Capital Markets Day. Strategic Plan Alberto De Paoli CFO

Transcription

1 Capital Markets Day Strategic Plan Alberto De Paoli CFO

2 Agenda Alberto De Paoli (CFO) Capital allocation Our Plan Business line highlights Financial management Risk management Earnings & targets

3 Our Plan

4 Our plan New investment cycle drives growth while debt remains stable Average capex ( bn) +12% Net Debt ( bn) Old Plan EBITDA ( bn) E 2021 Net income ( bn) +20% +37% E E

5 Our plan % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0 % 6.0 % 4.0 % 2.0 % 0.0 % 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0 % 0.0 % Solid improvement in profitability, returns, and credit metrics Profitability Return on invested capital FFO/Net debt +400bps +140bps +460 bps 25% 27% 29% 29% 8.2% 8.8% 9.3% 10.0% 10.2% 25.0% 26.5% 27.4% 28.6% 31.1% 19% 7% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% E E E Net income/ebitda ROIC WACC 4

6 Capital Allocation

7 Capital allocation Increased capex plan focused on asset development and customers Capex plan 1 ( bn) EBITDA evolution by investment ( bn) +12% +20% old plan new plan EBITDA 2018E Asset development Customer Asset management EBITDA 2021 Asset development Customer Asset management Asset management pre-tax cumulated cash generation above 32 bn 1. It includes 1.6 bn BSO capex 6

8 Capital allocation 100 % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100 % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100 % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Growth driven by networks and renewables Capital allocation ( bn) Incremental EBITDA 2 ( bn) % 28% 64% Asset development 4.8 9% 66% 25% Customers % 52% 15% Asset management Total by business vs It excludes other equal to -0.1 mn. Thermal generation includes nuclear 2. Excluding the impact of our asset rotation programme 7

9 Capital allocation Beyond plan period, run rate capex grows from 6.7 bn to 8 bn Capex run-rate ( bn) Drivers of run rate by business line +19% Development of 3.5/4 GW per year Resiliency, digitalization and service quality Infrastructure investments to cope with customers needs 40 43% ~8 bn 42-45% Increased flexibility and restructuring in thermal generation fleet <5% <5% 7% Run rate old plan Run rate new plan Retail 8

10 Business Line Highlights

11 Business line highlights Renewables: diversifying mix, improved visibility Installed capacity and Production by technology 1 CAPACITY (GW) PRODUCTION (TWh) Sales portfolio composition PPA duration (yrs) +23% +32% E 2021 Hydro Wind Solar Other 132 ~ E % ~357 TWh 1% 35% Incentivized Forward sales > 15 38% % 9% % < 5 31% LT PPA contracted Open position ~ 65% of cumulated production sold forward 2 1. Consolidated capacity only 2. Volumes to be sold forward in year n-1 10

12 Business line highlights Incremental asset development capex fully allocated to renewables Asset development capex evolution ( bn) Incremental renewable capacity by geography and technology 8.3 (~ 2) ~ BSO 18% 5% 8% 4% ~5 GW 41% 60% 3.4 BSO 24% 40% Brazil USA Iberia Italy Chile Other Old plan BSO Organic New plan EBITDA/CAPEX 1 IRR spread 13% ~200 bps over WACC 1. Calculated as asset develpoment Ebitda at regime/capex (net of BSO) 11

13 Business line highlights Renewables: accelerating growth Gross Capex EBITDA evolution ( bn) +23% % 11.6 bn 8% Asset development Asset management 2018E Asset development Asset management 2021 Asset management pre-tax cumulated cash generation for ~12 bn 12

14 Business line highlights Networks: 4% total RAB growth Europe: RAB evolution ( bn) South America: RAB evolution ( bn) - +20% E E 2021 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Energy distributed (TWh) WACC nominal pre-tax 2. Blend of Rio, Cearà, Goias and Eletropaulo 13

15 Business line highlights Networks: profitability supported by asset turnaround and efficiencies Gross Capex EBITDA evolution ( bn) +17% 29% 11.1 bn 29% (0.3) % Asset development Customers Asset Management 2018E Eletropaulo Connections Tariff & volumes Efficiency FX

16 Business line highlights Networks: Eletropaulo turnaround doubling EBITDA Eletropaulo asset turnaround (EBITDA mn) Eletropaulo operational KPIs +2x 2018E Electricity distributed (TWh) Quality index 1 (%) Opex/end user ( /cust) 43 +9% bps 62-30% Networks benchmark RAB/end user (k /cust) Eletropaulo 2021 ~255 Cearà 2021 ~ E 6M 2018 pro forma 2018 pro forma Operating improvement 1. Quality on service rewards/penalties and losses reduction economic impact on gross margin 2021 Opex/end user ( /cust) ~44 ~ 36 15

17 Business line highlights Enel X: capturing new opportunities with customers Gross Capex EBITDA evolution 1 ( bn) 59% 1.1 bn 41% Customers +0.3 bn 0.5 Asset development Customers 0.1 Asset Development +0.2 bn 2018E e-city e-mobility e-home e-industry Rounded figures 16

18 Business lines highlights Retail: further growth on increase in customer base and efficiency EBITDA evolution ( bn) Free market customers (mn) volumes sold 3 (TWh) +17% +64% +29% E E E 2021 Italy South America Iberia Romania EBIT 5% 6% margin 1 Total 64 mn customers 2 69 mn 1. Includes Italy, Spain and Romania 2. Resulated and free market power and gas customers 3. Free market + PPAs 17

19 Financial Management

20 Financial management Stable debt throughout the plan Net debt evolution ( bn) Source of funds allocation ( bn) -% 0.3 (27.5) 41.1 (13.9) ~41.8 ~42.2 ~ E Sources of funds Incremental Debt Gross capex Dividends 19

21 Financial management % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Improving credit metrics Credit metrics Long term credit rating 25.0% 26.5% 27.4% 28.6% 31.1% Standard & Poors Rating BBB+ Outlook Stable 2.5x 2.5x 2.4x 2.3x 2.2x Moody s Baa2 Stable Fitch BBB+ Stable E Net debt/ebitda FFO/Net debt 20

22 Financial management % 4.5 0% 4.0 0% 3.5 0% 3.0 0% 2.5 0% Continued reduction in cost of debt Financial strategy for ( bn) Net financial expenses on debt ( bn) Amount Expected cost 1 Current total cost -4% Bond refinancing including green bonds Bank loans and other financing Hybrid refinancing % 2.5% 4.9% 4.2% 2.3% 6.4% 5.0% % 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% Emerging markets % 7.6% Total % 4.8% E Net financial expenses Cost of gross debt Previous plan 1. Enel estimates on current cost associated with financial instruments 21

23 Risk Management

24 Risk management 120 % 100 % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Operating risk: low EBITDA exposure to merchant risk EBITDA ( bn) Regulated EBITDA by business Regulated ~ 100% Merchant 28% Retail portfolio hedge Regulated, contracted under long term PPA, incentivized ~ 64% Regulated ~ 46% Regulated & contracted 72% Regulated ~ 23% Regulated ~ 20% EBITDA 23

25 Risk management % 140 % 120 % 100 % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Operating risk: natural margin hedge from retail portfolio Integrated margin Generation GM vs retail GM Hedging position on price driven production Coal & Gas 13% Hedging of CDS-CSS based on scenario/market Pool price indexed Large customers Ren & Nuke hedged price vs 2018 Retail margin vs % = +14% = Renewables + Nuke 87% Natural hedging with retail portfolio Small and medium customers 100% 44% Generation Gross margin A Retail portfolio

26 Risk management Operating risk: low regulatory risk over the plan period Europe WACC South America WACC Italy 5.9% Brazil % Iberia 1 Romania 5.5% / 6.0% 5.7% Colombia Chile 11.8% 10% BP Argentina Peru BP 12.5% 12% Stable and mature regulations Highly visible frameworks 1. WACC nominal pre-tax 2. Blend of Rio, Cearà, Goias and Eletropaulo 25

27 Risk management Operating risk: renewables growth already significantly addressed Additional capacity addressed 1 (GW) Pipeline by geography and technology 2 (GW) 11.6 ~60% addressed 2019 Coverage by yr 91% 21% 3% 7% 47% ~ % 34% 24% 19 GW 45% 52% ~5 Italy and Iberia Europe & North Africa Target additional capacity Addressed Residual target South America North & C. America Asia/Australia Total pipeline / residual target ~ 4x Short term pipeline 3 / residual target ~ 3x 1. It includes managed capacity 2. As of September Includes CODs only 26

28 Risk management Currency risk: low exposure to volatile currencies FX sensitivity 1 Avg. yearly impact ( mn) EBITDA by geography EBITDA by currency EBITDA Group NI BRL (180) 225 (30) 35 63% 63% ARS (35) 40 (6) bn 55.3 bn CLP (6) % 5% 26% 11% COP (100) 125 (12) 15 Europe South America North America EUR USD South America PEN (20) 25 (2) ~3 TOTAL (340) 420 (50) 60 % on yearly value (1.8%) 2.3% (<1.0%) 1.1% 1. Sensitivity based on +/-10% USD/LOC Rounded figures 27

29 Risk management Financial risk: gross debt hedges softening FX swings and rates movements Gross debt by currency at 2021 After swap Interest rate composition 57% 86% 22% 7% 6% 55.1 bn 7% 7% 55.1 bn 55.1 bn 78% 30% EUR USD GBP Other EUR USD GBP Other Floating Fixed + Hedged 28

30 Risk management Financial risk: limited re-financing needs; strong available liquidity Debt maturity by year 1 ( bn) Liquidity available 1 Maturities/Gross Debt 8.5% 8.1% 7.3% bn Total Refinancing on average gross debt New plan Last 3 yrs 8.2% 16.1% Available committed credit lines Cash Total liquidity / Maturities 112% 1. As of September

31 Earnings & Targets

32 Earnings and targets Strategy driving 37% increase in earnings vs 20% increase in EBITDA Group net ordinary income ( bn) 2018E-21 Group net ordinary income evolution ( bn) +37% (0.4) 0.1 (0.9) (0.5) E E EBITDA D&A Financial charges Taxes Minorities

33 Earnings and targets Visible value creation for our shareholders Earnings growth CAGR (%) Ordinary EBITDA ( bn) ~+6% Net ordinary income ( bn) ~+11% Value creation Pay-out ratio 70% 70% 70% 70% - Implicit DPS ( /sh) ~+12% Minimum dividend per share ( ) ~+9% Three years minimum dividend per share 32