WEEKLY INSIGHT. November 14, 2016

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1 WEEKLY INSIGHT November 14, 2016 Politics triggering major asset allocation shifts The surprising results of the US elections had also strong repercussion in Europe, with the Eurostoxx50 December exhibiting a wide 8% movement between the post-results lows at 2874 and the highs touched on November 10 at 3100 points. A break above this level (and better 3130) is needed to generate a strong bullish signal. On the downside key supports lie at 3015 and 2980 points. At the sector level, healthcare and financials were the major beneficiaries. Instead, energy, utilities and IT lagged. Also commodity had a divergent performance with oil and precious metals under pressure, negatively impacted by a stronger greenback and dissipating hopes of an OPEC production cut, and industrial metals grinding higher. The major looser was the fixed income market and government bonds in particular. Based on campaign speeches, Trump is seen as sustaining growth (via a cut in taxes and higher budget deficits) and adopting trade protections measures that, united with higher growth rates, could push inflation up in the US. This has therefore exerted strong upward pressure on US government yields, which has spilled over to Europe and the rest of the world (fund flows). EM assets have also suffered from the stronger dollar and the uncertainty linked to the future US foreign and trade policy. HY witnessed some spread widening, but behaved well than investment-grade credits. We stay cautious and prefer adopting a prudent duration stance and favor taking credit risks. We continue to privilege US over EU fixed income markets. We still like hard currency EM bonds, but are turning more defensive on increased uncertainty. A volatile week for US financial assets amid Trump s victory Last week has been one of the most volatile of the year on a surprising Trump election victory. The impact of this result has been strong on all markets from FX, bonds to equities. The S&P500 posted a 3.8% rise led Financials, Industrials and Healthcare while the 10Y treasury yield surged 40 bps above 2.2%. Also the USD appreciated against most major currencies, but the GBP. The biggest move came from the MXN down more than 10% over a few days. In that context, we recommended to upgrade our equity allocation from underweight to slightly overweight in order to benefit from the post election short correction (good entry point) as well as from the positive momentum which seems to get in place on US equities. In addition, for those still holding cash, the bond market is offering an attractive investment opportunity after credit spreads widened and the USD reference interest rates increased. This week, investors may look at job's report even if is unlikely to have significant implications on Fed policy revision. The probability of a rate hike in December is now more than 84% with a strong bias for a +50bps move. Asian currencies sank on Trump effect The market impact from Donald Trump s win over Clinton in the US presidential election has been surprisingly mild to the global markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slightly fell (-0.06% w/w) on mixed performance between the regions and currencies from export dominance nations sank as Trump vowed to restrict imports. The Indonesia s rupiah (-2.4% w/w) and South Korea s won (-1.8% w/w) have dipped to their weakest levels in more than four months while the Malaysia s ringgit (-3.4% w/w) dropped to its lowest since January. For China, while the yuan (-0.8%w/w) continues to tumble to a six-year low, the Shanghai Composite (+2.26% w/w) rallied for five consecutive weeks supported by commodity and construction companies as the economy continue to show signs of stabilization. The latest October s consumer price index (CPI) grew 2.1% YoY, up from September s 1.9% and ended previous drops in the past five months. The Nikkei 225 (+2.78%w/w) rallied on a weaker yen (-3.4% w/w) post US election which provided space for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to reconsider its policy options on the Trump effect. Interest rates: move your body Trump s triumph should bring inflation back to the US, which seems to drive interest rates higher. The US 10-year spiked and is back to its beginning of the year level, a yield that is key to attract institutional investors and that puts EM yields under pressure. Indeed, the ishares EM Bond ETF has shed 5% over two days, offering an interesting entry point for investor willing to come back to this asset class. At the same time, as the Italian referendum get closer, the local market faces international pressure and Italian bonds dropped. The BTP 2026 (10 year maturity) is down 2.5% in two days, down 5% in a month and down 8% since end of August. 3.0% 2.5% Spread US 2Y US 10Y Period average Period average Spread Italy 10Y US 10Y 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% Source : Bloomberg, CBH % 1

2 EUROPE MSCI EUROPE % -2.4% -7.2% 16 STOXX % -2.6% -7.7% 16 STOXX 50 3' % -0.6% -7.3% 14 CAC 40 4' % -0.3% -3.2% 15 DAX 10' % -0.7% -0.7% 13 FTSE 100 6' % -2.7% 7.8% 16 IBEX 35 8' % -0.9% -9.5% 15 MIB 16' % -0.9% -21.5% 17 PSI 20 4' % -9.2% -17.6% 15 SMI 7' % -5.0% -10.6% 17 MSCI EUROPE 1W 1M 3M YTD Est. P/E Cons. Disc. 1.3% -1.3% -2.9% -11.1% 13 Cons.Staples -2.4% -7.3% -10.6% -7.4% 20 Energy 0.2% -3.7% -0.2% 7.5% 23 Financials 7.7% 8.2% 10.7% -10.9% 12 Health Care 5.2% -2.8% -8.4% -14.8% 16 Industrials 3.2% -0.8% -2.5% 1.2% 17 Inf. Technology 0.0% -7.6% -7.0% -6.6% 20 Materials 6.1% 4.7% 7.5% 19.6% 19 Telecom Serv. -1.5% -3.5% -10.1% -21.4% 17 Utility -4.1% -4.5% -12.3% -14.1% 14 Germany ZEW Expectation Nov Germany Manufacturing Orders MoM Sep 0.2% -0.6% Eurozone GDP SA QoQ 3Q P % Germany Industrial Production SA Sep -0.5% -1.8% France CPI YoY Oct F % France Industrial Production MoM Sep -0.3% -1.1% Italy Real GDP QoQ SA 3Q P Netherlands CPI YoY Oct [0.4%] 0.4% Germany GDP SA QoQ 3Q P % Ireland YoY Oct % Eurozone CPI All Items YoY Oct F % Italy Industrial Production MoM Sep -1.0% -0.8% EU GE CH UK 2Y -0.60% -0.1% -0.3% 0.1% 10Y 0.31% -1.7% -3.9% 2.5% 2Y -0.60% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 10Y 0.31% -1.3% -2.9% 3.3% 2Y -0.92% -0.1% -0.3% -0.8% 10Y -0.17% -1.3% -2.9% 1.1% 2Y 0.24% -0.2% -0.3% 1.0% 10Y 1.36% -1.7% -5.0% 6.3% Corporates 1-5Y* 0.31% -0.2% -0.3% 2.0% HY IG 5-10Y* 0.97% -1.0% -2.1% 5.7% 10+Y* 1.60% -2.3% -5% 10.8% 1-5Y* 3.57% -0.1% 0.7% 5.8% 5-10Y* 4.10% -0.4% 0.3% 8.7% 10+Y* 4.79% -1.7% -3.8% 7.2% * quoted in EUR EUR vs. AUD % 0.6% 3.6% CHF % 1.3% 1.3% GBP % -0.3% -14.5% JPY % -2.1% 12.8% USD % 2.8% 0.1% BRL % -5.1% 16.5% MXN % -10.2% -17.3% NOK % 0.7% 5.5% RUB % 0.3% 11.0% SEK % -4.5% -6.9% ECB % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% BOE % 0.25% 0.15% 0.15% SNB % -0.70% -0.70% -0.70% Euro GE FR IT ES PT UK CH GDP (% change Y/Y) GDP (% change Q/Q) Inflation rate (Y/Y) Unemployment rate (%) Debt (as % of GDP)

3 NORTH AMERICA MSCI NORTH AM. 2' % -1.2% 6.1% 18 S&P 500 2' % -1.0% 5.9% 18 DOW JONES 18' % 1.3% 8.2% 17 NASDAQ 5' % 0.2% 4.6% 22 TORONTO 14' % -1.6% 11.9% 19 MEXICAN IPC 44' % -7.0% 4.7% 20 MSCI USA 1W 1M 3M YTD Est. P/E Cons. Disc. 3.8% 0.9% -2.5% 2.0% 19 Cons.Staples -2.1% -2.9% -7.7% 0.1% 20 Energy 2.4% -2.3% 1.0% 12.8% 154 Financials 11.1% 10.6% 11.4% 11.5% 14 Health Care 6.0% 0.1% -5.7% -2.4% 16 Industrials 7.8% 6.4% 2.8% 14.1% 19 Inf. Technology 1.5% -1.0% 0.8% 9.1% 17 Materials 3.5% 3.1% -1.4% 10.0% 19 Telecom Serv. 0.1% -5.6% -13.6% 3.9% 14 Utility -3.9% -2.1% -9.1% 6.2% 16 Retail Sales Advance MoM Oct % Mexico Consumer Confidence Oct US Industrial Production MoM Oct % Canada Housing Starts Oct 195.0K US CPI Urban Consumers MoM SA Oct % Mexico CPI MoM Oct 0.6% 151.0K US New Housing Starts Oct K Mexico CPI YoY Oct 3.1% 3.1% Canada CPI YoY NSA Oct % US Initial Jobless Claims SA Nov K 254 US Leading Index Oct % U. of Mich Consumer Sentiment Nov P US CANADA 1-3Y 0.99% -0.3%- -0.1%- 1.1% - 3-5Y 1.44% -1.1%- -1.1%- 2.2% - 5-7Y 1.79% -2.0%- -2.2%- 2.8% Y 2.07% -2.9% -3.8% 2.9% 1-3Y 0.63% -0.2%- 0.0% - 0.2% - 3-5Y 0.80% -0.7%- -0.7%- 0.0% - 5-7Y 1.03% -1.3%- -1.5%- 0.6% Y 1.34% -2.0% -2.8% 1.1% Corporates 1-5Y* 2.06% -0.5%- -0.2%- 3.2% Y* 3.17% -1.5%- -1.6%- 6.6% - 10+Y* 4.51% -3.2% -5.0% 10.6% IG HY 1-5Y* 6.83% -0.1%- 1.8% % Y* 6.38% -0.2%- 0.4% % - 10+Y* 7.48% -0.7% 1.4% 26.2% * quoted in USD USD vs. AUD % -2.1% 3.5% CHF % -1.5% 1.2% EUR % -2.7% -0.1% GBP % -2.9% -14.5% JPY % -4.7% 12.7% BRL % -7.6% 16.4% ILS % -0.6% 1.3% MXN % -12.6% -17.4% RUB % -2.4% 10.7% FED % 0.70% 0.75% 0.90% BOC % 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% BdeM % 4.90% 4.95% 5.20% US CA MXN GDP (% change Y/Y) GDP (% change Q/Q) Inflation rate (Y/Y) Unemployment rate (%) Debt (as % of GDP)

4 ASIA MSCI ASIA PACIFIC % -2.7% 2.6% 14 NIKKEI ' % 3.8% -8.7% 18 HANG SENG 22' % -0.2% 2.8% 12 SHANGAI 3' % 6.4% -9.7% 15 SENSEX 26' % -3.7% 2.7% 18 KOSPI 1' % -3.1% 1.2% 11 S&P/ASX 200 5' % -2.5% 1.4% 16 MSCI ASIA-PAC 1W 1M 3M YTD Est. P/E Cons. Disc. -2.0% -4.5% -3.3% -3.6% 14 Cons.Staples -4.2% -7.2% -7.5% -1.3% 22 Energy -0.4% -4.8% 1.2% 10.5% 18 Financials 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 10 Health Care -0.2% -6.0% -8.2% -2.9% 25 Industrials 0.1% -0.8% -0.7% 4.4% 15 Inf. Technology -2.9% -5.5% -1.4% 11.2% 17 Materials 2.2% 2.7% 5.4% 20.4% 17 Telecom Serv. -4.9% -8.7% -13.0% 1.5% 13 Utility -3.7% -3.3% -5.8% -4.7% 12 India Exports YoY Oct [4.6%] Taiw an CPI YoY NSA Oct 0.5% 1.7% Japan Industrial Production MoM Sep F [0.0%] China CPI YoY Oct 2.1% 50.4 Japan GDP Real QoQ% SA 3Q P % Japan Producer Price Index YoY Oct -2.6% -2.7% China Industrial Production YoY Oct % Malaysia GDP 3Q 4.0% 4.3% Australia Unemployment Rate Oct % Hong Kong Qtrly GDP 3Q 1.5% 1.9% Philippines GDP YoY 3Q % India Industrial Production Sep 0.5% 0.7% JAPAN AUSTRALIA 1-3Y -0.24% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3-5Y -0.17% -0.2% -0.1% 0.6% 5-7Y -0.14% -0.3% -0.3% 1.0% 7-10Y -0.07% -0.4% -0.6% 2.2% 1-3Y 1.76% -0.1% -0.2% 1.9% 3-5Y 1.89% -0.3% -1.1% 2.8% 5-7Y 2.16% -0.8% -2.3% 3.7% 7-10Y 2.46% -1.6% -4.2% 4.7% Corporates 1-5Y* 0.12% -0.1% 0.1% 0.4% IG 5-10Y* 0.36% -0.3% -0.1% 1.6% 10+Y* 0.69% -0.4% -0.8% 6.0% * quoted in JPY USD vs. AUD % -2.1% 3.5% HKD % 0.0% -0.1% JPY % -4.7% 12.7% NZD % -1.6% 4.0% SGD % -4.9% 0.3% CNY % -2.6% -4.7% IDR 13' % -2.1% 3.0% INR % -0.6% -1.6% KRW 1' % -5.6% 0.9% MYR % -7.8% -1.1% RBA % 1.50% 1.45% 1.35% BOJ % 0.00% -0.10% -0.10% RBNZ % 1.75% 1.70% 1.65% RBIN % 6.15% 6.05% 6.00% PBOC % 4.30% 4.25% 4.20% CN JP IN AU NZ SK HK SI GDP (% change Y/Y) GDP (% change Q/Q) Inflation rate (Y/Y) Unemployment rate (%) Debt (as % of GDP)

5 EM & OTHER COUNTRIES MSCI EMERING MKT % -6.4% 6.9% 13 MSCI EM LATAM 2' % -12.2% 20.6% 15 MSCI EAST EUROPE % -0.9% 15.6% 8 MSCI SOUTH AFRICA 1' % -11.3% -1.1% 16 TEL AVIV 25 1' % -2.9% -6.8% 13 RUSSIAN RTS % 1.8% 28.2% 7 FTSE/JSE AFRICA 43' % -2.7% -3.9% 17 IBOVSPA BRAZIL 59' % 1.5% 36.5% 15 MSCI EM 1W 1M 3M YTD Est. P/E Cons. Disc. -5.2% -9.4% -9.8% -0.7% 16 Cons.Staples -6.0% -10.4% -13.7% -1.4% 23 Energy -2.5% -5.0% 1.6% 22.1% 11 Financials -3.2% -4.7% -5.2% 6.2% 9 Health Care -0.8% -6.3% -10.6% -5.2% 24 Industrials -2.9% -5.9% -8.9% -1.9% 15 Inf. Technology -3.5% -6.8% -2.8% 14.2% 17 Materials 0.3% 1.2% -3.1% 25.8% 13 Telecom Serv. -4.6% -8.3% -12.3% -3.0% 16 Utility -5.6% -7.2% -12.3% 0.0% 9 Russia GDP YoY 3Q A Chile Economic Activity YoY Sep 2.2% 51.1 Brazil Formal Job Creation Oct Chile CPI MoM NSA Oct 0.3% 0.2% Russia Industrial Production Oct % Brazil IBGE Inflation IPCA MoM Oct 0.3% 0.3% Russia Unemployment Rate Oct % South Africa Manufacturing Prod. Sep 0.5% 0.0% Russia Retail Sales Real YoY Oct % Brazil Retail Sales MoM Sep -5.5% -5.9% Chile GDP YoY 3Q % Russia Trade Balance Sep 6.9B 7.4B IL 2Y 0.14% -0.1% -0.5% 0.5% 10Y 2.01% -1.4% -4.0% 0.7% BZ 2Y 12.01% -0.4% 3.2% - 10Y 12.06% -3% 2% - USD vs. ARS % -4.1% -15.5% BRL % -7.6% 16.4% RU 2Y 8.68% -0.1% 0.9% 4.0% 10Y 8.92% -1.5% -3.6% 5.3% CL 2Y 3.55% 0.0% 1.2% - 10Y 4.18% -1.7% -2.5% 0.6% CLP % -3.9% 5.9% ILS % -0.6% 1.3% RUB % -2.4% 10.7% SA 2Y 8.09% -0.5% 1.1% 8.4% 10Y 9.16% ZAR % -6.8% 8.0% BOI % 0.10% 0.10% 0.25% BCB % 13.65% 12.80% 11.90% BCCE % 3.80% 3.65% 3.60% CBR % 10.00% 9.50% 9.05% SARB % 6.90% 7.20% 7.15% IL RU SA BZ AR CL GDP (% change Y/Y) GDP (% change Q/Q) Inflation rate (Y/Y) Unemployment rate (%) Debt (as % of GDP)

6 COMMODITIES LAST LAST 6M 1W 3M YTD COMMODITY INDEX % -1.9% 4.9% PRECIOUS METALS 1' % -9.9% 18.4% GOLD ($/oz.) 1' % -8.8% 15.6% SILVER ($/oz.) % -13.5% 25.2% PLATINUM ($/t oz.) % -18.6% 5.1% ENERGY % -4.4% -6.5% WTI CRUDE ($/bbl.) % -5.0% -1.0% BRENT CRUDE ($/bbl.) % -5.3% -0.5% NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu) 3-5.3% -14.2% -5.3% INDUSTRIAL METALS % 9.1% 21.7% STEEL ($/T.) % -17.4% 25.8% ALUMINUM ($/mt) 1' % 6.1% 15.8% COPPER ($/lb.) % 14.0% 16.4% SOFT COMMODITIES % 6.8% 25.1% CORN ($/bu.) % 2.0% -11.2% WHEAT ($/bu.) % -7.8% -20.6% GOLD Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 WTI CRUDE OIL Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 $/oz $/bbl IMPRINT Publication date : All data as of : Disclaimer This publication has been prepared on behalf of CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique SA. It is not investment advice or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique SA makes no representation that it is accurate or complete. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the economist(s), analyst(s), trading adviser(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. Neither CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique SA nor any of its officers or employees accepts any liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique SA and any of its officers, employees, related and discretionary accounts may, to the extent not disclosed above and to the extent permitted by law, have long or short positions or may otherwise be interested in any transactions or investments (including derivatives) referred to in this publication. In addition, CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique SA may provide banking, insurance or asset management services for, or solicit such business from, any company referred to this publication. Any investments referred to herein may involve significant risk, are not necessarily available in all jurisdictions, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of, or income from, any investments referred to herein may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not indicative of future result. Investors should make their own investment decisions without relying on this publication. Only investors with sufficient knowledge and experience in financial matters to evaluate the merits and risks should consider an investment in any recommendation, issue or market discussed herein and other persons should not take any action on the basis of this publication. The Bank s recommendations are based on its exclusive use of secondary analysis starting generally with investment grade securities, which are then screened according to various criteria. Copyright and database rights protection exists in this publication and it may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of CBH Compagnie Bancaire Helvétique SA. All rights are reserved. 6