Renewable Energy in Mexico - update on the auctions and investment opportunities. Santiago Ross Associate Norton Rose Fulbright LLP 22 November 2017
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1 Renewable Energy in Mexico - update on the auctions and investment opportunities Santiago Ross Associate Norton Rose Fulbright LLP 22 November 2017
2 Renewable energy in Mexico Mexico Investment Climate Energy Reform and the Electricity Market Auctions 1 and 2 Auction 3 1.7GW wind/solar transaction Investment opportunities 2 Renewable Energy in Mexico
3 1 Investment climate
4 Mexico Mexico overview Country statistics Second largest economy in Latin America OECD country since % expected growth (IMF s projection) Population of 127 million Political climate Presidential elections in 2018 NAFTA Regional leader Pacific Alliance Trump effect internal Energy Energy reform started in 2013 Among top 10 destinations in the world for new clean energy investment 66GW of installed capacity - additional 56 GW by 2031 Liberalised electricity market Mexico and the UK Trump effect external Brexit effect Mexico is a priority country for the UK s Department of International Trade 4 Renewable Energy in Mexico
5 2 Energy reform and the electricity market
6 Mexico s energy reform began in 2013 Constitutional amendments were made in order to allow the liberalisation of the power and oil & gas industries Mexico s long term auctions have shown competitive prices Almost fully implemented in regards to the power industry The government s aim is to have everything in place before the end of this administration 6 Renewable Energy in Mexico
7 Aim of the energy reform Working along with markets rather than against them Investment promotion No entry barriers = competition End long lasting monopolies A new wholesale electricity market 7 Renewable Energy in Mexico
8 New legal framework for renewable energy Source: CRE 8 Renewable Energy in Mexico
9 New electricity market Design of the electricity wholesale market Market surveillance Independent operator for the system and the market Network open access Clear rules Impartial planning Transparency Best practices worldwide Unbundling of CFE A level playing field 9 Renewable Energy in Mexico
10 In 2016 the creation of a wholesale electricity market started Structure of the power sector before the reform Source: SENER 10 Renewable Energy in Mexico
11 In 2016 the creation of a wholesale electricity market started (cont.) Structure of the power sector after the reform Source: SENER 11 Renewable Energy in Mexico
12 3 Auctions 1 and 2 Auction 3
13 1st auction= 11 companies 2nd auction= 24 companies Source: SENER 13 Renewable Energy in Mexico
14 Summary long-term auctions 1 and 2 1 st Auction 18 winning offers from 11 companies participating in 7 Mexican States Companies 2nd Auction 56 winning offers from 23 companies participating in 8 Mexican States 2.6 billion USD (in 3 years) Investment 4 billion USD (in 3 years) 2,085 MW of installed capacity awarded Energy 2,871 MW of installed capacity awarded 5.4 million clean energy certificates awarded CECs 9.3 million clean energy certificates awarded per year Not allocated Power 1,187 MW per year 31 March September 2016 Source: SENER 14 Renewable Energy in Mexico
15 Summary long-term auctions 1 and 2 (cont.) 1 Auction Average price: USD/MWh 2 Auction Average price: 33.7 USD/MWh Wind 19% Geothermal 3% Wind 54% Solar 43% Solar 81% Source: SENER 15 Renewable Energy in Mexico
16 3 Auction 3
17 Auction 3 timeline Publication of bidding terms Publication of the final version of the bidding terms Execution of the mathematical model of mixed integers Deadline for signing contracts Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Publication of announcement Board of clarifications Reception of the 1 st stage of the Sale Offers Publication of the result of the auction and assignment of contracts Public and private offtakers participate Presentation to CENACE of the Purchase Offers by the Basic Service Supplier (BSS) Presentation to CENACE of the Purchase Offers by the other Entities Responsible of Charge (ERC) Reception of the 2 nd stage of the Sale Offers Preliminary results 16 November Final results 22 November 17 Renewable Energy in Mexico
18 Preliminary results announced November bids participated 16 bids selected USD 2.3 billion investment expected Solar = 55.4% Solar CECs = 58.3% Wind = 44.6% Wind CECs = 41.7% Average price USD 20.57/MWh 39% less than last year s auction CCGTs = 84.36% Solar = 1.69% Wind = 13.95% 18 Renewable Energy in Mexico
19 Biggest winners in the preliminary results Enel (Italy) 2,089MW Engie (France) 1,508MW Canadian Solar (China/ Canada) 652MW Neoen (France) 616MW X-Elio Energy (Spain) 435MW Mitsui/ Trina Solar consortium (Japan/China) 189MW 19 Renewable Energy in Mexico
20 4 Investment opportunities 1.7GW wind/solar transaction
21 1.7 GW wind/solar sale of majority stake 1 GW solar projects and 0.7 GW wind projects Mixture of operating and under construction projects The transaction is worth USD 1.35 billion and uses an innovative Build, Sell and Operate model Buyer Caisse de Dépot et Placement du Québec and the investment vehicle of the leading Mexican pension funds CKD Infraestructura México S.A. de C.V. EGP will complete the construction, procure the project financing and continue to operate the projects through two newly formed subsidiaries 21 Renewable Energy in Mexico
22 Expected growth in capacity (MW) Clean energy Will triple Efficient Cogeneration Solar 145 1,036 6,797 7,844 Combined cycle Will increase 62% 2016 Hydro 12,589 14, Source: SENER Wind 3,735 17,233 Combined Cycle 27,274 44, Renewable Energy in Mexico
23 Investment opportunities Investment opportunities over US$ 100billion Power Generation New infrastructure Additional 56 Gigawatts ( ) 487 new generation plants (63% will use clean energy) Investment: 81 billion USD Transmission and distribution Collaboration with CFE in developing transmission and distribution lines 23,772 km of transmission lines Investment: 19 billion USD Wholesale Electricity market Medium and long term auctions trading of: Power Clean Energy Certificates (CECs) Financial transmission rights 23 Renewable Energy in Mexico
24 Clean Energy Certificates Plan 5 years visibility on demand for Clean Energy Certificates Year Clean energy goal CEPS CECs per year % 5% % % % 10.9% % 12 million 14 million 21 million 33 million 45 million To be announced in March % To be announced in March Renewable Energy in Mexico
25 Thank you
26
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