Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro August 2006

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1 Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

2 IZDAVAČ: WEB ADRESA: Centralna banka Crne Gore Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog br.6 Telefon: Fax: SAVJET CENTRALNE BANKE: Mr Ljubiša Krgović Mr Milojica Dakić Mr Goran Knežević Petar Drakić Krunislav Vukčević Radmila Savićević Prof. Dr. Franjo Štiblar PRIPREMA: GRAFIČKI UREDNIK: SEKTOR ZA ISTRAŽIVANJE I STATISTIKU Dr. Nikola Fabris, glavni ekonomista Marijana Mitrović, pomoćnik direktora Danijela Vukajlović Grba, pomoćnik direktora Vesna Saveljić, šef Odjeljenja za analizu i istraživanja kretanja u realnom sektoru Milica Vlahović, šef Odjeljenja za monetarna istraživanja i statistiku Svetlana Cerović, šef Odjeljenja za fiskalne analize Boris Kilibarda, šef Odjeljenja za platni bilans Tanja Radunović, viši savjetnik Odjeljenja za monetarna istraživanja i statistiku Andrijana Vujović Molimo korisnike ove publikacije da prilikom korišćenja podataka iz izvještaja obavezno navedu izvor. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore ii

3 PUBLISHED BY: WEBSITE: CENTRAL BANK COUNCIL: PREPARED BY: TRANSLATED BY: DESIGNED BY: Central Bank of Montenegro Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog Podgorica Telephone: Fax: Ljubiša Krgović, MS, president Milojica Dakić, MS Goran Knežević, MS Petar Drakić Krunislav Vukčević Radmila Savićević Prof. Franjo Štiblar, PhD RESEARCH AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Nikola Fabris, PhD, Chief Economist Marijana Mitrović, assistant director Danijela Vukajlović Grba, assistant director Vesna Saveljić, chief of Real Sector Developments Analysis and Research Division Milica Vlahović, chief of Monetary Research and Statistics Division Svetlana Cerović, chief of Fiscal Analysis Division Boris Kilibarda, chief of Balance of Payments Division Tanja Radunović, senior analyst in Monetary Research and Statistics Division Lidija Ćirović Popadić Andrijana Vujović Users of this publication are requested to make reference to the source of information whenever they use data from the Report. iii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

4 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore predstavlja mjesečnu publikaciju koju priprema Centralna banka Crne Gore. Bilten je pregled najvažnijih statističkih podataka koji predstavljaju dobru bazu za sadašnje i buduće analize kretanja u crnogorskom bankarstvu i privredi. Osnovni akcenat je na podacima čiji je izvor Centralna banka Crne Gore, vezanim za monetarna kretanja, bankarski sistem, platni bilans i platni promet u zemlji i inostranstvu. Takođe je napravljena statistička baza drugih makroekonomskih pokazatelja iz realnog i fiskalnog dijela, tržišta novca i tržišta kapitala, kao i neki uporedni podaci o zemljama koje su u procesu Evropskih integracija. Sadržajno se sastoji iz dva dijela: kratkog pregleda kretanja i statističkog pregleda. Na kraju su data metodološka objašnjenja tabela. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore iv

5 The Bulletin of Central bank of Montenegro is a monthly publication prepared by the Central Bank of Montenegro. Bulletin has been envisaged as an overview of the most important statistical data that represent a good base for current and future analyses of developments in the Montenegrin banking system and economy. The emphasis was put on data whose source is the Central Bank of Montenegro and which are related to monetary developments, banking developments, the balance of payments, and payment operations in the country and abroad. There is also a statistical base of other macroeconomic indicators in the real and the fiscal sphere, the money market and the capital market, as well as some comparative data on countries undergoing the European integration process. The content consists of two parts: a short overview of developments and a statistical overview. Methodological explanations of tables are given at the end of the document. v Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

6 Sadržaj MAKROEKONOMSKI TRENDOVI 8 STATISTIČKI BILTEN 26 I Monetarna statistika 26 II Tržište novca i tržište kapitala 40 III Ekonomski odnosi sa inostranstvom 54 IV Platni promet 56 V Realni sektor 62 VI Fiskalni sektor 68 VII Međunarodne komparacije 73 VIII Metodologija 76 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore vi

7 Contents MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9 STATISTICAL BULLETIN 26 I Monetary Statistics 26 II Money Market and Capital Market 40 III International Economic Relations 54 IV Payment operations 56 V Real Sector Developments 62 VI Fiscal Developments 68 VII International Comparison 73 VIII Methodology 77 vii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

8 Makroekonomska kretanja Kretanje cijena Mjesečna stopa inflacije mjerena indeksom cijena na malo u julu je prvi put ove godine bila negativna i iznosila je -0,2%. Glavni razlog pada stope inflacije je pad cijena poljoprivrednih proizvoda za 7,4%, koji je uslovio i pad cijena robe za 0,2%. U pitanju je sezonski trend da tradicionalno cijene poljoprivrednih proizvoda rastu u aprilu, a opadaju u julu, što se odražava na kretanje ukupne stope inflacije. U odnosu na kraj godine cijene na malo bilježe rast od 1,4%, dok je godišnja stopa inflacije u julu iznosila 2,3%. Grafik br. 1 - Cijene na malo Izvor: Monstat Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda bile su u julu na istom nivou kao i prethodnog mjeseca, pri čemu su cijene robe za ličnu potrošnju bile niže za 0,4%, dok su cijene materijala za reprodukciju porasle za 0,3%. U odnosu na kraj godine cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda porasle su za 2,6%. Grafik br. 2 - Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Izvor: Monstat Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 8

9 Macroeconomic Developments Prices For the first time this year, monthly inflation in July, measured by the retail price index, was negative, amounting to -0.2%. The main reason for the fall in the inflation rate was a decline in the prices of agricultural products of 7.4% which caused a 0.2% decrease in the prices of goods. Compared to end-2005, retail prices recorded a growth of 1.4%, while the annual inflation rate in July amounted to 2.3%. Graph 1 - Retail prices Source: Monstat The producers` prices of manufactured products in July were at the same level as in the previous month, whereby the prices of consumer goods fell by 0.4% and those of intermediate goods rose by 0.3%. Compared to the year-end 2005, the producers` prices increased by 2.6%. Graph 2 - Producer prices Source: Monstat 9 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

10 Industrijska proizvodnja Fizički obim industrijske proizvodnje u prvih sedam mjeseci ove godine povećan je za 3,9% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Rast je ostvaren u 16 industrijskih grana, dok je pad registrovan samo u granama prerađivačke industrije: proizvodnja duvanskih proizvoda; proizvodnja odjevnih predmeta i krzna; proizvodnja celuloze, papira i prerada papira; proizvodnja hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda kao i proizvodnja proizvoda od gume i plastičnih masa. U julu je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec zabilježen blagi pad industrijske proizvodnje od 0,2%, kao posljedica manje proizvodnje električne energije, gasa i vode za 6,3%. Sektor Vađenja rude i kamena i sektor Prerađivačke industrije ostvarili su veću proizvodnju za 0,8%, i 1,7% respektivno. U poslednjih dvanaest mjeseci ostvaren je rast industrijske proizvodnje za 10,4%. Grafik br. 3 - Industrijska proizvodnja Izvor: Monstat Turizam U prvih sedam mjeseci godine Crnu Goru je posjetilo 17,7% više turista nego u istom periodu pošle godine, pri čemu je broj dolazaka inostranih turista povećan za 39,5%, a domaćih turista i turista iz Srbije za 6,8%. U posmatranom periosu ostvareno je 2,8 miliona noćenja, 17,6% više nego u istom periodu lani, uz rast noćenja stranih turista od 48,8%. Saobraćaj, šumarstvo i građevinarstvo U oblasti saobraćaja tokom prvih šest mjeseci ove godine zabilježeni su pozitivni rezultati. Manji obim ostvaren je kod prevoza putnika željeznicom i u gradskom saobraćaju, dok je u ostalim oblastima saobraćajnih usluga ostvaren veći obim prometa. U oblasti šumarstva u prvih šest mjeseci ove godine proizvedeno je m 3 šumskih sortimenata, što je 8,6% više u odnosu na isti period godine. U istom periodu prodato je m3 šumskih sortimenata što je za 29,3% više nego u istom periodu godine. Vrijednost izvršenih građevinskih radova u prvih šest mjeseci ove godine iznosila je 78,7 miliona eura, što je 192% više nego u istom periodu godine. Posmatrano kroz efektivne časove rada proizvodnja je porasla za 76,4%. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 10

11 Industrial Output The physical volume of industrial production in the first seven months of 2006 was 3.9% higher in relation to the same period last year. Increases were recorded in 16 sectors, while falls were recorded in some sectors manufacturing industry: the manufacturing of tobacco products, clothes and fur, cellulose, paper and paper products, chemicals and chemical products, and rubber and plastic products. Compared to the previous month, a slight fall of 0.2% in July was recorded in industrial production due to a lower production of electricity, gas and water supply of 6.3%. The mining and quarrying sector and manufacturing industry recorded increases of 0.8% and 1.7%, respectively. An increase in industrial output in the last twelve months amounted to 10.4%. Graph 3 - Industrial output Source: Monstat Tourism The number of tourists in the first seven months of the current year was 17.7% higher than in the same period last year, whereby the number of foreign tourists rose by 39.5%, and the number of domestic tourists and tourists from Serbia by 6.8%. The registered number of overnight stays in this period amounted to 2.8 million, which is 17.6% more than in the comparative period in 2005, with an increase in the number of foreign tourist overnight stays of 48.8%. Transportation, Forestry, Construction Positive results were recorded in transportation in the first six months of A smaller volume was only registered in the transportation of passengers via railways and public transport, while all other transportation services recorded a higher turnover volume. The manufacturing of wood products in the first six months of the current year amounted to 80,896 m³, being 8.6% more than in the comparative period of At the same time, 80,095 m³ of wood products were sold, which is 29.3% more than in the comparative period of The value of performed construction work in the period January June 2006 amounted to EUR 78.7 million, being 192% more than in the same period last year. Observed through effective working hours, this increase is 76.4%. 11 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

12 Novčana masa Novčana masa M21 je u julu dostigla do sada najveći iznos od miliona eura. Ostvaren je rast novčane mase u odnosu na prethodni mjesec od 9,6%. U odnosu na kraj prošle godine novčana masa M21 je veća za 27,9%, a u odnosu na jul godine zabilježen je rast od 51,9%. Grafik br. 4 - Novčana masa M21, u eura Izvor: CBCG Ukupna aktiva banaka Ukupna aktiva banaka na kraju jula iznosila je 953,4 miliona eura, što predstavlja rast od 9,5% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, i rast od 37% u odnosu na kraj godine. U ukupnoj aktivi banaka u odnosu na prethodni mjesec porasla su: novčana sredstava i depoziti kod depozitnih institucija (22%), neto krediti (4,2%), hartije od vrijednosti (11,7%), ostala aktiva (4,6%) i rezervisanja za gubitke na ostale stavke aktive (16,5%), dok je smanjena pozicija rezervisanja za kreditne gubitke. Na strani pasive, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, porasli su depoziti ( 10,6%), pozajmice ( 12,7%) i ukupan kapital (4,1%), dok je zabilježen pad ostalih obaveza za 3,6%. Depoziti Ukupni depoziti su na kraju jula iznosili 703,2 miliona eura. U odnosu na prethodni mjesec depoziti su porasli za 10,6%, dok je njihov rast u odnosu na kraj godine iznosio 44,1%. U odnosu na jul godine zabilježen je rast depozita od 95,3%. U strukturi depozita najveće je bilo učešće depozita fizičkih lica, čiji je udio u ukupnim depozitima iznosio 40,3%, i privrednih društava u privatnom vlasništvu čiji je udio iznosio 29,2%. Značajno učešće od 7,6% u ukupnim depozitima u julu su imali i depoziti državnih fondova, banke i ostale finansijske institucije (4,7% i 3,8%). U apsolutnom iznosu u odnosu na prethodni mjesec najviše su porasli depoziti privrednih društava u privatnom vlasništvu za 32,3 miliona eura, fizičkih lica za 29,9 miliona eura, inostranih firmi za 7,2 miliona eura, kao i depoziti agencija i institucija Centralne Vlade za 1,2 miliona eura. Pad su bilježili depoziti finansijskih institucija i Centralne Vlade (za 1,5 i za 2,4 miliona eura). Ukupni depoziti i pozajmice banaka u julu su iznosili 798,6 miliona eura, dok su ukupno odobreni krediti iznosili 581,7 miliona eura. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 12

13 Broad money Broad money M21 recorded the highest level in July this year, amounting to EUR million, which is a 9.6% increase in relation to the previous month. Compared to end-2005 and July 2005, M21 rose by 27.9% and 51.9%, respectively. Graph 4 - Broad money (M21), EUR million Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Total Assets of Banks Total assets of banks amounted to EUR million at end-july this year, which represents a growth of 9.5% in comparison with the previous month, and a 37% increase in relation to end With regard to total assets of banks and compared to June this year, growths were recorded in monetary assets and deposits with depository institutions (22%), net loans (4.2%), securities (11.7%), other assets (4.6%), and provisions on other assets items (16.5%), whereas a fall was registered in loan loss provisions. The liabilities side recorded increases in deposits (10.6%), borrowings (12.7%), and total capital (4.1%), while other liabilities registered a fall of 3.6%. Deposits Total deposits in banks amounted to EUR million at end-july 2006, which is 10.6% and 44.1% more than in the previous month and at end-2005, respectively. Compared with the same month last year, deposits increased by 95.3%. The main share in the structure of deposits had deposits by households, 40.3%, followed by deposits by privately-owned companies, 29.2%. A significant share in total deposits in July this year belongs to deposits by government funds, 7.6%, as well as banks and other financial institutions, 4.7% and 3.8%, respectively. Presented in absolute amounts, the highest growths in relation to the previous month were recorded in deposits by privately-owned companies, EUR 32.3 million, households, EUR 29.9 million, foreign companies, EUR 7.2 million, and deposits by the Central Government agencies and institutions, EUR 1.2 million. A fall was recorded in deposits by financial institutions and the Central Government, EUR 1.5 million and EUR 2.4 million, respectively. Total deposits and borrowings of banks in July this year amounted to EUR million, while total loans granted amounted to EUR million. 13 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

14 Grafik br. 5 - Odobreni krediti, depoziti i pozajmice banaka, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Depoziti stanovništva U julu je ostvaren rast depozita stanovništva u odnosu na prethodni mjesec od 11,8%. U odnosu na kraj prethodne godine depoziti stanovništva su viši za 61,3%, dok su u odnosu na jul godine veći za 122,7%. Na kraju jula depoziti stanovnistva iznosili su 283,5 miliona eura. Od ukupnih depozita stanovništva 60,2% su bili depoziti po viđenju. U strukturi oročenih depozita stanovništva najveće je bilo učešće depozita oročenih od 3 mjeseca do godinu dana (82,8%), dok je iznos oročenih depozita do 3 mjeseca iznosio 9,7%. Depoziti oročeni od 1 do 3 godine predstavljali su 7,6% ukupno oročenih depozita, dok je 0,1% od ukupno orocenih depozita stanovništva, oročeno na period preko 3 godine. Grafik br. 6- Depoziti stanovništva ročnost, u milionima eura Izvor: CBCG Krediti Na kraju jula banke su potraživale 581,8 miliona eura na ime odobrenih kredita. Njihov rast u odnosu na prethodni mjesec je iznosio 4%. U odnosu na jul godine rast je iznosio 75%, dok su u odnosu na kraj godine ukupno odobreni krediti porasli za 54,8%. Krediti privredi predstavljali su 57,9%, dok su krediti domaćinstvima iznosili 33,1%, ukupno odobrenih kredita. Dvijema kategorijama ( privrednim društvima u privatnom vlasništvu i domaćinstvima) odobren je najveći dio kredita (85,5%). Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 14

15 Graph 5 - Loans granted, deposits and bank borrowings, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Deposits by Households Deposits by households increased in July this year by 11.8% in comparison with the previous month, amounting to EUR million. In relation to July and end-2005, these deposits rose by 122.7% and 61.3%, respectively. Of total deposits by households, 60.2% were demand deposits. In the structure of time deposits, the main share was of those termed from three months to one year (82.8%), whereas time deposits with an agreed maturity of up to three months accounted for 9.7%. Deposits with an agreed maturity from 1 to 3 years represented 7.6% of total time deposits, whereas deposits with an agreed maturity of over 3 years accounted for a mere 0.1%. Graph 6 - Deposits by households maturity, EUR million Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Loans Total claims of banks amounted to EUR million in July this year, which is 4% more than in the previous month. Compared to July and end-2005, claims by 75% and 54.8%, respectively. Loans granted to the corporate sector accounted for 57.9%, and those granted to households made up 33.1%, of total loans granted. The main portion of these loans, 85.5%, was disbursed to privately-owned companies and households. 15 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

16 Grafik br. 7 - Ukupni krediti i depoziti, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Na kraju jula ukupni depoziti privrede iznosili su 225,4 miliona eura,dok su krediti odobreni privredi iznosili 336,7 miliona eura, što znači da je privreda u ovom mjesecu predstavljala neto dužnika sistema. Fizička lica su imala veći iznos depozita od odobrenih kredita za 90,8 miliona eura i predstavljala su neto štedišu sistema. Grafik br. 8 - Krediti privrede i stanovništva, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Likvidnost U prvih sedam mjeseci godine bankarski sektor je karakterisala zadovoljavajuća likvidnost, o čemu govori znatno viši nivo raspoloživih likvidnih sredstava banaka u zemlji i inostranstvu od izvršenih plaćanja. Naime, ukupna sredstva banaka raspoloživa za plaćanje kretala su se, u posmatranom periodu, u intervalu od 151 do 281 milion eura i iznosila su prosječno 211 miliona eura, što je bilo dvostruko više iznad prosjeka ostvarenog u istom periodu godine (104 miliona eura). Izvršena plaćanja banaka konstantno su bila značajno niža od raspoloživih sredstava za plaćanje, i priosječno su iznosila 23 miliona eura tokom prvih sedam mjeseci ove godine, na osnovu čega je ostvarivan suficit u prosječnom iznosu od 188 miliona eura. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 16

17 Graph 7 - Total loans and deposits, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro At end-july, total deposits by the corporate sector amounted to EUR million, whereas the value of total loans granted to this sector amounted to EUR million, which means that the corporate sector represented a net debtor in this month. Households had EUR 90.8 million more deposits placed than borrowings, thus representing net depositors of the system. Graph 8 - Loans to the corporate sector and households, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Liquidity In the first seven months of 2006, liquidity of the banking sector was satisfactory, showing a much higher level of available assets of banks in the country and abroad than effected payments. Namely, available liquid assets of banks varied between EUR 151 and 281 million in the reporting period, the average being EUR 211 million, which is twice as much as the average recorded in the comparative period of 2005 (EUR 104 million). Banks` effected payments were constantly below the available liquid assets, the average in the reporting seven-month period being EUR 23 million, so the average recorded surplus amounted to EUR 188 million. 17 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

18 Obavezna rezerva Banke su na kraju jula ove godine izdvojile ukupno 106 miliona eura obavezne rezerve, što je 10,5% više u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, a 71,8% više u odnosu na kraj godine. Godišnja stopa rasta izdvojene obavezne rezerve iznosila je 130%. Struktura izdvojene obavezne rezerve pokazuje da je na račun obavezne rezerve u zemlji u julu je izdvojeno 51,3%, na račun Centralne banke u inostranstvu 43,6%, a u državnim zapisima izdvojeno 5,1%. Grafik br. 9 - Obavezna rezerva, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Izvor: CBCG Mikrokreditne finansijske institucije Ukupna aktiva mikrofinansijskih institucija u julu iznosila je 25,7 miliona eura i porasla je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 7,9%, dok su krediti koje su ove institucije odobrile klijentima iznosili 23,4 miliona eura i bili su 3% veći nego u prethodnom mjesecu. Struktura ukupne aktive MFI, kao i struktura odobrenih kredita od strane pojedinačnih MFI je slična. U ukupnoj aktivi, na kraju jula ove godine, i dalje je najveće učešće Agro investa i Altermodusa na koje se odnosi 95%. Kamatne stope (prosječne ponderisane aktivne, efektivne i nominalne) Prosječna ponderisana nominalna aktivna kamatna stopa smanjena je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 0,19 procentnih poena, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna aktivna kamatna stopa u istom periodu smanjena za 0,10 procentnih poena. Najveći pad kamatnih stopa u odnosu na prethodni mjesec ostvaren je u privatnom sektoru, gdje je prosječna ponderisana nominalna aktivna kamatna stopa smanjena za 0,21 procentni poen, a prosječna ponderisana efektivna aktivna kamatna stopa smanjena je za 0,13 procentnih poena. Posmatrano po djelatnostima najveći pad kamatnih stopa zabilježen je na kredite odobrene sektoru turizma, usluga i ugostiteljstva (PPNS- 0,65 procentnih poena, PPES- 0,18 procentnih poena). Snižene su PPNS i PPES pravnim licima ( 0,16 i 0,04 procentna poena) i fizičkim licima (0,52 i 0,74 procentna poena). Najveći pad kamatnih stopa na kredite odobrene fizičkim licima zabilježen je kod nerezidenata. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 18

19 Reserve Requirements At end-july 2006, banks allocated the total of EUR 106 million of the required reserve requirements, which is 10.5% and 71.8% more than in the previous month and at end-2005, respectively. The annual rate of growth in allocated reserve requirements was 130%. The structure of reserve requirements shows that 51.3% was allocated to the reserve requirement account in the country, 43.6% to the Central Bank of Montenegro`s international account, and 5.1% was allocated in Treasury bills. Graph 9 - Reserve requirements at end-periods, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Micro-Credit Financial Institutions (MFIs) In July this year, total assets of micro-credit financial institutions amounted to EUR 25.7 million, being 7.9% higher than in the previous month, while the value of loans these institutions disbursed to their clients was to EUR 23.4 million, which is an increase of 3%. The structure of total assets of, and loans granted by, MFIs, is similar. AgroInvest and Alter Modus continue to have the main share in total assets of MFIs, 95%. Interest Rates (average weighted lending rates, effective and nominal) The average weighted nominal lending interest rate and the corresponding effective interest rate recorded falls in July in comparison with the previous month of 0.19 and 0.10 percentage points, respectively. The severest falls in the respective interest rates was recorded in the private sector, 0.21 and 0.13 percentage points. Observed by key sectors, falls were recorded in interest rates on loans granted to the tourism, services and catering sector (AWNI by 0.65, and AWEI by 0.18, percentage points). The average weighted interest rates on loans granted to legal entities also fell in comparison with the previous month (AWNI by 0.16, and AWEI by 0.04, percentage points). With regard to households, the average weighted nominal interest fell by 0.52 percentage points, and the average weighted effective interest by 0.74 percentage points. The largest fall in interest rates on loans disbursed to households was recorded with those granted to non-residents. 19 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

20 Tržište novca U julu su realizovane dvije aukcije državnih zapisa sa rokom dospijeća 91 i 182 dana. Ukupno je emitovano i prodato zapisa u iznosu 1,8 miliona eura, dok je tražnja premašila ponudu za 174% i iznosila je 3,1 milion eura. Postignute su prosječene ponderisane kamatne stope od 0,90% i 2,96%. Kamatna stopa na 91- dnevne državne zapise bila je manja u odnosu na prethodnu aukciju za 0,58 procentnih poena, dok je na 182- dnevne državne zapise ostala na istom nivou. Tržište kapitala U julu je ostvaren najveći promet (24,2 miliona eura) na crnogorskim berzama u toku ove godine. Pored akcija preduzeća i investicionih jedinica PIF-ova, obveznica stare devizne štednje, obveznica rastitucije, na tržištu kapitala su se pojavile i obveznice za sanaciju drumskih puteva koje je emitovala Ministarstvo finansija Crne Gore. Berzanski indeks MOSTE porastao je za 20,3%, što predstavlja najveći stopu rasta ovog indeksa ostvarenog u toku ove godine. Dok su indeksi NEX i NEX PIF porasli za 18,9% i 18,3%, što predstavlja najveću mjesečnu stopu rasta indeksa NEX u toku ove godine, dok je NEX PIF imao veću mjesečnu stopu rasta samo u prethodnom mjesecu. Grafik br Kretanje indeksa Moste Izvor: Montenegroberza Grafik br Kretanje indeksa NEX20 i NEXPIF Izvor: Nex Montenegro berza Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 20

21 Money Market Two auctions were held in July, one of 91-day T-bills and one of 182-day T-bills. The total value of issued and sold T-bills was EUR 1.8 million, but demand exceeded the offer by 174%, amounting to EUR 3.1 million. The achieved weighted interest rates in the auctions amounted to 0.90% and 2.96%, respectively. The interest rate on 91-day T-bills was 0.58 percentage points lower than in the previous auction, while that on 182-day T-bills remained the same. Capital Market Total turnover in Montenegrin stock exchanges in July was the highest recorded in 2006 so far, amounting to EUR 24.2 million. Bonds for road reconstruction issued by the Ministry of Finance were also traded, in addition to shares of companies, investment units of privatisation-investment funds (PIFs), frozen foreign currency deposit (FFCD) bonds and restitution bonds. The MOSTE stock exchange index rose by 20.3%, which is the highest rate of increase recorded this year. The NEX and NEX PIF indices grew by 18.9% and 18.3%, respectively. While the growth in the NEX index represents the highest monthly increase recorded this year, a higher growth in the NEX PIF index was recorded in the previous month. Graph 10 - MOSTE index Source: Montenegroberza stock exschange Graph 11 - NEX20 and NEXPIF indices Source: Nex Montenegro stock exschange 21 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

22 Strane direktne investicije Tokom sedam mjeseci godine priliv po osnovu direktnih investicija u Crnu Goru iznosi 193,3 miliona eura, pri čemu se 191,7 miliona eura odnosi na ulaganja nerezidenata u Crnu Goru, a 1,6 miliona eura na povlačenje direktnih investicija koje su rezidenti Crne Gore uložili u inostranstvo. Odliv po osnovu direktnih investicija, u istom periodu iznosi 27,5 miliona eura od čega se 2,9 miliona eura odnosi na ulaganja rezidenata u inostranstvo a 24,5 miliona na povlačenje uloženog kapitala u Crnu Goru od strane nerezidenata (21 milion eura odnosi se na prodaju nepokretnosti fizičkih i pravnih lica, dok se 3,5 miliona eura odnosi na povlačenje udijela stranog kapitala u domaćim preduzećima i bankama). Posmatrajući strukturu priliva stranih direktnih investicija najviše je stranih direktnih investicija u Crnu Goru za sedam mjeseci godine usmjereno u nekretnine - 64% a zatim u domaća pravna lica - 34% ukupnog priliva. Grafik br. 12 Priliv stranih direktnih investicija po kvartalima , u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Grafik br. 13 Struktura priliva SDI u periodu januar jul 2006 Izvor : CBCG Grafik br Komponente tekućeg računa po kvartalima godine Izvor: CBCG i Monstat Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 22

23 Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) The inflow of foreign direct investments in Montenegro in the first seven months of 2006 amounted to EUR million, of which EUR million were investments by nonresidents, and EUR 1.6 million the withdrawal of direct investments which the Montenegro residents had invested abroad. The outflow of FDI in the same period totalled EUR 27.5 million, of which EUR 2.9 million referred to residents` investments abroad, and EUR 24.5 million the withdrawal of investments that non-residents had invested in Montenegro (EUR 21 million referred to the sale of real estate of private individuals and legal entities, and EUR 3.5 million to the withdrawal of a part of foreign capital in domestic companies and banks). With regard to the structure of FDI inflow, most of them were in real estate, 64%, and in domestic legal entities, 34%. Graph 12 FDI inflow by quarters, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Graph 13 Structure of FDI inflow, January July 2006 Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Graph 13 - Current account components by quarters, year Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat 23 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

24 Grafik br Pokrivenost robnog uvoza izvozom, , u % Izvor: CBCG i Monstat Grafik br Kvartalni uvoz i izvoz roba, , u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG i Monstat Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 24

25 Graph 14 - Visible import/export coverage, , in % Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat Graph 15 -Quarterly visible imports and export, , EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat 25 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

26 Statistički bilten I Monetarna statistika Statistical bulletin I Monetary Statistics Tabela Monetarni agregati (novčana masa), u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary aggregates (money supply) balance at end-periods, EUR thousand M0 Depoziti po viđenju* M1 Depoziti po viđenju** M11 Oročeni depoziti* M2 Oročeni depoziti** (1+2) 4 5 (1+4) 6 7 (3+6) 8 9 (5+8) *** *** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul July (1+2) 4 5 (1+4) 6 7 (3+6) 8 9 (5+8) M0 Demand deposits* M1 Demand deposits** M11 Time deposits* M2 Time deposits** M21 M21 * Bez depozita Vlade RCG; ** Uključujući depozite Vlade RCG *** Stanje na ; Izvor: CBCG * Without Government deposits; ** Including Government deposits *** Balance as at 31 XII 2005; Source: CBM Statistički bilten 26

27 Tabela Monetarni agregati (novčana masa), u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary aggregates (money supply) balance at end-months, EUR thousand M0 M1 M11 M2 M * * Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul July * Stanje na ; Izvor: CBCG * Balance as at 31 XII 2005; Source: CBM 27 Statistical Bulletin

28 Tabela Monetarni pregled - Bilans stanja CBCG, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary review - Balance sheet of CBM balance at end-periods, EUR thousand Monetarno zlato i SDR Strana valuta Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Depoziti HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostala potraživanja Ukupno Depoziti Ostale obaveze Ukupno Neto strana aktiva Potraživanja od banaka Domaći krediti Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od ostalih Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja sektora Ukupno Neto ostale stavke Obavezna rezerva Obaveze* Depoziti banaka Depoziti ostalih sektora Ostali depoziti Ukupno Po viđenju Oročeni Ukupno Ukupan kapital ) (8+9) 11 (7-10) (13-14) ( ) (19+20) (22+23) ** ** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul July Monetary gold and SDR holdings Foreign currency Deposits Securities other than shares 7 ( ) Loans Other claims Total Deposits (8+9) Other liabilities 11 (7-10) Total Net foreign assets Claims on banks Claims on central Government Liabilities to central Government 15 (13-14) 16 Net claims Claims on other sectors 17 ( ) Total Other items (net) (19+20) Net claims on central Government Banks deposits Deposits of other sectors Claims on nonresidents Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities* Reserve reqirement Other deposits Total Demand deposits Time deposits 24 (22+23) 25 Total Capital account * Centralna banka Crne Gore nema emisionu funkciju; euro je zvanično sredstvo plaćanja u Crnoj Gori ** Stanje na 31.XII 2005; Izvor: CBCG * The Central Bank of Montenegro cannot issue money; the EUR is the official means of payment in Montenegro ** Balance as at 31.XII 2005 Source: CBM Statistički bilten 28

29 Tabela Monetarni pregled - bilans banaka, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary review - Balance sheet of banks balance at end-periods, EUR thousand Strana valuta Depoziti Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostala potraživanja Ukupno Depoziti 6 ( ) HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostale obaveze Ukupno 11 ( ) Neto strana aktiva 12 (6-11) Potraživanja od CBCG Domaći krediti Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od ostalih Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja 16 (14-15) sektora 17 Ukupno 18 ( ) Neto ostale stavke Obaveze prema Centralnoj banci Depoziti po viđenju Obaveze Depoziti ostalih sektora Oročeni depoziti * * Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Ukupno 23 (21+22) Ukupan kapital Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul July ( ) ( ) 12 (6-11) (14-15) ( ) (21+22) 24 Currency in vaults Deposits Securities other than sheres * Stanje na Izvor: CBCG Loans Other claims Total Deposits Securities other than sheres Loans Other liabilities Total Net foreign assets Claims on Central Bank Claims on central Government Liabilities to central Governmetn Net claims Claims on other sectors Total Other items (net) Liabilities to the Central bank Demand depositsu Time deposits Total Capital account Net claims on central government Deposits of other sectors Claims on nonresident Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities * Balance as at 31 XII 2005; Source: CBM 29 Statistical Bulletin

30 Tabela 1.5- Monetarni pregled, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary review balance at end-periods, EUR thousand Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Neto strana aktiva CBCG Banke Ukupno CBCG Banke Ukupno Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Domaći krediti Potraživanja od ostalih sektora Ukupno Neto ostale stavke Neto domaća aktiva Depoziti po viđenju Obaveze* Oročeni depoziti Ukupno depoziti Kapital (1+2) (4+5) 7 (3-6) (8+9) (10+11) (13+14) ** ** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul July (1+2) (4+5) 7 (3-6) (8+9) (10+11) (13+14) 16 CBM Banks Total CBM Banks Total Net foreign assets Net claims on central government Claims on other sectors Total Other items (net) Net domestic assets Transferable deposits Claims on nonresidents Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities* Time deposits Total deposits Capital account * Centralna banka Crne Gore nema emisionu funkciju; euro je zvanično sredstvo plaćanja u Crnoj Gori ** Stanje na 31.XII 2005 izvor: CBCG * The Central Bank of Montenegro cannot issue money; the EUR is the official means of payment in Montenegro ** Balance as at 31.XII 2005; Source: CBM Statistički bilten 30

31 Tabela Agregatni bilans stanja banaka, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Aggregated balance sheet of banks balance at end-periods, EUR thousand AKTIVA PASIVA Novčana sredstva i depoziti kod dep. institucija Krediti Rezervisanja za kreditne gubitke Neto krediti Hartije od vrijednosti Ostala aktiva Rezervisanja za gubitke na ostale stavke aktive Depoziti Pozajmice Ostale obaveze Ukupan kapital Ukupno 10 ( = ) * * Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul July Financial resources and deposits Credits Loan loss provisions Net credits ASSETS Securities Other assets Loan loss provisions on other assets items Deposits Borrowings Other liabilities LIABILITIES Total capital 10 ( = ) Total * Stanje na Izvor: CBCG * Balance as at 31 XII 2005 Source: CBM Tabela Ukupni krediti banaka, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Total loans of banks balance at end-periods, EUR thousand I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Izvor: CBCG Source: CBM 31 Statistical Bulletin