Falck Renewables. C o m p a ny P ro f i l e. L o n d o n, 2 3 O c t o b e r

Transcription

1 Falck Renewables C o m p a ny P ro f i l e L o n d o n, 2 3 O c t o b e r

2 Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Falck Renewables S.p.A. (the "Company") for use during meetings with investors and financial analysts and is solely for information purposes. The information set out herein has not been verified by an independent audit company. Neither the Company nor any of its subsidiaries, affiliates, branches, representative offices (the Group ), as well as any of their directors, officers, employees, advisers or agents (the Group Representatives ) accepts any responsibility for/or makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information set out herein or any other related information regarding the Company and/or Group, whether written, oral or in visual or electronic form, transmitted or made available. This document may contain forward-looking statements about the Company and/or the Group based on Company s current views, beliefs, expectations, opinions, as well as based on current plans, estimates, assumptions, projections and projects of the Company and/or Group. These forward-looking statements are subject to significant risks, uncertainties and other factor (many of which are beyond the Company and/or the Group s control) which might cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Given these risks, uncertainties and other factors, you should not place undue reliance on the forwardlooking statements in this document. The information set out in this document is provided as of the date indicated herein. Except as required by applicable laws and regulations, the Company assumes no obligation to provide updates of any of the aforesaid forward-looking statements or to conform these statements to its actual results. Under no circumstances shall the Company, the Group and/or any of the Group Representatives be held liable (for negligence or otherwise) for any loss or damage howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise in connection with the document or the aforesaid forwardlooking statements. This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or subscribe the shares of the Company or Group and neither this entire document or a portion of it may constitute a recommendation to effect any transaction or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. This document may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any person other than the Company. By viewing and/or accepting a copy of this document, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 2

3 Agenda Group Overview and 2021 Roadmap Strategic Update 4 1H 2018 Highlights 21 Appendix 26 3

4 Falck Renewables at a glance A Pure Play in renewable sector MW Owned Capacity with no concessions >16.5 years Residual project life 2,400MW Capacity managed by Vector Cuatro.with Strong Economics not fully priced in M 2018 EBITDA expected +19% vs M 2018 Net Earnings (before minorities) expected > 20x vs % Current Dividend Yield** (average yearly growth 8.5%). and Sound Balance Sheet 616MW & 48% Revenues outside Italy* 82% Gross debt without derivatives IRS covered 325M Credit facilities available for growth (undrawn at the moment) *As of 30 June 2018 **As of 18 October 2018 and based on last dividend paid 4

5 Governance & Shareholder Board Composition Executive Director Non Executive Director Independent Dir. according to T.U.F. and Corporate Governance Code Current Shareholders Base Institutional Investors (27% of floating) The Board of Directors consists of twelve members. Six of them are Independent Directors (50%); one was appointed Lead Independent Director. The new Board of Directors as approved at The Shareholders Meeting on 27 April 2017 reflects the group s international presence and includes members with relevant experience. 5 * Management calculation on Factset data

6 Today s portfolio 970MW MW 354 MW * 113 MW 413 MW 49 MW 42 MW 6 * Includes minority stake in La Muela (26%) wind farm and Frullo Energia Ambiente (49%) for a total amount of 37MW

7 Young Asset Base June 2018 Technology MW WIND UK 413 WIND IT 292 Project's residual Life 15y Residual Debt's Life 10y Residual Incentive Life 11y6m Project's residual Life 14y Residual Debt's Life 7Y3m Residual Incentive Life 7y6m 5y 3y6m 6y9m 6y6m WIND SP 23 Project's residual Life 5y6m Residual Debt's Life 6m Residual Incentive Life 5y6m 5y WIND FR 42 Project's residual Life 19y9m Residual Debt's Life 9y Residual Incentive Life 6y9m 10y9m 13y SOLAR US * 113 Project's residual Life 34y Residual Debt's Life 14y9m Residual Incentive Life 10y6m 19y3m 23y6m SOLAR IT 16 Project's residual Life 14y9m Residual Debt's Life 8y Residual Incentive Life 12y6m 6y9m 2y3m WTE 20 Project's residual Life 5y3m Residual Debt's Life 5y3m Residual Incentive Life 5y3m BIOMASS IT 14 TOTAL 933 Project's residual Life 12y6m Residual Debt's Life 1y6m Residual Incentive Life 7y6m Project's residual Life 16y9m Residual Debt's Life 9y Residual Incentive Life 9y3m 11y 5y 7y9m 7y6m Residual Project Life Residual Debt Life Project cash flow after debt repayment Wholesale price Residual incentive life 7 * PPA secured and SREC

8 Asset Managed by Vector Cuatro 2.4 GW Asset Management 53 GW Technical Services 4.6 GW Transaction Services Professionals International experience VC Offices 8

9 Mission: A Renewables Pure Play Generating Sustainable Value Create a scalable, profitable, clean energy platform that develops new advanced solutions for our customers, making them produce and consume energy in a more sustainable way to preserve the planet for future generations. Evolving Global Multi-Client Renewable Services Platform Established Asset Management and Technical Advisory Services business Expansion plan in Energy Management and Energy Efficiency Driven by Digital Technologies Clients and Community-Driven Sustainable Approach Our approach maximizes the creation of business and societal value while preserving the environment where we live and operate Financial Strength and Flexibility Strong balance sheet Sustainable financial position Capital efficiency Strong Wind and Solar Developer/ Operator in Attractive Markets Quality solar and wind assets in markets with strong fundamentals Growing pipeline and diversified asset base Led by experienced management team In-house operational expertise FALCK RENEWABLES, SUSTAINABILITY AT THE CORE Balanced, Scalable Growth Reaching scale of core operations in: Asset development Investing in asset management and technical advisory services Increased access to financial partners 9

10 PIPELINE EVOLUTION Strategic Priority: Asset Growth and Execution So Far Solar and Wind Asset and Pipeline Growth Onshore wind and solar remain core Drive growth in installed capacity of owned assets and evolve asset base Expand and diversify pipeline Deconsolidation of non core Waste Treatment business (Esposito) - Announced on 12 October MW ~ 50MW 71 MW Source Capacity Country Status COD MW In construction 4Q 2019/ MW In construction 4Q 2019/ MW Ready to build 4Q 2019 ~ 600MW 10 MW 10

11 Asset Growth: a more balanced mix of sources 2016: Falck Renewables Relaunched its Development Strategy Portfolio combination: balanced mix of Greenfield, Ready-to- Build and operational assets Geographical presence: differentiated; maintaining low country risk New Additions Evolving Towards a More Balanced Mix (MW) Cumulative 553 CAGR. 11% 553 Outlined plans to establish assets in New Markets Solar 42% Plan: Consolidation and Fine Tuning Additional total installed capacity: target +15% (1,375 MW by 2021) More balanced geographical diversification Larger presence in solar Wind 58% Further development with ambition to reach larger pipeline Plan Coverage 11 coverage 2018/2019 Target IRR = 150 bps + country WACC (maintained) Starting MW 822 North Europe: France, UK, Netherlands Nordics: Sweden, Norway North America South Europe: Italy, Spain In operation In construcion Gap 1,375 Ending MW

12 Asset Growth: More Ambitious and Balanced North Europe France, UK, Netherlands Nordics Norway, Sweden North America South Europe Italy, Spain Installed Capacity (MW) by Region ( ) , % 1, , , Installed Capacity (MW) by Technology ( ) Wind Solar Other 2% 93% 11% 84% 9% 88% 18% 79% Energy Output (TWh) 12 Old Plan New Plan Old New Old New Old * Includes Wte and Biomass plants New Old New Old New

13 Strategic Priority: Investing in Ser vices Platform Grow Asset Management and Tech Services offerings to asset owners Diversify service offerings and client base Expand into Energy Management and Energy Efficiency activities RENEWABLE ENERGY ASSET MANAGEMENT and ADVISORY TECH SERVICES ENERGY MANAGEMENT ENERGY EFFICIENCY Asset Management Transfer of Technical activities from Falck Renew. Portfolio management (Hedging, Dispatching and unbalancing cost Management) Leader in Italy in flexibility management services and in energy consumption monitoring Technical Advisory Acquisition of Acquisition of 13 Transaction Advisory Significant Step Forward (Started commercial activity to manage Energy Efficiency, Demand/Response and PPP on PA)

14 Ser vices Plaform: Business Targets Target 2021 DIGITAL PLATFORM 3 key goals for Falck Renewables IoT platform Efficient processes Partners collaboration Advanced analytics on energy, operation and maintenance MW under management 5.0 GW RES ASSET MANAGEMENT and TECH SERVICES Technical advisory and engineering Transaction services Increase market share and technical competences 2.8x 2017 Revenues 1.5x 2017 Revenues Further M&A Dispatching of own plants and third parties 1.5 TWh + ENERGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES Software platform Advanced Demand Side Management solutions Storage and plants ancillary services Integrated with AM Also through M&A Pilots and through M&A New cogeneration projects 2 MW ENERGY EFFICIENCY Public Administration (lighting) projects Energy Service Company offering 5 municipalities Also through M&A 14

15 Ser vices Platform: Key financials Targets Capex: 33M Revenues 2021 REVENUES [ M] External Growth 2021 OLD 2021 NEW Organic 28M Turnover 44M Turnover EBITDA [ M] 1 4, M EBITDA 8M EBITDA ,5 15

16 Achievements Strategic Support from Financial Flexibility: Progressive Delivery Financing of the Scottish wind farm Assel Valley for GBP42.3M on 2 December 2016 Profitability and Financial Flexibility Increase efficiencies and improve profitability Optimize value from existing assets Expand access to debt and minority financial partners Renegotiation of the existing financing of the Italian wind farm Geopower for a total amount of 195.0M on 1 June 2017 Financing of the Scottish wind farm Auchrobert for GBP49.3M on 22 December 2017 Progressive decrease of the average interest rate: from 4.30% in 2016 to 3.71% end of 1H 2018 Tax equity partnership agreement signed for USD 4.5M on Middleton project Amendment of the existing Corporate Loan one year in advance relative to: Increase of the existing revolving credit line from 150M to 325M Extension of the maturity date from 6/30/2020 to 12/31/2023 All the other conditions - spread over uribor, Covenants (NFP/EBITDA and NFP/Equity), Rep and Warranties, etc. - remain unchanged 16

17 Financial Goals EBITDA ( M) CAGR +8.5% 1.4x Debt to Equity Ratio 1.5x 1.5x 163** Updated in 1H 2018 presentation NFP ( M) NFP to EBITDA Ratio 7.0x 7.0x 7.0x Falck Renewables Debt Covenant 650** 4.7x 4.6x 3.9x Falck Renewables NFP to EBITDA Ratio Sound ratios with room for further expansion Updated in 1H 2018 presentation 17

18 Based on pay-out ratio Maintaining Financial Flexibility and Delivering Value Improvement of the financial stability Clear Dividend Policy Dividend Per Share (in c ) Operational targets 4.7x Old 4.4x New Average NFP/EBITDA Maintain a sustainable ratio throughout the plan; well within the corporate financing covenant Years in Y-axis represent timing of dividend payment e.g., 2017 represents FY2016 dividend payment Roadmap enables sustainable investments in short and long-term growth while supporting progressive annual dividend *Scope includes all wind and solar plants (as-is + new markets) **Calculated on weighted MW installed per year

19 Price (100 = 1 January 2018) FKR Stock Price vs. Electricity Prices in Italy and in the UK 190 Falck Renewables S.p.A. Electricity prices ITA Electricity prices UK % 25.2% Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep % L1M L3M L6M YTD Falck Renewables S.p.A. -10,7% -12,0% -11,5% -15,2% Electricity Prices ITA 4,0% 20,9% 57,5% 31,2% Electricity Prices UK -3,6% 14,5% 31,5% 25,2% 19 Source: elaborations on Factset and Bloomberg data

20 Falck Renewables sustainability at the core it is not only about WHAT we do, but HOW we do it, and the VALUES that we live by. FALCK RENEWABLE SUSTAINABILITY CHARTER 1. WE PROMOTE THE LOCAL WORKFORCE AND SUPPLY CHAIN. 2. WE WELCOME THE PARTICIPATION OF COMMUNITIES IN OUR BUSINESS, ALSO THROUGH OWNERSHIP SCHEMES. 3. WE BACK COMMUNITY PROJECTS - FROM SOCIAL & EDUCATIONAL TO ENVIRONMENTAL & INFRASTRUCTURAL AND WE ENCOURAGE COMMUNITIES TO SHARE PROJECTS PRACTICES TO MAXIMIZE BENEFITS FOR OTHERS. We believe in creating at the same time business value and value for local communities, while preserving the environment where we operate. 4. WE SHARE OUR KNOWLEDGE OF ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY TO SPREAD THE WORD ABOUT ITS IMPORTANCE. 5. WE ENSURE ALL OUR OPERATIONS HAVE THE MINIMUM IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT. 20

21 1H 2018 HIGHLIGHTS

22 1H 2018 Highlights Improved assets performance and growth of installed capacity: Better production compared to 1H 2017 (+12.9%): perimeter (+112.5MW) and load factor (average 28.1% vs 27.4% in 2017) Poor 2Q wind conditions vs index, improving solar vs index Confirmed higher prices in the UK (+10%) and lower in Italy and Spain (respectively -5% and -8%) vs 1H 2017 Increased solar asset base in Massachusetts through acquisition of 14.5MW in operation and COD of 5.99MW (Middleton). Construction in progress in Sweden and Norway (171.2MW in construction and 21MW construction ready) Services performance: Energy management: 187 GWh dispatched in-house in Italy (~ 42% of energy produced) Active hedging and unbalancing costs management Acquisition of Windfor srl (Technical Advisory) well-known leader in Italy in technical advisory services for wind energy. Further M&A scouting ongoing Vector Cuatro: Technical Advisory revenues improving, Asset Management revenues decreasing 22 Sharp improvement vs. 1H H EBITDA at 99.4M vs (+27%) including a non-recurring transaction of 7.1M EBIT at 62.8M vs. 1H 2017 (+43.1%) Group Net Earnings at 27.7M vs. 12.8M in 1H 2017 NFP at 580M slightly better than 585M end of Contained impact from GBP exchange ratio, USD in line Guidance improved Best 1H results ever

23 1H 2018 results: a continuous improvement * 23 *It includes impact of non-recurring transaction of 7.1M As at 31 December restated

24 1H 2018 Cash Flow ( M) PROJECT FINANCING (792) CASH 163 SPV CASH 99 CII HOLDCO 10 CII HOLDCO 9 CASH 102 SPV CASH 118 PROJECT FINANCING (746) FV DER. (46) OTHER (17) FV DER. (43) OTHER (21) 24

25 2018 Guidance: further improvement from 1H results ( M) CMD* 1Q Update 1H Update Assumptions EBITDA » Strong 1H 2018 results (including 7.1M non-recurring) NET EARNINGS (before minorities) 29 > 30 39» 20.5MW dc of US solar in operations in 2H 2018» Impact from IFRS 9 adoption NFP (687) (660) (650)» Exchange rate in line with expectations 25 * CMD 12 December 2017

26 26 Appendix

27 1H 2018 Debt Breakdown Gross Debt Nature Without Derivatives Gross Debt by Currency Without Derivatives Gross Debt Without Derivatives Hedged 45% 1H % 55% 1H % 770M 770M 770M Financing with recourse Project financing without recourse Other financings without recourse GBP EUR USD Hedged Un-hedged Average interest rate (including interest rate swap) of 3.71%* 27 Gross Debt = Project Financing + Other Debt + Debt vs CII HoldCo *excluding IFRS 9 effect

28 Scenario Assumptions Our solid and reliable path forward is informed by revised scenario assumptions and our strong year one performance. Lower Energy Prices in Europe Nominal Italy PUN Old Plan /MWh Italy PUN New Plan /MWh Italy Green Certificate Old Plan /MWh Italy Green Certificate New Plan /MWh Uk baseload Old Plan /MWh UK baseload New Plan /MWh Higher Interest Rates Euribor & Libor Euribor Old Plan 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% Euribor New Plan 0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 1.00% UK Libor Old Plan 0.50% 0.50% 0.60% 0.80% UK Libor New Plan 1.00% 1.20% 1.30% 1.40% Lower wind Capex/MW M/MW 2018 Wind Old Plan 1.55 Wind New Plan 1.31 Solar PV Old Plan 1.04 Solar PV New Plan 1.07 More Solar in Mix of Capacity Additions 28 Larger Funding from third parties (Tax Equity in the U.S.)

29 2021 Roadmap: Growth plan Asset Owned 1,375 MW vs. 950 MW end of 2017 assets owned +12% CAGR in EBITDA ( ) +36% growth in wind assets ( ) 248 MW Solar installed capacity ( ) 29 Vector Cuatro only presence Falck Renewables current presence Falck Renewables new markets Growth in mature markets, expansion of Vector Cuatro s services dedicated to assets owners VC as an antenna to monitor emerging market opportunities Services ~5,000 MW assets under management +57% CAGR in EBITDA ( ) Engineering focus on wind and higher value added services 5.8% contribution to ordinary group Net Income

30 Pipeline Coverage Pipeline Targets (MW) 1, Almost all additions BEYOND 2021 ADDITIONS ADDITIONS Gross** Net * Gross** Net * To be covered (Ready to Build/Merger & Acquisition) Greenfiled/JDA Secured % 42% 313 8% 49% 43% Pipeline Coverage In Business Plan (MW) of which 32% covered by existing company pipeline (projects under development identified and under control adjusted by probability of success) 40% 100% 60% of which 50% covered by existing projects under development adjusted by probability of success 2018 and 2019 Additions 2020 and 2021 Additions 2019 and 2020 Additions At end of 2017 Target end of and 2022 Additions 30 * Projects under development identified and under control adjusted by probability of success ** Projects under development identified and under control

31 Ser vices Platform: 3 Key Drivers and Market Opportunities 1 - Growth of RES capacity 2 - Flexible power systems 3 - Prosumers Expected growth in RES 2030 Example of power production 2030 Example of energy Monitoring Tool Efficient asset management Flex Demand to match supply Consumption Behaviours changing Continued market overall growth Good margins in spite of competition and price pressure IoT, advanced analytics services increase added value Market value [M ] Key parameters Demand response and storage become critical system resources Promising and evolving market but still unclear economics Regulation plays an important role Digitalisation enables consumption awareness/action Consumers show time based and price based sensitive responses Performance based service contracts and CPPA** Public Administration active actor Market value [M ] Key parameters Market value [M ] Key parameters 1,140 Growth Profitability Concentration Regulat. Risk 7% 12% 25% medium 776 Growth Profitability Concentration Regulat. Risk 8% n.a. n.a. high 15,765 Growth Profitability Concentration Regulat. Risk 6% 7% 20% medium 31 * Source: Accenture. Market coverage IT, SP, USA, UK and DE (for EM only). Profitability: Net Operating Income ** CPPA: Corporate Power Purchase Agreement.

32 Raising 2021 Guidance ~ 714M Cumulated CapEx* vs 702M Old Plan ~ 652M Cumulated Operating Cash Flow* vs 685M Old Plan Financing Funded by existing credit line and operating cash flow through From July 2020, renewal of corporate credit line with additional debt ( M) ~ 208M 2021 EBITDA vs 201M Old Plan ~ 52M 2021 Net Earnings** vs 45M Old Plan > 30M 2021 Group Net Earnings 32 * ** Before minorities After minorities

33 Financials Evolution % Net Earnings/EBITDA FFO/EBITDA 48% NET EARNINGS* EVOLUTION (M ) +79% 20% 25% NetDebt/EBITDA FFO/Net Debt 4,8x 4,6x 4,4x 4,2x 4,0x 3,8x 3,6x 3,4x 16% 10% 4,7x 3,9x % 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% (21) (7) (9) 52 ROE ROI 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 7% 9% 6% 10% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2018 EBITDA D&A Financial Charges Taxes % % * Before minorities

34 NFP Evolution ( M) Cash available 121 SPV Cash SPV Cash 73 7 NFP Variation (251) vs. (323) Old Plan Project finance Other debt (794) (25) (562) Capex (714) Operating Cash Flow & Development expenses Tax Equity / Other minorities contributions 82 Financial charges, Derivatives FV and exchange rate (153) Dividends (118) (813) (679) Project finance (205) FKR Corp. Loan (1) Other debt 34

35 Cumulative Capex ( M) By Technology By Area By Contribution to EBITDA Services 6% Other 1% Nordics 34% North Europe 19% Partial/Nill 15% North Europe 10% South Europe 14% South Europe % Solar 35% Wind 58% Nordics 34% USA 26% USA 26% 35

36 Well on Track to Deliver on 2021 Roadmap 2019 Milestones 2021 Milestones 112 MW of new assets expected in operations Construction in Norway + Sweden well undergoing Met or exceed pipeline growth Develop new IT digital platform to support and optimize Service business Expand Asset Management and Technical Services and deliver investments through external growth Secure financing options to fund future growth Deliver annual dividend growth (8.5%) Increase installed capacity to 1,375 MW 1,5 GW pipeline gross with strong solidity and promising success rate Increase EBITDA diversification and increase Net Income quality with growing services contribution Confirmed commitment to top tier operational efficiency and reduced G&A impact Attracted financial partners funding Deliver attractive shareholder returns through sustainable pay out growth upside We have raised our 2021 guidance despite more conservative assumptions and have refined our 2021 Roadmap to expand our services business, while maintaining financial flexibility and delivering value to shareholders 36