Capital Markets Day. Global Trading. Claudio Machetti

Transcription

1 Capital Markets Day Global Trading Claudio Machetti

2 Integrated model fit for digitalized, low carbon world Global portfolio optimization Integrated margin management Diversified global portfolio evolution leading to integrated margin optimization 120

3 Positioning and 2017 key figures Net by technology Net power sales by destination Key figures % 10% 10% 11% 255 TWh 17% 29% Hydro Nuclear CCGT Coal Oil&gas Renewables Gas purchased by destination 19% 6% 13% 319 TWh 37% 25% Italy Iberia South America Russia Other countries Gas purchased by final use Net power sales (TWh) 319 Net (TWh) 255 Power purchased (TWh) 64 Coal purchased (Mt) 37 Gas purchased (bcm) 28 Key financials ( bn) 23% 28 bcm 40% 5% 39% 15% 28 bcm Gross margin % 28% Italy Iberia South America Russia Thermo Wholesale 41% Retail LNG diversion 121

4 Role of energy management Energy management vs competitive landscape( /MWh) Retail competitiveness Digitalization as a strategic enabler of continuous improvement and more sophisticated approaches Power & commodity responsiveness Power retail Power wholesale Commodity (TTF) Centralization and integration of activities as a key strategic driver of portfolio management High margin No overlap Separate manageme nt portfolio Decreasing margin and potential overlap Coordinated management portfolio Volatile margin Integrated management portfolio Continuous re-thinking and improvement of gas & power portfolio management Full integration of conventional generation, renewables and retail gas & power portfolios 122

5 Hedging activity Capital Markets Day Global trading The group's resilience to the volatility of commodity prices Global exposure year 2018 January 2017 October 2017 Commodity price volatility generates significant margin variation 200 Power (TWh) Coal (Mton) mn Gas (Bcm) Oil (Mbbl) Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 EUR-USD ($bn) -3-2 All Commodities Power Coal Gas Other FX ($bn) 3 1 Oil EUR-USD Other FX CO2 CO 2 (Mton) Impact on the overall margin is reduced thanks to combined hedging strategies of individual exposures Hedging activities aimed at reducing exposures by maintaining a balanced portfolio 123

6 Forward sales Italy and Spain Italy 2017 Italy TWh 25% 35% 40% 100% Price 1 Achieved 43 /MWh 55 TWh 5% 20% 40% 40% 55% Price 1 Achieved 43 /MWh Spain 2017 Expected Hedged Spain 2018 Expected Hedged Spread driven 77 TWh 30% 40% 30% Expected 100% Hedged 2 Price 1 Achieved 57 /MWh 75 TWh 30% 40% 30% Expected 70% Hedged 2 Price driven Regulated / quasi regulated Spread driven Price driven Regulated / quasi regulated Price 1 Achieved 59 /MWh 1. Average hedged price. Wholesale price for Italy, Retail price for Spain 2. Including only mainland 124

7 Forward sales South America Chile Colombia 100% 100% 90% 100% 100% 70% Peru Brazil 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% Hedged Unhedged - Average price (USD/MWh) 125

8 Delivery on gas contract renegotiation Portfolio evolution (bcm, %) % 9% 13% 15% 17% 20% Price review impact ( bn) % 81% 84% 74% 64% 19% 35% Old New Legacy 1 To be contracted/spot US LNG + Tap Already negotiated To be negotiated Increasing flexibility over the plan period Improved renegotiation targets and reduced execution risk 1. Mainly oil-linked take or pay contracts 126

9 US LNG gas portfolio Portfolio evolution (bcm) LNG ( c/cm) Sabine Pass Corpus Christi Other 1 2 HH JKM High price volatility enhances value of US LNG optionality 1. Henry Hub natural gas spot price 2. Far East LNG price reference 127

10 Financial targets Gross Margin ( bn) Key drivers +12% Generation: enhanced results mainly due to renewables growth Gas: increasing gross margin thanks to price review and portfolio optimization actions Power Retail: positive trend in power retail activities in all regions Growth and portfolio optimization leading to gross margin increase 128