Kentucky Risk MAP It s not Map Mod II

Transcription

1 Kentucky Risk MAP It s not Map Mod II Risk Mapping Assessment and Planning Carey Johnson Kentucky Division of Water carey.johnson@ky.gov

2 What is Risk MAP? Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) is a collaborative effort between the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Kentucky Division of Water (KDOW) that will provide communities with flood information and tools they can use to enhance hazard mitigation planning activities and better protect their citizens. Through more accurate flood hazard maps, risk assessment tools, and outreach support, Risk MAP builds on Map Modernization and strengthens local ability to make informed decisions about reducing risk from natural hazards. 2

3 The Risk MAP Vision Through collaboration with State and local entities, Risk MAP will deliver quality data that increases public awareness and leads to action that reduces risk to life and property. Risk MAP will focus on products and services beyond the traditional Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). FEMA and KDOW will work with officials to help use flood risk data and tools to effectively communicate risk to citizens and enable communities to enhance their corresponding mitigation plans. 3

4 Map Mod vs. Risk MAP Map Mod Goal was to revise state s inventory of FIRMs Created regulatory products FIRM FIS DFIRM Database Used best available data Topography Flood Studies from various sources Engineering conducted on countywide basis Outreach/communication limited Risk MAP Enhanced analyses in high risk, high need areas Regulatory products and nonregulatory products Changes since last FIRM Depth Grids Risk Assessment (HAZUS) Areas of Mitigation Interest If the risk and need is present, new data generated to support enhanced analyses Topography (LIDAR) New flood studies with recurrence intervals Engineering conducted on watershed basis Focus on Risk Communication 4

5 Map Mod vs. Risk MAP Map Mod 5-year program with specific performance metrics KY has new inventory of digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps Risk MAP State empowerment; local and state needs met Goal is to understand flood risk, communicate that risk and lead to actions that mitigate risk 5

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7 Risk MAP Timeline Longer than Map Mod timeline Allows for series of checkpoints with stakeholders Discovery Engineering data review Flood risk review Resilience meeting Allows for potential actions to incorporate data into local mitigation plans Preliminary products issuance Comments/appeals/protests Regulatory products / non-regulatory products finalized Communication with stakeholders throughout process 7

8 Risk MAP limitations Still under development KDOW served as pilot for Coordinated Needs Management Strategy (CNMS) and 2 Early Demonstration Projects with FEMA Goal was to provide feedback and recommendations from a state partner on what works and what doesn t work Funding derived from congressional appropriation for flood hazard identification and the National Flood Insurance Fund (NFIF) Limits Risk MAP development at this point to floods Expectation is to nurture partnerships with other federal, state, and local agencies for other natural hazards 8

9 Risk MAP Process Project Prioritization Based on need and risk Discovery Establish wide range of stakeholders (floodplain administrators, EM directors, planning departments, GIS specialists, public works, transportation, politicians) Elevation Data Leverage existing where possible Collect new LIDAR where needed Watershed-based engineering analyses and mapping Risk Assessment HAZUS Mitigation Planning Risk Communication ACTION 9

10 Risk Determined by multitude of factors including: 1. Population Density 2. History of repetitive losses/flood insurance claims/flood disaster 3. High growth areas 4. NFIP flood insurance policy base 5. Number of stream miles 6. Large or increasing numbers of LOMCs FEMA s intent is to identify risk based on an Annualized Average Loss (AAL) HAZUS study 10

11 * Priority based on risk subject to change 11

12 Need Coordinated Needs Management Strategy (CNMS) Defines an approach and structure for the identification and management of flood hazard mapping needs that will support datadriven planning and flood map updates Tracks the lifecycle of needs specifying opportunities to capture needs and proposing methods for their evaluation to inform planning, tracking and reporting processes. Establishes geospatially enabled, effective means for users to enter, monitor, and update floodplain study inventories. Used to document the areas across KY where flood studies meet FEMA s current validity standards Flood study validity determined by identifying critical and secondary deficiencies One or more critical deficiency or four or more secondary deficiencies classify a flood study as invalid 12

13 Elevation Data Acquisition Improves engineering data and supports risk assessment data development Elevation data is essential to the accuracy and reliability of flood hazard data Updated digital elevation data enables better risk assessments Detailed, digital elevation data supports innovative risk communication products 13

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15 Watershed Study Approach Improves engineering credibility and opens the door to understanding risks in a more holistic, comprehensive way Allows for a better understanding of flood hazards as a result of more comprehensive assessments of stream and tributary relationships Provides a framework to evaluate flood risk, engineering need, elevation data acquisition availability and gaps, and availability of community contribution by watershed 15

16 * Watershed sequencing subject to change based on funding, risk, and need 16

17 Engineering and Mapping Identifies flood hazards, provides local floodplain management data, supports the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), and provides data for risk assessments and mitigation plans for flood hazards Includes the scientific collection, processing, and analysis of flood hazard data to provide communities with accurate flood maps and risk assessment products Engineering and mapping data provide the foundation for more effective risk communications through assessments and also enable effective mitigation at the local level Includes significant investments in the flood mapping of areas impacted by levees and coastal flood hazard 17

18 Risk Assessment Allows communities to make informed mitigation decisions by providing products and technologies that communicate and visualize risks Equips communities with the information and tools they need to develop effective mitigation plans Provides communities with flood risk information through a Flood Risk Report, Flood Risk Map, and Flood Risk Database 18

19 Mitigation Planning Support Provides technical assistance, incentivizes risk reduction activities at the local level, and develops the programmatic infrastructure to monitor community efforts Enables communities to assess risks and identify actions to reduce vulnerability to those risks Enhances collaboration with and among local stakeholders Provides tools to improve communities understanding of risk and facilitate mitigation planning and local risk reduction efforts Incentivizes local effective mitigation planning and risk reduction activities 19

20 Risk Communication Motivates citizens to make informed decisions regarding their risks and encourages communities to take the lead in protecting their constituents Enhances local capabilities to communicate effectively with constituents about risk Allows for an exchange of information about risk between FEMA and other stakeholders Provides customizable communications plans, key messages, and materials to communities Facilitates national and local collaboration through key partnerships 20

21 What are the Risk MAP Improvements that support Local Communities? Improved Land Use Decisions Pre- Disaster Risk Reduction Measures Improved Building Codes Improved Risk Communication Risk Assessment Studies & Tools HAZUS Improved Mitigation Plans - State & Local 21

22 Flood Risk Products In addition to the regulatory products created for Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) revisions, Risk MAP will provide state and community officials with three Flood Risk Products to help them gain a more holistic understanding of flood risk and its potential impact on communities and individuals. Flood risk report Flood risk map Flood risk database These products are comparable to the Flood Insurance Study (FIS), Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM), and Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map (DFIRM) Database that users are accustomed to but provide additional information for mitigation and planning purposes. The components of the flood risk report and map are all compiled in the flood risk database 22

23 Flood Risk Report Provides stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of flood hazard and risk exposure within their community, watershed, or other geographic area. Provides risk assessment information at the project level, placing emphasis on risk reduction activities that may have impacts beyond the specific stream area or community Provides risk assessment information that can be incorporated into mitigation plans 23

24 Flood Risk Map Depicts flood risk data for jurisdictions within the project area, emphasizing that risk reduction activities may have an impact beyond the site Project-wide (e.g. watershed, levee area, or other distinct geographic area) base map information reflecting community boundaries, major roads, and streams Composite HAZUS losses based on updated flood engineering Areas of Mitigation Interest (if required) New study areas 24

25 Flood Risk Database Flood Risk Datasets Changes Since Last FIRM data (CSLF) Flood Depth and Analysis Grids Depth grids as companion products for newly developed 10%, 4%, 2%, 1% and 0.2% annual chance flood analyses Percent annual chance of flooding grids Percent of being flooding in 1 30-year period grid Flood Risk Assessment 2010 FEMA HAZUS Annualized Average Loss (AAL) HAZUS results conducted for new/revised studies Annualized loss analysis Levee Considerations 1% annual chance depth grid Enhanced Flood Risk Datasets Flood Depth and Analysis Grids Annualized depth grids (from 10%, 4%, 2%, 1% and 0.2% flood frequency data) Water surface elevation grids 1% plus confidence interval flood depth grids Depth and Elevation Change Grids Velocity Grids Supplemental Depth Grids (e.g. 50%, 20%, 0.5% annual chance flood events Flood Risk Assessment Additional HAZUS analysis using locally supplied data Areas of Mitigation Interest Levee Considerations Multi-frequency depth grids 25

26 Changes since last FIRM This dataset helps communities understand changes to their flood maps and prepare for the upcoming flood map adoption process Is a spatial dataset that identifies areas of floodplain and flood zone changes that have occurred since the previous flood map study Captures areas where the floodplain and floodway have increased or decreased as well as areas where the flood zone designation has changed (e.g., A to AE) Engineering factors that may have contributed to a change are identified in areas where the mapped flood hazard has changed Built environment affected by the change is quantified and summarized to help locate previously unidentified areas at risk 26

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28 Flood Depth and Analysis Grids Help communities better understand their flood hazard and risk in the mapped floodplain Depth grids will be produced for the 10%(10 year), 4%(25 year), 2%(50 year), 1%(100 year), and 0.2%(500 year) annual chance flood events. Analysis grids will be used to create additional analyses that depict the percent annual chance of flooding and the percent chance of flooding over a 30-year time period (the time period of a typical mortgage) in the floodplain 28

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34 Risk Assessment Helps guide community mitigation efforts by highlighting areas where risk reduction actions may produce the highest return on investment Basic refined HAZUS loss estimation analyses build on the 2010 nationwide HAZUS level 1 Average Annualized Flood Loss (AAL) study Estimation analyses will be done for flooding sources with default HAZUS building stock information Where local built environment data is available enhanced HAZUS or other risk assessment analyses are possible The pursuit of enhanced analysis is encouraged and is achievable by providing FEMA with additional GIS data such as parcel data, building footprints, or elevation certificates Results of both the basic refined and enhanced HAZUS analysis can be incorporated into hazard mitigation plans. 34

35 Areas of Mitigation Interest Helps communities better understand the impact of multiple physical factors on the floodplain elevation and extent Identifies conditions within a flood risk project area (watershed or otherwise) that may contribute to the severity of the flood hazard and associated losses Conditions include: areas with a history of flood claims hydraulic or other structures that contribute to backwater (e.g., undersized culverts, bridges and dams) and areas experiencing land use change or development By identifying these conditions within the watershed, this product will also assist communities in determining potential mitigation opportunities. 35

36 Results of Risk MAP Products and Communication Risk MAP More Engaged communities Accurate, precise maps Effective risk assessments and mitigation plans Coordination between and within communities Effective communication to constituents about risk Less Confusion about project timeline and scope Contentious appeals Negative press attention Risk MAP