Trading at French PEGs. EFET workshop on Spanish Gas Hub - 23 July 2008
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1 Trading at French PEGs EFET workshop on Spanish Gas Hub - 23 July 2008
2 Agenda GRTgaz project for the French market At the heart of the European market How can TSOs make a difference? The Basics Latest development at the PEG How can TSOs make a difference? Going Further Spanish & French markets mutual benefits - 2 -
3 GRTgaz project for the French market GRTgaz objectives to foster liquidity on our market to make our hubs an attractive place to sell more capacity to as many players as possible to let end consumers benefits from free markets A good place to take part to gas trading Geographically speaking, GRTgaz is well positioned in terms of diversity Various gas sources available for arbitrage Players from neighbouring countries Not yet a mature market Opportunities in power generation LNG (Henry Hub, Asian markets) Algeria, LNG North Sea NBP, Zee, TTF Russia, EGT, Baumgarten Libya, Algeria, Russia, PSV A place where NBP/TTF traders can meet Mediterranean utilities, where eastern European energy companies can meet LNG sellers - 3 -
4 At the heart of the European market: our shippers Number of Shippers Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03
5 At the heart of the European market: major Hubs NBP Zee Platform TTF Mature spot & forward markets Significant spot & forward activity Some spot & forward activity Interconnection Transit pipeline PEG Nord EGT VP BEB VP PEG SO PEG Sud Baumgarten CEGH AOC PSV - 5 -
6 How can TSOs make a difference? The Basics Clear market structure Unrestricted Entry Exit Zones Any entry point can be used to supply any consumer in the zone (and the opposite) Volumes once in a zone can be traded without any reference to source or destination Concentration of liquidity in a limited number of points in Europe: Hub = Virtual Point (except Zeebrugge & Baumgarten) Between 2 Hubs : 1 link, 1 capacity price 4 GRTgaz zones 1 TIGF zone 2008 Transparency Up to date and public data for all entries, exits and links: Daily historical flows available as CSV Total / booked / available capacity 10 years ahead Maintenance schedule Simplicity of operations Daily balancing regime Firmness of the HUB 3 zones «in series»
7 How can TSOs make a difference? The Basics Stability / Confidence Regulated tariffs linked to the asset base Visibility provided by GRTgaz 10-year statement Actual and sizeable access to existing firm capacity Dynamic capacity marketing: Periodic sale of large amounts (20% short term) Ex: Three OSP in 2008 for the new North-South link totalling 143 GWh/day in the N to S direction Releasable capacity Ex: Obergailbach: 50 GWh/day sold to 13 shippers for the gas years 2007/08 and 08/09 Optimisation of existing (short term UIOLI) Providing additional capacity where the markets needs it Open Seasons, in coordination with adjacent TSOs Partnership with LNG terminal sponsors Discussion with market participants through a consultative process (10-year statement) - 7 -
8 PEG activity: signs that liquidity is picking up PEG Trading figures published by GRTgaz: Net Nominated Quantities Net: resulting from all bilateral deals between shippers (spot & forward deals) Nominated: submitted D-1 / within-day by shippers to GRTgaz through Edig@s or extranet 15,000 4,500 Net Energy Traded (GWh) Average Trade Size (MWh) 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 Total Energy Traded (GWh) Average Trade Size (MWh) Number of Trades 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Number of Trades 500 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 But we do not see what products are traded Short term optimisation such as Hub to Hub arbitrage, storage / time value Oil or gas-to-gas indexed deals, hedging / speculative trading with the forward curve Third party sources of information Specialized press: price & deals reporting Brokers screens & content aggregators - 8 -
9 Price developments on PEG Nord Day-ahead prices on selected European Hubs PEG Nord basis to other hubs are tightening PEG Nord Bid-Ask Narrowing => Sign of increasing liquidity 5,00 4,50 4,00 45,00 3,50 3,00 40,00 2,50 35,00 2,00 30,00 1,50 1,00 25,00 Bid-Ask PEG Nord 0,50 20,00 15,00 PEG Nord - NBP Basis PEG Nord - TTF Basis PEG Nord - EGT Basis 0,00 01/10/07 08/10/07 15/10/07 22/10/07 29/10/07 05/11/07 12/11/07 19/11/07 26/11/07 03/12/07 10/12/07 17/12/07 24/12/07 31/12/07 07/01/08 14/01/08 21/01/08 28/01/08 04/02/08 11/02/08 18/02/08 25/02/08 03/03/08 10/03/08 17/03/08 24/03/08 31/03/08 07/04/08 14/04/08 21/04/08 28/04/08 05/05/08 12/05/08 19/05/08 26/05/08 02/06/08 09/06/08 16/06/08 23/06/08 30/06/08 07/07/08 10,00 5,00 0,00 01/12/05 01/03/06 01/06/06 01/09/06 01/12/06 01/03/07 01/06/07 01/09/07 01/12/07 01/03/08 01/06/ /MWh /MWh Note: Basis shown are absolute value of the differential between PEG Nord and other Hubs Midpoints
10 How can TSOs make a difference? Going Further Capacity Marketing Primary market: Simple & re-saleable products Bundled Products with TIGF Secondary market: New tool with Fluxys (end 08) Commodity world products (DA, Front-month ) Traders environment (Trayport Globalvision) 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 Gas exchange with Powernext (end 08) Transparent & objective market prices Anonymous and secured transactions (clearing) 11/04/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /08/ /08/ /08/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/2007 Prix Vente Nord Zee_bid_Nord_H Market based balancing (May 07) Buying from / selling to the market for balancing purposes Shippers imbalances cashed-out at market price Market coupling (later on) North < > South French PEGs < > other HUBs 05/12/ /12/ /12/ /12/
11 Spanish & French markets mutual benefits South Gas Regional Initiative OSP for new capacity (2010) OS with long term commitments to underpin capacity developments (2013+) Increasingly liquid trading points on each side of the Pyreneans, but markets remain barely linked Infrastructures are essential as these markets are currently isolated. But equally important, short term optimisation requires an appropriate market framework What market structure between hubs in the South Region? How to enable deals between actively traded points in Spain and in France? Short term capacity allocation? Spanish gas exchange? Coupling (spot), Basis trading (futures)?
12 Capacities +55GWh/d in 2013 to Spain +35GWh/d in 2013 to France +165GWh/d in 2013 to France 230GWh/d end GWh/d in 2013 to Spain +230GWh/d in 2015 to France +180GWh/d in 2015 to Spain
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