Crown Resorts. A favourable risk/reward setting A$12.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
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- Amanda Ellis
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1 AUSTRALIA CWN AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$12.94 Valuation A$ DCF (WACC 8.6%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.) 12-month target A$ month TSR % Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services Market cap A$m 9, day avg turnover A$m 22.5 Number shares on issue m Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E m 2, , , ,768.0 EBIT m Reported profit m Adjusted profit m Gross cashflow m CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x CWN AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2015 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 7 July 2015 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited A favourable risk/reward setting Event We adjust our near-term domestic profit expectations following a number of recent data points and industry discussions that suggest a favourable outlook for Crown s domestic assets, albeit at a more modest near-term growth rate. All in, we view the risk/reward setting as favourable. Impact Improving momentum in Melbourne. Our positive outlook on Crown is premised on the firm s solid operation footprint in Australia, with +4-6% main gaming floor growth across the domestic casinos through FY17 combining with a solid outlook for VIP revenue, as outlined in our recent VIP focused report titled Following Chinese footsteps. Recent data releases suggest that EGM revenue momentum is improving in Victoria, with VCGLR data showing +3.8% EGM revenue growth across Victoria for the first five months of 2015, likely supported by lower interest rates and improved consumer sentiment. We model MGF revenue growth of +5.1%. On VIP, we model revenue growth of +21.5% vs the pcp, which sits 16% below 1H15, and EBITDA growth of +9.4%. Our VIP margin lag is based on a +7.5% increase to VIP commission rates, resulting in a $14m EBITDA headwind vs the pcp. Combined, we model Crown Melbourne 2H15 revenue/ EBITDA growth at +9.8/+3.8%. Crown Perth outperforming local economy. While the macro setting in WA has kept investors wary of growth in Crown Perth, our recent visit suggests the firm is well positioned for MGF/VIP revenue growth of +3/+13%. Despite the recent VIP tax rate cut improving Perth s ability to attract customers from SE Asia, in addition to a continued cost-out program, we view the margin benefit as minimal due to the likely increase in VIP commission rates. Further offsetting the margin benefit, we expect the VIP tax base as likely to fall short of the minimum tax guarantee to the WA Govt, requiring a further $1-2m tax contribution. We model 2H15 Perth revenue/ebitda growth of +7.1/6.3%. CrownBet marketing to weigh on Wagering. We model a ramp-up in marketing is likely to weigh on the Wagering division following the tie-up with BetEasy in 1H15. The division posted 1H15 revenue at $23.7m and EBITDA of -$5.2m, however we note this represented only two weeks of the combined entity. In 2H15, we model revenue of $45m, based on turnover of ~$560m and a yield of 8%. Accounting for the notable step up in marketing, we model an EBITDA loss for 2H15 at -$10.0m. We model the Wagering division to return to profitability in 2H16 as marketing spend falls to a normalised level. Earnings and target price revision EPS changes: FY15E -5.7%, FY16E -4.1%, FY17E -2.8%. Our target price falls to $16.20 (from $16.50). Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$16.20 based on a Sum of Parts methodology. Catalyst: FY15 earnings release, August 13th. Action and recommendation Maintain Outperform. We view the risk/reward setting as favourable. Please refer to page 8 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website
2 2H15 results preview VIP strength combines with satisfactory main gaming floor. Despite a weak consumer environment in Crown s key domestic markets of Melbourne and Perth, combined with welldocumented headwinds in Macau, we view Crown as likely to post group revenue growth of +11.7% and earnings growth of +0.7%, after accounting for the tie-up with BetEasy. On a like-forlike basis (ex-wagering), we model revenue growth of +8.7% and EBITDA growth of +3.3%. Per our industry checks, Crown Melbourne remains well positioned to post 2H15 revenue growth of +9.8%, supported by +5.1% revenue growth on the main gaming floor and +21.5% VIP growth. Latest data released by the VCGLR highlights Victorian EGM expenditure growth of +3.8% for the five months to May 2015, likely supporting Melbourne MGF growth. For Crown Perth, investor focus has centred on the slowing macro setting in Western Australia. While not immune to this slowdown, we model Crown Perth posting +7.1% revenue growth, supported by the main gaming floor posting solid revenue growth of +3.1%, and VIP revenue growth of As such, we model Australian casino revenue growth of +8.9%, with EBITDA growth of +4.5% lagging revenue growth based on an uptick in VIP commissions as Crown continues to build out their share in regional VIP turnover, as we have previously outlined in our recent Asian regional casino piece titled Search for life beyond Macau, and our research report titled Following Chinese footsteps. CrownBet ramp-up likely to weigh on near-term EBITDA. We model a ramp-up in marketing spend is likely to weigh on Crown s Wagering division following the tie-up with BetEasy in December 2014, in which Crown s wholly owned sports book, Betfair, combined with BetEasy s fixed odds business in a JV. The Wagering division posted 1H15 revenue at $23.7m and an EBITDA loss of -$5.2m, however we note this represented only two weeks of the combined entity. For 2H15, we model revenue of $45m, derived from turnover of ~$560m and a revenue yield of 8%. Accounting for the notable step up in marketing to build out the CrownBet brand, we model an EBITDA loss for 2H15 at -$10.0m. We view CrownBet as well positioned to be a disruptive force within the Australian online wagering sector, and model the division to return to positive EBITDA in 2H16 based on increased turnover share and a slow-down in the aggressive marketing ramp-up. Fig 1 CWN FY15 result preview $m 1H15 yoy chg 2H15e yoy chg FY15e yoy chg Crown Melbourne 1, % 1, % 2, Crown Perth % % % Australian casino revenue 1, % 1, % 3, % Aspinalls % % % Wagering 23.7 na 45.0 na 68.7 na Group revenue 1, % 1, % 3, % EBITDA Crown Melbourne % % % Crown Perth % % Australian casino EBITDA % % % Australian casino EBITDA margin 29.4% 27.6% 28.5% Aspinalls % % % Wagering -5.2 na na na Corporate % % Group EBITDA % % % Group EBITDA margin 26.3% 23.9% 25.1% D&A % % EBIT (normalised, theoretical) % % Associates contribution (normalised) % % % EBIT % Net interest % % % EBT % % % Normalised tax % % Adjusted Profit % % % Adjusted EPS % % % DPS Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July July
3 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Macquarie Wealth Management Fig 2 Macquarie vs. consensus expectations - Sales, EBITDA, & EPS (A$m, except EPS) Macquarie Estimates & Variance Consensus Estimates Company Name Identifier Rating Metric FY0 FY1 FY2 FY0 FY1 FY2 Limited CWN-AU OP Sales 3, , , , , ,449.8 EBITDA EBITDA Margin 25.9% 25.1% 26.6% 25.9% 26.1% 26.1% Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2015 EPS Fig 3 Crown s domestic casinos are trading at a 1-turn discount to Echo, reversing the average 1-turn premium averaged over the past four years EV/EBITDA (FY1) 11.0x 10.0x CWN/MPEL EGP 9.0x 8.4x 8.0x 7.0x 7.6x 6.0x 5.0x Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Fig 4 Victorian gaming expenditure vs. Melbourne main gaming floor growth. Latest data from the VCGLR shows Victorian expenditure up +3.8% for the May YTD, supporting our outlook for +5.1% MGF revenue growth for Crown Melbourne (yoy chg) % -1.9% 5.1% 6.3% 4.5% 3.3% 2.9% 1.1% 5.7% 6.7% 2.7% 3.7% Source: VCGLR, Macquarie Research, July % 6.1% 6.6% 3.7% 2.1% 1.1% 4.3% 3.4% 5.1% 3.8% 0.1% 1.1% 1.8% -0.2% -1.9% -6.5% -7.8% FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY10 FY11 FY12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15e Victorian EGM Expenditure - yoy chg Crown MGF - yoy chg 7 July
4 Crown Melbourne supported by MGF strength We anticipate continued strong main gaming floor growth for Crown Melbourne, with the latest VCGLR data showing +3.8% EGM revenue growth across Victoria for the first five months of 2015, likely supported by lower interest rates and improved consumer sentiment. We model MGF revenue growth of +5.1%. On VIP, we model revenue growth of +21.5% vs the pcp, which sits 16% below 1H15, and EBITDA growth of +9.4%. Our VIP margin lag is based on a +7.5% increase to VIP commission rates, resulting in a $14m EBITDA headwind vs the pcp. Combined, we model Crown Melbourne 2H15 revenue/ EBITDA growth at +9.8/+3.8%. Fig 5 Crown Melbourne P&L summary (normalised) $m 1H15a % ch 2H15e % ch FY15e % ch Main gaming floor % % 1, % VIP % % % Non-gaming % % Total revenue 1, % 1, % 2, Total EBITDA % % % EBITDA margin 30.2% 2.9% 27.3% -5.5% 28.8% -1. D&A % % EBIT % % Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Fig 6 Melbourne revenue growth trends Fig 7 Melbourne EBITDA margins 25% 22.5% % 33% 2 15% 1 5% 11.8% 3.3% 6.9% 0.6% 12.8% 9.8% 32% 31% 3 29% 28% 27.9% 27.8% 27.5% 29.3% 29.3% 28.9% 30.2% -5% 27% 27.3% % 26% -15% 25% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Fig 8 Melbourne revenue growth trends: MGF Fig 9 Melbourne revenue growth trends: VIP 8% 7.5% % 6% 4% 2% 5.7% 3.7% -0.2% 4.3% 3.4% 5.1% % 15.1% 0.6% 42.9% 21.5% -2% -1.9% -2-4% % Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July July
5 Crown Perth outpacing local weakness While the macro setting in WA has kept investors wary of growth in Crown Perth, our recent visit suggests the firm is well positioned for MGF/VIP revenue growth of +3/+13%, with visitation remaining relatively strong, offsetting a decline in per capita spending. Despite the recent VIP tax rate cut improving Perth s ability to attract customers from SE Asia, in addition to a continued cost-out program, we view the margin benefit as minimal due to the likely increase in VIP commission rates. We model 2H15 Perth revenue/ebitda growth of +7.1/6.3%. Fig 10 Crown Perth P&L summary (normalised) $m 1H15a % ch 2H15e % ch FY15e % ch Main gaming floor % % % VIP % % Non-gaming % % Total revenue % % % Total EBITDA % % EBITDA margin 27.5% 5.2% 28.4% -0.7% 27.9% 2.2% D&A % % EBIT % % Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Fig 11 Perth growth trends: Fig 12 Perth EBITDA margins 18% 16.7% % 3 16% 29.1% 14% 29% 28.5% 28.6% 28.4% 12% 1 8% 6% 8.2% 8.9% 9.8% 4.3% 7.1% 28% 27% 28.6% 27.7% 27.5% 4% 2% 1.7% 2.4% 26% 26.1% 25% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Fig 13 Perth growth trends: MGF revenue Fig 14 Perth growth trends: VIP revenue 12% 10.9% % % 8% 6% 5.1% 3.7% 4% 3.1% 2.2% 2% -2% -1.3% % % 3.8% 1.9% 1.2% 2.9% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2015 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July July
6 Crown Limited (CWN.AU) Interim results 1H15 2H15e 1H16e 2H16e Profit & Loss FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Crown Melbourne (normalised) $m 1, , , ,162.4 Crown Melbourne (normalised) $m 1, , , ,417.4 Burswood (normalised) $m Burswood (normalised) $m ,101.3 Aspinalls (normalised) $m Aspinalls (normalised) $m Other revenue $m Other revenue $m Total (normalised) $m 1, , , ,767.2 Total (normalised) $m 2, , , ,768.0 Total (reported) $m 1, , , ,712.2 Total (reported) $m 3, , , ,652.5 EBITDA EBITDA Crown Melbourne (normalised) $m Crown Melbourne (normalised) $m Burswood (normalised) $m Burswood (normalised) $m Aspinalls (normalised) $m Aspinalls (normalised) $m Corporate/mark to market/dividends $m Corporate/mark to market/dividends $m Total EBITDA (normalised) $m Total EBITDA (normalised) $m ,027.6 Total EBITDA (reported) $m Total EBITDA (reported) $m ,027.6 Depreciation & Amortisation Depreciation & Amortisation Crown Melbourne $m Crown Melbourne $m Burswood $m Burswood $m Aspinalls $m Aspinalls $m Corporate $m Corporate $m Total D&A $m Total D&A $m Normalised EBIT $m Normalised EBIT $m EBIT non-recurring (adj. for actual win-rate) $m EBIT non-recurring (adj. for actual win-rate) $m Other EBIT non-recurring $m Other EBIT non-recurring $m Reported EBIT (pre-associates) $m Reported EBIT (pre-associates) $m MPEL (33.5%) at actual $m MPEL (33.5%) at actual $m Normalisation of MPEL $m Normalisation of MPEL $m MPEL (33.5%) at theoretical $m MPEL (33.5%) at theoretical $m Aspinalls (5) $m Aspinalls (5) $m Betfair Australia (5) $m Betfair Australia (5) $m Gateway (5) $m Gateway (5) $m Cannery (24.5%) - non-participating $m Cannery (24.5%) - non-participating $m Reported EBIT $m Reported EBIT $m Net Interest $m Net Interest $m EBT $m EBT $m Normalised tax expense $m Normalised tax expense $m Non recurring tax expense $m Non recurring tax expense $m Reported tax expense $m Reported tax expense $m NPAT $m NPAT $m Normalisation of Associates net profits $m Normalisation of Associates net profits $m Reported Profit $m Reported Profit $m Cons. Adj. Profit $m Cons. Adj. Profit $m Gross Cashflow $m Gross Cashflow $m Profit and Loss ratios 1H15 2H15e 1H16e 2H16e Profit and Loss ratios FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e Reported EPS cps Reported EPS cps Adjusted EPS cps Adjusted EPS cps PER (Adj. Earnings) x 18.4x 32.6x 20.4x 25.3x PER (Adj. Earnings) x 18.4x 23.5x 22.6x 20.8x DPS cps DPS cps Dividend Yield % 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% Dividend Yield % 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% Payout ratio % 41% 77% 41% 58% Payout ratio % 42% 42% 42% 42% growth % 17.1% 11.7% 4.5% 7.2% growth % 1.5% 14.4% 5.8% 6. EBITDA growth % 14.8% 0.7% 6.4% 18.6% EBITDA growth % 3.2% 7.8% % EBITDA margin % 26.3% 23.9% 26.8% 26.4% EBITDA margin % 26.7% 25.1% 26.6% 27.3% EBIT growth % 19.7% -3.7% 6.1% 25. EBIT growth % 3.4% % 7.8% Effective tax rate % 17.5% 24.8% 18.9% 21. Effective tax rate % 12.7% % 19.7% EV/EBITDA x 15.6x 18.4x 15.4x 16.1x EV/EBITDA x 17.1x 17.2x 15.9x 14.8x EV/EBIT x 21.8x 28.0x 21.6x 23.3x EV/EBIT x 24.8x 24.9x 22.6x 21.3x FCFEps cps FCFEps cps FCFE Yield % -0.7% -0.5% -2.3% -2.5% FCFE Yield % 2.5% -0.6% -2.4% 0.4% Balance sheet ratios 1H15 2H15e 1H16e 2H16e Balance sheet ratios FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e ROE % 15.3% 8.2% 12.9% 10.3% ROE % 16.1% 11.3% 11.5% 12.1% ROA % 8.9% 4.5% 6.8% 5.3% ROA % 8.8% 5.9% 5.8% 6.1% ROFE % 9.6% 7.3% 9.2% 8.3% ROFE % 9.7% 8.2% 8.5% 8.8% Net Debt $m 2, , , ,247.8 Net Debt $m 1, , , ,468.5 Net Debt / Equity x 0.5x 0.6x 0.7x 0.7x Net Debt / Equity x 0.4x 0.6x 0.7x 0.7x Net Debt / EBITDA x 2.5x 3.4x 3.1x 3.5x Net Debt / EBITDA x 2.0x 3.2x 3.4x 3.4x Net Interest Cover (EBIT) x 6.2x 3.7x 5.2x 4.3x Net Interest Cover (EBIT) x 5.4x 4.8x 4.7x 4.6x Net Interest Cover (EBITDA) x 8.6x 5.7x 7.2x 6.3x Net Interest Cover (EBITDA) x 7.9x 7.0x 6.7x 6.6x Price/NTA x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x Price/NTA x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x NTA per share $ NTA per share $ EFPOWA m EFPOWA m Cashflow Analysis 1H15 2H15e 1H16e 2H16e Cashflow Analysis FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e EBITDA $m EBITDA $m , Tax $m Tax $m Interest paid $m Interest paid $m Change in WC $m Change in WC $m Net Operating cashflows $m Net Operating cashflows $m Capex $m Capex $m Acquisitions / (Divestments) $m Acquisitions / (Divestments) $m Other inv. Cashflows $m Other inv. Cashflows $m Net Investing cashflows $m Net Investing cashflows $m , Dividends Paid $m Dividends Paid $m Equity movements $m Equity movements $m Debt Movements $m Debt Movements $m , Other $m Other $m Net Financing cashflows $m Net Financing cashflows $m Net Increase in Cash $m Net Increase in Cash $m Net Exchange Rate Differences $m Net Exchange Rate Differences $m Net Cash Movement $m Net Cash Movement $m Balance Sheet FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e (FY15e) Cash $m Cash $m Receivables $m Other Receivables $m Inventories Aspinalls revenue $m Inventories $m Investments, equity method 4% $m2% 1, , , ,816.8 Investments, equity method $m 1, , , ,772.8 Other Investments $m Other Investments $m PPE $m 3, , , ,544.1 PPE $m 3, , , ,960.3 Intangibles $m 1, , , ,645.0 Intangibles $m , , ,645.0 Other Assets $m Other Assets $m Total Assets Burswood $m 8, , , ,198.7 Total Assets $m 6, , , , Crown Short Term Debt $m Short Term Debt $m Melbourne Long Term Debt $m 2, , , ,576.9 Long Term Debt $m 1, , , , % Other Liabilities $m 1, ,005.3 Other Liabilities $m , ,030.7 Total Liabilities $m 3, , , ,652.4 Total Liabilities $m 2, , , ,898.5 Shareholders Funds $m 4, , , ,546.3 Shareholders Funds $m 3, , , ,698.4 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July July
7 Fundamentals Macquarie Wealth Management Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a neutral view on. The strongest style exposure is Quality, indicating this stock is likely to have a superior and more stable underlying earnings stream. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 246/381 Global rank in Consumer Services % of BUY recommendations 5 (6/12) Number of Price Target downgrades 2 Number of Price Target upgrades 1 Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Consumer Services) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Echo Entertainment Group Echo Entertainment Group Las Vegas Sands -0.6 Las Vegas Sands Galaxy Entertainment Wynn Resorts Melco Crown Entertainment Wynn Macau Galaxy Entertainment Wynn Resorts Melco Crown Entertainment Wynn Macau Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Echo Entertainment Group Las Vegas Sands Galaxy Entertainment Wynn Resorts Melco Crown Entertainment Wynn Macau Echo Entertainment Group Las Vegas Sands Galaxy Entertainment Wynn Resorts Melco Crown Entertainment Wynn Macau Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. Change in PPE FY0 Net Buybacks to Mkt Cap Capex to Sales FY0 Price to Earnings FY0 Sales Revisions 3 Month Turnover(USD) 125 Day Turnover (USD) 20 Day Working Capital Inc. Negatives Positives -26% -27% -28% -33% 28% 27% 41% 37% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/381) Percentile relative to market(/415) Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 7 July
8 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+1 Neutral expected return from -1 to +1 Underperform expected return <-1 Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+1 Neutral expected return from -1 to +1 Underperform expected return <-1 Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 6 in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 4 in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 3 in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2015 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 46.23% 58.36% 47.27% % 43.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 37.67% 25.65% 29.09% 49.29% 34.19% 40.93% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.53% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform % 23.64% 6.52% 5.16% 16.06% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 1.38% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) CWN AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June month target price methodology CWN AU: A$16.20 based on a Sum of Parts methodology Company-specific disclosures: CWN AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Crown Limited's equity securities. Ben Brazil, Co-Head of Macquarie Corporate & Asset Finance and an Executive Committee Member of Macquarie Group Limited is also a Non Executive Director of Limited. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 08-May-2015 CWN AU Outperform A$ Apr-2015 CWN AU Outperform A$ Mar-2015 CWN AU Outperform A$ Mar-2015 CWN AU Outperform A$ Feb-2015 CWN AU Outperform A$ Jan-2015 CWN AU Outperform A$ Dec-2014 CWN AU Outperform A$ May-2014 CWN AU Outperform A$ Mar-2014 CWN AU Outperform A$ Feb-2014 CWN AU Outperform A$ Feb-2014 CWN AU Outperform A$ Dec-2013 CWN AU Outperform A$ Oct-2013 CWN AU Outperform A$ Aug-2013 CWN AU Neutral A$ Jul-2013 CWN AU Neutral A$ May-2013 CWN AU Neutral A$ Feb-2013 CWN AU Outperform A$ Feb-2013 CWN AU Outperform A$ Nov-2012 CWN AU Outperform A$ Aug-2012 CWN AU Outperform A$ Aug-2012 CWN AU Outperform A$ July
9 26-Jun-2012 CWN AU Outperform A$10.00 Target price risk disclosures: CWN AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: The views expressed in this research reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MGL ) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group ) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) a Participant of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. 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Platinum Asset Management
AUSTRALIA PTM AU Price (at 06:10, 11 Jul 2016 GMT) Neutral A$5.52 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 5.19 12-month target A$ 5.36 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationSG Fleet Group. Another UK acquisition. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 08:26, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.23 Valuation - PER A$ 3.96-4.22 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +41.0 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationIOOF. Positive flows in 1Q17. FUM and Net Flows for September Qtr Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Oct 2016.
AUSTRALIA IFL AU Price (at 06:35, 26 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$8.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 8.74 12-month target A$ 9.00 12-month TSR % +14.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationSG Fleet Group % growth in FY17. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Results and contract wins.
AUSTRALIA SGF AU Price (at 07:57, 27 Oct 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.85 Valuation - PER A$ 3.92-4.18 12-month target A$ 4.37 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationQBE Insurance. QBE ANZ performance: LMI vs. Excl. LMI (A$m) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, April 16. Earnings and target price revision
AUSTRALIA QBE AU Price (at 10:44, 27 Apr 2016 GMT) Neutral A$11.19 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.3%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 11.34 12-month target A$ 12.00 12-month TSR % +12.7 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationNIB Holdings. Lowest in 4 years still enough A$3.72 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NHF AU Price (at 09:52, 02 Mar 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.72 Valuation A$ 3.85 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 4.00 12-month TSR % +11.7 Volatility
More informationEclipx Group. Highlights its funding flexibility A$3.77 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA ECX AU Price (at 02:49, 15 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$3.77 Valuation - PER A$ 3.53-3.78 12-month target A$ 4.22 12-month TSR % +16.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Diversified Financials
More informationAutomotive Holdings Group
AUSTRALIA AHG AU Price (at 06:14, 11 Aug 2016 GMT) Outperform A$4.61 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 4.09-4.63 12-month target A$ 4.36 12-month TSR % -0.2 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Market cap
More informationSilver Chef. Capital raising A$7.71 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SIV AU Price (at 08:50, 21 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$7.71 Valuation - PER A$ 6.68 12-month target A$ 6.68 12-month TSR % -7.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market cap A$m 278
More informationSeek. Progresses Zhaopin privatisation A$16.33 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 06:33, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform A$16.33 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 16.77 12-month target A$ 16.50 12-month TSR % +3.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Commercial &
More informationRamsay Health Care. France begins to bite A$66.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA RHC AU Price (at 06:11, 06 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$66.37 Valuation A$ 64.54 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 70.00 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationCardno. Tough half over A$2.88 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CDD AU Price (at 04:53, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$2.88 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.80-3.43 12-month target A$ 3.12 12-month TSR % +18.4 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Capital Goods Market
More informationOil Search. Proving up PNG A$7.11 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OSH AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$7.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 6.70 12-month target A$ 7.60 12-month TSR % +8.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 10 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$7.03 Valuation NZ$ 7.39 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.80 12-month TSR % +13.1 Volatility
More informationSims Metal Management
AUSTRALIA SGM AU Price (at 5:11, 17 Nov 215 GMT) Outperform A$7.19 Valuation - EV/EBIT A$ 8.49-9.6 12-month target A$ 8.9 12-month TSR % +26.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationTox Free Solutions. Winning work again A$2.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TOX AU Price (at 05:10, 30 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$2.34 Valuation - EV/EBITDA A$ 2.52-3.07 12-month target A$ 2.79 12-month TSR % +23.1 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationTelstra Corporation. Vodafone better, but far from good A$6.43 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 11:23, 21 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$6.43 Valuation A$ 6.37 - DCF (WACC 6.8%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.2%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +3.3 Volatility Index
More informationSouthern Cross Media. Streamlining ahead of reform? A$1.37 AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA SXL AU Price (at 05:10, 27 Mar 2017 GMT) Neutral A$1.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 1.39 12-month target A$ 1.30 12-month TSR % +0.8 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationBoart Longyear. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA BLY AU Price (at 08:01, 12 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$0.50 Valuation A$ 0.71 - DCF (WACC 10.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 0.1%, RFR 0.1%, TGR 0.0%) 12-month target A$ 0.56 12-month TSR % +12.0 Volatility Index
More informationWhitehaven Coal. China outlook drives impairments A$1.04 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA WHC AU Price (at 06:10, 13 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.04 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 1.18 12-month target A$ 1.15 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$33.91 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 37.74 12-month target A$ 39.39 12-month TSR % +22.1 Volatility Index Low
More informationSirtex Medical. Healthy dose sales. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY16 result on the 24th of August
AUSTRALIA SRX AU Price (at CLOSE#, 11 Jul 2016) Outperform A$27.88 Valuation A$ 37.93 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.5%) 12-month target A$ 38.00 12-month TSR % +37.4 Volatility
More informationCochlear. Roberts replaced A$88.66 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA COH AU Price (at 06:47, 26 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$88.66 Valuation A$ 81.19 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target A$ 95.00 12-month TSR % +9.8 Volatility
More informationNuplex Industries. Should benefit from a weak Kiwi NZ$4.55 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND NPX NZ Price (at 05:00, 31 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.55 Valuation NZ$ 4.40 - DCF (WACC 12.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +10.6 Volatility
More informationBendigo and Adelaide Bank
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 06:17, 30 Mar 2017 GMT) Underperform A$12.03 Valuation A$ 11.48- - Sum of Parts/GG 11.71 12-month target A$ 11.50 12-month TSR % +1.2 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationOz Minerals. On track to meet guidance A$6.51 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 08:20, 22 Jul 2016 GMT) Underperform A$6.51 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 4.31 12-month target A$ 5.00 12-month TSR % -21.4 Volatility Index High
More informationOrigin Energy. 4Q Production. ORG reported its 4 th quarter production report, following on ConocoPhilips quarterly result.
AUSTRALIA ORG AU Price (at 06:11, 30 Jul 2015 GMT) Neutral A$11.35 Valuation A$ 12.79 - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.3, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 12.89 12-month TSR % +18.1 Volatility
More informationCoca-Cola Amatil. Not as fizzy as it looks A$8.78 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA CCL AU Price (at CLOSE#, 21 Aug 2015) Underperform A$8.78 Valuation A$ 8.47 - DCF (WACC 8.7%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 1.9%) 12-month target A$ 8.99 12-month TSR % +7.3 Volatility Index
More informationKingsgate Consolidated
AUSTRALIA KCN AU Price (at 6:11, 31 Jul 215 GMT) Underperform A$.67 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%).3 12-month target A$.3 12-month TSR % -54.9 Volatility Index Very High GICS
More informationSpotless Group Holdings
AUSTRALIA SPO AU Price (at 05:45, 31 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$0.94 Valuation - Peer multiples A$ 1.02 12-month target A$ 1.02 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index High GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationMeridian Energy. On tax depreciation NZ$2.08 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
NEW ZEALAND MEL NZ Price (at 05:00, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$2.08 Valuation NZ$ 2.50 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 2.60 12-month TSR % +31.7 Volatility
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 03:59, 16 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.63 Valuation NZ$ 6.86 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +11.6 Volatility
More informationChallenger. Normalised margin trends expected to decline. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
1H13E 2H13E 1H14E 2H14E 1H15E 2H15E AUSTRALIA CGF AU Price (at CLOSE#, 20 Aug 2012) Outperform A$3.76 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.57 12-month TSR % +26.4 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.57
More informationSenex Energy Production and revenue unsurprised, cash builds on lower capex
26 April 2018 Australia EQUITIES SXY AU Price (at 06:10, 26 Apr 2018 GMT) Outperform A$0.42 Valuation A$ 0.49 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.5, ERP 4.0%, RFR 4.3%) 12-month target A$ 0.50 12-month TSR % +19.0
More informationCIMIC Group. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Q1 earnings 13 April. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CIM AU Price (at 05:10, 31 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$35.93 Valuation A$ 42.69 - DCF (WACC 8.5%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 42.50 12-month TSR % +22.0 Volatility
More informationOz Minerals. Solid start to the year A$5.62 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 6:24, 21 Apr 216 GMT) Underperform A$5.62 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 4.61 12-month target A$ 4.6 12-month TSR % -15.5 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationANZ Bank. The Dis-Associates. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 3Q15 Trading Update. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 07:51, 03 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform A$32.46 Valuation - DDM/PE A$ 32.52 12-month target A$ 33.91 12-month TSR % +10.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Banks Market cap A$m 89,752
More informationVista Group International
NEW ZEALAND VGL NZ Price (at 03:15, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$4.35 Valuation NZ$ 4.31 - DCF (WACC 9.9%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.0%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 4.75 12-month TSR % +9.5 Volatility
More informationCarsales.com. Motoring along nicely A$10.23 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CRZ AU Price (at 9:48, 18 Feb 15 GMT) Outperform A$1.23 Valuation A$ 12.59 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.2, ERP 5., RFR 3.8%, TGR 3.) 12-month target A$ 12.3 12-month TSR % +24.1 Volatility Index
More informationSuper Retail Group (SUL AU) Are we there yet?
25 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES SUL AU Price (at 09:01, 24 Oct 2018 GMT) Neutral A$8.33 Valuation A$ 8.30-9.50 - EV/EBITA 12-month target A$ 8.70 12-month TSR % +10.9 Volatility Index GICS sector Low/Medium
More informationGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia
AUSTRALIA GMA AU Price (at 07:29, 05 Aug 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.50 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.0%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%) 3.52 12-month target A$ 3.47 12-month TSR % +9.2 Volatility Index Medium
More informationPilbara Minerals (PLS AU) Ramp-up gaining traction
17 January 219 Australia EQUITIES PLS AU Price (at 5:1, 16 Jan 219 GMT) Outperform A$.7 Valuation A$ 1.11 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.6, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 12-month target A$ 1.2 12-month TSR % +72.7 Volatility
More informationOrocobre. Upside exposure fading. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: Update on projects or Q1 report
AUSTRALIA ORE AU Price (at 5:11, 28 Feb 217 GMT) Neutral A$3.8 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$ 1.34 12-month target A$ 3.17 12-month TSR % +2.9 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationNEW ZEALAND Price Valuation NZ$ 1.74 Event 12-month target NZ$ month TSR % -10.1
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 05:06, 24 Feb 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$2.20 Valuation NZ$ 1.74 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.6%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.82 12-month TSR % -10.1 Volatility
More informationRegis Resources. Strong 1H15 result A$1.29 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA RRL AU Price (at 7:29, 13 2 GMT) Outperform A$1.29 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.68 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +37.2 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationKaroon Gas. What a difference a day makes A$1.63 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +47.7 Volatility Index High
More informationPerseus Mining. Revised Sissingué plan A$0.31 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PRU AU Price (at 5:1, 31 Mar 217 GMT) Neutral A$.31 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%).35 12-month target A$.32 12-month TSR % +3.2 Volatility Index Very High GICS sector
More informationKiwi Property Group. Land banking for the future NZ$1.43 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND KPG NZ Price (at 08:19, 07 Apr 2017 GMT) Outperform NZ$1.43 Valuation NZ$ 1.53 - DCF (WACC 6.9%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.53 12-month TSR % +11.8 Volatility
More informationDowner EDI Two out of three ain t bad Event
AUSTRALIA DOW AU Price (at 06:26, 01 Dec 2016 GMT) Outperform A$6.08 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 5.69-6.38 12-month target A$ 6.40 12-month TSR % +9.6 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationGeneration Healthcare REIT
AUSTRALIA GHC AU Price (at 06:13, 24 Aug 2015 GMT) Neutral A$1.65 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 1.51-1.59 12-month target A$ 1.59 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap
More informationAuckland International Airport
NEW ZEALAND AIA NZ Price (at 04:00, 27 Nov 2013 GMT) Neutral NZ$3.42 Valuation NZ$ 3.37 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.3%, TGR 3.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 3.37 12-month TSR % +2.6 Volatility
More informationFortescue Metals Group
AUSTRALIA FMG AU Price (at 5:1, 5 Mar 215 GMT) Neutral A$2.29 Valuation A$ 2.6 - DCF (WACC 1.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.6%) 12-month target A$ 2.6 12-month TSR % +16. Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSandfire Resources. Swings to net cash A$5.34 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 6:11, 7 Jul 216 GMT) Outperform A$5.34 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 5.82 12-month target A$ 6.1 12-month TSR % +18.3 Volatility Index Medium GICS
More informationPanAust. Larger impairment and dividend cut A$1.35 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA PNA AU Price (at 7:6, 19 Feb 215 GMT) Outperform A$1.35 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.73 12-month target A$ 1.7 12-month TSR % +25.9 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationHealthcare. Currency adjustments AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook COH 8.0% RMD 6.9% CSL 6.0% ANN 5.0% SHL 2.6%
AUSTRALIA Recommendations: CSL Outperform P/T: $110.00 RMD Underperform P/T: $7.50 COH Outperform P/T: $100.00 SHL Outperform P/T: $24.00 ANN Outperform P/T: $26.00 RHC Outperform P/T: $75.00 A$ earnings
More informationSingTel. Optus rises A$3.98 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 12 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$3.98 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.64-4.73 12-month target A$ 4.69 12-month TSR % +22.4 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication
More informationUGL. Driving growth in DTZ. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 08:17, 03 Sep 2012 GMT) Underperform A$10.52 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 11.08 12-month TSR % +12.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 6.0%, TGR 2.5%) 15.09
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1H14 result in February Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA CBA AU Price (at 06:10, 10 Sep 2013 GMT) Neutral A$73.63 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.3%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.5%) 50.40 12-month target A$ 66.15 12-month TSR % -5.0 Volatility Index Low
More informationIron Mountain. US$10 worth Recalling at investor day US$31.83 UNITED STATES. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
UNITED STATES IRM US Price (at 20:03, 07 Oct 2015 GMT) Outperform US$31.83 Valuation - DCF (WACC 6.1%) US$ 40.00 12-month target US$ 40.00 12-month TSR % +31.6 GICS sector Real Estate Market cap US$m 6,711
More informationAdelaide Brighton. Overcoming headwinds A$5.45 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ABC AU Price (at 09:22, 23 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$5.45 Valuation A$ 6.40 - DCF (WACC 7.8%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 6.30 12-month TSR % +2 Volatility Index
More informationPremier Investments. Making a move? A$14.18 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PMV AU Price (at 09:06, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$14.18 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 17.19 12-month target A$ 17.92 12-month TSR % +30.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Retailing Market
More informationRamsay Health Care (RHC AU) RHC UK on the mend?
17 October 2018 Australia EQUITIES RHC AU Price (at 05:48, 17 Oct 2018 GMT) Outperform A$54.18 Valuation A$ 68.50 - DCF (WACC 7.4%, beta 0.9, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.7%, TGR 3.7%) 12-month target A$ 68.50 12-month
More informationIndependence Group NL
AUSTRALIA IGO AU Price (at 12:29, 26 Oct 216 GMT) Outperform A$4.25 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.4%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 3.98 12-month target A$ 5. 12-month TSR % +2.2 Volatility Index High GICS
More informationSingTel. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Outperform.
AUSTRALIA SGT AU Price (at 05:10, 06 Dec 2012 GMT) Outperform A$2.59 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.81 12-month TSR % +14.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.81 GICS sector Telecommunication Services
More informationOz Minerals. Raises copper production outlook A$9.08 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA OZL AU Price (at 7:28, 3 Jan 27 GMT) Neutral A$9.8 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 8.48 2-month target A$ 9.3 2-month TSR % +4.6 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationAsaleo Care. NZ$ pulped. We review the outlook for Asaleo. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: CY15 results.
AUSTRALIA AHY AU Price (at 06:10, 16 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.80 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 1.90-2.00 12-month target A$ 2.00 12-month TSR % +16.8 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Household & Personal
More informationAged Care. Propco sale & lease back A$2.71 A$5.75 A$6.15 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA JHC AU Price (at 06:10, 27 Apr 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.71 Valuation A$ 2.97 - DCF (WACC 9.1%, beta 1.1, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.3%) 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +14.7 Volatility
More informationAMP. Earnings and target price revision. No change. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at CLOSE#, 19 Mar 213) Underperform A$5.7 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 4.99 12-month TSR % +3.6 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 4.68 GICS sector Insurance Market cap A$m 14,855
More informationAustralian Banks. Pre-Reporting Form Guide AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA MRE vs Consensus MQG FY15 Consensus FY15 Date Profit EPS DPS Profit EPS DPS BEN 10-Aug 439 92 67 434 92 67 CBA 12-Aug 9,289 557 420 9,116 554 419 Source: Factset, Macquarie Research, August 2015
More informationANZ Bank. What execution risk? Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: 1Q17 Trading update, February 2017.
AUSTRALIA ANZ AU Price (at 09:15, 18 Jan 2017 GMT) Neutral A$30.11 Valuation A$ 30.69- - Sum of Parts/GG 31.47 12-month target A$ 31.00 12-month TSR % +8.4 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Banks
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Valuation A$ 7.52 Event 12-month target A$ month TSR % +3.4
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 05:10, 19 Feb 2015 GMT) Neutral A$7.59 Valuation A$ 7.52 - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 3.9%) 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +3.4 Volatility Index
More informationAustralian Mobile Market
AUSTRALIA Telstra data inclusions on key post-paid plans $130 $130 $95 $70 $55 Optus data inclusions on key post-paid plans "Everyday Connect" "Mobile Accelerate" $50 $40 Vodafone data inclusions on key
More informationRyman Healthcare. Arrested development NZ$9.60 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
NEW ZEALAND RYM NZ Price (at 6:, 19 May 216 GMT) Outperform NZ$9.6 Valuation NZ$ 1.5 - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta.8, ERP 7.%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.%) 12-month target NZ$ 11. 12-month TSR % +16.5 Volatility Index Low
More informationFisher & Paykel Healthcare
NEW ZEALAND FPH NZ Price (at 05:00, 28 May 2015 GMT) Outperform NZ$6.30 Valuation NZ$ 7.29 - DCF (WACC 8.8%, beta 0.9, ERP 7.0%, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target NZ$ 7.25 12-month TSR % +17.6 Volatility
More informationGenesis Energy. A 9% FCF yield and you call underperform? NZ$1.71 NEW ZEALAND. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
NEW ZEALAND GNE NZ Price (at 06:49, 29 Jul 2015 GMT) Underperform NZ$1.71 Valuation NZ$ 1.60 - DCF (WACC 8.0%, beta 0.6, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.5%, TGR 2.1%) 12-month target NZ$ 1.65 12-month TSR % +6.1 Volatility
More informationSilver Lake Resources
AUSTRALIA SLR AU Price (at 12:42, 27 Jan 215 GMT) Neutral A$.25 Valuation - DCF (WACC 1.%) A$.23 12-month target A$.23 12-month TSR % -8. Volatility Index Very High GICS sector Materials Market cap A$m
More informationIluka Resources. A soft start to FY15 A$7.73 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA ILU AU Price (at 06:10, 15 Apr 2015 GMT) Underperform A$7.73 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.0%, beta 1.5, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 6.35 12-month target A$ 6.50 12-month TSR % -12.6 Volatility Index Medium
More informationNational Australia Bank
AUSTRALIA NAB AU Price (at 08:23, 03 Jul 2012 GMT) Outperform A$23.68 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 27.66 12-month TSR % +24.9 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 12.6%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 5.8%) 25.14
More information3P Learning. Coming to America... A$2.55 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA 3PL AU Price (at 09:19, 02 Mar 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.55 Valuation - DCF A$ 2.65-3.35 12-month target A$ 3.00 12-month TSR % +18.9 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationMonash IVF Group. Share losses compound pain A$1.40 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA MVF AU Price (at 05:10, 25 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$1.40 Valuation A$ 1.80 - DCF (WACC 1.8%, beta 1.1, ERP, RFR 4.5%, TGR 2.0%) 12-month target A$ 1.80 12-month TSR % +33.8 Volatility Index
More informationAUSTRALIA Price Event Valuation A$ month target A$ 5.20
AUSTRALIA VOC AU Price (at 05:10, 22 Feb 2017 GMT) Outperform A$4.81 Valuation A$ 5.02 - DCF (WACC 7.7%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.0%) 12-month target A$ 5.20 12-month TSR % +12.2 Volatility
More informationSaracen Mineral Holdings
AUSTRALIA SAR AU Price (at 5:, Jan 17 GMT) Neutral A$1.11 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.4, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 1.19 12-month target A$ 1. 12-month TSR % +.5 Volatility Index High GICS sector Materials
More informationAustralian Banks. Funding markets open for now
AUSTRALIA Weekly performance 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling monthly performance 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% Source: IRESS, August 212 Rolling yearly performance % 15% 5% -5%
More informationNine Entertainment Co.
AUSTRALIA NEC AU Price (at 06:47, 26 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$2.03 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 8.2%, beta 1.2, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 2.41 12-month target A$ 2.25 12-month TSR % +15.3 Volatility Index Low/Medium
More informationFilling in the gaps. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA PGH AU Price (at 06:11, 16 Jun 2015 GMT) Neutral A$4.45 Valuation - Peers' Multiples A$ 4.70 12-month target A$ 4.70 12-month TSR % +10.3 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Materials Market cap
More informationEvolution Mining. Cowal pushes EVN beyond 800kozpa A$1.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA EVN AU Price (at 3:18, 26 May 215 GMT) Neutral A$1.1 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.8%) 1.11 12-month target A$ 1.1 12-month TSR % +1.8 Volatility Index High GICS sector
More informationKaroon Gas. Losing the deal A$1.83 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA KAR AU Price (at 05:10, 29 Mar 2017 GMT) Outperform A$1.83 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 11.1%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%) 2.79 12-month target A$ 2.40 12-month TSR % +31.5 Volatility Index High
More informationDexus Property Group. Infra driving industrial demand A$9.94 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA DXS AU Price (at 06:10, 06 Apr 2017 GMT) Neutral A$9.94 Valuation - NAV A$ 9.20-9.57 12-month target A$ 9.57 12-month TSR % +1.0 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Real Estate Market cap A$m 9,621
More informationAustralian Banks. If it s too good to be true AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook. Impact of repricing and capital from additional 10% investor RWA
CBA CBA CBA CBA AUSTRALIA Changes to lending rates (bps) bps Owner Occupier Investor P&I IO P&I IO 0 20 25 36 CBA 3 25 24 26 7 7 25 25 3 8 23 28 BEN 0 0 25 25 Source: Company data, Macquarie research,
More informationAust. General Insurance
AUSTRALIA June 2016 3 mth rolling market results Personal Commercial Market Average Rate Growth -3. -3.6% -3.3% GWP Growth 1.8% -0.8% 0.9% Volume Growth 2.8% 0.8% 2.1% Est. Exposure Value Growth 2. 2.
More informationEarnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 13:07, 19 Apr 2012 GMT) Outperform A$3.39 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 3.55 12-month TSR % +13.0 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 9.6%, beta 0.9, ERP 6.0%, TGR 1.0%) 3.55
More informationNewcrest Mining. Strong production result A$21.37 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst
AUSTRALIA NCM AU Price (at 5:37, 27 Oct 216 GMT) Neutral A$21.37 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 5.%, beta.8, ERP 5.%, RFR 3.3%) 15.8 12-month target A$ 24. 12-month TSR % +13.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector
More informationCSL. New competitor on the block A$89.68 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA AU Price (at 10:28, 20 May 2015 GMT) Outperform A$89.68 Valuation A$ 95.47 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.0, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%, TGR 2.5%) 12-month target A$ 102.00 12-month TSR % +15.7 Volatility
More informationSeek. SEEKing to evolve A$17.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation
AUSTRALIA SEK AU Price (at 12:41, 17 Feb 2015 GMT) Outperform A$17.10 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 18.03 12-month target A$ 18.10 12-month TSR % +8.5 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Commercial & Professional
More informationSandfire Resources. Strong result but guidance light A$6.10 AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Earnings and target price revision.
AUSTRALIA SFR AU Price (at 06:37, 29 Jul 20 GMT) Outperform A$6.10 Valuation A$ - DCF (WACC 10.0%, beta 1.7, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.8%) 8.02 12-month target A$ 8.00 12-month TSR % +35.8 Volatility Index Medium
More informationFairfax / REA Group. No housing boom here. A$0.81 Valuation A$ Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ month TSR % +16.0
AUSTRALIA FXJ AU Price (at 05:11, 03 Nov 2016 GMT) Outperform A$0.81 Valuation A$ 0.88 - Sum of Parts 12-month target A$ 0.90 12-month TSR % +16.0 Volatility Index Low/Medium Market cap A$m 1,863 30-day
More informationTatts Group. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Action and recommendation. Maintain Underperform on valuation grounds.
AUSTRALIA TTS AU Price (at 8:37, 23 Aug 212 GMT) Underperform A$2.79 Volatility index Low 12-month target A$ 2.45 12-month TSR % -6.8 Valuation - Sum of Parts A$ 2.4-2.47 GICS sector Consumer Services
More informationAussie Macro Moment. Budget 16/17 careful consolidation AUSTRALIA. Event. Impact. Outlook
AUSTRALIA Lower deficits still in train, arriving late - - - /5 /7-5 -5 Jun-9 Jun- Jun Jun-8 Jun Jun Jun- Revenue recovery remains sluggish 7 5 Australian Federal : Underlying Balance ( of GDP) 5/ Spending
More informationGreencross. Check up. We review the outlook for GXL. Earnings and target price revision. Price catalyst. Catalyst: FY15/6 results
AUSTRALIA GXL AU Price (at 09:46, 13 Jul 2015 GMT) Outperform A$5.00 Valuation - EV/EBITA A$ 7.15-8.05 12-month target A$ 7.50 12-month TSR % +53.9 Volatility Index Medium GICS sector Health Care Equipment
More informationAustralian Banks. Insolent Insolvencies
AUSTRALIA Insolvencies Stubborn # of Insolvencies 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, Source: ASIC, Macquarie Research, Dec 212 WA/VIC insolvencies deterioration 2.4 2.2 Jan- 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 Source: ASIC,
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