August Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption
|
|
- Ethel Lang
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 August Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption August 5, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less than 2- year yields) ahead of every recession in the past 40 years (arrows). The lag between inversion and the start of the next recession has been long: at least a year and in several instances as long as 2-3 years. On this basis, the current expansion will last well into 2018 at a minimum. Enlarge any image by clicking on it. Unemployment claims are also in a declining trend; historically, claims have started to rise at least 6 months ahead of the next recession. Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 That said, there are two watch outs that bear monitoring closely: The first is employment growth, which has been decelerating from over 2% last year to 1.5% now. It's not alarming but it is noteworthy that expansions weaken before they end, and slowing employment growth is a sign of some weakening in the current expansion. The second watch out is demand growth. Real retail sales (excluding gas) is in a decelerating trend. In June, growth was just 1.4% after having grown at more than 4% in Personal consumption accounts for about 70% of GDP so weakening retail sales has a notable impact on the economy. Here are the main macro data headlines from the past month: Employment: Monthly employment gains have averaged 180,000 during the past year, with annual growth of 1.5% yoy. Full-time employment is leading. Compensation: Compensation growth is on an improving trend and near the highest in the past 8 years - 2.5% yoy in July. Demand: Real demand growth has been 2-3%. In June, real personal consumption growth was 2.4%. Real retail sales (including gas) grew 1.2% yoy in June, after making a new ATH in May. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 Housing: Housing sales grew 9% yoy in June after making a 9-1/2 year high in March. Starts and permits are flat over the past two years due to weakness in multi-family units. Manufacturing: Core durable goods growth rose 5.6% yoy in June. The manufacturing component of industrial production grew 1.4% yoy in June. Inflation: The core inflation rate remains near (but under) the Fed's 2% target. Our key message over the past 5 years has been that (a) growth is positive but slow, in the range of ~2-3% (real), and; (b) current growth is lower than in prior periods of economic expansion and a return to 1980s or 1990s style growth does not appear likely. This is germane to equity markets in that macro growth drives corporate revenue, profit expansion and valuation levels. The saying that "the stock market is not the economy" is true on a day to day or even month to month basis, but over time these two move together. When they diverge, it is normally a function of emotion, whether measured in valuation premiums/discounts or sentiment extremes. Macro data should be better than expected in 2H17. Why? Macro data was ahead of expectations to start the current year. During the current expansion, that has led to underperformance of macro data relative to expectations into mid-year and then outperformance in the second half of the year (green shading) and 2016 had the opposite pattern: these years began with macro data outperforming expectations into mid-and then underperforming in the second half (yellow shading). Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 A valuable post on using macro data to improve trend following investment strategies can be found here. * * * Let's review the most recent data, focusing on four macro categories: labor market, end-demand, housing, and inflation. Employment and Wages The July non-farm payroll was 209,000 new employees plus 2,000 in revisions. This was fine but unexceptional: in the past 12 months, the average monthly gain in employment was 180,000. Employment growth is decelerating. Monthly NFP prints are normally volatile. Since the 1990s, NFP prints near 300,000 have been followed by ones near or under 100,000. That has been a pattern during every bull market; NFP was negative in 1993, 1995, 1996 and The low print of 50,000 this past March and 43,000 in May 2016 fit the historical pattern. This is normal, not unusual or unexpected. Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Why is there so much volatility? Leave aside the data collection, seasonal adjustment and weather issues; appreciate that a "beat" or a "miss" of 80,000 workers in a monthly NFP report is equal to just 0.05% of the US workforce. For this reason, it's better to look at the trend; in July, trend employment growth was 1.5% yoy. Until spring 2016, annual growth had been over 2%, the highest since the 1990s. Ahead of a recession, employment growth normally falls (arrows). Continued deceleration in employment growth in the coming months continues to be an important watch out. Employment has been been driven by full-time jobs, which are at a new all-time high (blue line), not part-time jobs (red line). Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 The labor force participation rate (the percentage of the population over 16 that is either working or looking for work) had been falling but has more recently stabilized. The overall trend down has little to do with the current recovery; the participation rate has been falling for more than 17 years. Participation is falling as baby boomers retire, exactly as participation started to rise in the mid-1960s as this group entered the workforce. Another driver is women, whose participation rate increased from about 30% in the 1950s to a peak of 60% in Average hourly earnings growth was 2.5% yoy in July. This is a positive trend, showing demand for more workers. Sustained acceleration in wages would be a big positive for consumption and investment that would further fuel employment. Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 Similarly, 2Q17 employment cost index shows compensation growth was 2.4% yoy. For those who doubt the accuracy of the BLS employment data, federal tax receipts have also been rising to new highs (red line), a sign of better employment and wages (from Yardeni). Page 7, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
8 Demand Regardless of which data is used, real demand has been growing at about 2-3%, equal to about 4-5% nominal. One concern is real retail sales growth: excluding gas, growth has decelerated to under 2%. Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth through 2Q17 was 2.1% yoy % was common during prior expansionary periods prior to Stripping out the changes in GDP due to inventory produces "real final sales". This is a better measure of consumption growth than total GDP. In 2Q17, this grew 2.2% yoy. A sustained break above 2.5% Page 8, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
9 would be noteworthy. The "real personal consumption expenditures" component of GDP (defined), which accounts for about 70% of GDP, grew at 2.6% yoy in 2Q17. This is approaching the 3-5% that was common in prior expansionary periods after On a monthly basis, the growth in real personal consumption expenditures was 2.4% yoy in June. Page 9, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
10 GDP measures the total expenditures in the economy. An alternative measure is GDI (gross domestic income), which measures the total income in the economy. Since every expenditure produces income, these are equivalent measurements of the economy. A growing body of research suggests that GDI might be more accurate than GDP (here). Real GDI growth in 1Q17 was 1.3% yoy. Real retail sales reached a new all-time high in May; in June, annual growth was 1.2% yoy. The range has generally been centered around 2.5% yoy for most of the past 20 years. Page 10, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
11 Retail sales in the past two years have been strongly affected by the large fall in the price of gasoline. In June, real retail sales at gasoline stations fell by 1% yoy after having fallen more than 20% yoy during Real retail sales excluding gas stations grew 1.4% in June. This is a weakening trend. The next several slides look at manufacturing. It's important to note that manufacturing accounts for less than 10% of US employment, so these measures are of lesser importance. Within manufacturing, most sectors are not contracting (more on this here). Page 11, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
12 Core durable goods orders (excluding military, so that it measures consumption, and transportation, which is highly volatile) rose 5.6% yoy (nominal) in June. March had the best annual growth rate since mid Weakness in durable goods has not been a useful predictor of broader economic weakness in the past (arrows). Industrial production (real manufacturing, mining and utility output) growth was 2.0% yoy in June. The more important manufacturing component (excluding mining and oil/gas extraction; red line) rose 1.4% yoy. This is a volatile series: manufacturing growth was lower at points in both 2013 and 2014 than it was in 2016 before rebounding strongly. Page 12, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 Weakness in total industrial production has been concentrated in the mining sector; the past two years had the worst annual fall in more than 40 years. It is not unusual for this part of industrial production to plummet outside of recessions. With the recovery in oil/gas extraction, mining rose 10% yoy in June. Housing New housing sales grew 9% yoy in June. Housing starts and permits are flat over the past two years due to weakness in multi-family units. Overall levels of construction and sales are small relative to prior bull markets, but the trend is higher. First, new single family houses sold was 610,000 in June; March sales were at the highest level in the past 9-1/2 years. Growth in June was 9% over the past year after growing 17% yoy in June Page 13, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
14 Second, housing starts are flat over the past two years. Starts grew 2% yoy in June. Building permits are also flat over the past two years (red line). Permits grew 5% in June. The weakness in starts (and permits) is in the multi-unit category. Single family housing starts (blue line) reached a new post-recession high in February and was only marginally lower in June. Page 14, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
15 Meanwhile. multi-unit housing starts (red line) was flat over the past four years; this has been a drag on overall starts. Inflation Despite steady employment, demand and housing growth, inflation remains stuck near (but under) the Fed's target of 2%. CPI (blue line) was 1.6% last month, a steep fall after being over 2% to start The more important core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy; red line) grew 1.7%, the lowest rate in 2 years (since February 2015), although still just oscillating near 2%. The Fed prefers to use personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to measure inflation; total and core PCE were 1.4% and 1.5% yoy, respectively, last month. February was the first (and only) month since 2Q 2012 that total PCE was above 2%. Page 15, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
16 Some mistrust CPI and PCE. MIT publishes an independent price index (called the billion prices index; yellow line). It has tracked both CPI (blue line) and PCE closely. Summary In summary, the major macro data so far suggest positive, but slow, growth. This is consistent with corporate sales growth. SPX sales growth in 2017 is expected to only be about 5% (nominal). With valuations now well above average, the current pace of growth is likely to be the limiting factor for equity appreciation. This is important, as the consensus expects earnings to grow about 10% in 2017 (chart from Yardeni). Page 16, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
17 If you find this post to be valuable, consider visiting a few of our sponsors who have offers that might be relevant to you. Page 17, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Hurricanes End 83-Month Employment Expansion
Hurricanes End 83-Month Employment Expansion October 6, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less than 2- year
More informationA Recession Is Not On The Way
A Recession Is Not On The Way June 2, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch June Macro Update: Unemployment Claims at a 49 Year Low Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point
More informationThe Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is The Main Risk
The Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is The Main Risk July 6, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance,
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low September 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low November 5, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationRecession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise
Recession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise December 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story is starting to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly point
More information2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000
2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000 January 4, 2019 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story has started to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly
More informationThe Flattening Yield Curve Is Not A Threat to US Equities
The Flattening Yield Curve Is Not A Threat to US Equities November 27, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: On its own, a flattening yield curve is not an imminent threat to US equities. Under
More informationFund Managers Get Bullish
Fund Managers Get Bullish November 15, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 18% so far in 2017 and yet, until this month, fund managers have held significant amounts
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary June 17, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Most of the US indices made new all-time highs this week. SPY is making 'higher highs' and 'higher lows' and is above all of
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary July 2, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: SPX has gained every month in the first half of the year, and it is up 8 months in a row for just the fifth time in 26 years.
More informationFund Managers Remain Overweight Cash and Underweight US Equities
Fund Managers Remain Overweight Cash and Underweight US Equities June 14, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 5% in the past 3 months and nearly 20% in the past year,
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary April 24, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: SPY made a new all-time high this week. The short and long term trend is higher. Despite a gain of 16% over the past 10 weeks,
More informationHow Fund Managers Are Positioned
How Fund Managers Are Positioned March 23, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Fund managers came into 2018 very bullish equities. Cash levels had fallen to the lowest level in 4 years. Allocations
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary June 6, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: US equities are up two months in a row and positive for the year. They are outperforming the rest of the world, despite ongoing
More informationMarket Month: August 2017
Market Month: August 2017 The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2017) Equities in August saw many peaks and valleys throughout the month, finally rallying at the end of the month. Strong second-quarter
More informationCurrent Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts
Order Code RL30329 Current Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts Updated May 20, 2008 Gail E. Makinen Economic Policy Consultant Government and Finance Division Current Economic Conditions and Selected
More informationSolid Sales Growth and Margins At New Highs Drive 3Q17 Results
Solid Sales Growth and Margins At New Highs Drive 3Q17 Results November 14, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: For the third quarter (3Q17), S&P earnings rose 12% yoy, sales grew 6% and profit
More informationEconomic Perspectives 3 rd Quarter Executive Summary. TRICIA NEWCOMB CIMA Associate, Senior Strategy Analyst
Economic Perspectives 3 rd Quarter 2017 Executive Summary The final estimate of Q2 GDP indicated that the economy grew at a 3.1% rate, the highest quarterly growth rate since Q1 of 2015. Consumer spending
More informationProfit Margins Expand to New Highs to Boost 2Q17 Results
Profit Margins Expand to New Highs to Boost 2Q17 Results August 7, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The headline numbers for 2Q17 financial reports are good: S&P profits are up 19% yoy; sales
More informationInvestor Opinions Have Become Extremely Uniform, And That's Not Good
Investor Opinions Have Become Extremely Uniform, And That's Not Good May 23, 2015 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Investor opinions have become extremely uniform. By some measures, they are the
More informationNovember 2014 Solid October Jobs Report Boosts Workers Incomes real Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
November 21 Executive Summary Solid October Jobs Report Boosts Workers Incomes October payroll jobs growth was a "soft" 21, jobs. Private-sector employment was up by 2, jobs, while state and local government
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
May 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary With Job Market in Good Shape,
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary April 12, 2015 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Sunday, April 12, 2015 Weekly Market Summary Summary: US markets once again look set-up to continue higher, as they have multiple times
More informationMarket Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth
More informationCalifornia Association of Joint Powers Authorities
California Association of Joint Powers Authorities Economic Update April 28, 2016 Scott Prickett, CTP EVP, Portfolio Strategist CHANDLER ASSET MANAGEMENT info@chandlerasset.com chandlerasset.com 800.317.4747
More informationThe Waiting: Wage Growth and Inflation Finally Getting in Gear?
The Waiting: Wage Growth and Inflation Finally Getting in Gear? October 10, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Key Points Hurricanes impacted job growth; but not unemployment or wages, which both
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationA Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain
A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain November 29, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices
More informationCOMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS
COMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS Comptroller Kevin Lembo today said that there are reasons for cautious optimism that the state could end Fiscal
More informationEconomic Perspectives 2 nd Quarter Executive Summary. TRICIA NEWCOMB CIMA Associate, Senior Strategy Analyst
Economic Perspectives 2 nd Quarter 2017 Executive Summary The final estimate of Q1 GDP indicated that the economy grew at a % rate. While this was an improvement from the initial estimate 0.7%, it marked
More informationValentyn Povroznyuk, Edilberto L. Segura
National real GDP grew by 2.3% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) in Q2 2015. Average real GDP growth for Q4 2011-Q1 2015 was revised downwards by 0.2% from the previously published 2.2%. US industrial output
More informationQ3 Macroeconomic Update: Rising employment, slowing investment
WWW.IBISWORLD.COM December January 2017 2014 1 Q3 Follow Macroeconomic on head on Master Update page A December 2017 : Rising employment, slowing investment By Viraj D Costa, Robert Miles, Chrystalleni
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationThe Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016
Editor: Carl Hammer The Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016 Editor: Benjamin Dousa Monday 4, 08.30 SWE: PMI manufacturing (Dec) Index SEB Cons. Prev PMI 55.0 --- 54.9 Manufacturing confidence according
More informationMarket/Index 2016 Close Prior Month As of August 31 Month Change YTD Change DJIA % 11.06%
MARKET MONTH: AUGUST 2017 The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2017) Equities in August saw many peaks and valleys throughout the month, finally rallying at the end of the month. Strong second-quarter
More information2015: FINALLY, A STRONG YEAR
2015: FINALLY, A STRONG YEAR A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication U.S. GDP GROWTH IS ACCELERATING 4% 3.5% Percent Change Annual Rate 2% 0% -2% -4% -5.4% -0.5% 1.3% 3.9% 1.7% 3.9% 2.7% 2.5% -1.5%
More informationBetter Sales And Profit Growth Are Behind Good 1Q17 Results, Not Financial Engineering
Better Sales And Profit Growth Are Behind Good 1Q17 Results, Not Financial Engineering May 5, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: S&P profits are up 22% yoy. Sales are 7.2% higher. By some measures,
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review April 2019 Dr. Gil Michael Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist Economics Department, Capital Markets Division 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page
More informationEconomic recovery dashboard
CURRENT AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2009 Economic recovery dashboard Summary of current state Market indicators Most indicators changed little over the previous month. VIX increased, closing the month at 30.69,
More informationWestern New York ECONOMIC NEWS Richard J. Wehle School of Business Canisius College
Western New York ECONOMIC NEWS Richard J. Wehle School of Business Canisius College https://www.canisius.edu/academics/programs/economics/economics-wny-economic-news Volume 22, Number 1 January 2019 Nationally,
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
October 2014 Solid U.S. Economic Data Belie Market Turmoil Executive Summary September payroll job growth was above consensus with 248,000 jobs added over the month. September private-sector employment
More informationTHE FIVE FINGER GUIDE: ECONOMIC DATA THAT PROVIDE A HEADS-UP TO A U.S. RECESSION
TD Economics Special Report www.td.com/economics THE FIVE FINGER GUIDE: ECONOMIC DATA THAT PROVIDE A HEADS-UP TO A U.S. RECESSION Recession cries for the U.S. economy reached a feverish pitch among investors
More informationMarket Insight: Turn Down the News Volume, Listen to the Market
August 9, 2018 Market Insight: Turn Down the News Volume, Listen to the Market If you just listened to the news headlines, it would be hard to find reasons to like this market. Trade Wars ; Tariff Threats
More informationEconomic Outlook and Forecast
Economic Outlook and Forecast Stefano Eusepi Research & Statistics Group January 2017 All views expressed are those of the author only and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
More informationQUARTERLY GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT. October 2014 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly
QUARTERLY GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT October 2014 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly 0 Highlights Prior year General Fund revenues were $450.3 million (2.2%)
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary October 12, 2014 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch SPX has gone 686 days without touching its 200-dma. This is the longest stretch in history. On Friday, after a 3% fall during the
More informationThe President s Report to the Board of Directors
The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth
More informationThe international environment
The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary June 6, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Weekly Market Summary Summary: SPY has moved nearly 3% higher over the past two weeks. The S&P is now within about 1% of where every
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
July 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Job Growth Picked Back Up Again
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2017
Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 January 11, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response,
More informationSPECIAL COMMENTARY NUMBER 429 Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April 16, 2012
SPECIAL COMMENTARY NUMBER 429 Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April 16, 2012 Gain in Inflation-Adjusted March Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
March 19 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Abbey Omodunbi Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Weak February Job Growth, and
More informationMarket Month: July 2017
Market Month: July 2017 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2017) The last day of July saw each of the indexes listed here post gains over their June closing values. Despite slumping tech stocks at
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter August 2018 N HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ew orders in June 2018 were up 5% over June 2017, according to our recent survey of residential
More informationTrading The "Worst 6 Months" and the Presidential Cycle
Trading The "Worst 6 Months" and the Presidential Cycle May 3, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: There are two seasonal patterns currently in play for investors: the weak "mid-term election
More informationOutlook and Market Review Fourth Quarter 2013
Outlook and Market Review Fourth Quarter 2013 Economic growth remains sluggish and inflation is not on the radar screen. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth quarter GDP growth to a 2.4% rate
More information2012 6 http://www.bochk.com 2 3 4 ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) June, 2012 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com An Analysis on the Plunge in Hong Kong s GDP Growth and Prospects
More informationIllinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report
STATE OF ILLINOIS EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR GOVERNOR S OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET SPRINGFIELD 62706 BRUCE RAUNER GOVERNOR November 15, 2018 Illinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report HANS ZIGMUND
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
August 18 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Excellent Second Quarter Growth as Labor Market Continues
More informationUS Economy Update May 2014
US Economy Update May 2014 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Annalisa Usardi Economist, US & LATAM Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo
More informationThe Outlook for the U.S. Economy March Summary View. The Current State of the Economy
The Outlook for the U.S. Economy March 2010 Summary View The Current State of the Economy 8% 6% Quarterly Change (SAAR) Chart 1. The Economic Outlook History Forecast The December 2007-2009 recession is
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationThe Province of Prince Edward Island Employment Trends and Data Poverty Reduction Action Plan Backgrounder
The Province of Prince Edward Island Employment Trends and Data Poverty Reduction Action Plan Backgrounder 5/17/2018 www.princeedwardisland.ca/poverty-reduction $000's Poverty Reduction Action Plan Backgrounder:
More informationAdvanced Market Analysis for Commercial Real Estate
Ward Center for Real Estate Studies www.ccim.com Advanced Market Analysis for Commercial Real Estate PPT Handout EXCELLENCE SUCCESS SKILL LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE STRENGTH Copyright 2012 by the CCIM Institute
More informationfile:///c:/users/cathy/appdata/local/microsoft/windows/temporary Int...
1 of 5 9/25/17, 8:57 AM A Publication of the National Association of Manufacturers September 25, 2017 As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to not raise short-term interest rates at its September 19 20
More informationEconomists Expect Big Jump In 2Q GDP - We'll See May 16, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management
Economists Expect Big Jump In 2Q GDP - We'll See May 16, 2017 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved. IN THIS ISSUE: 1. First Trust Predicts
More informationBusiness cycle investing
+5+5+5+8++15 +11 U+15 Business cycle investing White paper Business cycle investing Learn how the business cycle influences investment performance and how investors can identify potential return opportunities.
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
il 27, 2018 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist The U.S. economy expanded 2.3 percent at a seasonally-adjusted annualized
More informationMonthly Economic Indicators And Charts
Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts June Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary March 3, 2014 Janet Yellen s Employment Report John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights The market will be especially interested in the unemployment
More informationAshdon Investment Management Q ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Ashdon Investment Management Q2 2016 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY June 2016 In the preparation of this presentation, Ashdon relied on data taken from sources it believes are creditable. As such, Ashdon believes
More informationMarket Month: April 2017
Market Month: April 2017 The Markets (as of market close April 28, 2017) Equities continued their positive trend in April, spurred by favorable corporate earnings reports, proposed federal tax cuts, and
More informationBeyond Estimation Market Outlook Q4 2017
Since 1972 Beyond Estimation Market Outlook Q4 2017 Vermeulens market reports are based on actual selling prices in the Institutional Commercial Industrial construction industry. Forecasts are based on
More informationQUARTERLY GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT. October 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly
QUARTERLY GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT October 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly 0 Highlights Prior year General Fund revenues were $537.6 million (2.7%)
More informationThe Index Leading Indicators
Our Sponsors: Housing Sales Up, Wide Growth Professor Erick Eschker, Director Jonathan Ashbach, Assistant Editor Catherine Carter, Assistant Analyst While no especially dramatic records were broken in
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
May 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Slower but Still Solid Economic Growth in the First Quarter;
More informationSkyline Asset Management, L.P. Executive Summary Skyline Small Cap Value Composite December 31, 2018
Overview The composite generated a -20.3% return for the fourth quarter, compared to a -20.2% return for the Russell 2000 Index and a -18.7% return for the Russell 2000 Value Index. For all of 2018, the
More informationThe Mid-Year Economic Forecast. June 20, 2018
The Mid-Year Economic Forecast June 20, 2018 Agenda National Economy: On a Solid Footing Construction & Housing: Still Strong Risks: What Could Go Wrong? 2 National Economy On a Solid Footing 3 GDP Grew
More informationEditor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events Jul, 2017
Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events 10 16 Jul, 2017 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Upcoming rating reviews Source: Bloomberg Monday 10, 08.00 NOR: CPI (Jun) SEB Cons.
More informationMACROECONOMIC INSIGHTS
MACROECONOMIC INSIGHTS U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 13 July 2018 On the Banking System, Monetary Policy & Regulation Since the recession ended in June 2009, the growth rate for loans and leases extended by all
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationIndian Economy. Industrial output grew highest in four months in June 2015 but volatility continued
Indian Economy Industrial Production Industrial output grew highest in four months in June 2015 but volatility continued After a slowdown in May 2015, industrial production grew by 3.8% during the month
More informationInflation Education. September Spear Street, Suite 950 San Francisco, CA Phone:
Inflation Education September 2014 150 Spear Street, Suite 950 San Francisco, CA 94105 Phone: 866-627-6984 DISCLAIMER The charts in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only. Individual clients
More informationQuarterly Economics Briefing
Quarterly Economics Briefing September March 2015 Review of Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The gauges below are updated quarterly to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationNew England Economic Partnership May 2013: Massachusetts
Executive Summary and Highlights MASSACHUSETTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The Massachusetts economy is in the fourth year of the expansion that began in the summer of 2009. During this expansion, real gross state
More informationU.S. Automotive Outlook
2004 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference September 19-22, 2004 Burlington, VT U.S. Automotive Outlook David P. Teolis Senior Economist North America Global Market & Industry Analysis Presentation
More informationIn this report we discuss three important areas of the economy that have received a great deal of attention recently, namely:
March 26, 218 Executive Summary George Mokrzan, PH.D., Director of Economics In this report we discuss three important areas of the economy that have received a great deal of attention recently, namely:
More informationEditor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events Mar 2018
Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 12 18 Mar 2018 Monday 12, 08.00 SWE: Unemployment, registered (Feb) SEB Cons. Prev. Open 3.9 --- 4.0 Open, seas. adj. 3.8 --- 3.8 Total seas. adj. 7.1 ---
More informationAshdon Investment Management Q ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Ashdon Investment Management Q3 2015 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY October 2015 In the preparation of this presentation, Ashdon relied on data taken from sources it believes are creditable. As such, Ashdon believes
More informationConsolidated Investment Report
Consolidated Investment Report September 2015 As Palm Beach County s Chief Financial Officer, the Clerk & Comptroller is charged with safeguarding and investing all County funds. The Clerk s management
More informationFOR RELEASE: ONLINE: December 6, 2017, 5:00 p.m. PRINT: December 7, 2017
T Chapman University A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research FOR RELEASE: ONLINE: December 6, 2017, 5:00 p.m. PRINT: December 7, 2017 CONTACT: James Doti, President Emeritus and Donald Bren Distinguished
More informationNAHEFFA March 26, The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
NAHEFFA March 26, 219 The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. National Economy Growing Strongly Jobs grew 1.8% in 218 the fastest
More informationImplications of Fiscal Austerity for U.S. Monetary Policy
Implications of Fiscal Austerity for U.S. Monetary Policy Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Boston The Global Interdependence Center Central Banking Conference
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationBusiness cycle investing
Business cycle investing White paper Business cycle investing Learn how the business cycle influences investment performance and how investors can identify potential return opportunities. Key highlights
More information