Major Economic Indicators

Transcription

1 Volume: 11/2015 Major Economic Indicators Monthly Update: November 2015 Major Economic Indicators Monetary Policy Department Bangladesh Bank

2 Contents Page No. Executive summary Monetary and credit developments Reserve money developments CPI and inflation Liquidity position of scheduled banks Financial sector prices a) Rate Development... 7 b) Rate Spread Capital market developments Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit a) Industrial term loan b) Outstanding position of SME loan Industrial production Exports a) Annual and monthly trends in exports 13 b) Category-wise breakdown of exports Imports a) Import payments, L/Cs settlement and L/Cs opening b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding L/Cs 16 c) Projected data on opening of import L/Cs & probable liabilities against BTB L/Cs Remittances Foreign exchange holdings abroad Foreign aid Exchange Rate Movements Balance of payments Public finance a) Government Tax revenue collections 21 b) Sale and repayment of NSD certificates 22 c) Budget financing Food situation 23 Appendix

3 Executive Summary Both broad money (M2) and private sector credit growth increased in September 2015 compared with the previous month. Both 12-month average and point to point Inflation decreased in October Movement of monetary indicators Broad money (M2) grew by percent (y-o-y) in September 2015 which was higher than percent growth in the previous month but lower than percent growth during the same period of the preceding year. M2 increased due to higher net foreign assets and net domestic assets that registered percent and percent growth in September Private sector credit recorded a percent growth in September 2015, which was slightly higher than the percent growth in August 2015 and percent growth in September Inflation scenario Both twelve-month average and point-to-point general inflation decreased to 6.21 percent and 6.19 percent respectively in October 2015 from 6.24 percent in September 2015 due mainly to decrease in food inflation. However, point to point non-food inflation also decreased to 6.67 percent in October 2015 from 6.73 percent in September State of the financial sector rate spread widened slightly in September The spread between the weighted average rates of advances and deposits increased slightly and stood at 4.82 percent in September 2015 from 4.77 percent of August, The weighted average call money rate (m -o-m) decreased to 3.89 percent in November (Up to 23) 2015 from 5.63 percent of October, 2015 due to huge excess liquidity in the money market. 4. Setting of the external sector Export earnings growth was steady in the first four months of FY16 Import payments decreased during the first quarter of FY16 Export earnings recorded a growth of 4.95 percent (y-o-y) in July-October 2015 from its level of July-October The export items that registered a positive growth during July-October, 2015 include woven garments, knitwear, raw jute and engin.& electric goods. On the other hand, frozen food, leather, agricultural products, jute goods (excl.carpet), chemical products and tea experienced a negative growth during July-October, 2015 compared to the same period of the previous year. Import payments (c&f) in July-September, 2015 decreased by 8.53 percent and stood at USD10.17 billion compared to USD11.12 billion in July-September, Fresh opening of import LCs in July-September 2015 increased by 1.32 percent and stood at USD9.93 billion compared to that of July-September, From the sectoral distribution of L/C opening during the period under review, it is revealed that L/C opening for the Industrial raw materials is the highest which is percent of total L/C opening followed the by L/C opening of consumer goods of percent. 1

4 Setting of the external sector (contd.) Remittance receipts increased slightly during the first four months of FY 16 Current account Balance recorded a surplus in First Quarter of FY16 Net receipts of foreign aid increased in July-October Remittance receipts increased by 0.06 percent and stood at USD5.02 billion during July-October, 2015 compared to that of July-October, Also remittance receipts increased by 6.83 percent (y-o-y) in October 2015 and stood at USD1.09 billion compared with the same month of the previous year. However, remittance receipts decreased substantially by percent in October 2015 compared to that of September Current account balance recorded a surplus of USD0.74 billion due to higher export earnings and lower import payments. The total foreign aid disbursements in July-October, 2015 decreased by USD0.03 billion or 3.95 percent and stood at USD0.73 billion compared to USD0.77 billion in July-October, However, net receipts of foreign aid were higher and stood at USD0.43 billion in July-October, 2015 compared to that of July- October, Forex reserves crossed billion in October, The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD27.06 billion (with ACU liability of USD0.89 billion) as of end October 2015, compared with USD26.38 billion (with ACU liability of USD0. 43 billion) as of end September The reserve crossed the benchmark of USD27 billion at the end of October The reserve stood at USD26.33 billion as on November 24, 2015 (after ACU payment of USD0.88 billion on November 04, 2015.). Govt. budget management improved on steady pace of revenue collection 5. Developments in the fiscal sector NBR Tax Revenue collection during July-September of FY16 stood at Tk crore which was higher by 9.60 percent compared with the collection of Tk crore during the same period of the preceding year. 6. Status of the production sector Agricultural credit, SME loans and industrial term loan increased during the period under review. Disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit increased by percent and percent respectively during July-September, 2015 compared with that of July-September, SME loans by banks and non-bank financial institutions in June 2015 increased by percent compared with the same month of last year. However, specialized banks and foreign commercial banks experienced a negative growth of percent and percent respectively at the end of June 2015 from its level of June, Disbursement of industrial term loans during the fourth quarter of FY15 stood significantly higher by percent and stood at Tk crore compared with the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Recovery of industrial term loans also increased by percent compared with the corresponding period of the last year. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at in July 2015 recording a decrease of 1.31 percent from the index of in July

5 1. Monetary and credit developments Outstanding stock Particulars June 2014 June 2015 September 2015 FY September 2015 over September 2014 September 2014 over September A. Net Foreign Assets of banking system B. Net Domestic Assets of banking system Changes in outstanding stock (Crore taka) (+18.23) (+23.43) (+35.02) (+10.70) (+10.32) (+10.99) a) Domestic credit (+9.97) (+9.94) (+12.27) Public sector (-2.56) (-1.37) (+12.73) Govt.(net) (-6.19) (-2.53) (+10.30) Other Public (+30.88) (+8.28) (+38.13) Private sector (+13.19) (+12.88) (+12.15) b) Other items (net) (+5.96) (+7.77) (+20.15) C. Broad money (A+B) (+12.42) (+13.31) (+15.68) i) Currency outside banks (+14.34) (+17.13) (+26.23) ii) Deposits (+12.18) (+12.78) (+14.37) a) Demand deposits (+12.57) (+12.72) (+15.08) b) Time deposits (+12.13) (+12.79) (+14.30) Source: Statistics Department. Note: Figures in brackets of column#5 indicate percentage changes over end June of previous fiscal. Broad money Broad money recorded an increase of Tk crore or percent (y -o-y) at the end of September 2015 against the increase of Tk crore or percent at the end of September Of the sources of broad money, net domestic assets (NDA) rose by Tk crore or percent and net foreign assets (NFA) rose by Tk crore or percent at the end of September, Domestic credit Domestic credit recorded an increase of Tk crore or 9.94 percent (y -o-y) at the end of September 2015 against the increase of Tk crore or percent at the end of September Credit to the private sector recorded a growth of percent while credit to the public sector decreased 1.37 percent in September 2015 compared to the same month of the previous year. 18 Broad Money Growth (y-o-y % changes) 12.5 Domestic Credit Growth (y-o-y % changes) FY' FY'16 FY' FY' Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 9.0 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 3

6 2. Reserve money developments Particulars June 2014 June 2015 September 2015 FY September 2015 over September 2014 September 2014 over September Net Foreign Assets of Bangladesh Bank Net Domestic Assets of Bangladesh Bank Outstanding stock (+20.27) (+24.39) (+37.92) (+39.07) ( ) ( ) Claims on Govt.(net) Claims on other public (+79.66) (+94.71) (-19.05) Claims on DMBs (-9.87) (-52.99) (+37.59) Other items (net) Reserve money (+14.33) (+13.24) (+25.99) Currency Issued (+14.82) (+15.79) (+26.19) i) Currency outside banks (+14.34) (+17.13) (+26.23) ii) Cash in tills (+19.08) (+3.81) (+25.80) Deposits held with BB (+13.38) (+7.93) (+25.57) Of which: Excess reserves Reserve money multiplier Source: Statistics Department. Note:Figures in brackets of column#5 indicate percentage changes over end June of previous fiscal. (Crore taka) Changes in outstanding stock Reserve Money Reserve money recorded an increase of percent (y -o-y) in September 2015 which increased by percent during the same period of the preceding year. Of the sources of reserve money, net foreign assets of Bangladesh Bank increased by Tk crore or percent, while net domestic assets of Bangladesh Bank decreased by Tk crore, in September 2015 resulting from much lower credit demand by the government Reserve Money Growth (y-o-y) % changes FY'16 FY'15 Reserve money multiplier decreased and stood at 5.05 in September 2015, from 5.30 in June Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 4

7 3. CPI and Inflation Consumer Price Index(CPI) and Rate of Inflation at National Level (Base : FY =100) General Twelve-Month Average Basis Food Non-food Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation July August September October November December January February March April May June General Point to Point Basis July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning. Food Non-food Average (12 month) general inflation decreased from 6.24 percent of September 2015 to 6.21 percent in October The twelve month average food inflation decreased to 6.15 percent in October 2015 compared with 6.25 percent in September 2015, while the twelve month average non-food inflation increased to 6.30 percent in October 2015 from 6.22 percent of September The point to point general inflation decreased by 0.74 percentage points and stood at 6.19 percent in October 2015 from 6.24 percent in September 2015 due to decrease in both food and non-food inflation. Food inflation decreased to 5.89 percent in October 2015 from 5.92 percent of September 2015 and, non-food inflation decreased to 6.67 percent in October 2015 from 6.73 percent of September Oct.14 Nov.14 CPI(Base:FY =100) Inflation Average P to P Dec.14 Jan.15 Feb.15 Mar.15 Apr.15 May15 Jun.15 Jul.15 Aug.15 Sep.15 Oct.15 5

8 4. Liquidity position of the scheduled banks As of end June, 2015 Cash in tills+ balances with As of end September 2015 P Unencumbered approved Sonali Bank Local Currency Foreign Currency securities a 4b 5 6=(3+4a+4b+5) 7 Excess Reserve CRR (un-invested cash) State owned Banks Private Banks (Other than Islamic) Private Banks (Islamic) Foreign Banks Specialised Banks Total (+4.33) (+19.72) (+0.30) (+3.48) (+72.17) 2015 Bank Group Total Liquid Assets Balances with Bangladesh Bank Source : Department of Offsite Supervision. Note :- Figures in brackets indicate sectoral share in the total liquid assets. P=provisional, R= Revised, CRR is of total demand and liabilities. Excess Reserve = Balances with Bangladesh Bank in local currency - CRR. SLR does not apply to Specialised banks as exempted by the Government. Basic Bank is categorised as a State Owned Commercial Bank according to the decision of Board of Directors of Bangladesh Bank. Total Liquid Assets (In crore Taka) Minimum Required Liquid Assets Bangladesh Development Bank Limited (BDBL) is categorised as a State Owned Bank from March 2015 according to the Departmental Order by Accounts & Budgeting Department of Bangladesh Bank of June 01, Total liquid assets of the scheduled banks stood at Tk crore as of end September 2015 which was Tk crore at the end of June Minimum required liquid assets of the scheduled banks was Tk crore as of end September Sep. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb.15 Mar.15 Apr.15 May 15 Jun. 15 Jul. 15 Aug. 15 Sep. 15 billion taka Liquid assets & required liquidity Liquid assets Minimum Required Liquid Assets Balances with BB (Foreign Currency), 3.48% Distribution of total liquid assets (as of end September 2015) Unencumbered approved securities, 72.17% Scheduled banks holding of liquid assets as of end September 2015 in the form of Cash in tills & Balances with Sonali bank, CRR, Excess Reserves, Balances with Bangladesh Bank in Foreign Currency and Un-encumbered approved securities are 4.33 percent, percent, 0.30 percent, 3.48 Excess Reserve (Uninvested Cash), 0.30% CRR, 19.72% Cash in tills+balances with SB, 4.33% percent, and percent respectively of total liquid assets. 6

9 Financial Sector Prices: a) Rate Development 1/: Treasury Bills BGTB BB Bill Reverse Call Repo Money 91-Day 182-Day 364-Day 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year 20-Year 30-Day Repo Rate July August September October November December January February March April May June August September October Source: MPD, DMD Bangladesh Bank. 1/ Weighted average = upto 23 rd November The weighted average yield on 30-Day Bangladesh Bank Bill decreased to 3.87 percent in November (Up to 23), 2015 compared to that of the previous month. The weighted average yield on 91-Day, 182- Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills decreased to 2.86 percent, 3.66 percent and 4.06 percent respectively in November (Up to 23), 2015 compared to those of the previous month due to lower government borrowing from the banking system. The weighted averages yield on 2-Year BGTB, 5- Year BGTB and 10-Year BGTB decreased to 4.19 percent, 5.08 percent and 6.55 percent respectively in November (Up to 23 ), 2015 from the corresponding yield of the earlier month. W.Ave. yield in percentage Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Yield on Treasury Bills 91-Day 182-Day 364-Day Feb. 15 Mar. 15 Apr. 15 May15 Jun.15 Jul.15 Aug.15 Sep.15 Oct.15 Nov.15 W. average rate in percentage Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Repo, Reverse Repo & Call Money Rate Jan. 15 Repo Reverse Call Money Rate Feb. 15 Mar. 15 Apr. 15 u The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank market decreased and stood at 3.89 percent in November (Up to 23), 2015 from the rate of the previous month. May15 Jun.15 Jul.15 Aug.15 Sep.15 Oct.15 Nov.15 7

10 b) Rate Spread: Rate on Advances Rate on Deposits Spread July August September Rate on Advances Rate on Deposits Spread August September Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. The spread between the weighted average advances and the deposit rates of all banks increased to 4.82 percent in September, 2015 which was 4.77 percent in August, The spread between advances and deposit rate of all banks excluding SME increased to 4.54 percent in September, 2015 from 4.48 percent in August, The spread of NBFIs remained the same at 4.11 percent in September 2015 as that of August However, the spread of all banks in the service sector decreased to 4.70 percent in September, 2015 from 5.22 percent in August Rate on Advances Rate on Deposits Spread Rate on Advances Rate on Deposits Spread Rate on Advances Rate on Spread Deposits October November December January February March April May June Banks Sector-wise break down of Rate Spread SME Only Agriculture Large Industries Services Excluding SME July Rate on Advance Rate on Deposits Spread Rate on Advances NBFI Rate on Deposits Spread W. Ave. rate in percentage Excluding SME NBFI Banks Spread of Advances & Deposit Rate Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 Apr. 15 May 15 Jun. 15 Jul. 15 Aug. 15 Sep. 15 W. Ave. rate in percentage SME Only Agriculture Large Industries Services Sector-wise breakdown of interest rate spread Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 Apr. 15 May 15 Jun. 15 Jul. 15 Aug. 15 Sep. 15 8

11 6. Capital market developments Annual capital market developments (DSE) Enlisted issues (In crore taka) General Index / Calender (Incl. Mutual Issued Capital Market Turnover during DSE Year Funds/Deb.) and Debentures Capitalisation the Year Broad Index The DSE Broad Index (DSEX) at the end of October 2015 stood lower at compared to the index of at the end of September Total market capitalization of all shares and debentures of the listed securities at the end of October 2015 also stands lower at Tk crore from Tk crore at the end of September Monthly capital market developments(dse) Enlisted issues (In crore taka) DSE End Month (Incl. Mutual Issued capital Market Turnover during Broad Index Funds/Deb.) and debentures capitalisation the month (DSEX) October, November, December, January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, Source : Dhaka Stock Exchange Trends in market Capitalisation and Indices of DSE billion taka Oct.14 Nov.14 Dec.14 Capitalisation Jan.15 Feb.15 Mar.15 Apr.15 May15 DSEX Jun.15 Jul.15 Aug.15 Sep.15 Oct DSEX

12 7. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit a. Agricultural credit Month (In crore taka) Disbursement Recovery Disbursement Recovery July August September July-September (+14.18) (-4.07) (+0.57) (+8.61) b. Non-farm rural credit (In crore taka) Month Disbursement Recovery Disbursement Recovery July August September July-September (+40.45) (-6.61) (-34.04) (-19.31) Jun. May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. Jul. Agricultural credit disbursement Programmed level set for disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit for FY16 is Tk crore. The disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit increased by percent and percent respectively during July-September, 2015 compared to that of July-September, The banks extended a total of Tk billion to both sectors. Both agriculture and non-farm rural sector recorded a fall in recovery by 4.07 percent and 6.61 percent respectively during July-September, 2015 compared to the same period of the preceding year. Overdue as a percentage of outstanding loans stood at percent at the end of September, 2015 compared to percent of September, Month Overdue and outstanding (In crore taka) overdue outstanding overdue as % overdue as % overdue outstanding of outstanding of outstanding September (-9.60) (+6.63) (+1.74) (-4.03) Source: Agricultural Credit & Financial Inclusion Department. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. 10 In crore taka Jul. 300 Non-farm rural credit disbursement Aug. Sep. 600 Oct. 900 Nov. Dec In crore taka Jan Feb. Mar Apr May Jun. 2400

13 Yearly Quarterly 8. a) Industrial term loans (Tk. in crore) Disbursement Recovery Period LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total FY FY FY July-September, October-December, January-March, April-June, FY July-September, October-December, January-March, April-June, Overdue and Outstanding (Tk. in crore) Overdue Outstanding LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total June, (+9.66) (+20.90) (+15.81) (+12.03) (+11.84) Source: SME & Special Programmes Department. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate overdue as % of outstanding. LSI=Large Scale Industries, MSI=Medium Scale Industries, SSCI= Small Scale & Cottage Industries. b) Outstanding position of SME loans The total SME loans by banks and non-bank financial institutions increased by Tk crore or percent and stood at Tk crore at the end of June, 2015 as compared with Tk crore at the end of June, The increase of institution-wise SME loans at the end of June, 2015 are percent in state-owned banks, percent in private banks and percent in non-bank financial institutions as compared to that of June, Specialized banks and foreign banks experienced a negative growth of percent and percent respectively at the end of June, 2015 as compared to June, SME loans as percentage of total loans stood at percent at the end of June, 2015 compared with the percent of the same period of the previous year. Target level set for disbursement of SME loans during January-December, 2015 is Tk crore. Disbursement of total industrial term loans during April-June, 2015 was significantly higher by percent and stood at Tk crore as compared to Tk crore during April-June, Recovery of industrial term loans recorded a rise of percent and stood at Tk crore during April-June, 2015 against Tk crore during the same period of the previous fiscal. Outstanding amount of industrial term loans at the end of June, 2015 stood at Tk crore which is higher by percent over the outstanding amount of end June Banks/NBFIs Types of State Owned Private Foreign Specialised Non-Bank Quarter Ending Loans Banks Banks Banks Banks Fin. Ins. Total Loans June, 2014 SME Loans (18.49) (26.43) (9.00) (29.40) (12.00) September, 2014 December, 2014 March, 2015 June, 2015 % changes of SME loans at the end of June, 2015 over June, 2014 Total Loans SME Loans (19.07) (26.55) (8.15) (29.60) (12.12) Total Loans SME Loans (26.58) (27.57) (7.76) (3.44) (11.90) Total Loans SME Loans (22.08) (27.17) (8.33) (4.14) (11.50) Total Loans SME Loans (24.55) (26.29) (7.91) (3.90) (12.34) Category-wise SME loans as % of total SME loan (June, 2015) (Tk. in crore) Source: SME & Special Programmes Department Note : Figures in brackets indicate SME loans as percentage of total loans. Basic Bank is categorized as a State Owned Bank from December 2014 according to the decision of the Board of Directors of Bangladesh Bank on 356th Board Meeting held on December 14, Bangladesh Development Bank Limited (BDBL) is categorised as a State Owned Bank from March 2015 according to the Departmental Order by Accounts & Budgeting Department of Bangladesh Bank of June 01, 2015 Total (23.57) (23.73) (24.55) (23.51) (23.44) Foreign Banks 1.36% The percentage share of SME loans from different categories of financial institutions to total SME loan as of end June, 2015 is shown in the pie chart. Private Banks 75.74% State Owned Banks 18.61% Specialised Banks 0.61% Non-Bank Financial Institutions 3.69% 11

14 9. Industrial Production The general index (average) of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stands lower at in July 2015, recording a decrease of 1.31 percent over that of July Indices that recorded an increase in July 2015 compared to July 2014 are: basic metals (57.66%), non-metalic mineral products (34.27%), chemicals and chemical products (32.84%), fabricated metal products except machinery (21.80%) and food products (15.56%). On the other hand, there is some decrease in indices of tobacco products ( %), wearing apparel ( %), leather and related products (-7.33%), pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemical (-5.53%) and textile (-4.38%). Indices Quantum Index of Medium and Large-Scale Manufacturing Industry (Base: =100) Index Average Index Growth Major Industry Group Weight Jul-14 Jul-15 FY'14 FY'15 Jul-15 FY'15 General % % 13.43% Wearing apparel 34.84% % 3.77% Textile 14.07% % % Food products 10.84% % 40.98% Pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemical 8.23% % 56.82% Non-metalic mineral products 7.12% % 27.14% Leather and related products 4.40% % -3.87% Chemicals and chemical products 3.67% % -3.64% Basic metals 3.15% % 24.58% Tobacco products 2.92% % -1.52% Fabricated metal products except machinery 2.32% % 21.80% Others* 8.44% % 15.52% Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, *Others includes reproduction of recorded media,rubber and plastic products,coke and refined petroleum products,furniture,electrical equipment, other transport equipment,beverages,wood and products of wood and cork, paper and paper products,machinery and equipment n.e.c, computer, electronic and optical products and motor vehicles,trailers and semi trailers. Indicies of Others are calculated from BBS data. Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industries (Base: =100) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Q3 Q4 Monthly Indices Jul/14 Quantum index of medium & large scale manufacturing industries (Base: =100) Aug/14 Sep/14 Oct/14 Nov/14 Dec/14 The general index of small scale manufacturing industry during the fourth quarter ( April-June) of FY15 increased by 3.71 percent and stood at from the index of during the third quarter of FY15, while it increased by 6.73 percent compared to the same quarter of FY14. Jan/15 Feb/15 Mar/15 Apr/15 May/15 Jun/15 Jul/15

15 10. Exports a) Annual and monthly trends in exports A. Annual exports (US$ million) Export Growth (y- o- y % changes) (+41.49) (+5.99) (+11.22) B. Monthly exports (US$ million) Month July (In Percentage) August September October November December January February March April May June July-June (+3.39) (+11.69) Month Export earnings increased by 4.95 percent in July-October, 2015 compared to the same period of the preceding year and stood at USD10.13 billion. While, export earnings in October 2015 rose by percent (y-o-y) compared to the same period of the previous year. However, export earnings fell by 0.13 percent in October, 2015 compared to the preceding month (September 2014). Export receipts fell short of the strategic target for July-October 2015 by 3.73 percent Export performance: Value Trends Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July August September October July-October (+4.95) (-0.97) Source : Export Promotion Bureau. P=Provisional; R=Rev (Million US$) Note: Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Latest available data on category-wise breakdown of exports are shown in the next page. 13

16 b) Category-wise breakdown of exports (In million USD) Changes during July-October, 2015 Particulars July-October, 2015 July-October, 2014 over July-October, 2014 In absolute amount In percentage Value Value Value Value 1. Raw Jute (In million Kg.) 2. Jute goods (excl.carpet) (In million Kg.) 3. Tea (In million Kg.) 4. Frozen food (In million Kg.) 5. Leather (In million Kg.) 6. Woven garments (In million Pcs.) 7. Knitwear (In million Pcs.) 8. Chemical products (In million Kg.) of which (fertilizer) 9. Agricultural products* (In million Kg.) 10. Engin.& Electric goods Others** TOTAL Source : Export Promotion Bureau --- = Not available. * Includes vegetables, fruits & tobacco. * *Others means residual Due to error in the data recording software of EPB (Export Promotion Bureau), the data of export volume is currently unavailable. Category-wise breakdown of exports shows that during July-October, 2015 exports of woven garments, knitwear, raw jute and engin.& electric goods experienced a positive growth compared to that of the same period of the previous year. On the other hand, exports of frozen food, leather, agricultural products, jute goods (excl.carpet), chemical products and tea experienced a negative growth during July-October, 2015 compared to the same period of the previous year. Category-wise share of total exports (July-October, 2015) Category-wise share of total exports (July-October, 2014) Jute goods (excl.carpet), 0.55% Frozen food, 1.77% Others**, 16.36% Woven garments, 40.16% Jute goods (excl.carpet), 1.04% Frozen food, 2.52% Others**, 16.12% Woven garments, 38.27% Knitwear, 41.17% Knitwear, 42.04% 14

17 11. Imports a) Import payments, import L/C settlement and import LCs opened FY (+0.82) (+2.47) (-7.05) (+8.95) (-2.90) (-4.01) Month P P P July August September October November December January February March April May June July-June (+11.26) (+8.92) (+3.41) (+14.93) (+2.99) (+16.29) Month P P P July August September July-September (-8.53) (+13.68) (+1.32) (+10.92) (-9.75) (+12.81) Source: Statistics Department, Foreign Exchange Operations Department, P = Provisional, R= Revised, NA=Not Available. Note- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. (US$ million) Import payments (c&f) R Import LCs settlement Import LCs opened Import payments during July-September, 2015 decreased by 8.53 percent and stood at USD10.17 billion against USD11.12 billion in July- September, Settlement of import LCs during July-September, 2015 increased by 1.32 percent and stood at USD9.93 billion against USD9.80 billion in July- September, Growth of import payments (y-o-y % changes) FY P FY Fresh opening of import LCs during July- September, 2015 decreased by 9.75 percent and stood at USD9.78 billion compared with USD10.83 billion in July-September, Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 15

18 b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs Latest available sector-wise comparative statement of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs in July-September, 2015 and July-September, 2014 are shown below: (US$ million) Sectors / Commodities The developments of each sector's share in total L/C opening in July-September, 2015 and July-September, 2014 are showing in the following pie-diagrams. Petroleum & petro.products, 5.93% Others, 14.62% July-Sepetmber 2015 July-September 2014 Changes during July-September 2015 over July-September 2014 Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding Fresh LCs Settlement Outstanding opening of LCs LCs at the opening of LCs LCs at the opening of LCs LCs at the end period end period end period A. Consumer goods B. Intermediate goods C. Industrial raw materials D. Capital machinery E. Machinery for misc. inds F. Petroleum & petro.prodts G. Others Total of which back to back Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department(FEOD), Bangladesh Bank. Sectoral Distribution in L/C Opening (July-September 2015) Consumer goods, 11.92% Intermediate goods, 7.51% Petroleum & petro.products, 10.41% Sectoral Distribution in L/C Opening (July-September 2014) Others, 17.49% Consumer goods, 12.39% Intermediate goods, 6.35% Machinery for misc. industry, 10.79% Capital machinery, 8.95% Industrial raw materials, 40.28% Machinery for misc. industry, 8.93% Capital machinery, 7.55% Industrial raw materials, 36.88% Sector-wise detailed break-up of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July- September, 2015 and July-September, 2014 are given in the Appendix C) Projected Data on Opening of Import LCs and Probable Liabilities against back to back LCs of Scheduled Banks (In million USD) Month October'15 November'15 December' October-December, Source: Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank. Opening of import LCs Opening of import LCs and probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs have been projected by the scheduled banks at USD10.58 billion and USD3.78 billion respectively during October-December Probable liabilities of Banks against back to back LCs

19 12. Remittance ` (US$ million) Annual Remittances (+10.24) (+12.60) (-1.61) Month Monthly Remittances July August September October November December January February March April May June July-June (+7.65) (-1.61) Month July August September October July-October (+0.06) (+11.73) Source : Foreign Exchange Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note :- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the same period of the previous year. Remittance receipts increased by 7.90 percent (y-o-y) in October 2015 compared with the same month of the preceding year and by 0.06 percent during July-October, 2015 compared to the same period of the previous fiscal. However, remittances receipts decreased by percent (m-o-m) in October 2015 compared to that of the earlier month. (Million US$) Jul. Aug. Inward Remittances (Monthly) Sep. FY16 Oct. Nov. FY15 Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 13. Foreign exchange holdings abroad A. Outstanding stock at the end of the year B. Outstanding stock at the end of the month (US$ million) (-5.01) (+47.77) (+40.44) Month / Year July August September October November December January February March April May June Month / Year July August September October Source : Accounts & Budgeting Department,Bangladesh Bank. (Million US$) (a) Gross foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank: The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB increased to USD27.06 billion (wit h ACU liability of USD0.89 billion) as of end October 2015 compared to USD26.38 billion (with ACU liability of USD0.43 billion) as of end September (b) Gross foreign exchange balances held abroad by commercial banks: The gross foreign exchange balances held abroad by commercial Banks decreased to USD2.52 billion as of end October 2015 compared to that of USD2.66 billion at the end September However, this was higher than the balance of USD2.04 billion at the end October Sep.14 Oct.14 Nov.14 FX reserves (End month ) Bangladesh Bank Commercial Banks Reserve covers imports Dec.14 Jan.15 Feb.15 Mar.15 Apr.15 May 15 June 15 July 15 Aug. 15 Sep. 15 Oct Reserve covers imports (In Months)

20 Month 14. Foreign Aid (In million USD) Food Project Total Payment Net Food Project Total Payment Net Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid FY P FY R July August September October November December January February March April May June July-June Month FY P FY July August September October July-October Source : Economic Relations Division(ERD), Ministry of Finance. P=Provisional; R = Revised Total foreign aid disbursements in July- October, 2015 decreased by USD0.030 billion or 3.95 percent and stood at USD0.73 billion compared to USD0.77 billion in July-October, However, net receipts of foreign aid were higher and stood at USD0.43 billion in July-October, 2015 compared to that of July-October, (Million USD) Foreign Aid Total Aid Net Aid July-October, 2015 July-October,

21 15. Exchange Rate Movements 2/ : Month At the end of October 2015, Taka depreciated by 0.25 percent against US dollar from its level of end June However, Indian Rupees (INR) depreciated by 2.14 percent against US dollar as of end October 2015 from its level of end June FY FY (Taka per USD) (Taka per USD) BDT against USD FY FY (Rupee per USD) (Rupee per USD) Month Avg. Month End Month Avg. Month End Month End Month End July August September October November December January February March April May June Source : Statistics Department & MPD. Note: 2/ Exchange rate represents the mid-value of buying and selling rates. BDT vs. USD INR vs. USD INR against USD BDT against INR TK. /INR 19