Outlook for the Auto Industry. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June 4, 2004
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1 Outlook for the Auto Industry Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June 4, 2004
2 2004 U.S. Outlook: Risk and Opportunities Theme GDP Industry CPI Key Driver Oil Interest Rates Economy booms Hiring & investment return > $25 Fed raises rates beginning in early 2004 Recovery speeds up Stimulus pushes growth to trend $25 Fed holds steady through mid-2004 Continued weak recovery Jobless recovery continues < $25 Further cuts Recovery falters Consumers pull back, savings increase < $20 Unconventional monetary policy
3 2004 U.S. Outlook: Risk and Opportunities Theme GDP Industry CPI Key Driver Oil Interest Rates Economy Booms All cylinders firing > $30 Fed raises rates Very Strong Growth Hiring & investment return > $25 Fed raises Second half 2004 Recovery Speeds Up Stimulus pushes growth to trend $25 Fed holds steady through 2004 Weak Recovery Jobless recovery continues $20 Further cuts
4 Annual Vehicle Sales U.S. Automotive Industry Million Units Oil Shock 15.4 Oil Shock '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05
5 CPI New Vehicles and Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate % Change Year/Year 4.5% New Vehicle CPI Yen/$ % O/(U) Structural Rate -35% 3.5% Yen/Dollar (inverted scale) Stronger Yen -20% 2.5% 1.5% -5% 0.5% 10% -0.5% 25% -1.5% Weaker Yen 40% -2.5% '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
6 Incentives and the Market United States Million Units Industry SAAR Big 3 Incentives $/Vehicle '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 500
7 Big 3 Market Share % Share (3 Month Moving Average) 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
8 Auto Industry Leading Indicators Ability To Buy May 03 May 04 Disposable Income Green Green Household Debt Yellow Green Yield Curve Green Green Inflation Green Green Composite Green Green
9 Auto Industry Leading Indicators Willingness to Buy May 03 May 04 Consumer Attitudes Red Yellow Unemployment Claims Red Green Workweek Red Green Stock Market Red Green Composite Red Green
10 Consumer Attitudes Average of U of M & Conference Board Index May '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
11 Payroll Job Growth During Recoveries % Change From Trough Trough Shaded Bar indicates length of 2001 recession Months Average of Previous Cycles Current Early 1990s
12 CEO Confidence Survey The Conference Board Index Future Economic Conditions Current Economic Conditions 15 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
13 Institute for Supply Management Index Index 70 Non-Manufacturing 68.4 April Manufacturing 62.4 April '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
14 Initial Unemployment Claims 4 Week Moving Average Thousands '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
15 Payroll Employment Change in Employment Level
16 Oil Prices Dollars Per Barrel Oil Shock $91 Oil Shock Real $ $37 20 Nominal 10 0 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
17 Gasoline Prices Average All Types Cents Per Gallon $2.94 $1.88 April 200 Real 150 Forecast $1.13 Nominal 0 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 Monthly Data
18 Gasoline Prices: Regional Los Angeles & Atlanta, Including Taxes Cents Per Gallon Los Angeles $ 2.23 Atlanta $ '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
19 Mandated Summer Gasolines
20 Oil Consumption & Resources Trillions of Barrels Proven Conventional th Century Consumption 0.7 Proven Unconventional 1.1 Undiscovered Conventional 1.3 Shale 2.0 Undiscovered Unconventional 2.3
21 Buying Conditions for Vehicles During Next 12 Months Index Good Bad '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 ' May
22 U.S. Market Share Car Truck 2003 YTD 44.5% 55.5% 2004 YTD 42.8% 57.2% Total SUVs Large SUVs 24.3% 5.9% 24.6% 5.8%
23 Consumer Prices All Items, Not Seasonally Adjusted % Change Yr/Yr % 6.3% -4 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 2.3% April
24 Consumer Prices: Core Inflation All Items Less Food & Energy, Seasonally Adjusted % Change Yr/Yr % % % April 0 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
25 Small Business Pricing Trends National Federation of Independent Business Net Percent 30 Price Plans Actual Price Changes -10 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04
26 U. S. Federal Funds Target Rate Percent '92 '93 '94 '95 '96
27 Cost of Financing $ 25,000 Loan for 60 Months 6% APR 7% APR $ 3,500 $ 4,000 + $ 500
28 2004 U.S. Outlook: Risk and Opportunities Theme GDP Industry CPI Key Driver Oil Interest Rates Economy Booms All cylinders firing > $30 Fed raises rates Very Strong Growth Hiring & investment return > $25 Fed raises Second half 2004 Recovery Speeds Up Stimulus pushes growth to trend $25 Fed holds steady through 2004 Weak Recovery Jobless recovery continues $20 Further cuts
29 Federal Debt Held by the Public as Percent of GDP % of GDP % 20 0 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00
30 2005 U.S. Outlook: Risk and Opportunities Theme GDP Industry CPI Key Driver Oil Interest Rates Economy Booms All cylinders firing > $35 Fed raises rates aggressively Strong Growth Strong hiring & investment > $30 Fed raises rates smoothly Tepid Growth Tax increases push growth below trend >$25 Fed raises rates slowly Economy Drifts Jobless growth returns $25 Fed holds rates steady
31 2005 Segment Winners & Losers CARS TRUCKS Compact ++ Minivan 0 Standard Mid-Size Sports Tourer ++ Luxury Mid-Size Mid-Size SUV Standard Full-Size Full-Size SUV + Standard Large Large Pickup Composite Composite ++
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