Management Presentation. March 2014

Transcription

1 Management Presentation March 2014

2 1 1. Ülker: Who we are? 2. Key Investment Highlights 3. Financials 4. Appendix

3 We are the leading name in Turkish confectionery years of experience in Turkish confectionery Leader in biscuit and chocolate category with 47% market share in each; #2 in cake category with 32% market share 1Q14 Largest production capacity in the domestic market with spread out facilities Consolidated annual net sales of TL 2.75 bn in 2013 A gateway to the Middle East, Northern Africa and EU, with exports to those regions accounting for c.20% of revenues Key figures TL mn 1Q 2014 Mcap as of 03/31/2014 5,147 Revenues (LTM) 2,825 EBITDA (LTM) 326 EBITDA margin % (LTM) 11.5% Topkapı, Istanbul Chocolate Established in 1991 Capacity: 194k tons/year 68k sqm closed area Silivri, Istanbul Chocolate, chocolate covered biscuit Established in 1995 Capacity: 30k tons/year 12k sqm closed area Production Facilities Istanbul Gebze Hadımkoy, Istanbul Cake Established in 1992 Capacity: 45k tons/year 27k sqm closed area Karaman Ankara Karaman Biscuit, cake, cracker & chocolate Established in 1986 Capacity: 123k tons/year 102k sqm closed area Non-Ülker branded products 75% owned by Ülker Biscuit & cracker Established in 1997 Capacity: 85.5k tons/year 41k sqm closed area Biscuit Gebze Ankara Established in 1969 Capacity: 126k tons/year 86k sqm closed area The largest biscuit manufacturing facility in the Middle East Shareholding Structure (As of ) Sales 1Q14 k tons TL mn % share Biscuits % Chocolate % Cake % Excludes other non-confectionary sales of TL 20 mn Yıldız Holding is Turkey s leading food and beverages group with annual gross sales of TL12.4 bn as of 2012

4 ... and the Best Recognized FMCG brand... 3 Best Recognized Brands Brand One Feels Close To Consistently # 1 ranks as one of the best recognized brands in Turkey # 2 # 3 # 4 The Brand Award (International Brands Conference, 2011) The Best in the Sweet and Salty Category (Silver Effie Award, Ülker Rondo, 2011) Most Recognized Company (AC Nielsen, 2 nd place, 2010) # 5 Ülker has always been the most recognized brand and closest to consumers Strength of the brand is proven by national and international awards Source: ACNielsen 2011 Long lasting relationships with end users enhance brand perception Highly-popular sub-brands are in the market for 2-3 decades Ülker brand essence and campaign theme: Happy moments with Ülker Arçelik is a household durable goods brand

5 Chocolate Biscuit...with dominant positions in growing markets 4 Market leader in main categories Growth in Biscuit (Volume) BISCUITS CHOCOLATES CAKES Market Size (1Q14 LTM) Market Share (1Q14) (Volume based) 285K Tons 167K Tons 77K Tons 47% 47% 32% Market Position # 1 # 1 # 2 # 1 in Petit Beurre Segment Growth in Chocolate (Volume) * # 1 in Chocolate Covered Sandwich Segment # 1 in Special Biscuits Segment # 1 in Cracker Segment # 1 in Creamy Biscuits Segment # 1 in Sandwich Biscuits Segment Top 3 in Chocolate Covered Segment #1 in Spread Chocolate Segment Retail market

6 Milestones of our success Established as a small scale family run bakery Revenues Mcap US$ mn Numerous minority shareholders triggered the listing of Anadolu Gıda on İstanbul Stock Exchange Ülker Gıda merged under its own title with Anadolu Gıda Appointment of Murat Ülker as Chairman of Ülker and Yıldız Holding: new generation & new vision Ülker Gıda changed its name to Ülker Bisküvi: Emphasis on core business Mcap as of year-end Acquisition of 25% stake in the premium chocolatier brand Godiva Ülker Bisküvi investment: US$214 mn Rapid growth led to complex corporate structure 4 sales companies, 4 production companies and minority stakes in 7 non-core assets : Restructuring at all fronts New top management on board 2011 Gathering all chocolate and cake businesses under Ülker Bisküvi Disposal of 6 non-core assets. Reduced Godiva stake to 19% - recorded TL 100mn profit 2012 Simplified traditional channel distribution merger of production companies with sales companies; consolidation of all sales under new sales company Horizon 2013 SKU optimization 502 SKUs in 2010 vs. 330 SKUs in 2013 Cancellation of privileged shares and founder shares New dividend policy minimum 70% of distributable income Free Float reached 40% after Yıldız Holding s block sale : Ülker Biskuvi acquired 30% minority stake in Biskot Divested stakes in Istanbul Gıda, Birleşik Dış Ticaret and Rekor

7 6 1. Ülker: Who we are? 2. Key Investment Highlights 3. Financials 4. Appendix

8 Key investment highlights 7 1 Top-line growth driven by... Growing market - young population with increasing purchasing power spending more on packaged foods Ülker - Regaining market share through optimization of SKU portfolio, category expansions and new product launches, unlocking distribution power and new account additions 2 Further margin improvement to be realized on the back of... Simplified and efficient distribution network Effective OPEX management Increasing share of higher margin chocolate sales 3 High barriers to entry c.50% market share across the main categories Strong brand equity in Turkey and in neighboring countries Access to an exclusive distribution network reaching ~200,000 sales points Largest production capacity in the domestic market is the best recognized FMCG brand in Turkey 4 Targeting to become a regional player in markets with high growth potential Geographical expansion already on the way Saudi Arabia and Egypt Seeking further international opportunities in high growth markets 5 Godiva: Hidden value US$700 mn revenue business - Global premium chocolate brand with significant brand equity worldwide Investing in store expansion, especially in the Middle East, China, Japan, Korea and Indonesia 6 Yıldız Holding: Strong & supportive parent Biggest food and beverage group with TL 15.7bn turnover with 57 production facilities and 300 brands in 40 categories Strategic shareholdings in the leading food-retail discounters (Şok and Dia ) and cash & carry wholesaler (Bizim) in Turkey Ülker - Benefiting from Yıldız Holding s unique distribution network, procurement power and experience in international markets

9 1 Favorable demographics and young target population 8 Sizeable market with a growing population Youngest population in Europe Turkey has one of the youngest and fastest growing populations Malaysia Turkey CAGR % 1.4% Population % 7% Attractive target consumer group Indonesia S.Af rica 1.3% 1.2% % 12% 14% 8% 11% 41% Brazil 0.9% 199 European median 41 yrs UK France 0.7% 0.5% % 14% 14% 17% Turkey median 29 yrs Italy 0.5% 61 Netherlands 0.5% % 12% 17% 59% Czech Rep. Poland 0.3% 0.2% % 25% Russia 0.2% 144 EU-27 Turkey Greece 0.2% 11 Source: Turkstat, Eurostat Germany -0.1% 82 Source: World Bank, Turkstat Total population in millions

10 1 Spending increases in tandem with GDP per capita 9 Biscuits consumption vs. GDP per capita Chocolate consumption vs. GDP per capita Turkey s consumption of biscuits and chocolate stands at 3.5 kg and 1.9 kg per capita, respectively Increasing GDP per capita expected to fuel biscuit and chocolate consumption Kg per capita Kg per capita UK Netherlands 8.0 UK UK Germany R 2 =0.60 Germany 8.0 Italy Russia Netherlands R USA 2 =0.54 Brazil France 6.0 Poland France USA Russia 4.0 Netherlands Turkey '18 Russia Germany Turkey '18 France Turkey '12 Poland 3.0 Hungary Croatia USA 4.0 Croatia Saudi Arabia 4.0 Croatia Turkey '18 Italy Turkey '07 Hungary Hungary Italy 2.0 '12 Poland Turkey ' Brazil Saudi Arabia Egypt Malaysia 2.0 Turkey '07 1.0Turkey '07 Brasil S.Af rica Saudi Arabia S.Af rica Indonesia S.Af rica Indonesia US$ per capita Malaysia Egypt US$ per capita 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat Per capita consumption of biscuits and chocolate in Turkey grew at a CAGR of 5.3% and 7.9%, respectively, between 2007 and still lower than peers US$20,000 GDP per capita target for Turkey by 2018 implies c.5% CAGR in biscuits consumption......and c.10% CAGR in chocolate consumption IMF estimate

11 Cake Chocolate Biscuit 1 Regaining market share with portfolio management Streamlined product portfolio and increased brand investment for improved sales Results of portfolio restructuring reflected as increased sales performance # of SKU and sales Market Share Development, Volume Based 50% II 2015E Portfolio restructuring started in late Keeping star SKUs, discontinuing unprofitable ones Reduction from 502 SKUs in 2010 to 330 SKUs in Increased brand investments through multichannel advertising and social media / investment on star SKUs - Distribution efficiencies / declining sales returns: 2.8% in 2011 vs. 0.5% in 2013 (0.3% in 1Q14 vs 0.7% in 1Q13) - Increasing sales per SKUs New launches to grasp market share: - Indulgence biscuits: Dore (launched in June 2013) - Diet biscuits (launched in September 2013) - Wet cake (launched in September 2013) - A new cake line O La La (launched in March 2014) >50% II 2015E 35% II 2015E Source: ACNielsen, Euromonitor Retail market, Market shares may not add up to 100% due to rounding

12 1... and unlocking distribution power Accessibility is a key success factor Traditional retail dominates the biscuits and chocolate market Ülker benefits from Yıldız Holding s wide distribution network throughout Turkey: Horizon in traditional retail Pasifik in organized retail 665 km Marmara 30% sales points 35% of total sales Aegean 17% sales points 10% of total sales Mediterranean 15% sales points 10% of total sales Central Anatolia 15% sales points 20% of total sales 1,565 km Ülker domestic sales by channel Black Sea 11% sales points 10% of total sales Eastern Anatolia 6% sales points 8% of total sales S. Eastern Anatolia 6% sales points 7% of total sales 90% 200k US$ 100 c.90% nationwide coverage - widest after beverage & tobacco companies Reaching ~200k sales points throughout Turkey 175k in traditional channel through Horizon ~20k bullets in organized channel through Pasifik Typical distribution network in a similar FMCG network has a replacement value of c. US$100mn and requires 1,300 headcount Organized retail 35% Traditional retail 65%

13 1... through newly established exclusive distribution 12 Horizon to consolidate traditional channel. Distributors sell solely Yıldız Holding brands 3 categories 65 Brands 330 SKUs Biscuits Chocolates Cakes 60% 30% Ülker products c.60% in terms of value and c.35% in terms of volume in Horizon portfolio Delivering c. 30% shelf space of a small grocery - 20% with only Ülker products excluding tobacco and alcohol Baby products Sugar candy & gum Personal care Light and diabetic products 40 categories 300 Brands Margarine and liquid oils Breakfast items Drinks Culinary Brands Lower distribution cost Increased selling power with enhanced product portfolio Eliminating internal competition between distributors

14 2 Simplified route to market improving margins 13 Traditional channel - Efficiency gains from restructuring Before Current Simplified and consolidated route to market creates cost efficiencies paving the way for further margin improvement Previous Structure: Domestic Traditional Channel Biscuits Chocolates Other Food & Beverage Products Atlantik (Ülker brand) Atlas (Ülker brand) Distributors Distributors Completed New Structure: Domestic Traditional Channel Biscuits Chocolates Other Food & Beverage Products Horizon (New Sales Company) Distributors Cakes Atlas Cakes Multi-channel route to traditional market Limited to single category sales 235 distributors # of points visited: 140k % of invoice issued by visit: 75%-80% Single route to traditional market through Horizon Benefiting from Yıldız Holding product portfolio 103 distributors # of points visited: 175k % of invoice issued by visit: 90% Decreased logistics expense More efficient route to sales points Enhanced distribution profit Better and faster execution capability Stronger distributors with higher nominal gains Owned by Yıldız Holding, took over all traditional sales activities of Ülker as well as Yıldız Holding s other companies sales activities

15 2 Growing chocolate segment favoring margins 14 Increasing share of higher margin chocolate segment Chocolate sales and total share in revenue Stronger growth in chocolate sales 15% Growth between 2013 and % Growth between 1Q14 and 1Q13 Gross profit margin % % 25% 48,6% 49,2% Chocolate share in total revenue % 23% Chocolate share in total revenue 2013 Overall margin benefits from high growth chocolate category Biscuit Chocolate Cake Overall Chocolate business consolidated in 4Q2011 following the acquisition of Ülker Çikolota after depreciation

16 2 Measures reflected in margins, still room to go 15 Components of EBITDA margin improvement

17 2 Long Term Guidance 16 EBITDA growth to surpass sales growth Sales (TL mn) Chocolate volume up 6 to 8% annually Biscuits and cakes volume up 4 to 6% annually Average price to be increased by ± 2% vis-avis inflation CAGR 18% 2013 Sales Biscuits Chocolates Cakes Int. Growth 2016E Sales By 2016, Ülker is expected to surpass TL4.5bn net sales (including inorganic growth) with an EBITDA margin of above 15% 11.5% EBITDA margin % % 1.8% 1.0% 15.0% Capex: % of net sales Distribute minimum 70% of distributable income EBITDA EBITDA margin margin % Reduction Reduction in Category Category Mix Better Better Cost cost & in sales sales Effect/New mix effect OPEX discounts Launches / New management launches 2016E 2016 EBITDA margin %

18 3 High barriers to entry 17 Dominant presence in Turkey across the board Strong brand equity with established market positions c.50% dominant market share in biscuits and chocolate Significantly higher brand awareness of Ülker branded products Always been the most recognized brand and closest to consumers The Brand Award (International Brands Conference, 2011) The Best in the Sweet and Salty Category Most Recognized Company (AC Nielsen, 2 nd place, 2010) High barriers to entry Exclusive distribution (Silver Effie Award, Ülker Rondo, 2011) Extensive and exclusive distribution network - the most relevant entry barrier in the market Reaching ~200,000 points of sales throughout Turkey Largest & spreadout production capacity in the domestic market 6 facilities in 4 cities, representing the largest production capacity in the domestic market Ankara biscuit factory - the largest biscuit manufacturing facility in the Middle East Geographically diversified production base competitive advantage in route to market

19 4 Platform for further growth 18 Expansion started with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, focus on underpenetrated markets Plans to expand business in underpenetrated markets with high growth potential Target regions: Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe Saudi Arabia Population of 30.2 mn growing at CAGR of 1.8% between US$ 924bn GDP growing at c.7% c.us$ 1.9 bn confectionary market (US$ mn) Market size Growth Per capita consumption Chocolate % 1.9 Biscuits % 3.7 Source: Euromonitor Egypt Population of 87 mn growing at CAGR of 1.7% between US$ 568bn GDP growing at c.3% c.us$ 1.4 bn confectionary market (US$ mn) Market size Growth Per capita consumption Chocolate % 0.4 Biscuits % 2.9 Source: Euromonitor FMC (manufacturing) Hi Food (manufacturing) Ülker Egypt (sales) Established in % Yıldız Holding, 58% local partner Biscuit, chocolate and cake production Capacity: 43k tons c. 100 trucks reaching c. 10,000 sales points Potential expansion areas Established in % Yıldız Holding, 40% local partner Biscuit production Capacity: 27.5k tons Established in % Yıldız Holding Biscuit sales Manages 12 distributors and reaches 20,000 sales points (US$ mn) E Net sales EBITDA margin 6% 8% (US$ mn) E Net sales EBITDA margin 18% 20% CAGR-Volume Kg per capita

20 5 Godiva Hidden value 19 Acquired by Yıldız Holding in 2008 Ülker stake in Godiva - 19% Leading premium chocolate producer with significant brand equity worldwide Entry into China, S.Korea, Indonesia, S. Arabia and Turkey since the acquisition Planned entry into Russia Yet to reach its potential in terms of growth and margins by restructuring the company, investing in store expansion, especially in the Far East, closing down inefficient stores, reshuffling the product portfolio, Godiva plans to open 50 new stores per annum and reach US$1.0 bn in revenues and US$120mn EBITDA in 2016 Godiva store in Harrods, London Godiva store in Denver, the US Geographical presence of Godiva as of 2013 year end 195 stores in the US &Canada 35 stores in Europe Owns and operates 439 retail boutiques in 84 countries as of 2013 year end Available via over 10,000 specialty retailers 209 stores in Asia Key figures E # of stores Revenues US$ 490mn US$ 704mn US$ 769mn EBITDA - US$ 49mn US$ 56mn Geographical store evolution Year U.S. Japan China Pac Rim Belgium Others YE

21 6 Yıldız Holding: Strong & supportive parent 20 Operates in 6 sectors with TL15.7 bn gross sales in 2013 The largest branded food group in CEEMEA 57 production facilities, 300 brands in 40 categories including biscuits, chocolate, confectionary, margarine & liquid oils, culinary products, dairy products, beverages, fruit juice and frozen foods Benefits from its diversified business portfolio - significant distribution and purchasing synergies across the portfolio Increased interests in food retailing with strategic stakes in top three discounters - Bizim, Şok and Dia accounting for 7% of organized food retail sales in Turkey Best recognized food brand #1 in biscuits & chocolates Diversified product portfolio #2 in dairy products holding strong market #1 in edible oils and fats shares #1 in overall baby food #1 in culinary products Bizim and Şok -7% of Ülker s net sales as of 2013 Real Estate Retail Food & Beverages Experience in managing international operations Premium segment chocolate producer acquired in 2008 Dia - new account entered after the acquisition in July 2013 Personal Care Finance Packaging JVs with leading international players Sole and first brand sought out for co-branding Turkey's first food company to establish a nationwide distribution network In excess of 200k sales points nationwide c.90% coverage, second best after Coca-Cola Icecek 2012 revenues

22 Beyond Long-term ambitions Growth Increase operating profit by higher sales volumes and revenues Become a strong regional player Further efficiency and productivity in distribution channels Growth through acquiring national champions Productivity Boost product quality through operational efficiency Further efficiency and productivity in distribution channels Meet/beat international benchmarks Brand investments Ensure the continuity of brand investments Offer powerhouse brands to consumers at reasonable prices Increase market share Investor level Sustain best corporate governance practices

23 22 1. Ülker: Who we are? 2. Key Investment Highlights 3. Financials 4. Appendix

24 Increasing sales 23 Sales volume by category Tonnes Net sales by category TL mn Higher Volume is mainly driven by: Higher biscuit and cakes sales High base limited the volume growth in chocolate Price increases Increase in Revenue is mainly driven by: Price increase & downsizings Higher export revenues Lower discounts & returns Excluding non-confectionery sales volume Following acquisition of Ülker Çikolata in 2011, chocolate operations have been consolidated in figures from 4Q2011 onwards

25 Increasing margins 24 Gross profit and margin % EBITDA and margin % *** TL mn TL mn ***Excluding other income/(expense) from operations Margin improvement at the Gross Profit is due to: Price increases Lower sales discounts & returns Margin improvement at the EBITDA is due to: Lower marketing expenses Efficiency oriented opex management

26 Working capital and net debt 25 Average working capital days Average WC days Q14 Trade receivables Inventory Trade payables Net debt Net debt - TL mn Q14 Financial debt Short term financial debt Long term financial debt WC - days Non-trade receivables from related parties Net working capital was TL 363 mn as of 1Q14 and TL 325 mn at the end of 2013 Working capital requirement over sales ratio was 12.8% in 1Q14 (LTM) Cash and cash equivalents Net debt Net debt as of 1Q14: TL 20 mn Net debt to EBITDA (LTM) is <0.1x Financial debt - US$ denominated due to company strategy - Maturity breakdown as of 2013: - Short term 90% - Long term 10% Cash & cash equivalents breakdown based on currency - TL: 228 mn FX short position of TL 92 mn - US$: 533 mn - Euro: 437 mn Amounts expressed in Turkish Lira TRY

27 Healthier balance sheet structure 26 Improving key metrics signals higher future cash generation Sustainable EBITDA generation 2013 (LTM) EBITDA 2011 TL 77mn 2012 TL 221mn 2013 TL 315mn TL 315mn Working Capital Days days Improved Cash Conversion Cycle days 32 days 32 days Higher profitability Through restructuring and product mix Better working capital management Effective use of technology in supply chain management Sustainable & profitable growth Net Debt/EBITDA at favorable levels Net Debt / EBITDA x x x 2013(LTM) 0.06x

28 27 1. Ülker: Who we are? 2. Key Investment Highlights 3. Financials 4. Appendix

29 Financials 28 Consolidated income statement Income statements (TL mn) Growth Q13 1Q14 Growth 1Q14-1Q13 Sales Revenue % % Cost of Sales (1.838) (2.115) 15% (554) (613) 11% Gross Profit % % Gross Profit Margin % 21,6% 23,0% 22,7% 22,7% OPEX (332) (370) 11% (98) (105) 7% Marketing, Sales and Distribution Expenses (227) (263) 16% (72) (74) 3% General Administration Expenses (96) (94) (2%) (24) (27) 15% Research Expense (9) (13) 51% (3) (4) 51% EBIT % % EBIT Margin 7,4% 9,6% 9,0% 9,4% Depreciation (48) (52) 8% (13) (13) 6% EBITDA % % EBITDA Margin 9,3% 11,5% 10,8% 11,1% Other Operating Income / Expense* & Inc/Exp From Inv. Activities % % Finance Incomes / Expenses* (3) (240) n.m. (23) (42) 85% Profit Before Taxation % % Tax Charge From Continued Operations (48) (52) 8% (14) (17) 17% Net Profit (Equity holders of the parent) % %

30 Financials (cont d) 29 Consolidated balance sheet Balance sheet (TL mn) Q14 Current Assets Cash and cash equivalents Financial investments 1 1 Trade receivables Trade Receivables from related Parties Other Trade Receivables Other receivables Non-trade Receivables Other short-term Receivables 17 8 Inventories Other current assets Non-Current Assets Financial investments Investment properties Tangible assets Intangible assets 1 1 Deferred tax assets 4 4 Other non-current assets Total Assets Balance sheet (TL mn) Q14 Current Liabilities Financial liabilities Derivative financial liabilities - - Trades payables Trade payables to related parties Other trade payables Other payables Corporate tax payable Debt provisions 9 20 Employee benefits Other current liabilities Non-Current Liabilities Financial liabilities Employee benefits Deferred tax liabilities Other non-current liabilities 0 0 Shareholders' Equity Share capital Inflation adjustments to share capital Valuation funds Restricted reserves Actuarial gain / loss (1) (2) Retained earnings Net income for the year Non-controlling interest Total Liabilities and S.E

31 Cost Structure 30 Components of Cost of Goods Sold (Consolidated) Other 35% Raw Material 65% Raw Material Breakdown Cacao 15% Palm Oil 15% Sugar 15% Wheat 20% Palm Oil and Cacao are imported in USD terms Wheat and Sugar is procured from domestic sources in TL terms

32 Disclaimer 31 This presentation contains information and analysis on financial statements and is prepared for the sole purpose of providing information relating to Ülker Bisküvi Sanayi A.Ş. ( Ülker ) This presentation contains forward-looking statements which are based on certain expectations and assumptions at the time of publication of this presentation and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these materials. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Ülker s ability to control or estimate precisely, such as future market and economic conditions, the behavior of other market participants, the ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses and achieve anticipated cost savings and productivity gains as well as the actions of government regulators Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this presentation. Ülker does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of these materials This presentation merely serves the purpose of providing information. It neither represents an offer for sale nor for subscription of securities in any country, including Turkey. This presentation does not include an official offer of shares; an offering circular will not be published This presentation is not allowed to be reproduced, distributed or published without permission or agreement of Ülker The figures in this presentation are rounded to provide a better overview. The calculation of deviations is based on figures including fractions. Therefore rounding differences may occur Neither Ülker nor any of its managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this presentation