-month TSR % +12.8 Volatility
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AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 13:07, 19 Apr 2012 GMT) Outperform A$3.39 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 3.55 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 0.9, ERP 6.0%, TGR 1.0%) 3.55
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AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationA$4.85 AUSTRALIA. TLS AU vs ASX 100, & rec history
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More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
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AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
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AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:49, 11 Apr 2013 GMT) Outperform A$59.35 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 63.85 12-month TSR % +9.6 Valuation A$ 59.84 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.0%, TGR
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More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
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AUSTRALIA HVN AU Price (at 06:10, 09 Sep 2015 GMT) Underperform A$3.96 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 4.16-4.56 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index Low Market cap A$m 4,523 30-day avg
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More informationTelstra Corporation. Spend, save, pivot, review grow? A$4.84 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
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AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
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AUSTRALIA BBG AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Aug 2012 GMT) A$1.35 Volatility index Very High GICS sector Consumer Durables & Apparel Market cap A$m 644 30-day avg turnover A$m 4.4 Number shares on issue m 478.9
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UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
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AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationPremier Investments. Smiggle proving a four leaf clover A$13.79 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 05:28, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$13.79 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.46 12-month target A$ 17.19 12-month TSR % +28.7 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
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