The Expansionary Lower Bound: A Theory of Contractionary Monetary Easing *

Transcription

1 The Expansionary Lower Bound: A Theory of Contractionary Monetary Easing * Paolo Cavallino Damiano Sandri IMF Research Department CEBRA - Boston Policy Workshop July 2017 * The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

2 Introduction Introduction Over last few years, growing skepticism about monetary policy (MP) EMs unable to insulate themselves from US monetary shocks Rey (2015,2016), Rajan (2015) Monetary policy in EMs undermined by carry-trade flows Blanchard et al. (2016) Prolonged low interest rates can jeopardize financial stability Borio and Zabai (2016) Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

3 Introduction Our contribution Theory of interaction between MP and borrowing constraints can rationalize previous concerns about MP Key implication is existence of Expansionary Lower Bound (ELB) Interest rate below which further easing becomes contractionary ELB can be positive stronger constraint for MP than ZLB ELB can be influenced by foreign monetary policy international spillovers Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

4 Introduction Structure of the paper General model deriving conditions for the existence of the ELB MP is assumed to affect borrowing constraints ELB exits if easing tightens borrowing constraints enough Three applications that endogeneize how MP affects constraints Open economy with currency mismatches Open economy with carry traders Closed economy and bank profitability Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

5 General Model General model Consider a closed or open economy model with borrowers and savers Agents face borrowing constraint Φ t Assume that Φ t is affected by monetary policy Two conditions are required for the existence of the ELB 1 Monetary easing should make borrowing constraints binding ( )) Φ t (Π B t P t CB t > 0 I t 2 Once constraints bind, easing should reduce aggregate demand ( ) Φ t + Π B t + P t Ct S 0 I t Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

6 General Model The Expansionary Lower Bound The ELB places a limit on the ability of MP to stimulate output Y H,1 ELB Y H,1 Constrained Unconstrained I 1 ELB I 1 Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

7 Application I: Currency Mismatches The ELB and currency mismatches Small open economy populated by Households: borrow from domestic banks Banks: borrow from foreigners in FX Firms: produce differentiated varieties under monopolistic competition Discrete time t = 0: to analyze ex-ante implications of ELB t = 1: ELB can emerge t 2: long-run steady state Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

8 Application I: Currency Mismatches Households Home households maximize [ E 0 ln C 0 + β ln C 1 + β ] 1 β ln C where ln C t = (1 α) ln C H,t + α ln C F,t Subject to budget constraints P 0 C 0 = Π H,0 + L 0 N 0 P 1 C 1 = Π H,1 + L 1 L 0 I0 L P C = Π H + (1 β) ( N 2 L 1 I1 L ) Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

9 Application I: Currency Mismatches Financial Sector Financial firms borrow abroad in FX and lend domestically N t+1 = L t I L t + R t I t e t+1 D t I t where R t are central bank reserves (R t 0) Financial firms face the time-1 collateral constraint L 1 φn 1 FOCs are I t = I t e t+1 e t I L t = I t + µ t Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

10 Application I: Currency Mismatches Equilibrium Long-run spending is determined by money supply P C = M P C = M We first characterize time-1 equilibrium given state variables L 0 = I L 0 L 0 D 0 = I 0D 0 We then consider time-0 equilibrium and endogeneize L 0 and D 0 Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

11 Application I: Currency Mismatches Time-1 equilibrium when banks are unconstrained If banks are unconstrained I L 1 = I 1 and P H Y H,1 = (1 α) M βi 1 + e 1 αm e 1 = I 1 αm I 1 α M β I 1 A domestic interest rate cut stimulates spending on domestic goods It increases domestic demand It increases foreign demand by depreciating the exchange rate However, monetary easing makes collateral constraint binding Exchange rate depreciation reduces bank networth Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

12 Application I: Currency Mismatches Time-1 equilibrium when banks are constrained Once banks are constrained I L,con 1 = Domestic monetary easing αm/β 1 (φ 1) L 0 e 1 ( ) φd 0 α M I 1 β 1 still stimulates foreign demand by depreciating the exchange rate but it curbs domestic demand by raising lending rates Which effect prevails depends on extent of currency mismatch Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

13 Application I: Currency Mismatches The ELB under currency mismatches If foreign currency liabilities are sufficiently large to satisfy φ (1 α) D 0 > α M monetary policy faces an ELB given by β 1 I 1 I1 ELB = I1 αm φd 0 α M (φ 1) L 0 so that the maximum attainable level of output is YH,1 ELB = α M (φ 1) L 0 I1 β 1 φd 0 α P H Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

14 Application I: Currency Mismatches The ELB and foreign monetary policy Foreign MP tightening raises the ELB Despite flexible exchange rates, EMs can be pushed into recession Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

15 Application I: Currency Mismatches Escaping the ELB How to escape the ELB? Forward guidance ineffective ELB can be lowered by reducing M, but no effect on Y ELB H,1 Differently from ZLB, ELB is endogenous Recapitalization policies may help Equity injections relax collateral constraints and support lending Capital controls or foreign exchange rate intervention may work too Helpful to delink domestic monetary conditions from exchange rate Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

16 Application I: Currency Mismatches Time-0 equilibrium Monetary easing at t = 0 raises the ELB at t = 1 I1 ELB = φ φ 1 δαmi1 /E 0 [I1 ] N 0 I 0 + δαm/e 0 [I 1 ] Monetary easing at t = 0 becomes less effective Y H,0 = (1 α) M/ P H β 0 β 1 I 0 E 0 [I 1 ] + e 0 α M / P H β 0 β 1 I 0 E 0 [I 1 ] US commitment to keep I 1 low partially undone by higher D 0 D 0 = δ α M E 0 [I 1 ] Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

17 Application II: Carry traders The ELB and carry traders Household and firm sector similar to previous application except Domestic heterogeneity between borrowers and savers Local currency pricing so that foreign demand not affected by I t Banks raise domestic deposits and hold government bonds N t+1 = L t I L t + B t I B t + R t I t D t I D t with FOCs L 1 + ξb 1 φn 1 I D t = I t I L t = I t + µ t I B t = ξi L t + (1 ξ) I t Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

18 Application II: Carry traders Carry traders Foreign investors follow a carry-trade strategy Bt F = ( It B It ) To obtain closed-form solutions, we assume ( Bt F = B 1 t F + γ It 1 Ĩt B ) UIP no longer holds Monetary easing still depreciates exchange rate to clear bond market Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

19 Application II: Carry traders Time-1 equilibrium Time-1 output is given by ( ω Y H,1 = I L ω ) 1 α + I 1 P H β 1 α P H β 1 I 1 Monetary easing stimulates output while banks are unconstrained...but it eventually makes constraints binding Once banks are constrained, if γ is large enough I L,con 1 I 1 < 0 Easing still stimulates savers spending, but reduces borrowers Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

20 Application II: Carry traders The ELB under carry-trade flows If foreign investors are sensitive enough to interest rate differential γ > ω (1 ω) ξ (ω ξ) β 1 monetary policy faces an ELB given by 1 I ELB 1 Θ 1 + ξ = ( R 1 + B F 1 + γ I 1 ω β 1 + ξγ ) (ξ η 1 ) B G 1 Foreign monetary tightening raises the ELB Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

21 Application II: Carry traders Escaping the ELB Fiscal consolidation lowers the ELB by reducing government bonds but only if it does not impose excessive tax burden on borrowers Quantitative easing is also effective central bank purchases relax banks balance-sheets Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

22 Application III: Bank profitability The ELB and bank profitability Closed economy model with domestic borrowers and savers Banks face the collateral constraint L 1 φ N N 1 + φ Υ (Υ 1 1 ) where Υ 1 and 1 are profits and dividend payments Υ 1 = L 1 I L 1 D 1 I D 1 N 1 1 = N 1 ( I D 1 + ν 1 ) Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

23 Application III: Bank profitability Market power and deposit floor Banks have market power in both lending and deposit markets If collateral constraint not binding, banks charge lending spread ɛ L I1 L = I 1 + ɛ L + µ 1 Banks try to also charge a deposit spread ɛ D but deposit rates cannot decline below I D 1 I1 D = Max [ I 1 ɛ D, I D ] 1 Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

24 Application III: Bank profitability Time-1 equilibrium Output and net profits are given by ( ω Y H,1 = I1 L + 1 ω ) M I1 D β 1 PH ( Υ 1 1 = L 1 I L 1 I1 D ) νn1 If collateral constraint and deposit floor are not binding, Monetary easing is expansionary and profits increase with expansion of aggregate lending Once deposit floor binds, I D 1 = ID 1, Easing reduces profits and eventually makes collateral constraints bind At that point, easing is unable to stimulate output and ELB emerges I ELB 1 I D 1 + ɛ D Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25

25 Conclusion Conclusion Interaction between monetary policy and borrowing constraints Expansionary Lower Bound Interest rate below which monetary easing is contractionary The ELB can be positive, thus more binding than ZLB be affected by foreign monetary policy international spillovers emerge under various conditions: currency mismatch, carry trade, bank profitability Cavallino and Sandri (IMF Research) ELB July / 25