Kick-off meeting summary -

Transcription

1 Sugar Market Observatory Last update : Kick-off meeting summary - 11 July 2017 o o o The kick-off meeting of the Sugar Market Observatory (SMO) took place on 11 July 2017, chaired by Mr. Jens Schaps, Director for Agricultural Markets. It gathered representatives of organisations from all stages of the sugar and isoglucose supply chain: CEJA (young farmers), COPA-COGECA (producers and cooperatives), CIBE (sugar beet growers), CEFS, Azucarera and Viro (beet sugar producers, some of them with cane sugar refining activity), CIUS (food industry sugar and isoglucose users), epure (ethanol producers), CEFIC (fermentation industry), ASSUC and Zucker Handels Union (sugar traders), ACP/LDC Sugar Industry Group (ACP/LDC sugar producing industry) and STARCH EUROPE (starch industry including isoglucose production). The Deputy Director General of DG AGRI, Ms María Angeles Benítez Salas, opened the meeting on behalf of Commissioner Hogan and highlighted the role of the SMO as a discussion platform to assess the sugar market situation, based on the positive experience of Milk and Meat Market Observatories and following the recommendations on market transparency of the Agricultural Markets Task Force. She underlined the timely pertinence of the initiative under the perspective of the sugar production quotas ending in a few months and the new economic environment that comes along. Ms Silke Boger, Head of Unit, informed the participants about the structure and functioning of the SMO, the rules of procedures and the main objectives being the assessment of the sugar market situation by its Economic Board and the dissemination of market information through a dedicated web site. The floor was subsequently open for an exchange of views and the group adopted the Rules of Procedures after clarification on different provisions. [Type text] o o o Another discussion covered the data, and the corresponding sources, that will be available after the end of the sugar quotas as well as the content of the SMO web site launched during the meeting. Participants provided suggestions on data sources and underlined the margin to improve available information, in particular more timely and detailed data on prices and more information on consumption, including nonfood uses and stocks. Generally speaking, participants welcomed the initiative and expressed their readiness to contribute constructively to the dissemination of relevant market information. These suggestions will be examined and the website will evolve with time. Finally, the Economic Board had a first and general exchange of views on the current sugar market developments and its outlook for the coming marketing year on the basis of relevant market and outlook presentations by Commission's Services. The current market situation does not indicate a shortage of supply and the still lagging behind imports despite an increasing gap with external prices seem to be compensated by a reduction in consumption. In view of the upcoming marketing year participants shared the assessment that the expected increase of domestic production could be absorbed by a doubling in exports (no longer limited by the WTO ceiling) while imports would be cut in half, with a considerable degree of uncertainty on the level of ending stocks. Internal prices would adjust down in line with additional supply and the currently observed negative price trend on world markets. The first ordinary meeting of the SMO economic board will take place on 15 November 2017.

2 ANNEX 1 Structure and Functioning of the SMO Rules of Procedure

3 Structure and Functioning of the Sugar Market Observatory Kick-off meeting 11 July 2017 Silke Boger Head of Unit G.4

4 Two main elements An Economic Board composed by representatives of stakeholder organisations in the sugar supply chain (including isoglucose) A dedicated website, updated regularly and including all market data to be disseminated 2

5 The website contains...data on production, prices, trade flows for the EU and, where possible, for the main exporting and importing regions of the world...the reports and presentations of the Market Observatory...files containing market information that will be updated on a regular basis 3

6 The Economic Board, the market experts...contribute to and share understanding of market developments and their grounds, while avoiding political posturing...help assess elements, like internal consumption, for which market transparency is limited... contribute to a good understanding of international markets, in particular trade flows and stock information at world level 4

7 COPA CEJA CIUS COGECA CIBE CEFS Azucarera Sugar Market Observatory epure CEFIC Zucker Handels Union Viro Starch Europe ACP/LDC Sugar Industry Group ASSUC 5

8 Rules of Procedures (1/3) Meetings chaired by representative of DG AGRI, in principle Mr Jens Schaps, Director "Markets and Observatories" Experts represent Member Organisation, replacement is possible if the alternate expert fulfils the required criteria 6

9 Rules of Procedures (2/3) Chair convenes meetings, two regular meetings per year unless a particular market situation requires more frequent meetings Invitation and agenda sent not later than 14 calendar days before meeting, unless in urgent or exceptional cases Opinion adopted by consensus in principle 7

10 Rules of Procedures (3/3) Possibility to set up sub-groups Ad-hoc invitation of experts with specific expertise Observers (Organisations and Individuals) can be invited. Observers have no voting rights and shall not participate in the formulation of recommendations Transparency: publication of member organisations (and their experts unless specific cases of derogation), all relevant documents are published 8

11 EUROPEAN COMMISSION 11/07/2017 Point 4 DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT RULES OF PROCEDURE OF THE EXPERT GROUP "SUGAR MARKET OBSERVATORY" THE GROUP Sugar Market Observatory, Having regard to the creation of the group by Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development, Having regard to the standard rules of procedure of expert groups 1, HAS ADOPTED THE FOLLOWING RULES OF PROCEDURE: Point 1 Operation of the group The group shall act at the request of the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development (hereafter DG AGRI). The group shall be chaired by a representative of DG AGRI. Point 2 Member's representatives Members shall be represented by the expert/s identified within the selection procedure following the call for application. In principle the representative of the member cannot be replaced. However, if a member cannot be represented in a specific meeting by any nominated representative, the member can nominate a substitute for that meeting by notifying DG AGRI ten days before the meeting, provided that the substitute meets the selection criteria specified in chapter 4 of the call for application. In case of replacement of a representative on a permanent basis, the member shall notify the Commission and provide all the information enabling the Commission to assess the eligibility of the new representative against the selection criteria specified in chapter 4 of the call for application. 1 C(2016) 3301 (Annex 3) - Commission européenne/europese Commissie, 1049 Bruxelles/Brussel, BELGIQUE/BELGIË - Tel

12 DG AGRI may refuse the nomination of the substitute/replacement if it considers this nomination inappropriate in light of the requirements of the call. Point 3 Convening a meeting 1. Meetings of the group are convened by the Chair with the agreement of DG AGRI either on its own initiative or at the request of a simple majority of members after DG AGRI has given its agreement. 2. Joint meetings of the group with other groups may be convened to discuss matters falling within their respective areas of responsibility. 3. Meetings of the group shall be held on Commission premises. Point 4 Agenda 1. The secretariat shall draw up the agenda under the responsibility of the Chair and send it to the members of the group. 2. The agenda shall be adopted by the group at the start of the meeting. Point 5 Documentation to be sent to group members The secretariat shall send the invitation to the meeting and the draft agenda to the group members no later than fourteen calendar days before the date of the meeting. The secretariat shall send documents on which the group is consulted to the group members no later than fourteen calendar days before the date of the meeting. In urgent or exceptional cases, the time limits for sending the documentation mentioned in 1 and 2 may be reduced to five calendar days before the date of the meeting. Point 6 Opinions of the group 1. As far as possible, the group shall adopt its opinions, recommendations or reports by consensus. 2. In the event of a vote, the outcome of the vote shall be decided by simple majority of the members. The members that have voted against or abstained shall have the right to have a document summarising the reasons for their position annexed to the opinions, recommendations or reports. 2

13 Point 7 Sub-groups 1. DG AGRI may set up sub-groups for the purpose of examining specific questions on the basis of terms of reference defined by DG AGRI. Sub-groups shall operate in compliance with the Commission s horizontal rules on expert groups ( the horizontal rules ) and shall report to the group. They shall be dissolved as soon as their mandate is fulfilled. 2. The members of sub-groups that are not members of the group shall be selected via a public call for applications, in compliance with the horizontal rules. Point 8 Invited experts DG AGRI may invite experts with specific expertise with respect to a subject matter on the agenda to take part in the work of the group or sub-group on an ad hoc basis. Point 9 Observers Individuals and organisations may be granted an "Observer" status, in compliance with the horizontal rules, by direct invitation. Organisations appointed as observers shall nominate their representatives. Observers and their representatives shall not have voting rights and shall not participate in the formulation of recommendations or advice of the group. Point 10 Written procedure If necessary, the group s opinion or recommendation on a specific question may be delivered via a written procedure. To this end, the Secretariat sends the group members the document(s) on which the group is being consulted. However, if a simple majority of group members asks for the question to be examined at a meeting of the group, the written procedure shall be terminated without result and the Chair shall convene a meeting of the group as soon as possible. Point 11 Secretariat DG AGRI shall provide secretarial support for the group and its sub-groups. 3

14 Point 12 Minutes of the meetings Minutes on the discussion on each point on the agenda and the opinions delivered by the group shall be meaningful and complete. Minutes shall be drafted by the secretariat under the responsibility of the Chair. Point 13 Attendance list At each meeting, the secretariat shall draw up, under the responsibility of the Chair, an attendance list specifying, where appropriate, the organisations to which the participants belong. Point 14 Correspondence 1. Correspondence relating to the group shall be addressed to DG AGRI, for the attention of the Chair. 2. Correspondence for group members shall be sent to the address which they provide for that purpose. Point 15 Transparency 1. The group and the sub-groups shall be registered on the Register of expert groups. 2. As concerns the group composition, the following data shall be published on the Register of expert groups: a) the name of member organisations; the interest represented shall be disclosed; b) the name of observers. 3. DG AGRI shall make available all relevant documents, including the agendas, the minutes and the participants submissions, either on the Register of expert groups or via a link from the Register to a dedicated website, where this information can be found. Access to dedicated websites shall not be submitted to user registration or any other restriction. In particular, DG AGRI shall publish the agenda and other relevant background documents in due time ahead of the meeting, followed by timely publication of minutes. Exceptions to publication shall only be foreseen where it is deemed that disclosure of a document would undermine the protection of a public or private interest as defined in Article 4 of Regulation (EC) N 1049/

15 Point 16 Access to documents Applications for access to documents held by the expert group will be handled in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1049/ Point 17 Deliberations In agreement with DG AGRI, the group may, by a simple majority of its members, decide that deliberations shall be public. 2 Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2001 regarding public access to European Parliament, Council and Commission documents (OJ L 145, , p. 43). 5

16 ANNEX 2 Sugar Data Sources [Type text]

17 Sugar Data Sources AGRI G 4 Sugar Market Observatory 11 July 2017

18 New horizontal Commission Regulation on notifications by Member States: Implementing Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Official Journal 171, 4/07/2017 Enters into force one week after publication For sugar, applicable as from 1st October 2017

19 Balance sheet data sources

20 Notifications Reg. 2017/1185 A) Beet areas By 31 May, final figures for the current marketing year and an estimate for the following marketing year Broken down by areas intended for production of sugar and for production of bioethanol ("jus vert")

21 Notifications Reg. 2017/1185 B) Sugar and bioethanol production "Sugar production" includes white sugar, raw sugar, invert sugar and sugar syrups (at least 70% pure if produced from beet and 75% from cane) Bioethanol production notified here only includes bioethanol obtained from "sugar production" By 30 November each year, for the previous marketing year (final figures) By 31 March (30 June for Guadalupe and Martinique) for current marketing year (estimate)

22 Notifications Reg. 2017/1185 C) Isoglucose production Based on quantities of own production shipped At least 41% fructose content Monthly and annual notification By 25 th each month for the previous month By 30 November, for the previous marketing year

23 Notifications Reg. 2017/1185 D) Stocks Sugar: monthly notification of quantities stored by undertakings and refiners By the end of each month in respect of the preceding month For July, August and September stocks, distinction between production from different marketing years If stocks in another MS, information exchange between MS Isoglucose: by 30 November, notification of quantities owned by the producer in stock at the end of the marketing year

24 Other sources - Trade - import and export data from Comext (Eurostat) and Surveillance2 (DG TAXUD) databases - Tariff Rate Import Quotas (TRQ) ; import licences allocated / surveillance - forecast exports by EPA/EBA countries - market information publications

25 Prices sources

26 Notifications Reg. 2017/1185 EU sugar price - - Monthly weighted average price of sugar sold by sugar producers in each Member State, including the corresponding quantities and the standard deviations - - Refers to white sugar (technical rules) - - For the previous month, the selling price - - For the current month, the selling price forecast in contracts or other transactions - - Notification by the end of each month

27 Notifications Reg. 2017/1185 EU sugar beet price - - Weighted average price of sugar beet paid by to beet growers in each Member State, including the corresponding quantities - - By 30 June with respect to the previous marketing year - - New notification, technical rules currently under discussion with MS

28 Other sources Prices - import and export data from Comext (Eurostat) and Surveillance2 (DG TAXUD) databases - market information publications - futures markets

29 Additional data needs and possible input from members

30 Summary of available main sugar data sources - production: areas and quantities - imports: databases, TRQ and ACP forecasts - exports: databases - stocks: monthly figures - prices: official average prices, spot prices, futures markets

31 Open questions possible improvements on sugar information - consumption: knowledge on trends - exports: forecast trends - imports: forecast - prices: average price under long-term contracts vs. spot price information

32 ANNEX 3 Sugar Market Situation: Price Trade Stocks EU Balance [Type text]

33 Sugar Market situation AGRI G 4 Expert Group Sugar Market Observatory 11 July 2017

34 World Sugar Market

35 Exchange rates (7/7/2017): Euro Dollar exchange rate: 1 = $1.141

36 Exchange rates (7/7/2017): Euro Real exchange rate: 1 = Real

37 World Prices

38 World Prices White sugar (26/06/2017 vs. 22/05/2017) August 17: $/t ( %; /t) October 17: $/t ( %; /t) Raw sugar (26/06/2017 vs. 22/05/2017) July 17: $cts/lb ( %; /t) October 17: $cts/lb ( %; /t) White premium: around 109 $/t on Aug/July basis (white/raw).

39 EU market price and world market prices London 5 and NY 11 - first future - /t

40 World Market News

41 World Market News ISO 05/2017

42 EU Sugar Market

43 Isoglucose production in 2016/17

44 Sugar: Out-of-quota exports in 2016/17 1 st tranche (650,000 t) Reg. 2016/ % allocated % allocation coefficient Reg.2016/ nd tranche (700,000 t) Reg. 2017/ % allocated % allocation coefficient Reg.2017/545 Isoglucose: t opened % allocated t available

45 Industrial TRQ for chemical industry For 2016/17, TRQ of t sugar for the supply of the chemical industry (CN 1701) R470/ t (1.7%) have so far been committed

46 Sugar Price reporting AGRI G 4 Expert Group Sugar Market Observatory 11 July 2017

47 EU Reference price and EU market price for white sugar

48 EU Reference price and EU market price for white sugar compared with World price London N 5 (first future - $/t - /t)

49 EU market price and world market prices London 5 and NY 11 - first future - /t

50 EU Average price for industrial white sugar

51 ACP average import price

52 AGRI G 4 Expert Group Sugar Market Observatory 11 July 2017 Sugar Trade statistics

53 EU Sugar Preferential Imports

54 1. Imports EPA / EBA in 2016/2017

55 1. Imports EPA / EBA in 2016/2017

56 1. Imports EPA / EBA in 2016/2017

57 1. Imports EPA / EBA in 2016/2017

58 1. Imports EPA / EBA in 2016/2017

59 1. Imports EPA / EBA in 2016/2017

60 2. Sugar TRQs

61 2. Sugar TRQs

62 2. Sugar TRQs

63 2. Sugar TRQs

64 2. Sugar TRQs 2016

65 2. Sugar TRQs 2017

66 EU Sugar Imports

67 3. EU Total imports

68 3. EU Total imports

69 3. EU Total imports

70 EU Sugar Exports

71 4. EU Total exports

72 4. EU Total exports

73 4. EU Total exports

74 Thank you for your attention

75 Thank you for your attention

76 Thank you for your attention

77 Thank you for your attention

78 EU Sugar Stocks

79

80 5. Sugar stocks

81 EU Sugar Balance June 2017 update AGRI G 4 Committee for the Common Organisation of Agricultural Markets 29 June 2017

82 EU Sugar Balance December 2016 update 2013/2014 Final 2014/2015 Final 2015/2016 Final 2016/2017 Provisional

83 Carry forward 2014/2015 to 2015/2016 October 2015 Communication to the Commission /2015 R 967/2006 Art 17 Sugar : Isoglucose: tonnes tonnes SUGAR ISOGLUCOSE Member State (tonnes) (tonnes) Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Germany Greece Spain France Croatia Italy Lithuania Hungary Netherlands Austria 90.5 Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Finland Sweden United Kingdom TOTAL

84 Agri G 4 Communication to the Commission Areas - Dec R 952/2006 art 22 para / /2016 Areas December 2015 Update Communication to the Commission /2016 Areas: Ha R 952/2006 Art 22 para 3 areas areas Difference '000 ha '000 ha 2015/ /15 BE % BG CZ % DK % DE % EL % ES FR (Met.) % FR (Dom.) HR IT % LT % HU % NL % AT % PL % PT (Continent) PT (Açores) RO % SK % FI % SE % UK % TOTAL %

85 2015/ EU Sugar Final Production SUCRE ISOGLUCOSE ISOGLUCOSE SUCRE + tons QUOTA Production carry forward carry forward Total PRODUCTION OUT OF QUOTA OUT OF ISOGLUCOSE white sugar Superficie of the from 14/15 from 15/16 Production under Quota QUOTA QUOTA available (export / equivalent R 183/2009 '000 ha t/ha campaign to 15/16 to 16/17 (indust. + carry f. ) release EU market) QUOTA PRODUCTION (a) (b) ( c) (d) (e) (f) = (c) + (d) - (e) (h) (g)= (f) -(h) BE BG CZ DK DE EL ES(**) FR (met.) FR (Dom) Hr IT LT HU NL AT (*) PL PT (contine PT (Açores RO SK FI SE UK TOTAL (*) AT : including sugar from molasses BE Travail à façon tonnes HR Travail à façon t FI Travail à façon to quota disponible 1 FR (Dom) : included t Antilles t LT Travail à façon tonnes IT Travail à façon t SE Travail à façon to RO Trav à façon t Réunion TAF from FR (Met) EL Travail à façon tonnes HU Travail à façon t SK Travail à façon tonnes

86 Carry forward 2015/2016 to 2016/2017 December 2016 S UG A R IS O G L UC O S E M e m be r S ta te (t o n n es ) (t o n n es ) B e lgium B ulga ria C ze c h R e p ub lic D e nm a rk G e rm a ny G re e c e 0 S p a in Communication to the Commission /2016 R 967/2006 Art 17 Sugar : tonnes Isoglucose: tonnes F ra nc e C ro a tia Ita ly L ithua nia 0 H unga ry N e the rla nd s A ustria 80 P o la nd P o rtuga l R o m a nia S lo va k ia F inla nd S w e d e n 0 U nite d K ingd o m T O T A L

87 EU Sugar Balance December 2016 update 2013/2014 Final 2014/2015 Final 2015/2016 Final 2016/2017 Provisional

88 Agri G 4 Communication to the Commission Areas - Dec R 952/2006 art 22 para / /2017 Areas December 2016 Update Communication to the Commission /2017 Areas: Ha R 952/2006 Art 22 para 3 areas areas Difference '000 ha '000 ha 2016/ /16 BE % BG CZ % DK % DE % EL % ES FR (Met.) % FR (Dom.) HR % IT % LT % HU % NL % AT % PL % PT (Continent) PT (Açores) RO % SK % FI % SE % UK % TOTAL %

89 2016/ EU Sugar Provisional Production 6/2017 SUCRE ISOGLUCOSE ISOGLUCOSE SUCRE + tonnes QUOTA Production carry forward carry forward Total PRODUCTION OUT OF QUOTA OUT OF ISOGLUCOSE white sugar areas yield of the from 15/16 from 16/17 Production under Quota QUOTA QUOTA available equivalent R 183/2009 '000 ha t/ha campaign to 16/17 to 17/18 (indust. + carry f. ) (export / release QUOTA PRODUCTION (a) (b) ( c) (d) (e) (f) = (c) + (d) - (e) (h) (g)= (f) -(h) EU market) BE BG CZ DK DE EL ES FR (Met.) FR (Dom) HR IT LT HU NL AT PL PT (Contine PT (Açores RO SK FI SE UK TOTAL (*) AT : including sugar from molasses BE Travail à façon tonnes HR Travail à façon tonn SK Travail à façon to quota disponible 1 FR (Dom) : included t Antilles t DK Travail à façon tonnes IT Travail à façon tonn FI Travail à façon to Réunion = TAF from FR (Met) EL Travail à façon tonnes RO Travail à façon tonne SE Travail à façon to UK: Tàf tonnes

90 2016/2017 EU Sugar Balance Quota September 2016 update EU sugar imports forecast: 3.49 mio t Imports as such: 2.94 mio t of which ACP/LDC forecast at mio t CXL forecast at mio t Balkan & Moldavia forecast at mio t TRQ Cent. Am., Col., Peru forecast at mio t Ukraine: mio t, South Africa : miot Ecuador: miot, 'Croatia WTO': Others: mio t (non-preferential) Imports in processed products: mio t (2015/16 level)

91 Thank you for your attention

92 SUGAR AND ISOGLUCOSE SUGAR AND ISOGLUCOSE BALANCE SHEET 2013/ /17 June 2017 Final Final Final Provisional x 1000 tonnes 2013/14 (oct-sept) 2014/15 (oct-sept) 2015/16 (oct-sept) 2016/17 (oct-sept) EU 28 EU 28 EU 28 EU 28 quota out of quota quota out of quota quota out of quota quota out of quota AVAILABILITIES 1 Beginning stocks private intervention Production of which quota / out-of-quota release out-of-quota Imports as such (*) in processed products TOTAL AVAILABLE = OUTLETS 5 Consumption/disappearance indust. 870 indust. 800 indust. 800 indust bioeth bioeth bioeth bioeth. 6 Exports as such (**) in processed products Ending stocks carry forward carry forward carry forward private (of which stock declared by manufacturers and refiners) intervention TOTAL OUTLETS = = 4

93 Agri G 4 Communication to the Commission Areas - June 2017 R 952/2006 art 22 para / /2018 Areas June 2017 Update Communication to the Commission /2018 Areas: 1667 Ha R 952/2006 Art 22 para 3 areas areas Difference '000 ha '000 ha 2017/ /17 BE % BG CZ % DK % DE % EL % ES % FR (Met.) % FR (Dom.) HR % IT % LT % HU % NL % AT % PL % PT (Continent) PT (Açores) % RO % SK % FI % SE % UK % TOTAL %

94 Thank you for your attention

95 ANNEX 4 EU Sugar Short Term Outlook [Type text]

96 Sugar market post quota A short term outlook Sugar market observatory 11 July 2017

97 DG AGRI outlook products Short term outlook Medium term outlook Content Short term outlook for the European sugar market 2

98 Short term outlook What is the STO? Short term projections for main agri commodities (including beef and pork) Based on reflections of DG AGRI market experts EU balances on production / consumption / trade Background on specific topics and developments 2 years horizon (2016, 2017) Published 3 times / year Latest version published today: 3

99 What? Medium term outlook 10-year projections of agricultural markets and income, with focus on the EU Not as a forecast of what the future will be, but a description of what may happen under a specific set of assumptions, which at the time of making the projections were judged plausible Why? To better understand markets and their dynamics To identify key issues for market and policy developments To have a benchmark for assessing the medium-term impact of future market and policy issues Every year? Model based Stakeholder consultation Public conference in December 4

100 European sugar market What happened? Incoming stocks for 2017/18 (including carry-forward) estimated at 1.3 million ton (33% lower than 2016/17) EU sugar prices increased over the last year (+16%) but stabilizing since the beginning of 2017 World sugar market Sugar production deficit for the second year in a row (-5.9 million ton) Strong surge in sugar prices end but sharp decline since March - Updated production 2016/17 - Ethanol vs sugar balance in Brazil (exchange rate + Petrobas policy) - Expectation of sugar surplus in 2017/18 5

101 What do we know? World level Global production expected to rise in Asia, Africa and Europe Constant consumption growth Over supply of 2.6 million ton (but still low stock-to-use!) EU Strong increase in sown area in the first year without market limitations (+16% compared to 2016/17) Concentration of production expansion in "sugar beet belt" 6

102 Change in sugar beet area (5-year average) 7

103 What do we expect? A sugar beet yield of 73.4 t/ha or 3.8% above the 5-year average Despite the warmer and dryer than average season Highly dependent on weather over summer 8 Mars bulletin June 2017

104 What do we expect? A sugar beet yield of 73.9 t/ha or 3.1% above the 5-year average Despite the warmer and dryer than average season Highly dependent on weather over summer No information yet available on the sugar content of the beet as this is determined in the last growth stages of the beet Forecasted EU white sugar production of 20.1 million ton Sugar prices likely to decline Delay compared to world markets Approaching the world market price post quota 9

105 What remains to be seen? How will the EU trade evolve? No more quantitative export limit Less attractive EU market for exporters The performance will depend on the price relationship between the EU and the world white sugar price. 10

106 Forecasted EU sugar balance 2017/18 EU-28 % variation 2013/ / / /2017e 2017/2018f vs. 16/17 Beginning stocks % White sugar production % Imports % Availabilities % Total domestic uses white sugar % - Human Industrial % o.w. bioethanol % Exports % Total uses % End stocks % - Market % - Intervention Self-sufficiency rate % 86% 100% 81% 89% 105% 19% Sugar beet production % 11

107 Short term outlook Next version in Autumn will provide an improved forecast for the EU production. Trade and prices will have to be revised throughout the 2017/18 campaign Follow the impact the expiry of isoglucose quota on the EU sweetener market. 12

108 Further info