The Economic and Fiscal Benefits of Development in the Jefferson Parkway Area

Transcription

1 The Ecnmic and Fiscal Benefits f Develpment in the Jeffersn Parkway Area Octber 2017 Prepared fr: Prepared By:

2 Develpment Research Partners specializes in ecnmic research and analysis fr lcal and state gvernment and private sectr businesses. Funded in 1994, Develpment Research Partners cmbines extensive experience in real estate ecnmics and ecnmic develpment t prvide clients with insightful and strategic cnsulting services in fur areas f expertise: Ecnmic and Demgraphic Research Research in supprt f business and cmmunity activities, ranging frm cmmunity prfiles t evaluating and frecasting ecnmic and market cnditins. Industry Studies Specialized research prjects including industry cluster research, industry trends analysis, and strategic cmpetitive analysis. Fiscal and Ecnmic Impact Analysis Cmprehensive custm analysis and analytical tls t evaluate and frecast site-specific real estate and business activities and gvernment cst and benefit impacts. Real Estate and Public Finance Ecnmics Analysis and strategy fr infill redevelpment, adaptive reuses, and prperty develpment including market and feasibility studies, public investment analysis, and public-private partnering pprtunities. Patricia Silverstein, President & Chief Ecnmist David Hansen, Senir Ecnmist West Belleview Avenue, Suite 100 Littletn, Clrad

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... i I. INTRODUCTION... 1 Ecnmic and Fiscal Impact Analysis Defined... 2 Methdlgy... 2 Develpment Descriptins... 4 Reprt Organizatin... 4 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED... 5 Cnstructin... 5 Business Operatins... 7 Emplyee Spending Resident Spending Ttal Net Ecnmic and Fiscal Benefits III. STATUS QUO INFRASTRUCTURE Cnstructin Business Operatins Emplyee Spending Resident Spending Ttal Net Ecnmic and Fiscal Benefits IV. DEVELOPMENT COMPARISON V. OTHER BENEFITS VI. REFERENCES Abut the Authrs Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Jeffersn Parkway is the last 10-mile segment f radway needed t cmplete the beltway encmpassing the Denver metrplitan area, currently cnsisting f E-470, C-470, and the Nrthwest Parkway. Cmpletin f the beltway is expected t influence residential and nnresidential develpment alng the Jeffersn Parkway as reginal access imprves. While it is expected that develpment will eventually ccur with r withut the cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway, the parkway will impact develpment patterns, especially related t the timing and types f uses alng the crridr. While highway infrastructure and the cmpletin f the beltway will likely have far-reaching transprtatin and ecnmic benefits thrughut the Denver metrplitan area, estimating the benefits thrughut the regin is beynd the scpe f this study. Instead, this study estimates the ecnmic benefits in Jeffersn Cunty f develpment with and withut cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway ver a 20-year perid frm 2018 t Further, the reprt estimates the net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty nly; any gvernmental csts and revenues t the regin, state, schl district, r ther lcal gvernments and special districts are nt included. There are mre than 12,000 acres f pen space and the Rcky Flats Natinal Wildlife Refuge that cannt be develped in the vicinity f the Jeffersn Parkway crridr. In additin, ther areas brdering the parkway crridr are already built ut, are undevelpable, r current wnership has n plans t develp the prperties within the study timeframe. As a result, the develpable area cnsidered in this study ttals abut 2,250 acres at three prperties: 1) the Verve Innvatin Park and Rcky Muntain Metrplitan Airprt site, 2) Candelas, and 3) a Jeffersn Cunty-wned parcel lcated suthwest f Highway 93 and 56th Avenue. Impacts f develpment utside f these areas are nt included. Benefits Summary Develpment and Net Benefits Summary The ecnmic and fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty f the Jeffersn Parkway are estimated as the difference between Build Develpment Summary in 2037 (Year 20): N Build Difference Percent Change the benefits with the radway cmpared with the status qu, r n build scenari. Nnresidential Square Feet Ttal Emplyment 7,592,500 19,530 6,543,400 16,330 1,049,100 3, % 19.6% Ttal Payrll ($millins) $1,117.6 $941.0 $ % The ecnmic and fiscal benefits are Husing Units 4,179 4, % calculated within the framewrk f fur Number f Residents 9,803 9, % categries f impacts and activities, cnsisting f ne-time cnstructin Ttal Impacts ver 20 Years ( , $millins): spending, business peratins, emplyee Ttal Ecnmic & Fiscal Benefits $8,675.2 $7,429.5 $1, % spending, and resident spending. This Ttal Gvernment Revenues $373.7 $325.6 $ % analysis reveals that the net ecnmic Ttal Gvernment Csts $236.1 $213.8 $ % and fiscal benefits in Jeffersn Cunty are 17 percent higher frm 2018 t 2037 with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Net Ecnmic & Fiscal Benefits Net Fiscal Benefits $8,439.2 $137.6 $7,215.7 $111.8 $1,223.5 $ % 23.1% Parkway cmpared with the status qu, representing an increase f $1.2 billin. The net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty will increase by 23 percent with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway, representing a $25.8 millin increase. The difference in the ecnmic and fiscal benefits f the tw scenaris cmes frm the shift t mre nnresidential develpment if the radway is cnstructed. Withut the radway, abut 6.5 millin square feet f nnresidential space is likely t exist in the crridr by If the Jeffersn Parkway is cnstructed, nnresidential develpment is prjected t increase by 16 percent t 7.6 millin square feet, leading t higher emplyment and greater business and resident spending pprtunities. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity Page i

5 I. INTRODUCTION The Jeffersn Parkway is the last 10-mile segment f radway needed t cmplete the beltway encmpassing Metr Denver, 1 currently cnsisting f E-470 (tll rad, 47 miles, cmpleted 2003), C-470 (26 miles, cmpleted 1990), and the Nrthwest Parkway (tll rad, 11 miles, cmpleted 2003). After years f negtiatins with state and lcal authrities, and final acquisitins f rights f way, permits have been filed with the Clrad Department f Transprtatin that will enable the Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity (JPPHA) t plan, design, finance, and cnstruct the parkway. Current plans frm the JPPHA prject parkway cmpletin by the end f Transprtatin and infrastructure prjects have significant ecnmic impacts in lcal and reginal cmmunities. In additin t the temprary impacts f cnstructing a radway, businesses and residents respnd t the prject thrugh changes in develpment plans and lcatin decisins. Infrastructure can imprve the feasibility f varius types f prjects, imprve reginal access, and enable different uses. The purpse f this study is t highlight the imprtance f the Jeffersn Parkway t the existing cmmunity and ptential new businesses and residents. Cmpletin f the beltway is expected t influence develpment alng the Jeffersn Parkway as reginal access imprves. While it is expected that develpment will eventually ccur with r withut the cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway, the parkway will impact develpment patterns, especially related t the timing and types f uses alng the crridr. This study estimates the ecnmic and fiscal benefits in Jeffersn Cunty f develpment with and withut cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway ver a 20-year perid frm 2018 t Metr Denver is a seven-cunty area cnsisting f Adams, Arapahe, Bulder, Brmfield, Denver, Duglas, and Jeffersn cunties. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 1 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

6 I. INTRODUCTION ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS DEFINED Ecnmic impact analysis is the analytical apprach used t assess the measurable direct and indirect benefits resulting frm a prject ver a specific time perid fr a specific gegraphic area. Only thse benefits that can be measured r quantified are included. Intangible benefits, such as enhancement f cmmunity character r diversificatin f the jb base, are nt included. The ecnmic benefits are calculated within the framewrk f fur categries f impacts and activities, including ne-time cnstructin spending, business peratins, emplyee spending, and resident spending. This study fcuses n the Jeffersn Parkwayʼs influence n the direct ecnmic benefits f develpment nly; it des nt include any indirect benefits that wuld be calculated thrugh an ecnmic multipliers analysis. Fiscal impact analysis is used t assess the direct public revenues and public csts resulting frm a prject ver a specific time perid. A prject may generate a brad array f public revenues ranging frm sales and use tax, prperty tax, franchise fees, licenses and permits, and ther charges fr services. In turn, the lcal gvernment prvides a variety f public services such as plice prtectin, public wrks, cmmunity scial and recreatinal prgrams, and cmmunity develpment services, t name a few. This reprt estimates the net fiscal impacts t Jeffersn Cunty; any fiscal benefits t the regin, state, schl district, r ther lcal gvernments and special districts are nt included. METHODOLOGY Gegraphic Selectin This analysis estimates the ecnmic and fiscal impacts f ptential develpment alng the Jeffersn Parkway in Jeffersn Cunty. While highway infrastructure and the cmpletin f the beltway will likely have far-reaching benefits thrughut the Metr Denver regin, estimating these benefits is beynd the scpe f this study. Additinally, while ecnmic benefits such as emplyment and business spending may have reginal impacts, fiscal impacts are narrwer in scpe and are nly applicable t the cunty. The ecnmic and fiscal impacts estimated frm this study shuld specify the particular gegraphy when reprted. Prject Parameters and Study Variables The prject benefits in this study were calculated within the framewrk f the SiteStats ecnmic and fiscal impact mdel, a prprietary ecnmic mdeling system develpment by Develpment Research Partners. In additin, develpers alng the future parkway prvided land use plans and ptential develpment guidance that was used t estimate the cnstructin, peratins, emplyee, and resident spending benefits. It shuld be nted that changes in land use, cnstructin timelines, ecnmic cnditins, parkway alignment, r ther variables that factr int the cnstructin and business peratins f the prpsed develpments may change the impacts reprted in this analysis. The parameters used in this analysis were carefully cnsidered and selected t accurately reprt and avid verstating ptential ecnmic and fiscal impacts. The ecnmic and fiscal impacts estimated in this reprt are dependent n the prject parameters and are nt guaranteed. Develpment Research Partners estimated the ecnmic and fiscal impacts described in this reprt based n primary data and estimates prvided by lcal develpers and when necessary, data frm a variety f secndary surces including the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau f Labr Statistics, Jeffersn Cunty, and the state f Clrad. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 2 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

7 I. INTRODUCTION This study des nt endrse a specific Jeffersn Parkway alternative, but acknwledges that cmpletin f the beltway will result in varying develpment patterns. Specific alignments, access pints, and tll structures may influence certain cmmercial and residential sites. This study des nt attempt t cnsider individual, micr impacts frm the cmpletin f the parkway but analyzes the macr-level impacts n develpment in the crridr with and withut parkway cmpletin. Further, the ecnmic and fiscal benefits f the actual radway cnstructin are nt included. There are mre than 12,000 acres f pen space and the Rcky Flats Natinal Wildlife Refuge that cannt be develped in the vicinity f the Jeffersn Parkway crridr. This leaves fur key prperties ttaling ver 3,400 acres that represent the majrity f the develpable land in the parkway area. Impacts f develpment utside f these prperties was nt included. The prperties are: 1) the Verve Innvatin Park and Rcky Muntain Metrplitan Airprt site, 2) Candelas, 3) a Jeffersn Cunty-wned parcel lcated n Highway 93, nrth f Glden, and (4) Keller Farm. Hwever, it was determined that Keller Farm is a lng-term plan prjected t be develped beynd the 20-year study time frame. Therefre, there is n ecnmic cntributin frm the Keller Farm develpment t the study. As a result, the develpable area cnsidered in this study ttals abut 2,250 acres. The emphasis n these prperties was based n the findings f the Induced Grwth Expert Panel - a grup f cunty and municipal planners, representatives, and private experts whse findings were included in the Nrthwest Crridr Envirnmental Impact Statement in The panel cncluded that cnstructin f the radway wuld nt significantly influence future ppulatin and emplyment levels in much f the crridr area. Much f the area was already built ut, designated as pen space, undevelpable, r was t remte frm the crridr. As a result, any impacts f radway cmpletin n develpment patterns wuld likely ccur at the prperties cited abve. A number f general assumptins are included in this analysis and are described belw: The build scenari assumes the parkway is cmpleted in 2022, cnsistent with current plans frm the JPPHA. The study analyzes the cnstructin, business peratins, emplyee, and resident spending impacts frm 2018 t 2037, a 20-year perid. The ecnmic and fiscal impacts are extraplated ver a 20-year build-ut perid, althugh actual develpment may ccur beynd the 20-year perid. The analysis is nt intended t simulate any specific year f develpment. Rather, the analysis is intended t prvide a reasnable estimatin f develpment patterns ver a 20-year perid. Develpment generally ccurs equally thrughut the 20-year perid. Fr instance, if 200,000 square feet f ffice develpment is expected ver 20 years, the analysis is based n 10,000 square feet being built each year. The develpment plans used in the analysis are believed t be cnsistent with lng-range planning dcuments fr the area. This study is nt a market feasibility study. There has been n attempt t analyze the areaʼs ability t supprt the level f develpment assumed in the study. Rather, it is assumed that the market will successfully supprt the level f develpment cmpleted within the 20-year timeframe based n the prject parameters. Sme numbers in the study may nt add exactly due t runding. In general, numbers reprted in the text f the reprt are runded t the nearest hundred millin if ver $1 billin and t the nearest hundred thusand if mre than $1 millin. This analysis cnsiders the ecnmic and fiscal impact in 2017 dllars. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 3 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

8 I. INTRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT DESCRIPTIONS The Verve Innvatin Park and Rcky Muntain Metrplitan Airprt The Verve Innvatin Park is lcated near the junctin f US-36 and 120th Avenue, suthwest f and adjacent t the Rcky Muntain Metrplitan Airprt (RMMA). The develpment is a public-private partnership between Jeffersn Cunty and Urban Frntier. The 656-acre site is zned fr a variety f cmmercial uses, including ffice, light industrial and R&D, aviatin uses, and mixed-use. Develpment recently cmmenced n the prperty with the develpment f a 212,000-square-ft FedEx Grund distributin center and the new 118,000-square-ft Nrth and Suth America headquarters building f Pilatus Business Aircraft. The site is a 30-year master planned develpment. Candelas Nrthwest f the Cal Creek Canyn Rad and Indiana Street intersectin, Candelas includes residential and cmmercial land uses. The area is being develped by Arvada Residential Partners and Cimarrn Cmmercial LLC. The 1,450-acre site is expected t incrprate single-family residential, multi-family, ffice, industrial, retail, hspitality, and nncmmercial uses, such as a schl and fire prtectin. Abut 200 residential units currently exist at the site and recent annuncements included the purchase f 22-acres fr a new King Spers lcatin. In additin, Jeffersn Cunty Public Schls pened the new Three Creeks K-8 Schl in Candelas in fall Jeffersn Cunty Prperty The Jeffersn Cunty prperty is lcated n the west side f Highway 93, suth f 56th Avenue. Based n current cunty land use plans, abut 63 acres f the prperty is zned fr light industrial, ffice, r R&D uses, while abut 78 acres is reserved fr pen space. There is n develpment at the site and future develpment will be cntingent n interest frm private develpers and negtiatins with the cunty. REPORT ORGANIZATION Fllwing the Intrductin, Sectins II-IV describe the ecnmic and fiscal benefits f develpment by spending categry. The secnd sectin describes the ecnmic and fiscal benefits assuming cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway, als referred t as the build scenari. Sectin III details the estimated ecnmic and fiscal benefits assuming status qu in the cunty and alng the crridr, als referred t as the n build scenari. The furth sectin f the reprt summarizes the estimated ecnmic and fiscal benefits f the preceding sectins t cmpare the benefits f parkway cmpletin with the n build scenari. The difference between the cmpletin and status qu scenaris represents the net benefits f the parkway in Jeffersn Cunty. The final sectin f the reprt describes benefits that may be attributed t the parkway, but are nt quantified in this analysis. Other ptential benefits include reduced traffic cngestin, imprved safety, and reginal ecnmic benefits. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 4 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

9 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED This sectin describes the ecnmic and fiscal benefits f develpment alng the Jeffersn Parkway crridr t Jeffersn Cunty assuming the parkway is cmpleted in Cmpletin f the parkway is expected t influence the timing f develpment as better reginal access attracts mre businesses and residents t the area. Indeed, a recent study f prjected traffic vlumes n a future parkway nted that significant cngestin n I-25 and I-70 wuld attract a prtin f the reginal thrugh trips t the Jeffersn Parkway as travelers seek a faster rute. 2 The fllwing bullets describe the main assumptins fr ptential develpment assuming parkway cmpletin fr each f the three study prperties. The Verve Innvatin Park and Rcky Muntain Metrplitan Airprt Cmpletin f the parkway will enable buildut f the siteʼs aviatin, ffice, and industrial prperties within a shrter 25-year timeframe rather than the riginally planned 30-year timeframe frm 2011 t Ptential retail and hspitality uses will be initiated with the expected cmpletin f the parkway in With cmpletin f the parkway, retail and hspitality will be cmpleted by Candelas Medical ffice, schl, and fire district prperties will be develped by Office develpment will ccur equally ver a 50-year timeframe starting in Industrial develpment will ccur equally ver a 15-year timeframe starting in Residential and neighbrhd retail will be develped equally frm 2018 t Single-family will be develped at abut 150 units each year and multi-family at abut 200 units each year in rder t achieve ecnmies f scale. Cmpletin f the parkway will imprve the feasibility f reginal retail uses and an entertainment district, cndensing expected buildut t 15 years frm 30 years. Additinally, the parkway will imprve the timeline fr ptential hspitality uses, fllwing the same buildut assumptins. Jeffersn Cunty Prperty Cmpletin f the parkway will enable buildut f 100 percent f the industrially-zned land during the studyʼs 20-year time perid, cmpared with 75 percent cmpletin if the parkway is nt cnstructed. CONSTRUCTION Residential and nnresidential cnstructin activity assciated with cmpletin f the parkway - cmprised f materials and equipment, sft csts, and labr - will ttal an estimated $2.1 billin frm 2018 t Over the 20-year time perid, there will be an estimated 7.3 millin square feet f new nnresidential space and nearly 4,000 husing units added t the existing base f 331,800 square feet f cmmercial space and 200 husing units. Cnstructin activity results in an increase in real prperty values, generates tax and fee revenue fr the cunty, sales fr cunty-based cnstructin gds and services suppliers and vendrs, and payrll fr cnstructin wrkers. 2 Michael Baker Internatinal, Jeffersn Parkway Traffic Mdeling Study, Octber Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 5 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

10 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED Ecnmic Benefits f Cnstructin Spending Based n cnstructin cst estimates utilizing RS Means data fr ptential building types, real estate cmparisns, and flr-t-area ratis fr the nnresidential develpment cnsistent with develper plans, cnstructin with the parkway will be cmprised f an estimated $1 billin fr cnstructin materials and equipment; $309.6 millin in sft csts; and $722.3 millin in cnstructin payrll and emplyee benefits. 3 Based n the average annual wage fr cnstructin wrkers in Jeffersn Cunty frm the Clrad Department f Labr and Emplyment, there will be an estimated 8,800 full-time equivalent 4 (FTE) wrkers emplyed thrughut the 20-year cnstructin perid, r an annual average f abut 440 wrkers (Table 1). Nt all f the cnstructin csts assciated with the develpment will be transacted with businesses and suppliers lcated in Jeffersn Cunty. Of the ttal $2.1 billin prject cst, the amunt spent directly in the cunty n materials and equipment, sft csts, and labr is an estimated $331.1 millin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 1). Based n the cncentratin f establishments, emplyees, and sales in the Metr Denver regin fr cnstructin materials, Jeffersn Cunty-based vendrs and suppliers will capture abut 15 percent f purchases, r $155.8 millin. A prtin f the develpment sft csts, including such items as design and engineering, may be purchased in the cunty. Based n the cncentratin f Metr Denver establishments, emplyees, and sales, an estimated 23 percent f the prject sft csts will be captured in the cunty, r $71.2 millin. Based n an analysis f U.S. Census Bureau data describing the ccupatins f Jeffersn Cunty residents, it is estimated abut 1,575 FTE cnstructin wrkers will be residents f the cunty. The remaining wrkers will likely travel t the site frm ther parts f the Metr Denver regin. Cmpensatin fr these lcal wrkers will ttal an estimated $104.1 millin. Cnstructin benefits are ne-time impacts that ccur nly during the cnstructin perid. Fiscal Benefits fr Jeffersn Cunty The ttal estimated fiscal benefits f the prjects ver the 20-year buildut perid based n sales tax and impact fee revenue is $23.4 millin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 1). 3 SiteStats assumes 50 percent f cnstructin cst is spent n materials and equipment, 15 percent is spent n sft csts, and 35 percent is spent n cnstructin labr. Based n data frm the U.S. Bureau f Labr Statistics, Natinal Cmpensatin Survey, cnstructin wrker benefits will cmprise an estimated 30 percent f ttal cmpensatin. 4 A full-time equivalent cnstructin wrker is defined as ne wrker wrking full time fr ne year. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 6 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

11 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED Jeffersn Cunty will receive sales tax revenue frm purchases f cnstructin materials and equipment fr the develpments. The cunty levies a 0.5 percent sales tax, and des nt have a use tax. Estimated sales tax revenue frm the cnstructin f the develpments frm 2018 t 2037 will be abut $777,000. Jeffersn Cunty charges impact fees based n the number f residential units and the ttal square ftage f develpment. Based n the current impact fee schedule, the prjects will generate an estimated $22.6 millin ver the 20-year perid. Table 1: Summary f Cnstructin Impacts Build Scenari, Lcal Gvernment Revenue Sales Tax n Cnstructin Materials $777,000 Impact Fees $22,618,000 Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $23,395,000 Cnstructin Spending Cnstructin Materials $1,031,836,000 Sft Csts $309,551,000 Cnstructin Emplyment (wrk years) 8,801 Cnstructin Payrll $505,600,000 Cnstructin Benefits $216,686,000 Ttal Cnstructin Csts $2,063,672,000 Ttal Jeffersn Cunty Lcal Purchases $331,082,000 Cnstructin Net Ecnmic Impact $354,476,000 Cnstructin Net Fiscal Impact $23,395,000 BUSINESS OPERATIONS The ecnmic and fiscal benefits f business peratins in Jeffersn Cunty are derived frm emplyment in the cunty, business t business purchases, and retail sales activity. Business spending is estimated t ttal $16 billin frm 2018 t 2037 with an estimated 19,530 emplyees at buildut. The fllwing analysis describes the expected impacts f business peratins ver the 20-year perid. Ecnmic Benefits f Business Spending Based n real estate cmparisns, and utilizing a cst methd f valuatin, the estimated actual value f the nnresidential space will be abut $1.2 billin by Utilizing the rati f persnal prperty t real prperty fr varius prduct types, real estate cmparisns in Jeffersn Cunty, prjected ccupancy f the varius prduct types, and ecnmic life estimates fr persnal prperty frm the Clrad Divisin f Prperty Taxatin, 5 Jeffersn Parkway area businesses will have purchased an estimated $1.4 billin f initial and replacement, furniture, fixtures, and equipment fr their peratins. Estimates f ther peratinal purchases including materials and utilities were derived frm data frm the U.S. Census Bureauʼs Ecnmic Census and Business Expenses Survey. Further, estimates were scaled based n the 5 Based n recmmended ecnmic life estimates, an estimated 12.5 percent f furniture and fixtures, 33.3 percent f cmputer equipment, and 8.3 percent f heavy/manufacturing equipment will be replaced each year. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 7 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

12 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED number f emplyees estimated fr varius prduct types at the develpments, meaning mre emplyees will require mre peratinal materials, higher utility csts, and telecmmunicatin services. Overall, purchases f peratinal materials frm 2018 t 2037 will ttal an estimated $1.5 billin, utilities purchases will be an estimated $404.6 millin, and telecmmunicatins services will be an estimated $261.7 millin. Emplyment in the existing and future businesses lcated at the study sites in the Jeffersn Parkway crridr will increase ver time as new cnstructin is cmpleted and ccupied. Frm 2018 t 2037, businesses will have supprted an estimated 213,040 wrk years, defined as ne FTE fr ne year. This represents annual average emplyment increasing frm 740 wrkers in 2018 t 19,530 wrkers by Based n average annual wages fr Jeffersn Cunty, payrll ver the 20-year perid will ttal an estimated $12.4 billin. Nt all f the business spending assciated with the develpment will be transacted with businesses and suppliers lcated in Jeffersn Cunty. Of the ttal $16 billin in estimated peratinal purchases frm 2018 t 2037, the amunt spent directly in the cunty n persnal prperty, peratinal materials, and cuntyresident emplyees is an estimated $5.6 billin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 2). Based n the cncentratin f establishments, emplyees, and sales in the Metr Denver regin fr purchases f furniture, fixtures, and equipment, Jeffersn Cunty-based vendrs and suppliers will capture abut 17 percent f purchases, r $234.3 millin. Based n the cncentratin f establishments, emplyees, and sales in the Metr Denver regin fr peratinal materials, Jeffersn Cunty-based vendrs and suppliers will capture abut 24 percent f purchases, r $364.5 millin. Based n recent cmmuting patterns data, 6 businesses at the site will have supprted an estimated 86,490 wrk years fr emplyees wh will als be residents f the cunty, earning an estimated $5 billin in payrll frm 2018 t Retail and Htel Sales Activity Based n the expected mix f reginal, neighbrhd, and entertainment-riented retail businesses and weighted retail sales data, the retail space culd generate an estimated $422 in sales per square ft. Frm 2018 t 2037, retail sales will ttal an estimated $4.5 billin fr the study sites. Develpers expect sme htel develpment and hspitality uses at the sites. Based n expected ccupancy and an average number f square feet per rm, 7 hspitality uses culd supprt an estimated 215,300 annual rm nights f demand by Based n develpment assumptins with cmpletin f the parkway, ver the 20-year study perid there will be an estimated 1.96 millin rm nights f demand. Based n rm rate data fr the area, htel sales will ttal an estimated $224.5 millin frm 2018 t Ttal retail and htel sales activity frm 2018 t 2037 with cmpletin f the parkway will be an estimated $4.7 billin (Table 2). 6 Accrding t data frm the U.S. Census Bureauʼs Lcal Emplyment Dynamics database, abut 40.6 percent f emplyees in Jeffersn Cunty are als residents f the cunty. 7 Accrding t data frm the Clrad Htel and Ldging Assciatinʼs Rcky Muntain Ldging Reprt, the ccupancy rate fr the west Denver regin in 2016 was 74.3 percent and the average rm rate was abut $114 per night. Htel rms estimated based n an average f 500 square feet per rm. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 8 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

13 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED Net Fiscal Benefits t Jeffersn Cunty The net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty frm the business activity at the study sites frm 2018 t 2037, cnsidering all tax revenue, ther revenue, and csts, will be an estimated $115.6 millin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 2). Based n the estimated actual value f real and persnal prperty at the study sites, the stateʼs 29 percent cmmercial assessment rate, and the current cunty mill levy f , Jeffersn Cunty will benefit frm an estimated $118.2 millin in prperty tax revenue frm 2018 t Based n the mix f retail ptins estimated fr the study sites, an estimated 84.4 percent f sales will be taxable. Based n the cunty sales tax rate f 0.5 percent, retail and htel activity and business purchases alng the crridr will generate an estimated $26.3 millin in sales tax revenue fr the cunty ver the 20-year perid. The cunty will benefit frm ther revenue related t the business activity. The cunty will als incur csts f services fr the businesses and emplyees. Using an intensity f land use analysis based n an Urban Land Institute methdlgy and the Jeffersn Cunty budget, revenues ther than taxes and the csts f prviding city services were estimated n a per emplyee basis, which was used as the prxy fr business peratins. Other revenue includes such things as charges fr services, licenses and permits, and fines and frfeitures. Revenue ther than sales and prperty taxes is an estimated $31.9 millin fr the cunty frm 2018 t The cst f prviding cunty services t the businesses ver this perid will be an estimated $60.8 millin. Subtracting the cst f services frm ther revenue yields an estimated net cst f $28.9 millin. Table 2: Summary f Business Operatins Impacts Build Scenari, Lcal Gvernment Revenue Real Prperty Tax Revenue $88,523,000 Persnal Prperty Tax Revenue $29,641,000 Sales Tax Revenue $26,353,000 Ttal Other Revenue Less Gvernmental Service Csts ($28,874,000) Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $115,643,000 Emplyment & Earnings Ttal Emplyment (wrk years) 213,038 Ttal Emplyee Earnings $12,407,425,000 Lcal Jeffersn Cunty Emplyee Earnings $5,037,415,000 Business Activity Retail & Htel Sales $4,721,301,000 Business t Business Purchases $3,574,186,000 Ttal Business Activity $8,295,486,000 Ttal Jeffersn Cunty Business t Business Purchases $598,815,000 Business Operatins Net Ecnmic Impact $5,751,873,000 Business Operatins Net Fiscal Impact $115,643,000 Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 9 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

14 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED EMPLOYEE SPENDING The Jeffersn Parkway area emplyees will receive paychecks and will purchase gds and services t supprt their husehlds. This emplyee spending creates sales and prperty tax revenue fr the cunty and generates sales revenue fr lcal businesses. The fllwing analysis describes the expected impacts f emplyee spending ver the 20-year perid with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway. Ecnmic Benefits f Emplyee Spending Business peratins at the study sites will supprt an estimated 86,490 wrk years fr cunty residents frm 2018 t 2037, earning an estimated $5 billin in payrll. This reflects an increase in average annual emplyment fr cunty residents frm 300 wrkers in 2018 t 7,930 wrkers in Sme f the emplyees that live and wrk in the Jeffersn Parkway crridr will als live in the residential areas f the study sites. Fr this study, an estimated 10 percent f hmewners in the Jeffersn Parkway area will als be emplyed at businesses in the area. T avid duble cunting, emplyees that live and wrk at the study sites are accunted fr under the Resident Spending sectin. Based n the Cnsumer Expenditure Survey by the U.S. Bureau f Labr Statistics, the typical husehld in Jeffersn Cunty spends apprximately 34.7 percent f its incme n taxable retail sales, suggesting that emplyees will spend an estimated $1.6 billin n taxable retail sales thrughut the Metr Denver regin. Based n a retail leakage analysis fr the cunty, taxable retail sales were then islated t reflect nly that spending ccurring in the cunty, r an estimated 79 percent. Therefre, emplyees at the study sites residing in the cunty will spend an estimated $1.2 billin at cunty-based businesses ver the 20-year perid (Table 3). Net Fiscal Benefits t Jeffersn Cunty The net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty frm the emplyee spending activity assciated with businesses at the study sites frm 2018 t 2037 cnsidering all tax revenue, ther revenue, and csts will be an estimated $9.4 millin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 3). Based n estimated payrll and hme affrdability, 8 the value f the residential real estate ccupied by emplyee residents in the cunty will be an estimated $1.9 billin by Based n the current residential assessment rate f 7.2 percent and the cunty mill levy, prperty tax revenue generated by the emplyee residents will be an estimated $34.5 millin frm 2018 t Emplyee spending in Jeffersn Cunty n taxable gds and services will generate sales tax revenue fr the cunty. Based n the estimated taxable retail sales in the cunty and the cunty sales tax rate, the cunty will benefit frm $6.2 millin in sales tax revenue ver the 20-year perid. Jeffersn Cunty will benefit frm ther revenue related t the emplyees at the study sites wh reside in the cunty. Based n the cunty budget and intensity f land use f residential develpment, revenues ther than taxes and the csts f prviding cunty services are estimated n a per resident basis. Revenue ther than sales and prperty taxes is an estimated $34.6 millin fr the cunty frm 2018 t The cst f prviding cunty services t the emplyees wh live and wrk 8 Hme affrdability based n 33 percent f incme spent n husing, a 5 percent dwn payment, a 30-year lan term, 4.6 percent annual interest rate, an annual insurance premium as a percent f hme value f 0.5 percent, and average mill levy f Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 10 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

15 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED in the cunty ver this perid will be an estimated $65.9 millin. Subtracting the cst f services frm ther revenue yields an estimated net cst f $31.3 millin. Table 3: Summary f Emplyee Spending Impacts Build Scenari, Lcal Gvernment Revenue Real Prperty Tax Revenue $34,459,000 Sales Tax Revenue $6,222,000 Ttal Other Revenue Less Gvernmental Service Csts ($31,323,000) Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $9,358,000 Business Activity Emplyee t Business Purchases $1,573,185,000 Ttal Jeffersn Cunty Lcal Purchases $1,244,389,000 Emplyee Spending Net Ecnmic Impact $1,253,747,000 Emplyee Spending Net Fiscal Impact $9,358,000 RESIDENT SPENDING The Jeffersn Parkway study sites will have an estimated 4,179 husing units by 2037 and abut 9,800 residents. The plans fr residential develpment include single-family detached, twnhmes, and multi-family units. Sme f the multi-family will be in mixed-use areas f the sites. The residents will generate ecnmic activity in the cunty thrugh their spending habits, which in turn generates sales and prperty tax revenue fr the cunty. The fllwing analysis describes the expected impacts f resident spending ver the 20-year perid with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway. Ecnmic Benefits f Resident Spending Assuming future residential vacancy rates reflect the current average rates in Metr Denver, specifically 99.3 percent fr single-family and 96.6 percent fr multi-family, there will be an estimated 4,082 ccupied husing units by Based n the incme that is needed t affrd the husing mix ffered, 9 annual husehld incme will be $306 millin at buildut. Frm 2018 t 2037, husehld incme will ttal an estimated $4.2 billin. Based n the typical husehld spending an estimated 34.7 percent f its incme n taxable retail sales, residents will spend $1.5 billin n taxable retail sales thrughut the Metr Denver regin. Based n retail leakage fr the cunty, residents living at the study sites will spend an estimated $1.1 billin at cunty-based businesses ver the 20-year perid (Table 4). 9 Based n an average price f $530,000 fr single-family prduct ffered at Candelas as f September 2017 and $230,000 per unit fr multi-family prduct based n asking rents in the cunty at cmparable prperties. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 11 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

16 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED Net Fiscal Benefits t Jeffersn Cunty The net fiscal cst t Jeffersn Cunty frm the residents at the study sites frm 2018 t 2037, cnsidering all tax revenue, ther revenue, and csts, will be an estimated $10.8 millin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 4). Based n the value f the residential real estate ccupied by residents at the study sites, husing will have an estimated value f $1.5 billin by Based n the current residential assessment rate and the cunty mill levy, prperty tax revenue generated by the residents will be an estimated $35.8 millin frm 2018 t Resident spending in Jeffersn Cunty n taxable gds and services will generate sales tax revenue fr the cunty. Based n the estimated taxable retail sales in the cunty and the cunty sales tax rate, the cunty will benefit frm $5.4 millin in sales tax revenue ver the 20-year perid. Jeffersn Cunty will benefit frm ther revenue related t the residents at the study sites. Based n the estimated per resident value f revenues ther than taxes, and the estimated csts f prviding cunty services per resident, revenue ther than sales and prperty taxes is an estimated $57.4 millin fr the cunty frm 2018 t The cst f prviding cunty services t the residents will be an estimated $109.4 millin. Subtracting the cst f services frm ther revenue yields an estimated net cst f $52 millin. Table 4: Summary f Resident Spending Impacts Build Scenari, Lcal Gvernment Revenue Real Prperty Tax Revenue $35,777,000 Sales Tax Revenue $5,449,000 Ttal Other Revenue Less Gvernmental Service Csts ($51,983,000) Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues ($10,757,000) Demgraphics f the Residents (Year 20) Ttal Number f Husing Units 4,179 Ttal Value f Husing Units $1,462,770,000 Ttal Number f Residents 9,803 Ttal Husehld Incme $306,045,000 Business Activity Resident t Business Purchases $1,470,215,000 Ttal Jeffersn Cunty Lcal Purchases $1,089,818,000 Resident Spending Net Ecnmic Impact $1,079,061,000 Resident Spending Net Fiscal Impact ($10,757,000) TOTAL NET ECONOMIC AND FISCAL BENEFITS The ttal net ecnmic and fiscal benefits, cmprised f all cnstructin activity, business, emplyee, and resident spending at study sites in the Jeffersn Parkway area frm 2018 t 2037 will be an estimated $8.4 billin with cmpletin f the parkway, including a net fiscal benefit f $137.6 millin (Table 5). Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 12 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

17 II. JEFFERSON PARKWAY COMPLETED Table 5: Ttal Ecnmic and Fiscal Impacts Build Scenari, Lcal Gv't Ecnmic and Fiscal Benefits Cnstructin $354,476,000 Business Operatins $5,812,632,000 Off-Site Emplyees $1,319,661,000 On-Site Residents $1,188,451,000 Ttal Lcal Gv't Ecnmic Benefits $8,675,221,000 Lcal Gvernment Revenues Cnstructin $23,395,000 Business Operatins $176,403,000 Off-Site Emplyees $75,272,000 On-Site Residents $98,633,000 Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $373,703,000 Lcal Gvernment Csts Cnstructin $0 Business Operatins $60,760,000 Off-Site Emplyees $65,914,000 On-Site Residents $109,390,000 Ttal Lcal Gvernment Csts $236,063,000 Net Ecnmic Benefit (Gv't Ecn Benefits less Gv't Csts) Cnstructin $354,476,000 Business Operatins $5,751,873,000 Off-Site Emplyees $1,253,747,000 On-Site Residents $1,079,061,000 Ttal Net Ecnmic Benefit $8,439,158,000 Net Fiscal Benefit (Gv't Revenues less Gv't Csts) Cnstructin $23,395,000 Business Operatins $115,643,000 Off-Site Emplyees $9,358,000 On-Site Residents ($10,757,000) Ttal Net Fiscal Benefit $137,640,000 Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 13 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

18 III. STATUS QUO INFRASTRUCTURE This sectin describes the ecnmic and fiscal benefits f develpment at the study sites in Jeffersn Cunty assuming the parkway is nt cmpleted, which is als referred t as the n build scenari. Develpers have already brken grund at the Verve Innvatin Park and Candelas and will prceed with develpment based n status qu transprtatin plicy and cnditins, even if the parkway is nt cmpleted. There may als be interest in the cming years in develping the Jeffersn Cunty prperty with the areaʼs existing infrastructure. The fllwing bullets describe the main assumptins fr ptential develpment assuming status qu infrastructure alng the parkway crridr fr each f the three study prperties. Estimates were derived utilizing similar data and methds as described in the previus sectin. The Verve Innvatin Park and Rcky Muntain Metrplitan Airprt The siteʼs aviatin, ffice, and industrial prperties will be built ut ver a 30-year timeframe, frm 2011 t 2040, pushing the last phases f the develpment past the study perid. Cnstructin f ptential retail and hspitality uses will begin in 2022, but with a lnger cmpletin schedule and buildut by Candelas Medical ffice, schl, and fire district prperties will be develped by Office develpment will ccur equally ver a 50-year timeframe starting in Industrial develpment will ccur equally ver a 15-year timeframe starting in Residential and neighbrhd retail will be develped equally frm 2018 t Single-family will be develped at abut 150 units each year and multi-family at abut 200 units each year. Assuming status qu, reginal retail uses and an entertainment district will be built ut ver 30 years starting in Ptential hspitality uses will fllw the same buildut assumptins. Jeffersn Cunty Prperty Assuming status qu, an estimated 75 percent f the planned uses at the Jeffersn Cunty prperty will be cnstructed frm 2018 t CONSTRUCTION Residential and nnresidential cnstructin activity assuming status qu - cmprised f materials and equipment, sft csts, and labr - will ttal an estimated $1.9 billin frm 2018 t Over the 20-year time perid, there will be an estimated 6.2 millin square feet f new nnresidential space cnstructed and nearly 4,000 husing units added t the existing base f 331,800 square feet f nnresidential space and 200 husing units. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 14 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

19 III. STATUS QUO INFRASTRUCTURE Ecnmic Benefits f Cnstructin Spending Cnstructin assuming status qu will be cmprised f an estimated $961.2 millin fr cnstructin materials and equipment; $288.4 millin in sft csts; and $672.8 millin in cnstructin payrll and emplyee benefits. There will be an estimated 8,200 FTE wrkers emplyed thrughut the 20-year cnstructin perid, r an annual average f abut 410 wrkers (Table 6). Nt all f the cnstructin csts assciated with the develpment will be transacted with businesses and suppliers lcated in Jeffersn Cunty. Of the ttal $1.9 billin prject cst, the amunt spent directly in the cunty n materials and equipment, sft csts, and labr is an estimated $308.4 millin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 6). Based n the cncentratin f establishments, emplyees, and sales in the Metr Denver regin fr cnstructin materials, Jeffersn Cunty-based vendrs and suppliers will capture an estimated $145.1 millin. Based n the cncentratin f Metr Denver establishments, emplyees, and sales fr prject sft csts, Jeffersn Cunty-based businesses will be capture an estimated $66.3 millin. Based n the ccupatins f Jeffersn Cunty residents, it is estimated abut 1,470 FTE cnstructin wrkers will be residents f the cunty. The remaining wrkers will likely travel t the site frm ther parts f the Metr Denver regin. Cmpensatin fr these lcal wrkers will ttal an estimated $97 millin. Cnstructin benefits are ne-time impacts that ccur nly during the cnstructin perid. Fiscal Benefits fr Jeffersn Cunty The ttal estimated fiscal benefits f the prjects ver the 20-year buildut perid based n sales tax and impact fee revenue is $20.1 millin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 6). Jeffersn Cunty will receive cnstructin sales tax revenue frm the develpments. Based n the cunty sales tax rate, estimated sales tax revenue frm the cnstructin f the develpments frm 2018 t 2037 will be abut $724,000. Jeffersn Cunty charges impact fees based n the number f residential units and the ttal square ftage f develpment. Based n the current impact fee schedule, the prjects will generate an estimated $19.4 millin ver the 20-year perid. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 15 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

20 III. STATUS QUO INFRASTRUCTURE Table 6: Summary f Cnstructin Impacts N Build Scenari, Lcal Gvernment Revenue Sales Tax n Cnstructin Materials $724,000 Impact Fees $19,402,000 Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $20,126,000 Cnstructin Spending Cnstructin Materials $961,198,000 Sft Csts $288,359,000 Cnstructin Emplyment (wrk years) 8,198 Cnstructin Payrll $470,987,000 Cnstructin Benefits $201,852,000 Ttal Cnstructin Csts $1,922,396,000 Ttal Jeffersn Cunty Lcal Purchases $308,416,000 Cnstructin Net Ecnmic Impact $328,542,000 Cnstructin Net Fiscal Impact $20,126,000 BUSINESS OPERATIONS The ecnmic and fiscal benefits f business peratins in Jeffersn Cunty are derived frm emplyment in the cunty, business t business purchases, and retail sales activity. Business spending is estimated t ttal $13.3 billin frm 2018 t 2037 with an estimated 16,330 emplyees at buildut, assuming status qu. The fllwing analysis describes the expected impacts f business peratins ver the 20-year perid. Ecnmic Benefits f Business Spending The estimated actual value f the nnresidential space assuming status qu will be abut $1 billin by Based n estimates f purchases f initial persnal prperty and n-ging replacement purchases, businesses at the study sites will have spent an estimated $1.1 billin fr their furniture, fixtures, and equipment. Purchases f peratinal materials frm 2018 t 2037 will ttal an estimated $1.3 billin, utilities purchases will be an estimated $334.8 millin, and telecmmunicatins services will be an estimated $214.9 millin. Emplyment in the existing and future businesses lcated at the study sites will increase ver time as new cnstructin is cmpleted and ccupied. Frm 2018 t 2037, businesses will have supprted an estimated 175,660 wrk years, reflecting the increase in average annual emplyment frm 740 wrkers in 2018 t 16,330 wrkers in Payrll ver the 20-year perid will ttal an estimated $10.3 billin. Nt all f the business spending assciated with the develpment will be transacted with businesses and suppliers lcated in Jeffersn Cunty. Of the ttal $13.3 billin in estimated peratinal purchases frm 2018 t 2037, the amunt spent directly in the cunty n persnal prperty, peratinal materials, and cuntyresident emplyees is an estimated $4.7 billin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 7). Based n the cncentratin f establishments, emplyees, and sales in the Metr Denver regin fr purchases f furniture, fixtures, and equipment, Jeffersn Cunty-based vendrs and suppliers will capture an estimated $195.2 millin. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 16 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

21 III. STATUS QUO INFRASTRUCTURE Based n the cncentratin f establishments, emplyees, and sales in the Metr Denver regin fr peratinal materials, Jeffersn Cunty-based vendrs and suppliers will capture an estimated $303.2 millin. Based n recent cmmuting patterns data, businesses at the site will have supprted an estimated 71,320 wrk years fr emplyees wh will als be residents f the cunty, earning an estimated $4.2 billin in payrll frm 2018 t Retail and Htel Sales Activity Based n the expected mix f reginal, neighbrhd, and entertainment-riented retail businesses and weighted retail sales data, the retail space culd generate an estimated $426 in sales per square ft. Frm 2018 t 2037, retail sales will ttal an estimated $3.6 billin fr the study sites. Develpers expect sme htel develpment and hspitality uses at the sites. Assuming status qu, hspitality uses at the study sites culd supprt an estimated 162,200 annual rm nights f demand by Over the 20-year study perid there will be an estimated 1.4 millin rm nights f demand. Based n rm rate data fr the area, htel sales will ttal an estimated $156.2 millin frm 2018 t Ttal retail and htel sales activity frm 2018 t 2037 will be an estimated $3.8 billin (Table 7). Net Fiscal Benefits t Jeffersn Cunty The net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty frm the business activity at the study sites frm 2018 t 2037, cnsidering all tax revenue, ther revenue, and csts, will be an estimated $94.6 millin assuming status qu, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 7). Based n the estimated actual value f real and persnal prperty at the study sites, the cmmercial assessment rate, and the current cunty mill levy, Jeffersn Cunty will benefit frm an estimated $97.5 millin in prperty tax revenue frm 2018 t Based n the mix f retail ptins estimated fr the study sites, an estimated 83.2 percent f sales will be taxable. Based n the cunty sales tax rate, retail and htel activity and business purchases at the study sites will generate an estimated $20.9 millin in sales tax revenue fr the cunty ver the 20- year perid. The cunty will benefit frm ther revenue related t the business activity. The cunty will als incur csts f services fr the businesses and emplyees. Revenue ther than sales and prperty taxes is an estimated $26.3 millin fr the cunty frm 2018 t The cst f prviding cunty services t the businesses ver this perid will be an estimated $50.1 millin. Subtracting the cst f services frm ther revenue yields an estimated net cst f $23.8 millin. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 17 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

22 III. STATUS QUO INFRASTRUCTURE Table 7: Summary f Business Operatins Impacts N Build Scenari, Lcal Gvernment Revenue Real Prperty Tax Revenue $72,273,000 Persnal Prperty Tax Revenue $25,190,000 Sales Tax Revenue $20,933,000 Ttal Other Revenue Less Gvernmental Service Csts ($23,808,000) Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $94,588,000 Emplyment & Earnings Ttal Emplyment (wrk years) 175,660 Ttal Emplyee Earnings $10,285,145,000 Lcal Jeffersn Cunty Emplyee Earnings $4,175,769,000 Business Activity Retail & Htel Sales $3,761,588,000 Business t Business Purchases $2,969,841,000 Ttal Business Activity $6,731,429,000 Ttal Jeffersn Cunty Business t Business Purchases $498,342,000 Business Operatins Net Ecnmic Impact $4,768,698,000 Business Operatins Net Fiscal Impact $94,588,000 EMPLOYEE SPENDING The Jeffersn Parkway area emplyees will receive paychecks and will purchase gds and services t supprt their husehlds. This emplyee spending creates sales and prperty tax revenue fr the cunty and generates sales revenue fr lcal businesses. The fllwing analysis describes the expected impacts f emplyee spending ver the 20-year perid assuming status qu. Ecnmic Benefits f Emplyee Spending Business peratins at the study sites will supprt an estimated 71,320 wrk years fr cunty residents frm 2018 t 2037, earning an estimated $4.2 billin in payrll. This reflects an increase in average annual emplyment fr cunty residents frm 300 wrkers in 2018 t 6,630 wrkers in Sme f the emplyees that live and wrk in the Jeffersn Parkway crridr will als live in the residential areas f the study sites. Fr this study, an estimated 10 percent f hmewners in the Jeffersn Parkway area will als be emplyed at businesses in the area. T avid duble cunting, emplyees that live and wrk at the study sites are accunted fr under the Resident Spending sectin. Based n the typical prtin f husehld incme spent n taxable retail sales in Jeffersn Cunty, the emplyees will spend an estimated $1.3 billin n taxable retail sales thrughut the Metr Denver regin. Adjusting taxable retail sales t reflect nly that spending ccurring in the cunty, emplyees at the study sites that reside in the cunty will spend an estimated $1 billin at cunty-based businesses ver the 20-year perid (Table 8). Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 18 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

23 III. STATUS QUO INFRASTRUCTURE Net Fiscal Benefits t Jeffersn Cunty The net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty frm the emplyee spending activity assciated with businesses at the study sites frm 2018 t 2037 cnsidering all tax revenue, ther revenue, and csts will be an estimated $7.9 millin, cnsisting f the fllwing cmpnents (Table 8). Based n estimated payrll and hme affrdability, the value f the residential real estate ccupied by emplyee residents in the cunty will be an estimated $1.6 billin by Based n the current residential assessment rate and cunty mill levy, prperty tax revenue generated by the emplyee residents will be an estimated $28.5 millin frm 2018 t Emplyee spending in Jeffersn Cunty n taxable gds and services will generate sales tax revenue fr the cunty. Based n the estimated taxable retail sales in the cunty and the cunty sales tax rate, the cunty will benefit frm $5.2 millin in sales tax revenue ver the 20-year perid. Jeffersn Cunty will benefit frm ther revenue related t the emplyees at the study sites wh reside in the cunty. Based n the cunty budget and intensity f land use f residential develpment, revenue ther than sales and prperty taxes is an estimated $28.5 millin fr the cunty frm 2018 t The cst f prviding cunty services t the emplyees wh live and wrk in the cunty ver this perid will be an estimated $54.3 millin. Subtracting the cst f services frm ther revenue yields an estimated net cst f $25.8 millin. Table 8: Summary f Emplyee Spending Impacts N Build Scenari, Lcal Gvernment Revenue Real Prperty Tax Revenue $28,521,000 Sales Tax Revenue $5,158,000 Ttal Other Revenue Less Gvernmental Service Csts ($25,827,000) Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $7,851,000 Business Activity Emplyee t Business Purchases $1,304,093,000 Ttal Jeffersn Cunty Lcal Purchases $1,031,537,000 Emplyee Spending Net Ecnmic Impact $1,039,388,000 Emplyee Spending Net Fiscal Impact $7,851,000 RESIDENT SPENDING The Jeffersn Parkway study sites will have an estimated 4,179 husing units by 2037 and abut 9,800 residents. The plans fr residential develpment are nt expected t change assuming status qu r cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway. The net ecnmic benefit will be an estimated $1.1 billin, including a net fiscal cst f $10.8 millin frm 2018 t Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 19 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

24 III. STATUS QUO INFRASTRUCTURE TOTAL NET ECONOMIC AND FISCAL BENEFITS The ttal net ecnmic and fiscal benefits, cmprised f all cnstructin activity, business, emplyee, and resident spending at study sites in the Jeffersn Parkway area frm 2018 t 2037 will be an estimated $7.2 billin assuming status qu, including a net fiscal benefit f $111.8 millin (Table 9). Table 9: Ttal Ecnmic and Fiscal Impacts N Build Scenari, Lcal Gv't Ecnmic and Fiscal Benefits Cnstructin $328,542,000 Business Operatins $4,818,798,000 Off-Site Emplyees $1,093,737,000 On-Site Residents $1,188,451,000 Ttal Lcal Gv't Ecnmic Benefits $7,429,528,000 Lcal Gvernment Revenues Cnstructin $20,126,000 Business Operatins $144,687,000 Off-Site Emplyees $62,200,000 On-Site Residents $98,633,000 Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $325,646,000 Lcal Gvernment Csts Cnstructin $0 Business Operatins $50,099,000 Off-Site Emplyees $54,349,000 On-Site Residents $109,390,000 Ttal Lcal Gvernment Csts $213,838,000 Net Ecnmic Benefit (Gv't Ecn Benefits less Gv't Csts) Cnstructin $328,542,000 Business Operatins $4,768,698,000 Off-Site Emplyees $1,039,388,000 On-Site Residents $1,079,061,000 Ttal Net Ecnmic Benefit $7,215,690,000 Net Fiscal Benefit (Gv't Revenues less Gv't Csts) Cnstructin $20,126,000 Business Operatins $94,588,000 Off-Site Emplyees $7,851,000 On-Site Residents ($10,757,000) Ttal Net Fiscal Benefit $111,808,000 Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 20 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

25 IV. DEVELOPMENT COMPARISON Develpment in the Jeffersn Parkway area will likely ccur with r withut the prpsed radway. Hwever, the timing and prduct mix f develpment is likely t differ. Based n the assumptins f this analysis, the ttal net ecnmic and fiscal benefits in Jeffersn Cunty are 17 percent higher frm 2018 t 2037 with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway cmpared with the status qu, representing an increase f $1.2 billin. The net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty will increase by 23 percent with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway, representing a $25.8 millin increase (Table 10). Cnstructin The net ecnmic and fiscal benefits f cnstructin activity will increase by an estimated 7.9 percent with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway, r by $25.9 millin. This includes a 16.2 percent increase in net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty f $3.3 millin (Table 10). Business Operatins The net ecnmic and fiscal benefits f business peratins will increase by an estimated 20.6 percent with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway, r by $983.2 millin. This includes a 22.3 percent increase in net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty f $21.1 millin (Table 10). Emplyee Spending The net ecnmic and fiscal benefits f emplyee spending will increase by an estimated 20.6 percent with cmpletin f the Jeffersn Parkway, r by $214.4 millin. This includes a 19.2 percent increase in net fiscal benefits t Jeffersn Cunty f $1.5 millin (Table 10). Resident Spending Residential develpment is nt expected t differ between the build and n build scenaris. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 21 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

26 IV. DEVELOPMENT COMPARISON Table 10: Ttal Ecnmic and Fiscal Impacts Cmparisn f the Build and N Build Scenaris, Build N Build Difference (Build-N Build) Percent Change Lcal Gv't Ecnmic and Fiscal Benefits Cnstructin $354,476,000 $328,542,000 $25,934, % Business Operatins $5,812,632,000 $4,818,798,000 $993,834, % Off-Site Emplyees $1,319,661,000 $1,093,737,000 $225,924, % On-Site Residents $1,188,451,000 $1,188,451,000 $0 0.0% Ttal Lcal Gv't Ecnmic and Fiscal Benefits $8,675,221,000 $7,429,528,000 $1,245,693, % Lcal Gvernment Revenues Cnstructin $23,395,000 $20,126,000 $3,269, % Business Operatins $176,403,000 $144,687,000 $31,716, % Off-Site Emplyees $75,272,000 $62,200,000 $13,072, % On-Site Residents $98,633,000 $98,633,000 $0 0.0% Ttal Lcal Gvernment Revenues $373,703,000 $325,646,000 $48,057, % Lcal Gvernment Csts Cnstructin $0 $0 $0 NA Business Operatins $60,760,000 $50,099,000 $10,661, % Off-Site Emplyees $65,914,000 $54,349,000 $11,565, % On-Site Residents $109,390,000 $109,390,000 $0 0.0% Ttal Lcal Gvernment Csts $236,063,000 $213,838,000 $22,225, % Net Ecnmic Benefit (Ecn and Fiscal Benefits less Gv't Csts) Cnstructin $354,476,000 $328,542,000 $25,934, % Business Operatins $5,751,873,000 $4,768,698,000 $983,175, % Off-Site Emplyees $1,253,747,000 $1,039,388,000 $214,359, % On-Site Residents $1,079,061,000 $1,079,061,000 $0 0.0% Ttal Net Ecnmic Benefit $8,439,157,000 $7,215,690,000 $1,223,467, % Net Fiscal Benefit (Gv't Revenues less Gv't Csts) Cnstructin $23,395,000 $20,126,000 $3,269, % Business Operatins $115,643,000 $94,588,000 $21,055, % Off-Site Emplyees $9,358,000 $7,851,000 $1,507, % On-Site Residents ($10,757,000) ($10,757,000) $0 0.0% Ttal Net Fiscal Benefit $137,639,000 $111,808,000 $25,831, % Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 22 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

27 V. OTHER BENEFITS There are many ptential benefits f the Jeffersn Parkway beynd the changes in develpment patterns analyzed in this study. The parkway is a reginal prject and will have extensive benefits thrughut Metr Denver, benefits that are als nt analyzed in this reprt. Ptential benefits include traffic reductins, imprved safety, and reginal cnstructin and business purchases. This sectin f the reprt discusses sme f these ptential benefits and highlights the findings f studies f anther prtin f the beltway, namely E-470. Traffic A recent traffic mdeling study cmmissined by the JPPHA supprted the need fr the Jeffersn Parkway prject. A mdel f traffic utilizing a n-build scenari fr several existing intersectins fund a significant deteriratin f level f service measures by Several intersectins were prjected t be at failure, defined as a breakdwn in traffic flw with excessive cngestin and delay, assuming a n-build scenari. The study cncluded that the Jeffersn Parkway wuld prvide reduced travel times and anther safe transprtatin ptin fr Metr Denver. Imprved highway infrastructure reduces travel time and the cst f traffic cngestin. A study examining the ecnmic cntributins f E-470 fund that the tllway saved residents f Metr Denver frm 14.8 millin mre hurs f drive time and 20 millin hurs f cngestin each year. The reduced drive time was assciated with an estimated saving fr cmmuters f $26.1 millin annually, after netting ut the cst f tlls. Safety Based n the E-470 ecnmic cntributins study, mving traffic t a safer radway type, such as E-470, prduced cst savings assciated with fewer accidents, injuries, and fatalities. Researchers nted that at the federal and state levels, a divided highway is safer than ther radways such as arterials, cllectrs, and lcal rads. The study estimated the cst savings ttaled $24 millin each year. Reginal Ecnmic Activity The E-470 ecnmic cntributins study fund the radwayʼs impact area had a $14.2 billin impact n the grss reginal prduct f the Metr Denver area in This included $8.4 billin in aggregate wages and $461.7 millin in ttal prperty taxes. The E-470 impact area accunted fr 12 percent f the Denver metr areaʼs ecnmic activity. The study estimated apprximately 21,000 husehlds and 7,800 jbs were dependent n E- 470 fr daily cmmuting and persnal travel. As a business, the E-470 Public Highway Authrity emplyed 272 full- and part-time wrkers bth directly and thrugh cntract services. Indirect and induced jbs in the regin supprted by E-470ʼs administrative peratins ttaled an estimated 243 jbs. Based n its spending patterns, the E-470 Public Highway Authrity supprted $80.6 millin f ecnmic activity in Metr Denver. After cmpletin, the Jeffersn Parkway may have similar impacts. Jbs will be created and supprted by nging administrative and maintenance peratins fr the radway, as well as ptentially increasing prperty values. Similar t develpment that has ccurred arund E-470, the cmpletin f the parkway is expected t facilitate additinal develpment. The business spending assciated with develpment alng the Jeffersn Parkway will als have reginal benefits as dllars spent n emplyees and business purchases are circulated thrughut the reginal ecnmy. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 23 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

28 VI. REFERENCES Clrad Department f Labr and Emplyment, Labr Market Infrmatin. Quarterly Census f Emplyment and Wages. Clrad Department f Lcal Affairs, Divisin f Prperty Taxatin. Clrad Department f Revenue. Clrad Retail Sales and Sales Tax Summaries. Clrad Divisin f Lcal Gvernment, State Demgraphy Office. Clrad Htel and Ldging Assciatin. Rcky Muntain Ldging Reprt, Denver Editin, December CStar Grup. Ecnmic & Planning Systems, Inc. Ecnmic Cntributins f the E-470 Tllway, E-470 Public Highway Authrity, June %20Study%20-% pdf Hvers. Market Analysis Prfile. Jeffersn Cunty. Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity. Michael Baker Internatinal. Jeffersn Parkway Traffic Mdeling Study. Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity, Octber RSMeans. Square Ft Csts with RSMeans Data, Grdian, 38th Editin, U.S. Department f Cmmerce, Bureau f the Census, 2015 American Cmmunity Survey. U.S. Department f Cmmerce, 2012 Ecnmic Census. U.S. Department f Cmmerce, Bureau f the Census, Lngitudinal Emplyer-Husehld Dynamics. U.S. Department f Labr, Bureau f Labr Statistics. Cnsumer Expenditure Survey. U.S. Department f Labr, Bureau f Labr Statistics. Natinal Cmpensatin Survey, Emplyer Csts fr Emplyee Cmpensatin, September U.S. General Services Administratin. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 24 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

29 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Patricia Silverstein is the president and chief ecnmist f Develpment Research Partners. Ms. Silverstein has prvided research and supprt fr ecnmic develpment effrts in Clrad and acrss the cuntry since Her expertise in ecnmic research and ecnmic develpment includes industry cluster studies and strategic ecnmic develpment planning. She has extensive experience in preparing ecnmic impact and fiscal impact analysis fr cmmunity develpment purpses. In additin, she serves as the cnsulting chief ecnmist fr the Metr Denver Ecnmic Develpment Crp. and the Denver Metr Chamber f Cmmerce. In these rles, she cmpiles, interprets, and frecasts ecnmic and demgraphic data fr the Denver metrplitan area and perfrms in-depth research n issues and prpsed develpments impacting the regin. Ms. Silverstein prvides numerus presentatins n state and lcal ecnmic cnditins t business and prfessinal rganizatins thrughut the year. Ms. Silverstein received a bachelrʼs degree in ecnmics frm Nebraska Wesleyan University in Lincln, Nebraska and a masterʼs degree in ecnmics frm the University f Clrad Bulder. David Hansen is a senir ecnmist with Develpment Research Partners. Mr. Hansenʼs expertise is in fiscal and ecnmic impact analyses, having cnducted numerus studies fr industries such as higher educatin, traditinal and renewable energy, and residential and cmmercial real estate develpment. Analyses entail develping custmized mdels, applying standard ecnmic and fiscal impact methdlgies, and cncisely identifying cmplex industry relatinships. He has cmprehensive knwledge f Clradʼs lcal budget and tax structures in rder t identify the impact prjects, businesses, and residents have n the fiscal situatin f a cmmunity. David als cnducts ecnmic and demgraphic research fr varying prject needs, skills that he initially gained as a business develpment specialist fr Delta Area Develpment prir t jining DRP. Mr. Hansen earned a bachelrʼs degree in ecnmics frm Clrad State University in Frt Cllins, Clrad. Jeffersn Cunty Ecnmic Develpment Crp. Octber 2017 Page 25 Jeffersn Parkway Public Highway Authrity

30 Ecnmic and Demgraphic Research Industry Studies Fiscal and Ecnmic Impact Analysis Real Estate Ecnmics West Belleview Avenue Suite 100 Littletn, Clrad