Country Risk Conference Coface Country Risk
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1 WORLD OVERVIEW OF COUNTRY RISK Country Risk Conference Coface Country Risk > Johannesburg, South Conference Africa 2014 > 12 th June 2013 Thursday, 15 th May 2014 Johannesburg, South Africa 1
2 Agenda 8.30 am Breakfast 9.30 am Introduction Garth DE KLERK / CEO, Coface South Africa 9.45 am Economic Outlook, Business Climate & Emerging Markets Saijil SINGH / Lead Analyst, Coface South Africa am Tracking the Future Daniel SILKE / Independent Political Analyst am Q & A Session am Closing
3 Economic Outlook, Business Climate & Emerging Markets Saijil SINGH Lead Analyst, Coface South Africa 3
4 Contents The Global Situation BRICs and MINTs The Next Markets to Emerge Who will drive the future Global Economy March 2013 RECEIVABLES BOOK ANALYSIS TRAINING / MARCH
5 1 How is the Global Economy doing? March 2013 RECEIVABLES BOOK ANALYSIS TRAINING / MARCH
6 Spain Italy France Germany Euro Zone UK Japan USA Advanced Economies Emerging Economies World Global Growth is picking up GDP Growth (%) ,44, ,7 0,4 0,8 0,3 0,5 1,7 1,0 2,1 1,7 1,51,4 1,9 2,7 1,2 2,0 3,1 2, ,2-1,9-0,4 Sources: Coface, Datastream EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
7 Country risk and business climate assessment Advanced economies EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
8 e 2014p 2015p e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f Euro zone: Risks are still there Unemployment rate (European Commission forecasts) Public Debt scenarios (% GDP, Coface forecasts) Germany Austria Spain France Greece Ireland Italy Portugal France Italy Greece Portugal 2 20 Spain Source: European Commission Sources: IMF, Coface EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
9 Spain Japan Italy United Kingdom Euro zone France United States Germany Spain: Some light at the end of the tunnel Credit growth (%) Corporate Debt, % GDP 1% Spain: Credit to Corporates 15% % 10% % 5% % -3% 0% % -5% -5% -6% Month on Month -10% % Year on Year (RHS) -15% -8% -20% -9% -25% Sources Coface, Datastream Highest level of indebtedness since 2007 Sources : Coface, Banque de France EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
10 2 Are the BRICs here to stay? March 2013 RECEIVABLES BOOK ANALYSIS TRAINING / MARCH
11 BRIC Factsheet GDP GDP per Capita GDP GDP per Capita $ 2,518B $11,600 $ 1,791B $16,700 Population 205.7M EOB Index Rank 126 EOB Index Rank 120 Population Competitiveness Rank M Competitiveness Rank 66 GDP GDP per Capita GDP GDP per Capita $ 1,843B $3,700 $ 6,989B $8,400 Population 1.21B EOB Index Rank 132 EOB Index Rank 91 Population Competitiveness Rank B Competitiveness Rank 26 EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
12 BRIC Nations: Growth Slowdown GDP Growth (%) BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA SOUTH AFRICA (e) 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f) 2018(f) 2019(f) EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
13 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Emerging markets: A supply-constraint slowdown South. Af Russia GDP Growth (%) 3,6 1,9 2,5 4,8 1, Av (p) 2014 (p) 15% 10% Domestic demand (7 large emerging economies excluding China, Q/Q y-1,%) Household Consumption Investment India China 4,7 5 7,8 7,7 7,2 10,6 5% 0% -5% Brazil 2,3 1,7 3,8-10% Sources: datastream, Coface forecast Source: datastream EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
14 BRICS s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
15 BRICS s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
16 Country risk and business climate assessment CIS EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
17 BRICS s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
18 BRICS s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
19 China: tensions on the corporate sector Percentage of long overdue amount (more than 180 days) in domestic annual turnover 50% 40% 43.5% 35.8% 47.6% % 28.6% 25.8% 20% 10% 19.0% 18.9% 17.5% 11.4% 12.3% 9.4% 8.7% 5.7% 6.1% 9.7% 0% < 0.5% 0.5% - 2% 2%-5% 5%-10% > 10% Overdue payment unpaid for more than 6 months has a high chance to turn into bad debt, and companies with 6-months-or-longer overdue payment weighing more than 2% of their annual turnover could see liquidity problem. 22% of interviewed companies replied that longer overdue amount was larger than 5% of the reported domestic turnover in 2013 (18.1% in 2012). Chaori s default : a new era for Chinese corporate risk? EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
20 BRICS s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
21 MINTs : The new BRICs? EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
22 MINT Nations: Better than BRICS? GDP Growth (%) MEXICO INDONESIA NIGERIA TURKEY SOUTH AFRICA (e) 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f) 2018(f) 2019(f) EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
23 MINTs : Where are they going? EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
24 MINT s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
25 MINT s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
26 MINT s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
27 MINT s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
28 Emerging Economies: Income Disparities EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
29 0,5 1,1 1,7 1,6 2,3 2,5 2,6 2,4 3,2 3, ,1 4,2 5 5,4 Latin America Ecuador Peru Chile Venezuela Colombia Argentina Mexico Brazil 2014 Latin America s outlook : resilient but under Emerging market average 6 5 ave f 2014f GDP Growth Latin America EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
30 Country risk and business climate assessment Latin America EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
31 Emerging Markets: Graduate Mobility Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
32 3 Who will now pick up the flag? March 2013 RECEIVABLES BOOK ANALYSIS TRAINING / MARCH
33 «New» Emerging players : CIPPS GDP Growth (%) Columbia Indonesia Peru Phillipines Sri lanka (e) 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f) 2018(f) 2019(f) EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
34 CIPPS s Export Partners Columbia % Exported 2008 % Exported 2013 % Exported USA China Spain Panama Venuzeula Netherlands EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
35 CIPPS s Export Partners EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
36 CIPPS s Export Partners Peru EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
37 CIPPS s Export Partners Philippines EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
38 CIPPS s Export Partners Sri Lanka EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
39 KTZBE Nations: High Risk and Good Returns GDP Growth (%) KENYA TANZANIA ZAMBIA BANGALADESH ETHIOPIA (e) 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f) 2018(f) 2019(f) EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
40 KBETZ s Export Partners Kenya EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
41 KBETZ s Export Partners Bangladesh EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
42 KBETZ s Export Partners Ethiopia EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
43 KBETZ s Export Partners Tanzania EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
44 KBETZ s Export Partners Zambia EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
45 «New» Emerging players : Why the grouping? Good Growth Resilience to Global shocks Political Stability Pronounced benefit of trade with BRIC nations Positive infrastructure developments Improving financial systems Better socio-economic and education policies Good Growth Resilience to Global shocks Political threat Lack of good trade agreements Poor infrastructure Developing financial systems and policies Poorer socio-economic and education policies EMERGING MARKETS 2.0 COFACE RISK CONFERENCE
46 WORLD OVERVIEW OF COUNTRY RISK Country Risk Conference Coface Country Risk > Johannesburg, South Conference Africa 2014 > 12 th June 2013 Thursday, 15 th May 2014 Johannesburg, South Africa 46
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