A$4.85 AUSTRALIA. TLS AU vs ASX 100, & rec history

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1 AUSTRALIA TLS AU Price (at 05:10, 16 Feb 2017 GMT) Neutral A$4.85 Valuation A$ DCF (WACC 6.4%, beta 0.8, ERP 5.0%, RFR 3.3%, TGR 1.0%) 12-month target A$ month TSR % +9.5 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Telecommunication Services Market cap A$m 57, day avg turnover A$m Number shares on issue m 11,893 Investment fundamentals Year end 30 Jun 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E Revenue m 25,911 26,029 27,100 27,588 EBIT m 5,807 5,309 5,317 4,748 Reported profit m 5,780 3,900 4,970 4,721 Adjusted profit m 3,411 3,351 3,354 2,954 Gross cashflow m 7,635 7,866 7,934 7,593 CFPS CFPS growth % PGCFPS x PGCFPS rel x EPS adj EPS adj growth % PER adj x PER rel x Total DPS Total div yield % Franking % ROA % ROE % EV/EBITDA x Net debt/equity % P/BV x TLS AU vs ASX 100, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2017 (all figures in AUD unless noted) 17 February 2017 Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited Competitive pressures persist Event Telstra reported 1H17 EBITDA up 2.4% to $5.4bn (on a guidance basis). Impact Disappointing top line trends, with a partial offset from cost-out initiatives: While lower Mobile Handset revenues were the primary driver of the downgrade to revenue guidance, revenue trends in Telstra s 1H result did disappoint in a number of key products and also across both Corporate and Consumer segments. Mobile service revenues remained in decline on an underlying basis (ex-mtas), while declines in Fixed and Data & IP accelerated. Structural and competitive pressures are likely to continue going forward, and in some cases will accelerate. All up, Telstra delivered Total Income of $13.7bn, down 0.7% on a reported basis and up 2.2% excluding regulatory impacts. Within this, one-off NBN DA and connection payments were $370m, contributing to 268bps of growth. Telstra is seeing some momentum in its cost out program, which has allowed it to maintain its EBITDA guidance (growth in low-single to mid-single digit range). Competitive pressures to persist: As referenced above, a lot of the challenges that held back revenue trends this half are likely to sustain going forward. While there are some positive forward indicators for Mobile, the competitive landscape looks finely balanced, with Optus aggressively seeking market share and Vodafone re-invigorated. Broadband ARPU compression reflects the challenges presented by the NBN rollout as well as some dilution from its dual-brand strategy (under Belong). Data & IP revenue declines accelerated and reflect increased competition across all major players due to both price deflation and contract losses, as well as NBN impacts. We see Group FY17 revenue and EBITDA up +3.5% and +2.8%, respectively, on a guidance basis, broadly in line with guidance. Pulling back dividend estimates longer-term: The ongoing competitive pressures in key segments do present increased risks on execution going forward. As previously discussed in our research (refer note Telstra Corp We need to talk about the dividend, 31 October 2016), Telstra has little margin for error if it is going to be able to sustain its dividend at current levels post the NBN rollout given some of the longer-term challenges. While much will come down to execution in Mobiles over time, this result does again highlight the risk to the dividend longer-term, and we have reflected this by cutting DPS to 28cps (from 31cps) from FY20 as the NBN rollout completes. Earnings and target price revision FY17-19 EBITDA down by %, but this translates to EPS declines of 7.8%, 7.4% and 8.6%, respectively, due to leverage and higher D&A. Price catalyst 12-month price target: A$5.00 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: ACCC decision on mobile roaming (March?), 700MHz spectrum auction (April) and further updates on Telstra s broader capital review Action and recommendation Neutral retained. The challenging competitive environment across most of Telstra s key segments drives downgrades to our earnings estimates, and again highlights the risk to dividend sustainability in a post-nbn world. To reflect this investment backdrop, we ve cut longer-term dividend forecasts, while also reducing our TP by 7.4% to $5.00/sh. Please refer to page 10 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

2 The good The not so good The interesting NAS revenues grew by 18%, in part reflecting revenues from the NBN commercial works. NAS margins expanded 6ppts to 8% and the EBITDA contribution from NAS increased by $90m, making it a key earnings contributor to the Group in 1H17. Opex fell by 2.2% in the half (excluding restructuring and redundancy charges). Underlying core fixed costs fell 2.6% in the period, with management targeting a nominal reduction of 2% per annum. Global Connectivity revenues grew by 16% in local currency terms, although this was partly offset by a strong AUD. NBN payments rose to $1.06bn on the back of higher infrastructure lease payments and migration receipts. These receipts should increase again into the second half, which is one driver to the expected earnings skew across the year. Mobile subscriber trends remained robust, with postpaid adds up 79k during the half against a backdrop of heightened competition. Prepaid unique users increased by 39k and, coupled with ARPU increases, prepaid revenue grew by 8.2%. Telstra added 90k retail broadband subscribers during the half and continues to perform well on the subscriber acquisition front. Within that, Telstra added 292k NBN subscribers, achieving a market share outcome of 51%. 85% of fixed data customers are now on a bundled plan, up from 80% six months ago. Telstra s balance sheet remains strong, with gearing covenants sitting at the conservative end of indicative comfort zones. 1H17 EBITDA was below market expectations, driven by softer revenue trends (see below) and pressure on key segment margins. Against this, FY17 EBITDA guidance for growth of low- to mid-single digits was re-iterated. Telstra effectively downgraded its revenue guidance, but noting that it now expects to deliver Total Income growth at the bottom end of the range. In part this reflects lower mobile handset revenues, however it also is being driven by softer operating trends for a number of key segments, including Fixed, and Data & IP. Recurring core EBITDA fell by 3.8% or $194m, with $152m in impacts related to the NBN rollout. Cash conversion was weak again in the half, at 84.3%. Full year FCF guidance was retained at $ bn (Macquarie $3.7bn). Combined fixed line voice and broadband revenues fell by -4.8% in 1H, compared to declines of -3.6% and -2.1% in 2H16 and 1H16, respectively. While there is competitive pressure in this segment, the rollout of the NBN is also a major driver here, and the pace of these declines will accelerate as the NBN rolls out. Against that, Telstra will see increased NBN payments as partial offsets. Mobile service revenues fell by 9.8%. Excluding MTAS changes, this equates to declines of ~1.7% and is broadly consistent with 2H16. The declines reflect heightened competition in both Consumer and Corporate. Mobile EBITDA fell by $63m vs 1H16. Competition, lower regulated pricing and the NBN contributed to Data & IP revenue declines of -4.2% in 1H17. This compares to declines of - 2.2% in 2H16 and -1.6% growth in 1H16. Strategic NPS fell 8 points lower compared to a year earlier. Capex spend will ramp up in the second half. Capex to sales in 1H was 16%, compared to Telstra s full year guidance for 18%. The increase will primarily relate to the ramp-up in Telstra s network upgrade and digitisation program. There was no major update on the capital review flagged by Telstra last year, with an update expected later this year. Management did commit to maintaining a strong balance sheet through the NBN rollout, in what appeared to be a response to early investor feedback. Telstra recorded $165m in restructuring and redundancy charges during the half, primarily related to the acceleration of restructuring activity under the Fitter and Fast programs. It had previously said these impairments will be between $300m and $500m over the year. Telstra s 15.5cps interim dividend was unchanged and equated to a payout ratio of 105%.. Mobiles will cycle a tough EBITDA comp in 2H16, which delivered margins of 45.9% due to a benefit of ~$150m (Macq estimate) from the timing of rebate payments for international roaming. FOXTEL did not pay a dividend in the half ($37m in 1H16). 17 February

3 Result summary Key numbers from Telstra s 1H17 result: Total Income down 0.7% to $13.7bn (growth ex-regulatory adjustments was +2.2%); Reported EBITDA (includes non-recurring NBN DA income) down 1.6% to $5.2bn; EBITDA on a guidance basis up 2.4% to $5.4bn; Interim dividend of 15.5cps Fig 1 Telstra 1H17 result summary 1H16 1H17 % ch Mobiles 5,524 5, % Fixed - Domestic (incl TUSOPA) 3,517 3, % Recurring NBN DA income (ISA recurring) % Data & IP - Domestic 1,434 1, % NAS - Domestic 1,250 1, % Global Connectivity % Other core % Recurring core income 13,343 12, % NBN one-off DA income % New Business % Total reported income 13,802 13, % Costs (Recurring) 8,209 7, % Costs (Reported) 8,529 8, % Mobile - Domestic 2,128 2, % Fixed Domestic (ex NBN C2C) 1,725 1, % NBN DA (Recurring) % Data & IP - Domestic % NAS - Domestic % Global Connectivity (GES Intern'l) % Other core* (Media, Foxtel distrib, other) % Recurring core EBITDA 5,134 4, % % ch vs. pcp NBN DA (One-off) % New business % Impairment or Guidance adjustment nmf Reported EBITDA 5,273 5, % EBITDA (ex PSAA, ex Associates) 5,046 4, % D&A 2,031 2, % EBIT Consolidated 3,015 2, % + NRIs % + Associates % EBIT Total 3,354 2, % - Gross Interest Expense % + Gross Interest Income % Net Interest Expense % EBT 3,007 2, % Tax Consolidated % Tax Non Recurring % Total Tax Expense % Net Profit 2,135 1, % - Minority Interests % Reported Profit 2,093 1, % Cons. Adj. Profit 1,818 1, % Adj EPS % DPS % 17 February

4 Guidance Telstra reaffirmed previously issued FY17 guidance, although Total Income growth is now expected to be at the lower end of the guidance range: Fig 2 Telstra FY17 guidance FY16 actual FY17 guidance Macquarie estimate Total income $27.1bn Mid-to-high single digit (lower end) +3.5% EBITDA $10.7bn Low to mid-single digit +2.8% Capex/sales ratio 15.2% ~18% 18% Free cashflow $4.8bn $ billion $3.67 billion *Guidance assumes wholesale price stability, no impairments to investments, and that the NBN is rolled out in line with the nbn Corporate plan Guidance excludes proceeds from M&A, the sale of businesses and spectrum payments, as well as a $246m Ooyala impairment in FY16 and FY17 restructuring costs of $ m. Cash flow outlook and capital management We have taken a more conservative approach to capital management, including a partial scaleback of future buybacks from $4bn to $3bn. This is effectively the redeployment of some of the excess NBN cashflow generated in these years. Fig 3 Forecast free cashflow generation and deployment for Telstra (FY15-20e) FY15 FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e FY20e Generation of free cashflow Cash flow from Operations 7,632 7,134 6,790 8,111 7,611 7,189 Less: Capex (excluding spectrum) -3,800-4,194-4,646-4,792-4,747-3,489 Underlying free cashflow 3,832 2,940 2,145 3,319 2,863 3,700 Add: NBN migration payments (net of tax) ,592 1,742 1,031 Total free cashflow generation (a) 3,946 3,292 2,966 4,912 4,606 4,730 Divestments 0 2, Free cash flow (b) 3,946 5,392 3,217 4,912 4,606 4,730 Deployment of free cashflow Ordinary dividends 3,700 3,787 3,737 3,671 3,609 3,377 Special dividends Share buybacks 1, ,500 1,000 1,000 1,000 Total capital management (c) 4,700 3,787 5,237 4,671 4,609 4,377 Spectrum 1, M&A 1, Total deployment of capital (d) 7,106 3,984 5,512 5,059 4,609 4,377 Cash surplus/(deficit) pre spectrum/m&a (a) - (c) , Cash surplus/(deficit) (a) - (d) -3, , Cash surplus/(deficit) including divestments (b) - (d) -3,160 1,408-2, Mobiles Telstra s Mobiles business is facing increased competition. Against that backdrop, Telstra delivered a robust result for 1H17 for post-paid, while subscriber weakness in headline pre-paid numbers was offset by increased ARPUs and an 8.2% increase in pre-paid revenues for the period. 17 February

5 Fig 4 Telstra subscriber growth trends Mobiles k Post-paid Pre-paid WBB 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 Revenue trends remained weak, however management was keen to highlight that underlying trends did stabilise in the period and it is encouraged by trends in the business as it cycles out of plan adjustments that have held back ARPUs. On this basis, there is scope for a recovery in mobile trends in the second half. Fig 5 Breaking down Telstra s mobile revenue growth drivers: Some signs of stabilisation and we assume a reduced blended ARPU drag in 2H17 % ch vs pcp 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2.4% 7.5% 7.3% 5.0% 7.5% 7.0% 0.5% Signs of stabilisation in 1H17? -9.7% -9.8% 0.3% 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17e 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% SIO adds Mix shift ARPU Wholesale MTAS impact Total change Total (ex - MTAS) Mobile margins were a little soft on an adjusted basis, reflecting ongoing competition. Telstra cycles an inflated margin outcome in 2H, with the pcp benefiting from timing of payment of international roaming credits. 17 February

6 Fig 6 Telstra Mobiles service revenue contribution Fig 7 Telstra Mobiles EBITDA contribution $m 4,500 3,750 3,000 2,250 1, ,500 3,800 3,903 4,077 4,098 4,382 4,386 4,403 30% 3,959 3,971 25% 20% 15% 7.5% 7.3% 7.5% 7.0% 10% 5.0% 2.4% 5% 0.5% -1.6%-1.7% 0% -5% -9.7% -9.8% -10% 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 Service revenue % ch vs. pcp % ch (ex MTAS) $m 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 38.7% 39.0% 40.9% 39.6% 40.2% 38.5% 13.8% 8.0% 12.2% 9.7% 11.3% 8.8% 0.9% 45.9% 5.4% 40.9% 42.8% 40.9% 38.5% -3.0% 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 EBITDA Margin % ch vs. pcp Margin (ex MTAS) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Note: 2H16 onwards impacted by lower regulatory MTAS pricing Fixed trends deteriorating in the face of NBN migrations Total Fixed revenues fell 4.8% in the first half, after falling 3.6% in 2H16. As the NBN rolls out, Telstra continues to cede some access revenues. This is driving the recent deterioration in fixed line revenue trends, as illustrated in Fig 8. EBITDA margins are also under pressure. These trends should deteriorate further as the pace of the NBN roll-out picks up in coming years, while the lower wholesale access pricing decision has also had an impact. Fig 8 Aggregate fixed line revenues to see increased declines as NBN rolls out Fig 9 Telstra Retail basic access lines remain under pressure % ch vs pcp 10% 7.8% 5.6% 6.0% 6.5% 6.7% 6.7% 4.6% 4.3% 4.6% 5% 1.8% 0% -4.1% -3.1% -3.0% -1.8% -2.2% -2.1% -3.6% -4.8% -5% -6.9% -6.5% -10% -8.2% -7.3% -7.7% -6.9% -7.3% -7.6% -9.0% -9.4% -11.1% -10.8% -15% 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 PSTN Broadband Combined k H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 17 February

7 NBN payments continue to ramp up NBN payments were $1.1bn in the half, broadly in line with expectations. Fig 10 Summary of Telstra s NBN payments Summary of NBN payments FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1H17 2H17e FY17e C'wealth agreements & other Govt policy commitments Recurring ISA: Duct, Rack and Backhaul NBN commercial works - sale of assets One-off NBN DA ISA: Ownership receipts PSAA (Migration payments) ,174 Total NBN DA Income ,350 1,057 1,295 2,352 Target price reduced to $5/share We have reduced our TP for Telstra by 40cps to $5/share, reflecting lower earnings and increasing risks around the operating environment. On A PE Rel basis, Telstra is currently tracking at a discount to its 36-month rolling average PE Rel against the ASX 200 Industrials. In part, this effective de-rate suggests that some of Telstra s growth challenges across its core business are factored in to the current share price. Fig 11 PE Absolute Telstra & ASX 200 Industrials Fig 12 PE Rel Telstra vs. ASX 200 Industrials Absolute PER 20x 18x 16x 14x 12x 10x 8x 6x 4x 2x 0x Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 TLS-AU ASX 200 Industrials PE Rel vs ASX 200 Industrials Index 1.4x 1.2x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x 0.4x 0.2x 0.0x Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 TLS-AU Rolling 36M Mean Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February February

8 (TLS) $4.85 Interim 1H17 2H17e 1H18e 2H18e Full year FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Sales revenue $m 12, , , ,764.9 Sales revenue $m 25, , , ,587.8 Other revenue $m Other revenue $m , Revenue (ex PSAA payments) $m 13, , , ,307.0 Revenue (ex PSAA payments) $m 26, , , ,421.6 Opex $m 8, , , ,433.6 Opex $m 16, , , ,036.4 EBITDA $m 4, , , ,873.3 EBITDA $m 9, , , ,385.2 D&A $m 2, , , ,314.7 D&A $m 4, , , ,650.4 EBIT $m 2, , , ,558.6 EBIT $m 5, , , ,734.9 Associates $m Associates $m EBIT incl. assoc $m 2, , , ,563.6 EBIT incl. assoc $m 5, , , ,747.9 Net Interest Expense $m Net Interest Expense $m Pre-Tax Profit $m 2, , , ,252.3 Pre-Tax Profit $m 5, , , ,139.9 Tax Expense $m Tax Expense $m 1, , , ,196.8 Net Profit $m 1, , , ,612.8 Net Profit $m 3, , , ,943.1 Minority Interests $m Minority Interests $m Adjusted Earnings $m 1, , , ,617.9 Adjusted Earnings $m 3, , , ,953.5 NRIs (net of tax) $m NRIs (net of tax) $m 2, , ,767.2 Reported Earnings $m 1, , , ,513.0 Reported Earnings $m 5, , , ,720.6 EPS (Adj/dil) cps EPS (Adj/dil) cps EPS Grow th % (7.3%) 8.3% 6.3% (4.8%) EPS Grow th % (15.4%) 0.1% 0.6% (10.4%) Ordinary DPS cps Ordinary DPS cps Special DPS cps Special DPS cps Total DPS cps Total DPS cps Dividend yield % 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% Dividend yield % 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% Payout ratio (adj) % 112.4% 107.1% 105.7% 112.5% Payout ratio (adj) % 109.8% 109.7% 109.0% 121.7% FCF/sh cps FCF/sh cps FCFE yield (annualised) % 2.1% 7.5% 9.4% 6.4% FCFE yield (annualised) % 5.6% 4.8% 7.9% 8.2% EBITDA margin % 36.6% 36.6% 36.2% 34.1% EBITDA margin % 37.6% 36.6% 35.1% 33.0% EBIT margin % 19.5% 19.9% 19.8% 17.9% EBIT margin % 21.9% 19.7% 18.8% 16.7% EBITDA grow th % (4.5%) 1.3% 4.2% (2.7%) EBITDA grow th % (5.4%) (1.6%) 0.7% (5.2%) EBIT Grow th % (14.7%) (3.1%) 6.8% (6.3%) EBIT Grow th % (11.4%) (9.1%) 0.1% (10.8%) Profit and Loss Ratios FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Cashflow Analysis FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Income grow th (ex PSAA payments) % 0.5% 1.0% 4.9% 0.8% EBITDA $m 9, , , ,385.2 % of EBITDA in 1H % 50.5% 49.1% 50.8% 50.7% Ch in Working Capital $m (179.0) (754.9) (15.8) 57.8 Effective tax rate % 30.0% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% Net Interest Paid $m (729.0) (705.6) (610.7) (608.0) PER (adj) x Tax Paid $m (1,860.0) (1,755.0) (1,737.1) (1,971.0) EV/EBIT x Other $m , ,488.9 EV/EBITDA x Operating Cashflow $m 7, , , ,353.1 EV/Sales x Acquisitions $m (197.0) (58.0) - - Capex $m (4,194.0) (4,863.1) (5,179.5) (4,747.4) Balance Sheet Ratios FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Asset Sales $m Other $m 1, ROE % 38.7% 25.1% 32.9% 31.1% Investing Cashflow $m (2,420.0) (4,097.1) (5,179.5) (4,747.4) ROFE % 19.7% 17.5% 17.3% 15.5% Dividends Paid $m (3,787.0) (3,737.5) (3,671.4) (3,609.4) ROA % 14.4% 12.8% 12.8% 11.5% Equity movements $m (68.0) (1,524.0) (1,000.0) (1,000.0) Net Debt (pro-forma) $m 12,459 14,007 14,154 14,158 Debt movements $m (556.3) Net Debt/Equity x Other $m 6.0 (60.0) - - Net Debt/EBITDA x Financing Cashflow $m (2,917.0) (5,877.8) (4,523.9) (4,605.7) Interest Cover (EBIT) x EFPOWA m 12,226 11,854 11,793 11,593 Net Cashflow $m 2,149.0 (2,363.0) - - Divisional revenue estimates FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Balance Sheet FY16 FY17e FY18e FY19e Fixed $m 6,721 6,401 5,866 5,060 Cash $m 3, , , ,188.0 Mobiles $m 10,438 10,040 10,203 10,474 Receivables $m 6, , , ,647.7 Data & IP $m 2,829 2,704 2,571 2,433 Inventories $m NAS $m 2,581 3,175 4,127 4,746 Investments $m Media $m 974 1,091 1,173 1,238 PP&E $m 20, , , ,859.9 International $m 1,452 1,457 1,597 1,739 Intangibles $m 9, , , ,143.0 Other sales revenue $m 880 1,079 1,450 1,781 Other Assets $m 2, , , ,860.5 Other revenue (inc Foxtel) $m Total Assets $m 43, , , ,865.3 Total revenue $m 25,952 26,029 27,100 27,588 Payables $m 4, , , ,422.2 Short Term Debt $m 2, , , ,736.0 Long Term Debt $m 14, , , ,903.0 Snapshot Current Provisions $m 1, , , ,646.0 Current price $ $4.85 Other Liabilities $m 4, , , ,977.0 EFPOWA # 11,814 Total Liabilities $m 27, , , ,684.2 Market cap $m 57,300 Shareholders Funds $m 15, , , ,153.2 Net debt $m 14,729 Minority Interests $m EV $m 72,029 Shaereholder Equity $m 15, , , , February

9 Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on Telstra Corporation. The strongest style exposure is Profitability, indicating this stock is efficiently converting investments to earnings; proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often persist into the future. 32/179 Global rank in Telecommunication Services % of BUY recommendations 23% (3/13) Number of Price Target downgrades 1 Number of Price Target upgrades 1 Fundamentals Attractive Quant Local market rank Global sector rank Displays where the company s ranked based on the fundamental consensus Price Target and Macquarie s Quantitative Alpha model. Two rankings: Local market (Australia & NZ) and Global sector (Telecommunication Services) Macquarie Alpha Model ranking A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score (higher is better). Factors driving the Alpha Model For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Spark New Zealand 0.7 Spark New Zealand 0.7 TPG Telecom -0.9 TPG Telecom % -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction revisions. Current score shown below. Drivers of Stock Return Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. Spark New Zealand -0.3 Spark New Zealand -0.1 TPG Telecom -1.6 TPG Telecom % -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return What drove this Company in the last 5 years Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company s returns over the last 5 years. EV/EBITDA FY0 Price to Cash FY0 Dividend Yield NTM Turnover (USD) 250 Day Dividend Cover Net Income Margin FY0 Altman Z-Score Interest Cover -30% -30% -30% -31% Negatives Positives 37% 36% 36% 35% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% How it looks on the Alpha model A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market. Alpha Model Score Valuation Growth Profitability Earnings Momentum Price Momentum Quality Capital & Funding Liquidity Risk Technicals & Trading Normalized Score Percentile relative to sector(/179) Percentile relative to market(/422) Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group (cpg@macquarie.com) 17 February

10 Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high highest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down % in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40 60% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30 40% in a year. Low medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25 30% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15 25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2016 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 57.53% 50.72% 45.57% 42.28% 60.58% 52.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.71% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 33.90% 33.97% 43.04% 50.11% 37.23% 35.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 8.56% 15.30% 11.39% 7.61% 2.19% 11.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.63% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) TLS AU vs ASX 100, & rec history (all figures in AUD currency unless noted) Note: Recommendation timeline if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February month target price methodology TLS AU: A$5.00 based on a DCF methodology Company-specific disclosures: TLS AU: Macquarie and its affiliates collectively and beneficially own or control 1% or more of any class of Limited's equity securities. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 29-Oct-2016 TLS AU Neutral A$ Aug-2016 TLS AU Neutral A$ May-2016 TLS AU Neutral A$ Feb-2016 TLS AU Neutral A$ Nov-2015 TLS AU Neutral A$ Aug-2015 TLS AU Underperform A$ Feb-2015 TLS AU Neutral A$ Feb-2015 TLS AU Neutral A$ Dec-2014 TLS AU Neutral A$ Aug-2014 TLS AU Neutral A$ Feb-2014 TLS AU Neutral A$4.80 Target price risk disclosures: TLS AU: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures. Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views 17 February

11 This publication was disseminated on 16 February 2017 at 14:45 UTC. Macquarie Wealth Management expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Limited (MGL) total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group s Investment Banking activities. General disclosure: This research has been issued by Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited ABN , AFSL , a Participant of the ASX and Chi-X Australia Pty Limited. This research is distributed in Australia by Macquarie Wealth Management, a division of Macquarie Equities Limited ABN AFSL ("MEL"), a Participant of the ASX, and in New Zealand by Macquarie Equities New Zealand Limited ( MENZ ) an NZX Firm. Macquarie Private Wealth s services in New Zealand are provided by MENZ. Macquarie Bank Limited (ABN , AFSL No ) ( MBL ) is a company incorporated in Australia and authorised under the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) to conduct banking business in Australia. None of MBL, MGL or MENZ is registered as a bank in New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act Apart from Macquarie Bank Limited ABN (MBL), any MGL subsidiary noted in this research,, is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Australia) and that subsidiary s obligations do not represent deposits or other liabilities of MBL. MBL does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of that subsidiary, unless noted otherwise. This research contains general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This research has been prepared for the use of the clients of the Macquarie Group and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use or disclose this research in any way. If you received it in error, please tell us immediately by return and delete the document. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Macquarie Group does not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The Macquarie Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. The Macquarie Group produces a variety of research products, recommendations contained in one type of research product may differ from recommendations contained in other types of research. The Macquarie Group has established and implemented a conflicts policy at group level, which may be revised and updated from time to time, pursuant to regulatory requirements; which sets out how we must seek to identify and manage all material conflicts of interest. The Macquarie Group, its officers and employees may have conflicting roles in the financial products referred to in this research and, as such, may effect transactions which are not consistent with the recommendations (if any) in this research. The Macquarie Group may receive fees, brokerage or commissions for acting in those capacities and the reader should assume that this is the case. The Macquarie Group s employees or officers may provide oral or written opinions to its clients which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at Macquarie Group 17 February