George Linatsas Group Managing Director Axia Ventures Group

Transcription

1 Investment Opportunities For Foreign Investors In The Greek Stock Market George Linatsas Group Managing Director Axia Ventures Group December 2, 2010

2 The Athens Exchange General Index has reached multi-year low Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 2

3 ATHEX General Index decoupling from PIIGS & European markets 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, /10/10 26/11/10 26/11/07 26/12/07 26/01/08 26/02/08 26/03/08 26/04/08 26/05/08 26/06/08 26/07/08 26/08/08 26/09/08 26/10/08 26/11/08 26/12/08 26/01/09 26/02/09 26/03/09 26/04/09 26/05/09 26/06/09 26/07/09 26/08/09 26/09/09 26/10/09 26/11/09 26/12/09 26/01/10 26/02/10 26/03/10 26/04/10 26/05/10 26/06/10 26/07/10 26/08/10 26/09/10 ATHEX GI ISEQ (Ireland) PSI (Portugal) IBEX 35 (Spain) FTSE All Cap Italy STOXX 600 3

4 Market Cap to GDP at the lowest levels since % 90.0% 80.6% 89.3% 75.0% 67.9% 60.0% 45.0% 30.0% 15.0% 34.8% 24.7% 21.6% 0.0% 4 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010

5 Net flows from International Investors in decline (EUR m.) * *Jan-Oct

6 Average traded daily value (EUR m.) heading south since * *Jan-mid. Nov

7 Spreads of 10-Year GGB vs. the German BUND reach record highs in /11/ /1/ /3/ /5/ /7/ /9/ /11/2010 7

8 so do the Credit Default Swaps (5-Year) Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 8

9 The austerity measures drive unemployment (%) higher Jan.08 Apr.08 Jul.08 Oct.08 Jan.09 Apr.09 Jul.09 Oct.09 Jan.10 Apr.10 Jul.10 9

10 and pressure consumer sentiment at low levels (units) Jan.08 Apr.08 Jul.08 Oct.08 Jan.09 Apr.09 Jul.09 Oct.09 Jan.10 Apr.10 Jul.10 Greece EU27 10

11 The austerity measures also impact corporate profitability 2010f EPS Downgrades since June 2009* -4.77% EPS Downgrade Jun.09 - Jan % EPS Downgrade Jan.10 - Jun % EPS Downgrade Jun.10 - Nov.10 *Factset 11

12 In this challenging environment the characteristics to look at Strong Management Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Promising Business Model Income Stream from Abroad Well Diversified Product Mix 12

13 International Sales as % of Total for Selected Companies* Listed in the ATHEX 100% 95% 90% 90% 80% 75% 75% 60% 50% 40% 20% 0% Frigoglass Coca Cola Hellenic Intralot Mytilineos Titan Cement Folli Follie *Group FY09 figures 13

14 ATHEX General Index vs. Performance of Selected Companies 2,350 2,150 1,950 1,750 1,550 1,350 1, ATHEX GI TITAN MYTILINEOS INTRALOT FRIGOGLASS FOLLI-FOLLIE Coca Cola Hellenic 14

15 The focus remains on Macros and the Banking Sector Delays in the consolidation of the banking sector MoU - Austerity Measures & Structural Reforms Banks Stress Tests Vote of confidence of intl. markets to reforms & success of NBG s capital raising May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 15

16 The Greek Banking system although has displayed significant strength July 2010 Stress Tests by CEBS Adverse scenario Adverse scenario + sovereign shock (23.1% haircut on 5- year GGBs) TIER 1 National Bank of Greece 11.3% 9.6% 7.4% PASS Alpha Bank 11.6% 10.9% 8.2% PASS EFG Eurobank 11.2% 10.2% 8.2% PASS Piraeus Bank 9.1% 8.3% 6.0% PASS ATE Bank 8.4% 8.9% 4.4% FAIL Hellenic Postbank 17.1% 15.0% 8.4% PASS Bank of Cyprus 10.5% 9.4% 8.0% PASS Marfin Popular Bank 9.4% 8.5% 7.1% PASS 16

17 has embarked to substantial recapitalization efforts Rights Issue Convertible Bond Other National Bank of Greece EUR 631m / concluded EUR 1184m / concluded c.eur 1000m - sale of c20% of Finansbank / H1:11 Piraeus Bank EUR 800m / Q1:11 up to EUR 250m / H1:11 Bank of Cyprus EUR 345m / concluded Marfin Popular Bank EUR 488.6m / Q1:11 up to EUR 660m / H1:11 ATEbank TBA c.eur1000m / Q1:11 17

18 A well capitalized Banking Sector along with an improved sentiment on the economy could produce significant opportunities S&P 500 Financials /2/2009 6/5/2009 6/8/2009 6/11/2009 6/2/2010 6/5/2010 6/8/2010 6/11/

19 Disclaimer Axia Ventures Group Limited, which is responsible for issuing this marketing document, ( Axia ) is incorporated in Cyprus and is authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission. Axia is allowed to provide investment services in the United Kingdom and in Greece as well pursuant to its permissions under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and may also provide similar services in the United States. All statements of opinion contained in this marketing document, all views expressed and all projections, forecasts or statements relating to expectations regarding future events or the possible future performance of Axia represent Axia s own assessment based on information available to it as at the date of this document. No representation is made or warranty given as to the accuracy, completeness, achievability or reasonableness of any such projections, views, statements, or forecasts. The projections, views, statements and forecasts herein are based upon various assumptions and estimates, which Axia considers to be reasonable assumptions and estimates, which involve significant elements of subjective judgement and analysis and which are subject to uncertainties and contingencies; actual results could differ materially from those set forth in any such projections, views, statements and forecasts. 19