Revenue Forecasting Practices: Accuracy, Transparency and Political Acceptance

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1 March 18, 2017 Center for State and Local Finance Revenue Forecasting Practices: Accuracy, Transparency and Political Acceptance

2 Overview Why is revenue forecasting important? Literature review Methodology Results Overall State examples Conclusion 2

3 Why is revenue forecasting important? In a balanced budget environment, the revenue estimate constrains expenditures Forecasting accuracy is notoriously difficult to achieve A key element of fiscal discipline is that political actors accept and abide by the revenue estimate Theoretically, transparency keeps forecasters accountable for accurate and politically acceptable forecasts 3

4 Literature Review Accuracy Academic literature supports combining forecasts and using independent experts to increase accuracy in forecasts The verdict is still out on consensus forecasting Survey data show some states adopt consensus forecasts to increase accuracy* Transparency Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) and others recommend disclosing the macroeconomic trends (GDP, inflation, etc.) that underpin the forecast Political Acceptance A number of authors recommend consensus forecasting to reduce political contention Research is mostly anecdotal Many states have adopted consensus forecasting * Qiao, Yuhua. Use of Consensus Revenue Forecasting in U.S. State Governments. In Government Budget Forecasting: Theory and Practice. ed. Jinping Sun and Thomas D. Lynch. 142: Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. 4

5 Research Questions What are the forecasting processes used in the southeastern states? How accurate are the state revenue forecasts? How transparent are states in supporting their forecast methodology? Is there any obvious relationship between forecasting process, accuracy, transparency, and political acceptance? What does the contextual detail around state revenue forecasting practices tell us about assessing forecasting accuracy, transparency and political acceptance? 5

6 Methods Volcker Alliance data on revenue forecasting processes, multi-year revenue and expenditure forecasts, revenue growth projection rationales, and midyear budget adjustments Includes rich contextual detail on forecasting practices for five states (GA, NC, SC, MD and VA) Additional research National Association of Budget Officers (NASBO) Fiscal Survey of the States data: used to calculate and grade forecasting error 6

7 Forecasting Processes Most southeastern states have a consensus forecast However, these processes are quite different Examples: In North Carolina, the lead executive and legislative economists get together to informally agree on an estimate In Virginia, there are two groups, a staff group that looks at methodology (JABE) and a political group that reviews the forecast and overall economic climate (GACRE) In Florida, there are a series of conferences around estimating different elements of the expenditure and revenue forecasts 7

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9 Accuracy Results Average forecast error is smaller than the 3.3% error rate reported in other research* FY15, 2.02% FY16, 2.5% There does not appear to be a relationship between accuracy and consensus forecasts for the time period studied (FY15 and FY16) However, the wide variation in how the forecast is used makes it difficult to assess accuracy The revenue forecast is not always the same as what the state anticipates it will receive in revenues We found several examples where forecast appeared to be used as a policy lever *Boyd, Donald J. and Lucy Dadayan State Tax Revenue Forecasting Accuracy. Rockefeller Institute. 9

10 Accuracy Results, FY15 10

11 Accuracy Results, FY16 11

12 Transparency Results Most states include macroeconomic trends in their forecasting documents in a general way There does not appear to be a relationship between transparency in the forecast and accuracy for the time period studied For example: Alabama does not disclose macroeconomic trends used at all earned an A both years studied West Virginia describes macroeconomic trends earned an F in FY16 12

13 Transparency Results 13

14 Political Acceptance Results For the five states we looked at in depth (GA, SC, NC, VA and MD), we tracked the forecast through the budget process and various documents produced Executive and legislature both built budgets off of revenue forecast; no unexpected changes. Discussion with other staff on Volcker Alliance project no one observed contention around the forecast Could be that consensus forecast was adopted to reduce contention around the forecast; could be that years we looked at were not particularly contentious However, no evidence that revenue estimate was disputed in the 15 states during FY15, FY16 and FY17. 14

15 Conclusions Most southeastern states have a consensus forecast; but these processes vary widely The relationship between consensus forecasts and accuracy and transparency is difficult to determine The relationship between detailed methodologies and accuracy is also unclear; however, some states do have methodologies that are refreshingly detailed Researchers consider conservative estimates and other idiosyncrasies in state revenue forecasting when comparing forecasting errors 15