Turbulent times for the global and Australian economies
|
|
- May Beasley
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Turbulent times for the global and Australian economies Presentation to ASA/ASX Investor Hour RMIT University, Melbourne th August Saul Eslake Chief Economist
2 The current global financial crisis stems from the bursting of a credit market bubble From this To this. Cheap and easy money Reduced appetite for risk Distrust of new forms of finance Increased appetite for risk New forms of financial engineering Reduced capacity for leverage Increased capacity for leverage Falling asset prices Rising asset prices Slowing economy
3 For a time, low interest rates and the explosion in sub-prime lending created boom conditions in the US housing market US housing market indicators up to mid- Mortgage interest rates Housing starts 7 % pa Adjustable-rate 7 Mortgage applications - year fixed rate 'Fed funds' (cash) rate Mns (annual rate) 7 Home ownership rate 7 9 Index (Jan-Dec = ) % of households 7 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association of America; US Commerce Department.
4 Once US interest rates began rising, however, borrowers began defaulting and house prices began falling US housing market indicators Mortgage delinquency rates Existing home sales % of mortgages outstanding 9 days or more in arrears Sub-prime. Mns (annual rate). Prime... 7 Existing houses for sale. 7 Existing home prices Mns 7 Jan = Down 9.% from peak 7 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association; US National Association of Realtors; Commerce Department; S&P (the Case-Shiller index).
5 and the housing boom turned into a bust, which is continuing despite sharp cuts in the official cash rate US housing market indicators Mortgage interest rates Housing starts 7 % pa Adjustable-rate 7 Mortgage applications - year fixed rate 'Fed funds' (cash) rate Mns (annual rate) 7 Home ownership rate 7 9 Index (Jan-Dec = ) % of households 7 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association of America; US Commerce Department.
6 The US mortgage market meltdown has prompted a tidal wave of losses and write-downs by banks around the world US mortgage delinquencies Losses announced by major banks since mid-7 Dec- % of mortgages outstanding 9 days or more in arrears Sub-prime Prime 7 ABX index of prices of US mortgage-backed securities Mar- 7 BBB- rated Jun- 7 Sep- 7 Dec- 7 Mar- AAA rated AA rated Jun- Sep- Bank Citigroup Merrill Lynch UBS Wachovia Bank of America HSBC IKB Deutsche Royal Bank of Scotland Washington Mutual Morgan Stanley JP Morgan Chase Wells Fargo Credit Suisse Credit Agricole Lehman Brothers Deutsche Bank HBoS Bayerische Landesbank Total (incl. others not shown above) Total (US$ bn) Sources: US Mortgage Bankers Association; Bloomberg; ANZ Economics & Markets Research.
7 The IMF has estimated that total losses could eventually reach almost US$ trn, nearly half of which would be by banks 7 Potential ultimate losses on unsecuritized loans Potential ultimate mark-tomarket losses on securities Type of loan Outstanding US$bn Estimated losses Type of security Outstanding US$bn Estimated losses Sub-prime Alt-A Prime Commercial real estate Consumer loans Corporate loans Leveraged loans 7 7 ABS CDOs Prime MBS Commercial MBS Consumer ABS High-grade corporate High-yield corporate CLOs 9 Total 7 Total 7 of which, banks - of which, banks - Notes: Alt-A means low-doc or no-doc mortgage loans. ABS = asset-backed securities; CDOs = collateralized debt Obligations; MBS = mortgage-backed securities; CLOs = collateralized loan obligations. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report April, p. ; affirmed in GFSR Market Update July.
8 Financial market stress has continued and affected the money, swap, bond and share markets 7 Banks short-term funding costs Spread between 9- day wholesale rate and cash* (bp) UK US Euro area Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Dec- Banks long-term funding costs Corporate bond yield spreads Spread over gov't bond yields (bp) Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Dec- Share prices UK US Euro area 7 -year swap spread (bp) US UK 9 Dec = US UK Euro area Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Dec- 7 Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Dec- Note: all data shown as -day moving averages. Sources: Bloomberg; Datastream.
9 Banks in the US and the euro area are tightening credit standards 9 US banks Euro area banks Commercial & industrial loans Loans to enterprises Net balance tightening standards (%) Net balance tightening standards (%) Large - Small Mortgage and consumer loans Mortgage and consumer loans Net balance tightening standards (%) Mortgage* Net balance tightening standards (%) House purchase Consumer Consumer * Weighted average of prime & sub-prime after June 7 Sources: US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank surveys of loan officers.
10 Oil prices appear to have peaked for now but are still well above their previous high in inflation-adjusted terms Oil prices US$ per barrel Oil price in 7 dollars Forecast Oil price Note: Oil price is West Texas Intermediate. Source: Thomson Financial Datastream; US Bureau of Labor Statistics; ANZ.
11 Persistently rising oil prices partly reflecting rapid growth in developing country demand, and flatlining in non-opec output Oil consumption Oil production Mn barrels per day OECD economies (-.% pa over past yrs) Mn barrels per day Non-OPEC Other economies (+.% pa over past yrs) OPEC Sources: US Department of Energy; ANZ.
12 The US hasn t experienced consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth (yet) US real GDP growth 7 % change from previous quarter (seas. adj. annualized rate) Note: recession did not feature successive contractions in real GDP Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Shaded area denotes recession as designated by National Bureau of Economic Research.
13 The four key indicators used to delineate recession in the US have not yet turned down sharply as in previous recessions NBER s key recession gauges since Sep 7 cf. previous recessions Real personal income less transfers Industrial production Preceding cycle peak = Since Sep 7 Average of seven recessions since 9 9 Months since preceding cycle peak Preceding cycle peak = Since Sep 7 Average of seven recessions since 9 9 Months since preceding cycle peak Employment Real business sales. Preceding cycle peak =. Preceding cycle peak = Since Sep 7 Average of seven recessions since 9 9 Months since preceding cycle peak Since Sep 7 Average of seven recessions since 9 9 Months since preceding cycle peak Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board; Commerce Department; ANZ Economics & Markets Research.
14 The US non-financial corporate sector isn t under the sort of pressures that typically precipitate recessions US non-financial corporate sector % of GDP Corporate profits Corporate debt-equity ratio Interest cover Ratio of profits before interest & tax to net inteterst payments 9 9 Non-farm stocks-to-sales ratio %. % Note: Shaded areas denote recessions as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Sources: Commerce Department; Federal Reserve Board; ANZ.
15 However US household finances are under considerably greater financial pressure than ever before US household sector finances Household net worth % of annual personal disposable income 9 9 Household debt service ratio 9 Household spending on energy % of personal disposable income (trend) Personal saving rate % Note: Shaded areas denote recessions as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Sources: Commerce Department; Federal Reserve Board; ANZ. - % of personal disposable income (trend) One-off tax rebates
16 Rising exports, aided by a weaker US$, have more than offset the impact on GDP growth of falling housing construction US dollar, exports and housing Exports of goods and services Exports and housing Real % ch from (trend) Cumulative change since Q (US$bn at annual rate) Exports of goods & services (+$bn) Trade-weighted value of US$ March 97 = Residential construction (-$bn) - Jun- Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Sources: Thomson Financial; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; ANZ.
17 European and Japanese economies will be adversely affected by 7 stronger currencies and (in Europe) tighter financial conditions Euro area Japan Composition of real GDP growth Composition of real GDP growth - % pt contrbn to change in real GDP from Real GDP Domestic demand Net exports - - % pt contrbn to change in real GDP from Real GDP Net exports Domestic demand 7 7 Trade-weighted value of euro Trade-weighted value of yen Index Up ~% since late Index Up ~9% since mid Sources: EuroStat; ECB; Japan Economic & Social Research Institute; Bank of Japan.
18 Although higher oil and food prices are pushing up headline inflation, core inflation remains little changed in G7 countries United States Consumer prices Euro area % change from "Headline" % change from "Headline" Ex-food & energy 7 Ex-food & energy 7 Japan United Kingdom % change from "Headline" % change from "Headline" - - Ex-food & energy 7 Ex-food & energy 7 Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Eurostat; OECD.
19 Inflation is rising sharply across Asia partly though far from entirely driven by higher food prices 9 Asian economies consumer prices China Korea Thailand Philippines % change from % change from % change from % change from - Exc. food & oil - Exc. food Exc. food India Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam 7 % change from % change from 'Core' % change from % change from Sources: national statistical agencies; ANZ.
20 Inflation is also rising across other parts of the developing or emerging world Selected other developing economies consumer prices Brazil Turkey South Africa % change from 7 % change from 7 - % change from 7 Chile Saudi Arabia Russia - % change from % change from 7 % change from 7 Sources: national statistical agencies; ANZ.
21 Growth is also slowing in the developing world, although growth rates there will still be strong by historical standards Major developing economies real GDP growth China Other East Asia South Africa % change from % change from % change from India Brazil Russia % change from % change from % change from Sources: national statistical agencies; ANZ.
22 Resources commodity prices are unlikely to rise much further but will remain elevated by historical standards Resource commodity prices Coal US$/tonne Coking Steaming Zinc US /pound Gold US$/oz 7 9 US$/tonne Iron ore US /pound Aluminium US$/barrel Oil Sources: Thomson Financial; ANZ.
23 Australia s national income is continuing to get a huge boost from rising commodity prices Australia s terms of trade (ratio of export to import prices) Real gross domestic income (GDI) and product (GDP) 7 - = % ch. from previous year Real GDI Real GDP Sources: ABS; Budget Paper No., Statement ; ANZ Economics & Markets Research.
24 Australia is now starting to run trade surpluses for only the fourth time in two decades Exports and imports Trade balance $ bn $ bn Imports Trend Exports - - Actual Sources: ABS; ANZ
25 Up until very recently most of the income generated by the commodities boom has been spent Domestic demand vs supply % change from 7 Domestic final demand Domestic supply (GDP + net drawdown of inventories) Sources: ABS; ANZ.
26 After nearly 7 years of continuous economic growth, Australia s economy has run into serious capacity constraints Indicators of spare capacity in the Australian economy Unemployment rate % of the labour force Businesses reporting labour shortages % of businesses nominating 'suitable labour' as a constraint on output 9 9 Capacity utilization rate % Office vacancy rates % 9 9 Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; nabcapital; Property Council of Australia.
27 Australia s underlying inflation rate is now at its highest level since inflation-targeting began 7 Consumer prices % change from 7 "Headline" "Underlying" Reserve Bank forecasts RBA target range No allowance for ETS start-up Note: excludes impact of introduction of GST and major health policy changes. Sources: ABS; RBA.
28 The rise in inflation has been broadly-based, and not solely due to global forces or in resource-rich States Contributions to headline inflation, year to June quarter Headline inflation, resource boom cities vs others % pt contribution to change in CPI % ch. from previous year Other Brisbane, Perth & Darwin Deposit & loan facilities House purchase or rent Energy Food Other Energy "Nontradeable" "Tradeable" Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart & Canberra Food 7 Sources: ABS; ANZ.
29 The upward trend in inflationary expectations has been particularly alarming to the Reserve Bank 9 Household inflation expectations Business selling price expectations 7 % pa % pa Actual Trend Actual Trend 7 7 Sources: Westpac-Melbourne Institute; nab.
30 Australia is exposed to the global credit crunch because of our large external deficit and the way we finance it Current account deficits 7 Financing Australia s current account deficit US$ bn A$ bn - -qtr moving total US$79bn Current account deficit * member of euro area (deficit financed out of Germany's surplus) US Spain* UK Australia Italy* Greece* Turkey France* Romania Portugal Sth Africa India Poland Ireland* NZ Methods of financing Net equity Banks' net borrowing Other net borrowing Other (incl. reserves) Sources: IMF; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ANZ.
31 Australian financial markets have come under the same pressures as their overseas counterparts 7 Banks short-term funding costs 9-day Libor spread over OIS (bp) US Australia Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Dec- Banks long-term funding costs -year swap spread (bp) Australia 7 US Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Dec- 9 Corporate bond yield spreads AA spread over -7 yr gov't bond yields (bp) Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Dec- Dec = Share prices US Australia US Australia 7 Dec- Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun- Dec- Note: all data shown as -day moving averages. Sources: Bloomberg; Datastream.
32 As a result, banks have raised lending rates by more than the increases in the Reserve Bank s official cash rate Australian interest rates % pa bp Standard variable mortgage rate bp bp Cash rate Source: RBA.
33 The credit crunch plus the effect of higher interest rates on credit demand has led to a sharp slowdown in credit growth Credit provided to the Australian private sector Total credit Credit to households % change from % change from Housing 7 Other personal 7 Credit by source Credit to business - - % change from By financial intermediaries Securitized credit % change from 7 7 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.
34 Tighter financial conditions and global uncertainty have contributed to sharp falls in confidence Consumer confidence Business confidence Ratio of optimists to pessimists (%) Net balance of optimists minus pessimists (%) Actual 9 Trend - - Actual Trend Sources: Roy Morgan Research; nab; ANZ
35 Hard data is also increasingly suggesting that the economy is slowing more quickly, perhaps, than expected Retail sales Housing finance commitments % change from Actual Trend - - % change from Actual Trend 7 7 Motor vehicle sales Residential building approvals - % change from Actual Trend - % change from Actual Trend Sources: ABS; ANZ Economics & Markets Research.
36 Australia s housing market has clearly softened but is unlikely to become as dire as America s House prices Housing commencements % change from Australia US s average = Australia US 7 Population growth Mortgage delinquency rates*.... % change from Australia US % of total loans outstanding US Australia. 7 7 * 9 days or more past due. For Australia, securitized mortgages only. Sources: ABS; US Commerce Department; S&P; Mortgage Bankers Association of America.
37 The resource boom States appear to be slowing more markedly than the rest of Australia 7 Retail sales Employment % change from (trend) % change from (trend) Qld, WA & NT Rest of Australia 7 Qld, WA & NT Rest of Australia 7 Housing finance commitments Unemployment rate - - % change from (trend) Qld, WA & NT Rest of Australia 7 7 % (trend) Qld, WA & NT Rest of Australia 7 Sources: ABS; ANZ Economics & Markets Research.
38 Economic growth will be much slower in -9 than in recent years, and the unemployment rate will increase Spending and output Employment and unemployment 7 Real % change from Domestic final demand.... % change from Employment (left scale) % 7. - GDP (output)... Unemployment (right scale) Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics; ANZ.
39 The Reserve Bank has signalled that it will be cutting rates soon probably beginning next month Short-term interest rates % pa 9-day bank bill yield RBA official cash rate 7 9 Yesterday s RBA Board meeting left the cash rate unchanged at 7¼%, but signalled that scope to move towards a less restrictive stance of monetary policy in the period ahead is increasing That probably means that they will cut the cash rate at next month s meeting This earlier-than-expected rate cut likely stems from two considerations the further increase in banks lending rates in July (when the RBA thought no further lift in official rates was needed) the marked slowing in the economy over the past couple of months (perhaps more than they wanted) There will likely be a second rate reduction before year-end (if only to ensure that lending rates do actually fall) Depending on the extent to which inflation begins to decline, rates will fall further during 9 Sources: Thomson Financial; ANZ.
40 The prospect of lower interest rates and signs that commodity prices have peaked imply that the A$ is now heading lower A$ and commodity prices A$ and interest rate spreads. US$ - =. US$ - = A$ vs US$ (left scale) A$ vs US$ (left scale) RBA index of commodity prices in US$ (right scale) Spread between Australian & US 9-day interest rates (right scale) Sources: Datastream; Reserve Bank of Australia; ANZ.
41 After falling % from its peak the share market looks cheap but only if you are confident about the earnings outlook ASX All Ordinaries ASX trailing p/e ratio 7,,,,,,,, Dec 979 =,, Lowest since April 99, 7 7 Sources: ASX; Thomson Financial.
42 Earnings projections are more likely to be revised downwards over the next few months Pre-tax company profits (excludes financials) % change from (-qtr moving average) 9 7 % of GDP (-qtr moving average) Sources: ASX; Thomson Financial.
43 Summary The global credit crunch is continuing and won t end until the US housing market bottoms out, which seems unlikely any time soon The world economy is slowing the US hasn t experienced recession yet, but probably will during the next months some other advanced economies will also fall into recession in the developing world, by contrast, inflation is a bigger risk than recession Australia s economy is also slowing noticeably rapid developing-country growth benefits Australia via its impact on commodity prices but Australia is also exposed to the global credit crunch via our large current account deficit and the way in which it is financed the effect of that exposure has been magnified by the upward trend in Australian interest rates (and oil prices) over the past months The next movement in Australian interest rates will be down with the first rate cut now likely to come as early as next month The A$ has probably peaked against the US$ the US$ may take another leg downwards against major currencies later this year as a US recession becomes more evident but with Australian interest rates and commodity prices having peaked the A$ is now on a downward trend
What s going on in the world economy, and what does it mean for Australia s resources sector?
What s going on in the world economy, and what does it mean for Australia s resources sector? The WA Mining Club Hyatt Regency Hotel, Perth th May Saul Eslake Chief Economist The -9 Budget has been brought
More informationEconomics, interest rates and currencies chart pack
Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Charts prepared for ANZ Senior Management th March Saul Eslake Chief Economist Summary of economic forecasts 7e f 9f World economy Oil prices (US$ per
More informationEconomic influences on the Australian mortgage market
Economic influences on the Australian mortgage market Presentation to Choice Aggregation Services Saul Eslake Chief Economist ANZ Burswood Resort Perth 3 rd October 7 www.anz/com/go/economics Capital city
More informationEconomics, interest rates and currencies chart pack
Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Presentation to ANZ Senior Management 9 th December Saul Eslake Chief Economist Summary of economic forecasts 7 f 9f 1f World economy Oil prices (US$
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationInitial assessment of the Federal Budget
Initial assessment of the 27-8 8 Federal Budget ANZ Budget Night dinner Saul Eslake with the assistance of Riki Polygenis & Amber Rabinov 8 th th May 27 1 The economic and political context 2 World economy
More informationEconomics, interest rates and currencies chart pack. Charts prepared for ANZ Senior Management. April Saul Eslake Chief Economist ANZ Bank
Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Charts prepared for ANZ Senior Management April www.anz/com/go/economics Saul Eslake Chief Economist ANZ Bank Cut-off date for charts: 18 April Summary
More informationProperty Industry Outlook for April 2008
Property Industry Outlook for 28 April 28 Is this the late 198s revisited for property markets? 2 Much talk of Armageddon US in trouble plus Euro area and Japan slowing Interest rates/funding costs have
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationOutlook for the Japanese economy
Outlook for the Japanese economy Presentation to a luncheon for the Queensland-Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry Saul Eslake Chief Economist ANZ Bank www.anz/com/go/economics Brisbane Hilton 3 rd
More informationASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack
ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 E-mail: austera@anz.com Internet: http://www.anz.com/go/economics 1 Major revisions to
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationEmerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class
Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to
More informationMonthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy
MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy December 7 Released on December 7 Outlook for Australia Economic Activity Actual
More informationGlobal growth weakening as some risks materialise
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com
More informationThe global economy and the Fiji dollar
The global economy and the Fiji dollar David de Garis Senior Treasury Economist Fiji, February 25 Today s talk 2 The global economy Outlook for major currencies and interest rates Australia and New Zealand:
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationFinancial Implications of an Ageing Population
Financial Implications of an Ageing Population Presentation to Aged & Community Care Victoria s State Congress and Trade Exhibition Saul Eslake Chief Economist ANZ Flemington Racecourse Melbourne 25 th
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More information> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
More informationMonthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy
MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy March 2018 Released on 22 March 2018 Outlook for Australia 1 Economic Activity
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationRebalancing Economic Themes and Emerging Risks for the Balance of 2016
Rebalancing Economic Themes and Emerging Risks for the Balance of 2016 Page 1 Themes Oil s Not Well A world of cheap petroleum Eastern Anxiety China attempts a difficult transition Growing Prospects Central
More informationMACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
MACRO INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 18 INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND DYNAMIC MARKETS TEAM, MULTI ASSET GROUP GLOBAL SHARES CONSTRAINED BY TRADE WAR FEARS BUT AUSTRALIAN SHARES RELATIVELY RESILIENT 5 Australia -
More informationChallenges for financial institutions today. Summary
7 February 6 Challenges for financial institutions today Notes for remarks by Malcolm D Knight, General Manager of the BIS, at a European Financial Services Roundtable meeting, Zurich, 7 February 6 Summary
More informationFor personal use only
AMYF SERIES QUARTERLY UPDATE 1 OCTOBER 2016 31 DECEMBER 2016 SUMMARY AUSTRALIAN MASTERS YIELD FUND SERIES (AMYF SERIES) HIGHLIGHTS AMYF Series announced the following quarterly dividends and capital returns:
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationThe international environment
The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with
More informationThe Financial Crisis of ? Gerald P. Dwyer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta University of Carlos III, Madrid
The Financial Crisis of 2007-201? Gerald P. Dwyer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta University of Carlos III, Madrid Disclaimer These views are mine and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank
More informationAustralian Economy April Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group
Australian Economy April 2018 Julie Toth Chief Economist Australian Industry Group No recession in 26 years (since 1991) but we re still quite slow and fragile. Real GDP grew by only 2.4% in Q4 of 2017
More informationMonetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Percent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 8 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP
More informationEconomics, interest rates and currencies chart pack. Charts prepared for ANZ Senior Management. 23 rd November 2007
Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Charts prepared for ANZ Senior Management rd November 7 www.anz/com/go/economics Saul Eslake Chief Economist Summary of key economic forecasts 7 8 9
More informationLiquidity Monitor. 1 August Amy Auster Katie Dean Amber Rabinov Jasmine Robinson Economics & Markets Research
Liquidity Monitor 1 August 20 Amy Auster Katie Dean Amber Rabinov Jasmine Robinson Economics & Markets Research 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 The Fed remains committed to shoring up liquidity in the market Daily
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Autumn No. 33 (2017 Q3) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 33 (2017 Q3)
KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Autumn 7 Finalized September 6, 7 No. 33 (7 Q3) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, Galina Potjagailo, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center
More informationGlobal financial market turbulence and the outlook for the Australian economy
Global financial market turbulence and the outlook for the Australian economy Presentation to a series of Agribusiness seminars hosted by ANZ Rural & Regional Banking in conjunction with Field Days Saul
More informationTeetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis?
Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Adrian Cooper CEO & Chief Economist acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Peter Suomi Director petersuomi@oxfordeconomics.com October 2011
More informationEconomic Outlook. Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012.
Economic Outlook Ottawa Chamber of Commerce/ Ottawa Business Journal: Mayor s Breakfast Series Ottawa, Ontario 27 April 2012 Mark Carney Mark Carney Governor Agenda Three global forces The consequences
More informationThe External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
More informationCosa ci riserva il 2008?
Cosa ci riserva il 28? Scenari e previsioni per l anno in corso Keith Wade Capo Economista The US economy today A re-assessment of risk De-leveraging Financial sector Real economy Historical precedents
More informationCapital Markets Update
Capital Markets Update The Forces Transforming Markets November 2007 The Past December 2006 April 2007 The Height of the Market November 2007 Changes in Risk Tolerance Spring 2007 Rating Agencies Tighten
More informationThe Outlook for the Housing Industry in Western Australia
The Outlook for the Housing Industry in Western Australia Dr Harley Dale HIA Chief Economist HIA Industry Outlook Breakfast Perth March 2012 Europe muddles while China rebalances China is looking to rebalance
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 20 November 2014 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationWorld Economic outlook
Frontier s Strategy Note: 01/23/2014 World Economic outlook IMF has just released the World Economic Update on the 21st January 2015 and we are displaying the main points here. Even with the sharp oil
More information2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationThe Outlook for the Housing Industry in Western Australia
The Outlook for the Housing Industry in Western Australia Dr Harley Dale HIA Chief Economist HIA Industry Outlook Breakfast Perth March 2011 Overview Policy measures and directions The global backdrop
More informationEconomic update. Is the Australian economic miracle over?
Economic update Is the Australian economic miracle over? Katie Dean Economist ANZ Bank Sydney 9 March What happened to Australia s miracle economy? Current account deficit now at a record 7.1% of GDP Economic
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationThe Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing
More information2017 Annual Conference. Thursday, 8 June 2017
217 Annual Conference Thursday, 8 June 217 The global markets impact on Australia Thursday, 8 June 217 QIC SLIDES FOR FRONTIER Katrina King 8 th June, 217 GLOBAL INTERACTIONS ARE IMPORTANT The pace of
More informationAustralia: Economic and Financial Outlook
Australia: Economic and Financial Outlook Greg Noonan Head of Business Markets Queensland & Agribusiness 5 June 2015 Australian economy and financial markets continue to be impacted by a large number of
More informationThe First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond
The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond James Bullard President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Global Interdependence Center Shanghai, China January 11, 2010 Any opinions expressed here
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board Sydney 4 December 2018 Members Present Philip Lowe (Governor and Chair), Guy Debelle (Deputy Governor), Mark Barnaba AM, Wendy Craik AM,
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More information> Economic risk and implications for
> Economic risk and implications for financial markets Investment Strategy and Economics Multi Asset Group March 212 Outlook for the year ahead > Budget cutbacks in Europe and US, but global monetary easing,
More informationEconomic and housing outlook for New South Wales. Warwick Temby, Acting Chief Economist HIA Industry Outlook Breakfast Sydney, August 2017
Economic and housing outlook for New South Wales Warwick Temby, Acting Chief Economist HIA Industry Outlook Breakfast Sydney, August 2017 Risks to residential building moving from global to local World
More informationChallenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates
Challenges to the International Monetary System: Rebalancing Currencies, Institutions, and Rates Takatoshi Kato Deputy Managing Director International Monetary Fund September 3, 27 1 9 Growth has been
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationGlobal economy in charts
Global economy in charts Ian Stewart, Debapratim De, Tom Simmons & Peter Ireson Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte, London Summary 1. Global activity easing 2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area 3.
More informationThe Australian Economy and Financial Markets. Chart Pack February 2017
The Australian Economy and Financial Markets Chart Pack February 7 The Australian Economy and Financial Markets Contents Graphs World Economy Australian GDP Growth and Inflation Household Sector Business
More informationGlobal and Australian economic outlook
Economic Research November 2015 Global and Australian economic outlook (Still) the dark side of the boom Stephen Walters Chief Economist Australia and New Zealand 61-2-9003-7980 stephen.b.walters@jpmorgan.com
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2017 Economic overview Further evidence of synchronised global economic improvement was signalled by higher measures of economic activity and company profits, along
More informationMonetary Policy Report 3/11. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Per cent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 7 9 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP
More informationGlobal Economy & the Machine Tool Outlook. Jan 2010 Rhys Herbert
Global Economy & the Machine Tool Outlook Jan 21 Rhys Herbert rherbert@oxfordeconomics.com Which scenario do you favour? Short-term outlook (a) W -shaped cycle Growth initially boosted by inventory rebuild
More informationRisultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari. Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari
Risultati Olimpici per gli investimenti obbligazionari Nicholas Gartside Gestore Investimenti Obbligazionari Stagflation What does it look like? UK growth and inflation % % 8 25 6 4 2-2 -4 Trend growth
More informationThe Outlook for the Australian Residential Sector Presentation to Buildex
The Outlook for the Australian Residential Sector Presentation to Buildex Andrew Harvey HIA Senior Economist October 2010 Presentation Outline The economic backdrop global economy domestic economic outlook
More informationQuarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018
POOLED PENSIONS Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018 Economic overview As the quarter progressed, investors became increasingly concerned about the outlook for the world economy. The perception was
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationRebuilding of the European and US Economy and Japan. Richard C. Koo Chief Economist Nomura Research Institute Tokyo January 2012
Rebuilding of the European and US Economy and Japan Richard C. Koo Chief Economist Nomura Research Institute Tokyo January 212 Exhibit 1. US Housing Prices Are Moving along the Japanese Experience 26 24
More informationMonthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Economic Activity in the Major States
MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Economic Activity in the Major States October 2018 Released at 11AM on 25 October 2018 Economic Activity in the
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationFINANCIAL FORECASTS ECONOMIC RESEARCH. January No. 1. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in 2016?
ECONOMIC RESEARCH January - No. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in? We believe investors will be faced with the following characteristics in euro-zone financial markets
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook The Institute of Strategic and International Studies Kuala Lumpur, November 2012 Mangal Goswami Mangal Goswami Deputy Director IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute Action Needed
More informationWeek in review. Week ending: April 27, 2018
Week ending: April 27, 2018 MAJOR NEWS: Global equity markets were mixed for the week, amid concerns about higher borrowing rates for companies, with U.S. Treasury yields hitting the 3% mark for the first
More informationInvestment Research Team Update
Economic & Market Commentary Market Update February 2015 February was a great month for global stocks! The S&P 500 ( large cap stocks) was up 5.7% and small stocks (Russell 2000) gained 5.9%. The jobs
More informationMonetary Policy Report 3/12. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Key rates and estimated forward rates as at June and October.¹) Percent. January December ²) US Euro area³) UK 9 ) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK. World Economy Winter No. 37 (2017 Q4) KIEL INSTITUTE NO. 37 (2017 Q4)
NO. 7 (7 Q) KIEL INSTITUTE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK World Economy Winter 7 Finalized December, 7 No. 7 (7 Q) Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Philipp Hauber, Stefan Kooths, and Ulrich Stolzenburg Forecasting Center NO. 7 (7
More informationThe Big Picture. Long-Term Trends in Global Infrastructure Investment and Commodity Prices. Warren Hogan. Chief Economist.
The Big Picture Long-Term Trends in Global Infrastructure Investment and Commodity Prices Warren Hogan Chief Economist May 212 Outline Global Infrastructure Spending Trends Catching up for the industrialised
More informationMonetary Policy Report 2/12. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Yields on -year government bonds. Percent. January June Greece (left-hand scale) Germany Spain Italy 8 7 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Source: Thomson Reuters Chart. Developments
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More informationComparison Of GST Rates And Revenue From GST In Selected Asian Countries. Initial Standard Rate (%)
The Impact Of GST It took 1 years from when the Goods and Services Tax (GST) was first mooted in Malaysia to its implementation on April 1,1. The move was announced at Budget 1 to replace the existing
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationThe effects of the financial crisis on developing countries mapping out the issues. By Julian Jessop
The effects of the financial crisis on developing countries mapping out the issues By Julian Jessop 1. Plan of My Talk The outlook for advanced economies. Impact on developing countries. Some losers and
More informationThe Federal Budget 2013/14
The Federal Budget 213/14 14 May 213 Bill Evans Chief Economist 2 Federal budget: $19.4bn deficit in 212/13 4 % of GDP Sources: Treasury, ABS, Westpac Economics Underlying cash balance $bn 4 2 $bn (rhs)
More informationInternational Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
More informationGlobal Outlook and Policy Challenges. Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department
Global Outlook and Policy Challenges Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department February, 29 Global Outlook Has Deteriorated, but Modest Turnaround Anticipated with Policy Stimulus 1 WEO
More informationTHOUGHTS FOR 2018 DECEMBER 2017
FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. NOT TO BE REPRODUCED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL. PLEASE REFER TO ALL RISK DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS DOCUMENT. THOUGHTS FOR 218 DECEMBER 217 > After years of sustained
More informationNational Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria
National Monetary Policy Forum Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 1 April 1 Pretoria In the April 17 MPR Executive summary & overview of the policy stance Overview of the world economy
More informationOur goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling
Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More information