2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000
|
|
- Hilda Long
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000 January 4, 2019 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story has started to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth, but there is a very important exception: weakness in housing is apparent. If this persists and other measures, especially employment, start to also weaken, a recession in 2019 is possible. For now, the bond market sees continued growth. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less than 2-year yields) ahead of every recession in the past 40 years (arrows). The lag between inversion and the start of the next recession has been long: at least 8 months and in several instances as long as 2-3 years. On this basis, the current expansion will likely last into mid-2019 at a minimum. Enlarge any image by clicking on it. Likewise, high yield spreads have not blown out during the current market correction, and default rates remain well below average. This part of the bond market is not signaling trouble (from JPM). Page 1, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 Similarly, real retail sales grew 2% and made a new all-time high (ATH) in November. The trend higher is strong, in comparison to the period prior to the past two recessions. Housing is the primary concern. In the past 50 years, at least 11 months has lapsed between new home sales' expansion high (arrows) and the start of the next recession. So far, the cycle high was in November 2017, 13 months ago. Page 2, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 Unemployment claims have also been in a declining trend, but this may be changing. Historically, claims have started to rise at least 7 months ahead of the next recession: claims reached a 49 year low in mid-september, but have since risen the past three months. This measurement bears watching closely in the months ahead. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) Index reached a new uptrend high in October. This index includes the indicators above plus equity prices, ISM new orders, manufacturing hours and consumer confidence. This index can fluctuate during an expansion but the final peak has been at least 7 months before the next recession in the past 50 years (from Doug Short). Page 3, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 Why does any of this matter for the stock market? Equity prices typically fall ahead of the next recession, but the macro indictors highlighted above weaken even earlier and help distinguish a 10% correction from an oncoming prolonged bear market. On balance, these indicators are not hinting at an imminent recession; new home sales is the only potential warning flag (its most recent peak was 13 months ago) but it has the longest lead time to the next recession of all the indicators. Page 4, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Here are the main macro data headlines from the past month: Employment: Monthly employment gains averaged 220,000 in the second best year since with annual growth of 1.8% yoy. Employment has been been driven by full-time jobs, which rose to a new all-time high in December. Compensation: Compensation growth is on an improving trend. Hourly wage growth was 3.2% yoy in December, while the 3Q18 employment cost index grew 3.0% yoy, the highest growth in the past 10 years. Demand: Real demand growth has been 2-3%. In November, real personal consumption growth was 2.8%. Real retail sales grew 2.0% yoy in November, making a new all-time high. 3Q18 GDP growth was 3.0%, the highest in 3 years. Housing: Macro weakness is most apparent in housing. New home sales fell 12% yoy in Page 5, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 October. Housing starts fell 4% yoy and permits were flat yoy in November. Multi-family units remain a drag on overall development. Manufacturing: Core durable goods rose 2.8% yoy in November. The manufacturing component of industrial production grew 2.2% yoy in November, to a near 10-year high. Inflation: The core inflation rate remains near the Fed's 2% target. Our key message over the past 6 years has been that (a) growth is positive but slow, in the range of ~2-3% (real), and; (b) current growth is lower than in prior periods of economic expansion and a return to 1980s or 1990s style growth does not appear likely. This is germane to equity markets in that macro growth drives corporate revenue, profit expansion and valuation levels. The simple fact is that prolonged equity bear markets almost always take place within the context of an economic decline. Since the end of World War II, there have been 10 prolonged bear markets, only 2 of which have occurred outside of an economic recession. When the economy is expanding, the historical risk of a 10% annual decline in the stock market is just 4% (from Goldman Sachs). Page 6, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 The highly misleading saying that "the stock market is not the economy" is true on a day to day or even month to month basis, but over time these two move together. When they diverge, it is normally a function of emotion, whether measured in valuation premiums/discounts or sentiment extremes. Page 7, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
8 We had expected macro data to be better than expected in 2H18, but it hasn't been. Macro data was ahead of expectations to start the current year by the greatest extent in 6 years. During the current expansion, that has led to underperformance of macro data relative to expectations into mid-year and then outperformance in the second half of the year (green arrows) and 2016 had the opposite pattern: these years began with macro data outperforming expectations into mid-year and then underperforming in the second half (red arrows). This is another watch out for A valuable post on using macro data to improve trend following investment strategies can be found here. While the macro data is fine, a possible wild card is the escalation in trade war rhetoric, which reduces global demand, raises prices and eventually leads to lower investment (from St Louis Fed). Page 8, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
9 Let's review the most recent data, focusing on four macro categories: labor market, end-demand, housing, and inflation. Employment and Wages The December non-farm payroll was 312,000 new employees plus 58,000 in net revisions for the prior two months. Employment growth had been decelerating. The average monthly gain in employment was 240,000 in 2015, 211,000 in 2016 and 190,000 in In the past 12 months, however, the monthly average has improved to 220,000 (green line). If this holds through revisions (next 2 months), 2018 will be the second best year for employment since Page 9, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
10 Monthly NFP prints are volatile. Since the 1990s, NFP prints near 300,000 (like in December) have been followed by ones near or under 100,000. That has been a pattern during every bull market; NFP was negative at times during 1993, 1995, 1996 and The low print of 34,000 in May 2016 and 14,000 in September 2017 fit the historical pattern. This is normal, not unusual or unexpected. Why is there so much volatility? Leave aside the data collection, seasonal adjustment and weather issues; appreciate that a "beat" or a "miss" of 120,000 workers in a monthly NFP report is within the 90% confidence interval (explained here). For this reason, it's better to look at the trend; in December, trend employment growth was 1.8% yoy. Until spring 2016, annual growth had been over 2%, the highest since the 1990s. Ahead of a recession, employment growth normally falls (arrows). Continued deceleration in employment growth continues to be an important watch out. Employment has been been driven by full-time jobs, which rose to a new all-time high in December (blue line), not part-time jobs (red line). Page 10, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
11 The labor force participation rate (the percentage of the population over 16 that is either working or looking for work) has stabilized over the past 5 years. The participation rate had been falling since 2001 as baby boomers retire, exactly as participation started to rise in the mid-1960s as this demographic group entered the workforce. Another driver is women, whose participation rate increased from about 30% in the 1950s to a peak of 60% in 1999, and younger adults staying in school (and thus out of the work force) longer. A better measure is the prime working age (25 to 54 year olds) labor force participation rate; it stands at 82.3%, down only slightly from its peak in 2000 at 84%, and much higher than anytime prior to the 1980s. Average hourly earnings growth was 3.2% yoy in December, the highest in 9-1/2 years. This is a Page 11, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
12 positive trend, showing demand for more workers. Sustained acceleration in wages would be a big positive for consumption and investment that would further fuel employment. Similarly, 3Q18 employment cost index shows total compensation growth was 3.0% yoy, the highest in the past 10 years. For those who doubt the accuracy of the BLS employment data, federal individual income tax receipts have also been rising to new highs (red line), a sign of better employment and wages (from Yardeni). Page 12, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
13 Demand Regardless of which data is used, real demand has been growing at about 2-3%, equal to about 4-5% nominal. Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth through 3Q18 was 3.0% yoy, the best growth rate in 3 years % was common during prior expansionary periods prior to Stripping out the changes in GDP due to inventory produces "real final sales". This is a better measure of consumption growth than total GDP. In 3Q18, this grew 2.9% yoy. A sustained break above 3% would be noteworthy. Page 13, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
14 The "real personal consumption expenditures" component of GDP (defined), which accounts for about 70% of GDP, grew 2.9% yoy in 3Q18. This is approaching the 3-5% that was common in prior expansionary periods after 1980 and prior to the great recession. On a monthly basis, the growth in real personal consumption expenditures grew 2.8% yoy in November. GDP measures the total expenditures in the economy. An alternative measure is GDI (gross domestic income), which measures the total income in the economy. Since every expenditure produces income, these are equivalent measurements of the economy. Some research suggests that GDI might be more accurate than GDP (here). Page 14, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
15 Real GDI growth in 3Q18 was 2.6% yoy. Real retail sales grew 2.0% yoy in November and made a new ATH. Sales fell yoy more than a year ahead of the last recession. Retail sales in the past three years have been strongly affected by the large fall and rebound in the price of gasoline. In November, real retail sales at gasoline stations grew by 6% yoy after having fallen more than 20% yoy during Real retail sales excluding gas stations grew 1.6% in November. Page 15, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
16 This expansionary cycle is not like others in the past 50 years. Households' savings rate typically falls as the expansion progresses; this time, savings has risen and remains at an elevated level. The next several slides look at manufacturing. It's important to note that manufacturing accounts for less than 10% of US employment, so these measures are of lesser importance. Page 16, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
17 Core durable goods orders (excluding military, so that it measures consumption, and transportation, which is highly volatile) rose 2.8% yoy (nominal) in November. Weakness in durable goods has not been a useful predictor of broader economic weakness in the past (arrows). Industrial production (real manufacturing, mining and utility output) growth was 3.9% yoy in November; it's at an ATH. The more important manufacturing component (excluding mining and oil/gas extraction; red line) rose 2.2% yoy; it's near a 10 year high. Industrial production is a volatile series, with negative annual growth during parts of 2014 and Importantly, 74% of industrial production groups are expanding. A drop below 40% will imply widespread weakness that typically precedes a recession (from Tim Duy). Page 17, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
18 Weakness in total industrial production in was concentrated in the mining sector, with the worst annual fall in more than 40 years. It is not unusual for this part of industrial production to plummet outside of recessions. With the recovery in oil/gas extraction, mining rose 13% yoy in September. Companies are often wrongly accused of underinvesting in lieu of greater share repurchases (buybacks). But capacity utilization is still under 80%, so there is plenty of room for production to expand within existing capacity. Page 18, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
19 Housing Macro weakness is most apparent in housing. New housing sales fell 12% yoy in October after reaching their highest level in 10 years in November 2017 (due to the shutdown, November sales data is not available). Housing starts fell 4% and permits were flat yoy in November, with weakness in multifamily units the most pronounced. Overall levels of construction and sales are small relative to prior bull markets. First, new single family houses sold was 544,000 in October; sales in November 2017 were the highest of the past 10 years. Growth in October was -12% over the past year after rising +13% yoy in October YTD, new home sales are tracking +3% growth over Second, housing starts fell 4% yoy in November. Starts in January were at the highest level of the past 11 years. The cycle high print has typically been well over a year before the next recession (arrows). Page 19, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
20 Building permits were at the highest level in 10 years in March (red line) but rose 0% yoy in November after rising 6% yoy in November Single family housing starts (blue line) reached a new post-recession high in November 2017 but were 13% lower in November. Meanwhile. multi-unit housing starts (red line) has been flat over the past four years; this has been a drag on overall starts. Inflation Page 20, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
21 Despite steady employment, demand and housing growth, core inflation remains near the Fed's target of 2%. CPI (blue line) was 2.2% last month. The more important core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy; red line) also grew 2.2%. The Fed prefers to use personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to measure inflation; total and core PCE were 1.8% and 1.9% yoy, respectively, last month. Some mistrust CPI and PCE. MIT publishes an independent price index (called the billion prices index; yellow line). It has tracked both CPI (blue line) and PCE closely. Page 21, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
22 Summary On balance, the major macro data so far suggest continued positive, but modest, growth. This is consistent with corporate sales growth. SPX sales growth in 2019 is expected to be about 5% (nominal). With the rise in earnings and the drop in share price, valuations are now below their 25 year average. The consensus expects earnings to grow about 8% in Even if this falls under 5%, equity appreciation next year can be driven by both corporate growth as well as valuation expansion (chart from JPM). Page 22, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
23 The Fat Pitch Page 23, 2019 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Recession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise
Recession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise December 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story is starting to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly point
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low November 5, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low September 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationThe Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is The Main Risk
The Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is The Main Risk July 6, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance,
More informationA Recession Is Not On The Way
A Recession Is Not On The Way June 2, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch June Macro Update: Unemployment Claims at a 49 Year Low Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point
More informationAugust Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption
August Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption August 5, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields
More informationHurricanes End 83-Month Employment Expansion
Hurricanes End 83-Month Employment Expansion October 6, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields less than 2- year
More informationThe Flattening Yield Curve Is Not A Threat to US Equities
The Flattening Yield Curve Is Not A Threat to US Equities November 27, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: On its own, a flattening yield curve is not an imminent threat to US equities. Under
More informationFund Managers Remain Overweight Cash and Underweight US Equities
Fund Managers Remain Overweight Cash and Underweight US Equities June 14, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 5% in the past 3 months and nearly 20% in the past year,
More informationFund Managers Get Bullish
Fund Managers Get Bullish November 15, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 18% so far in 2017 and yet, until this month, fund managers have held significant amounts
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary July 2, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: SPX has gained every month in the first half of the year, and it is up 8 months in a row for just the fifth time in 26 years.
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary June 17, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Most of the US indices made new all-time highs this week. SPY is making 'higher highs' and 'higher lows' and is above all of
More informationProfit Margins Expand to New Highs to Boost 2Q17 Results
Profit Margins Expand to New Highs to Boost 2Q17 Results August 7, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The headline numbers for 2Q17 financial reports are good: S&P profits are up 19% yoy; sales
More informationSolid Sales Growth and Margins At New Highs Drive 3Q17 Results
Solid Sales Growth and Margins At New Highs Drive 3Q17 Results November 14, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: For the third quarter (3Q17), S&P earnings rose 12% yoy, sales grew 6% and profit
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary June 6, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: US equities are up two months in a row and positive for the year. They are outperforming the rest of the world, despite ongoing
More informationBetter Sales And Profit Growth Are Behind Good 1Q17 Results, Not Financial Engineering
Better Sales And Profit Growth Are Behind Good 1Q17 Results, Not Financial Engineering May 5, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: S&P profits are up 22% yoy. Sales are 7.2% higher. By some measures,
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary April 24, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: SPY made a new all-time high this week. The short and long term trend is higher. Despite a gain of 16% over the past 10 weeks,
More informationCalifornia Association of Joint Powers Authorities
California Association of Joint Powers Authorities Economic Update April 28, 2016 Scott Prickett, CTP EVP, Portfolio Strategist CHANDLER ASSET MANAGEMENT info@chandlerasset.com chandlerasset.com 800.317.4747
More informationEconomic Perspectives 3 rd Quarter Executive Summary. TRICIA NEWCOMB CIMA Associate, Senior Strategy Analyst
Economic Perspectives 3 rd Quarter 2017 Executive Summary The final estimate of Q2 GDP indicated that the economy grew at a 3.1% rate, the highest quarterly growth rate since Q1 of 2015. Consumer spending
More informationHow Fund Managers Are Positioned
How Fund Managers Are Positioned March 23, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Fund managers came into 2018 very bullish equities. Cash levels had fallen to the lowest level in 4 years. Allocations
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2017
Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 January 11, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response,
More informationFourth Quarter Market Outlook. Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Outlook Jason Bulinski, CFA Donald A. Powell, CFA Joseph Styrna, CFA Economic Outlook Growth: Strong 2018, But Expecting Slowdown in 2019 Growth & Jobs 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary April 12, 2015 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Sunday, April 12, 2015 Weekly Market Summary Summary: US markets once again look set-up to continue higher, as they have multiple times
More informationCOMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS
COMPTROLLER LEMBO REPORTS EARLY INDICATIONS THAT STATE COULD END FISCAL YEAR 2019 IN SURPLUS Comptroller Kevin Lembo today said that there are reasons for cautious optimism that the state could end Fiscal
More informationfile:///c:/users/cathy/appdata/local/microsoft/windows/temporary Int...
1 of 5 9/25/17, 8:57 AM A Publication of the National Association of Manufacturers September 25, 2017 As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to not raise short-term interest rates at its September 19 20
More informationMarket Insight: Turn Down the News Volume, Listen to the Market
August 9, 2018 Market Insight: Turn Down the News Volume, Listen to the Market If you just listened to the news headlines, it would be hard to find reasons to like this market. Trade Wars ; Tariff Threats
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationTrading The "Worst 6 Months" and the Presidential Cycle
Trading The "Worst 6 Months" and the Presidential Cycle May 3, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: There are two seasonal patterns currently in play for investors: the weak "mid-term election
More informationCurrent Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts
Order Code RL30329 Current Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts Updated May 20, 2008 Gail E. Makinen Economic Policy Consultant Government and Finance Division Current Economic Conditions and Selected
More informationEconomic recovery dashboard
CURRENT AS OF OCTOBER 31, 2009 Economic recovery dashboard Summary of current state Market indicators Most indicators changed little over the previous month. VIX increased, closing the month at 30.69,
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
July 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Job Growth Picked Back Up Again
More informationInvestor Opinions Have Become Extremely Uniform, And That's Not Good
Investor Opinions Have Become Extremely Uniform, And That's Not Good May 23, 2015 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Investor opinions have become extremely uniform. By some measures, they are the
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary October 12, 2014 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch SPX has gone 686 days without touching its 200-dma. This is the longest stretch in history. On Friday, after a 3% fall during the
More informationAdvanced Market Analysis for Commercial Real Estate
Ward Center for Real Estate Studies www.ccim.com Advanced Market Analysis for Commercial Real Estate PPT Handout EXCELLENCE SUCCESS SKILL LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE STRENGTH Copyright 2012 by the CCIM Institute
More informationMonthly Economic Indicators And Charts
Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts June Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
March 19 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Abbey Omodunbi Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Weak February Job Growth, and
More informationMarket Month: August 2017
Market Month: August 2017 The Markets (as of market close August 31, 2017) Equities in August saw many peaks and valleys throughout the month, finally rallying at the end of the month. Strong second-quarter
More informationFive Forecasters: Few Warning Signs
KEY TAKEAWAYS Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs September 28, 2016 by Burt White of LPL Financial Our Five Forecasters are collectively sending mostly mid-cycle signals. The Leading Economic Index, yield
More informationSPECIAL COMMENTARY NUMBER 429 Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April 16, 2012
SPECIAL COMMENTARY NUMBER 429 Consumer Liquidity Update, March Retail Sales April 16, 2012 Gain in Inflation-Adjusted March Retail Sales Was Not Statistically Significant First-Quarter 2012 Consumer Income
More informationThe Boomers Have Already Been Overtaken By the Millennials
The Boomers Have Already Been Overtaken By the Millennials November 14, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Demographics is a key driver of economic growth. Most people focus on the aging of
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
May 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary With Job Market in Good Shape,
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter August 2018 N HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ew orders in June 2018 were up 5% over June 2017, according to our recent survey of residential
More informationEconomic Outlook and Forecast
Economic Outlook and Forecast Stefano Eusepi Research & Statistics Group January 2017 All views expressed are those of the author only and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
More informationThe Outlook for the U.S. Economy March Summary View. The Current State of the Economy
The Outlook for the U.S. Economy March 2010 Summary View The Current State of the Economy 8% 6% Quarterly Change (SAAR) Chart 1. The Economic Outlook History Forecast The December 2007-2009 recession is
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
October 2014 Solid U.S. Economic Data Belie Market Turmoil Executive Summary September payroll job growth was above consensus with 248,000 jobs added over the month. September private-sector employment
More informationBeyond Estimation Market Outlook Q4 2017
Since 1972 Beyond Estimation Market Outlook Q4 2017 Vermeulens market reports are based on actual selling prices in the Institutional Commercial Industrial construction industry. Forecasts are based on
More informationNovember 2014 Solid October Jobs Report Boosts Workers Incomes real Baseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
November 21 Executive Summary Solid October Jobs Report Boosts Workers Incomes October payroll jobs growth was a "soft" 21, jobs. Private-sector employment was up by 2, jobs, while state and local government
More informationAn End Has a Start: Keeping an Eye on Recession Indicators
Key Points An End Has a Start: Keeping an Eye on Recession Indicators October 8, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Second-longest expansion likely to make it to longest; but we re starting to see
More informationThe international environment
The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review April 2019 Dr. Gil Michael Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist Economics Department, Capital Markets Division 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page
More informationMarket Watch. July Review Global economic outlook. Australia
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. Global economic outlook Australia Available data for the June quarter is consistent with a moderation in GDP growth
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary June 6, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Weekly Market Summary Summary: SPY has moved nearly 3% higher over the past two weeks. The S&P is now within about 1% of where every
More informationQUARTERLY GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT. October 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly
QUARTERLY GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT October 2013 Barry Boardman, Ph.D. Fiscal Research Division North Carolina General Assembly 0 Highlights Prior year General Fund revenues were $537.6 million (2.7%)
More informationThe Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016
Editor: Carl Hammer The Week Ahead Key Events 4 10 Jan, 2016 Editor: Benjamin Dousa Monday 4, 08.30 SWE: PMI manufacturing (Dec) Index SEB Cons. Prev PMI 55.0 --- 54.9 Manufacturing confidence according
More informationA Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain
A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain November 29, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices
More informationNavigating the New Environment
Navigating the New Environment May 12, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stock indexes have rebounded from their correction lows, although remain
More informationThe Province of Prince Edward Island Employment Trends and Data Poverty Reduction Action Plan Backgrounder
The Province of Prince Edward Island Employment Trends and Data Poverty Reduction Action Plan Backgrounder 5/17/2018 www.princeedwardisland.ca/poverty-reduction $000's Poverty Reduction Action Plan Backgrounder:
More informationAdvanced Market Analysis for Commercial Real Estate
Ward Center for Real Estate Studies www.ccim.com Advanced Market Analysis for Commercial Real Estate PPT Handout EXCELLENCE SUCCESS SKILL LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE STRENGTH Copyright 2012 by the CCIM Institute
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The gauges below are updated quarterly to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationQ3 Macroeconomic Update: Rising employment, slowing investment
WWW.IBISWORLD.COM December January 2017 2014 1 Q3 Follow Macroeconomic on head on Master Update page A December 2017 : Rising employment, slowing investment By Viraj D Costa, Robert Miles, Chrystalleni
More information- Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931.
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Newsletter Summary. - Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931. - The US economy is moderating but is
More informationFOR RELEASE: ONLINE: December 6, 2017, 5:00 p.m. PRINT: December 7, 2017
T Chapman University A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research FOR RELEASE: ONLINE: December 6, 2017, 5:00 p.m. PRINT: December 7, 2017 CONTACT: James Doti, President Emeritus and Donald Bren Distinguished
More informationAntonio Fazio: Overview of global economic and financial developments in first half 2004
Antonio Fazio: Overview of global economic and financial developments in first half 2004 Address by Mr Antonio Fazio, Governor of the Bank of Italy, to the ACRI (Association of Italian Savings Banks),
More informationUS Economic Outlook Improving
Government Bonds Have Never Looked Less Attractive OUTLOOK Executive Summary Kenneth J. Taubes Chief Investment Officer, US Economic Outlook US GDP growth may lead growth among developed nations, at approximately
More informationInvestment Newsletter
INVESTMENT NEWSLETTER January 2017 Investment Newsletter CLIENT INVESTMENT UPDATE NEWSLETTER January 2017 THE FED, YIELDS, AND EXPECTED RETURNS Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors December 2016 In liquid
More informationThe Mid-Year Economic Forecast. June 20, 2018
The Mid-Year Economic Forecast June 20, 2018 Agenda National Economy: On a Solid Footing Construction & Housing: Still Strong Risks: What Could Go Wrong? 2 National Economy On a Solid Footing 3 GDP Grew
More informationAshdon Investment Management Q ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
Ashdon Investment Management Q2 2016 ECONOMIC COMMENTARY June 2016 In the preparation of this presentation, Ashdon relied on data taken from sources it believes are creditable. As such, Ashdon believes
More informationThe Labor Force Participation Puzzle
The Labor Force Participation Puzzle May 23, 2013 by David Kelly of J.P. Morgan Funds Slow growth and mediocre job creation have been common themes used to describe the U.S. economy in recent years, as
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationMonthly Market Risk Update: March 2019
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2019 March 14, 2019 by Brad McMillan of Commonwealth Financial Network Market risks come in three flavors: recession risk, economic shock risk, and risks within the market
More information2012 6 http://www.bochk.com 2 3 4 ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) June, 2012 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com An Analysis on the Plunge in Hong Kong s GDP Growth and Prospects
More information2015: FINALLY, A STRONG YEAR
2015: FINALLY, A STRONG YEAR A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication U.S. GDP GROWTH IS ACCELERATING 4% 3.5% Percent Change Annual Rate 2% 0% -2% -4% -5.4% -0.5% 1.3% 3.9% 1.7% 3.9% 2.7% 2.5% -1.5%
More informationCIO Newsletter Overlapping Cycles
CIO Newsletter Overlapping Cycles Q3 2018 Current Environment The CIO Newsletter warned a year ago that late cycle is a challenge for investors: We fear the next downturn, but we know there can be a steep
More informationThe Waiting: Wage Growth and Inflation Finally Getting in Gear?
The Waiting: Wage Growth and Inflation Finally Getting in Gear? October 10, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Key Points Hurricanes impacted job growth; but not unemployment or wages, which both
More informationHas US Debt Reached A Tipping Point?
Has US Debt Reached A Tipping Point? October 28, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Investors have become very concerned about excessive debt in the US. The worry is that current leverage has
More informationTHE FIVE FINGER GUIDE: ECONOMIC DATA THAT PROVIDE A HEADS-UP TO A U.S. RECESSION
TD Economics Special Report www.td.com/economics THE FIVE FINGER GUIDE: ECONOMIC DATA THAT PROVIDE A HEADS-UP TO A U.S. RECESSION Recession cries for the U.S. economy reached a feverish pitch among investors
More informationOutlook and Market Review Third Quarter 2018
Outlook and Market Review Third Quarter The U. S. economy grew at a 3.5% rate in the third quarter of following a 4.2% growth rate in the prior quarter, according to the revision by the Bureau of Economic
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationEditor: Felix Ewert. The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017
Editor: Felix Ewert The Week Ahead Key Events 2 8 Oct, 2017 Monday 2, 08.30 SWE: PMI Manufacturing (Sep) Index SEB Cons. Prev. PMI 60.5 -- 54.7 Manufacturing PMI showed an unexpectedly large fall in August.
More informationThe Stock Market's Final Four
The Stock Market's Final Four April 2, 2019 by John Lynch of LPL Financial The NCAA Final Four is set. On the men s side, Auburn, Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Virginia are headed to Minneapolis to determine
More informationSEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS
SEMA INDUSTRY INDICATORS Economic data strengthened over the last month. The employment report led the way, but across the board incoming economic data was firm, setting up what could be an extremely strong
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist. March 13, 2018
Global Economics Monthly Review March 13, 2018 Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please note that we will not publish the monthly review
More informationAppendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos
Presentation Materials (PDF) Pages 192 to 203 of the Transcript Appendix 1: Materials used by Mr. Kos Page 1 Top panel Title: Current U.S. 3-Month Deposit Rates and Rates Implied by Traded Forward Rate
More informationInvestment opportunities in the late-expansion stage of the business cycle
Late-expansion investing White paper Investment opportunities in the late-expansion stage of the business cycle Key highlights Economic expansions do not follow a timetable; they typically come to an end
More informationAdditional Slack in the Economy: The Poor Recovery in Labor Force Participation During This Business Cycle
No. 5 Additional Slack in the Economy: The Poor Recovery in Labor Force Participation During This Business Cycle Katharine Bradbury This public policy brief examines labor force participation rates in
More informationMarket Month: July 2017
Market Month: July 2017 The Markets (as of market close July 31, 2017) The last day of July saw each of the indexes listed here post gains over their June closing values. Despite slumping tech stocks at
More informationEconomic Perspectives 2 nd Quarter Executive Summary. TRICIA NEWCOMB CIMA Associate, Senior Strategy Analyst
Economic Perspectives 2 nd Quarter 2017 Executive Summary The final estimate of Q1 GDP indicated that the economy grew at a % rate. While this was an improvement from the initial estimate 0.7%, it marked
More informationDiversifying growth is beneficial
Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 4, 2018 Resilient U.S. Economy Continues Its Solid Growth Key takeaways» The U.S. economy continues
More informationGrowing for nearly a decade. 114 months and counting, through December Will become longest Post-War expansion if it lasts through July
Economic Update Closing in on Expansion Record Byron Gangnes Professor of Economics Senior Research Fellow, UHERO University of Hawaii at Manoa VLI February 219 Hawaii Island Growing for nearly a decade
More informationFirst Quarter 2016 Quarterly narrative REGIONAL SUMMARIES Fort Smith region Northwest Arkansas Central Arkansas Jonesboro
First Quarter 2016 Quarterly narrative An independent economic analysis of four Arkansas metro areas: Central Arkansas Northwest Arkansas The Fort Smith region Jonesboro metro REGIONAL SUMMARIES Fort Smith
More informationInvestment Review and Outlook First Quarter 2019
Investment Review and Outlook First Quarter 2019 April 15, 2019 5 minute read Markets Rebound Strongly in First Quarter, but the Economy is Slowing An accommodative Fed acted to boost the financial markets
More informationSmith Leonard PLLC Kenneth D. Smith, CPA Mark S. Laferriere, CPA
FURNITURE INSIGHTS Smith Leonard PLLC s Industry Newsletter October 2018 HIGHLIGHTS - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A ccording to our latest survey of residential furniture manufacturers and distributors, new orders
More informationGeneral Economic Outlook Recession! Will it be Short and Shallow?
General Economic Outlook Recession! Will it be Short and Shallow? Larry DeBoer January 2002 We re in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the quasiofficial arbiter of business
More informationGENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT. March 18, 2008
GENERAL FUND REVENUE REPORT March 18, 2008 Highlights February revenues came in on target (after accounting for $19 million in one-time corporate refunds), keeping total revenues $125 million ahead of
More informationMonetary Policy as the Economy Approaches the Fed s Dual Mandate
EMBARGOED UNTIL Wednesday, February 15, 2017 at 1:10 P.M., U.S. Eastern Time OR UPON DELIVERY Monetary Policy as the Economy Approaches the Fed s Dual Mandate Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive
More informationCash Management Portfolios
September 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager Commentary Cash Management Portfolios Chief Investment Officer Jim Palmer What market conditions had a direct impact on the bond market this quarter? Positive economic
More informationShort-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016
Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the
More information