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1 EBA and Authors Copyright Disclaimers: This document/resource is provided solely to members of the Environmental Bankers Association, Inc. (EBA) for informational purposes only. EBA members are authorized to use this document for internal reference or training purposes, but are not authorized to disseminate or publish any portion of the document to non-eba members or the general public without prior written consent from EBA. Non-EBA members are not authorized to use this document/resource for any purpose without the prior written approval of the EBA. Neither the EBA, nor any of its directors, officers, employees or agents, nor any of the Authors makes any representations or warranties, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the completeness, reliability, timeliness, currency, accuracy or usefulness of the information provided herein, or for the applicability of the information provided herein to the facts and circumstances particular to any specific use, including but not limited to information found through any links or references to resources, case studies, projects and/or services referred to within this document/resource. The viewpoints and information provided by the Authors is their personal viewpoints and information, and not the viewpoints or information of the organizations of which they are employed or affiliated. Any action taken based upon the information provided in or through this document/resource is done so strictly at your own risk. Neither the EBA nor any of the Authors shall be liable for any damages of any nature incurred as a result of or in connection with the use of this information. This document/resource and the information herein do not constitute legal or other professional advice or opinion. It is recommended that you seek appropriate legal or other professional advice to determine whether any advice, actions or practices referenced within this document are appropriate or legally correct in your jurisdiction.! Some of the material provided herein has been published with permission of the copyright holder and is not the copyrighted content of the EBA. Where applicable, attribution to the copyright holder has been given herein. No permission is granted to republish any such content without seeking express permission of the copyright holder.

2 LENDING FORECAST: What You Should Be Thinking About Now EBA Conference Tampa January 2017 Copyright 2016, Trepp LLC

3 TODAY S SPEAKERS Dianne Crocker Principal Analyst, EDR Insight Thomas Fink Senior VP, Managing Director, Trepp LLC KC Conway Senior Vice President Credit Risk Management SunTrust Banks, Inc.

4 AGENDA Audience Polling: How do you feel about the market in 2017? The Fink-Conway Show Q&A (aka free strategic planning advice)

5 ! Pluses and Minuses for CRE

6 Positives for CRE Low Treasury rates, tight spreads, and rebounding valuations have allowed many of the sins from the heady days of 2006 and 2007 to be forgiven. 10-year Treasury is 2.4%, rather than 4%, which serves as a driver in the CRE sector High levels of global liquidity for CRE debt and equity have provided a boost as investors continue to hunt for yield Delinquencies and losses have declined steadily over the last several years Lenders haven t forgotten 2008 and 2009

7 Negatives for CRE Markets Liquidity for trophy CRE assets in 24 hour cities has been tremendous in recent years, but has been driven by foreign money. This raises the question: Will the CRE bid remain in place if commodity prices were to re-test their 2016 lows? o o o o On a micro level, we worry about: Suburban office locations, particularly in the northeast and other high tax states Houston office properties considering the size of the energy company layoffs and the amount of space available for sublease there Overbuilding of MF in some locations Shopping malls with exposure to department stores like Macy s, Sears, and J.C. Penney

8 !! The Lending Market

9 ACT 2. Evolution of CRE Lending How has lender market share evolved? What are the repercussions of risk retention? How might the reduction in capital from CMBS impact banks?

10 Lender Market Share Banks have grown since 2010 Share of Annual CRE Originations Sources: Federal Reserve, Trepp LLC

11 Risk Retention Effects on the Lending Market Predicted market share reduction for CMBS, cutting CMBS volume by estimated 50% Increase borrowing costs for CMBS borrower estimates predict basis point increase in borrowing cost Single asset Trophy Property CMBS will be reduced "

12 The Glass Half-Full As competition fades, banks get more favorable pricing opportunities helping grow margins and earnings Banks can pick up market share in a loan category that they are familiar with Banks can theoretically pick the best/safest Credits with the reduced competition particularly in secondary and tertiary markets making for a safer book of business Copyright 2016, Trepp LLC

13 The Glass Half- Empty As sole lenders in certain markets, banks find that there are fewer options to refinance construction and transitional property loans, forcing banks to offer longer duration loans than desired Banks increase shares sharply while some markets are hitting peaks More banks see exposure of CRE as a percentage of risk-based capital exceeding 300% Certain large banks lose revenue opportunities from loan servicing and CMBS issuance Copyright 2016, Trepp LLC

14 Banks with CRE Concentration Largest States using CMBS per capita Bank%with%CRE%Concentra1on Source:%Trepp%Bank%Navigator

15 CRE Concentrations Without CMBS If banks absorb pro rata share of CMBS Bank%with%CRE%Concentra1on Bank%with%new%CRE%Concentra1on Source:%Trepp%Bank%Navigator

16 !! Loan Maturities

17 ACT 3: Loan Maturities

18 CMBS Loans Maturing ($Bln): Pacific $19.7B Mountain $8.0 B Northwest Central $4.4 B Northeast Central $12.7B $5.7 B $24.1B Middle Atlantic New England $11.0B $3.3 B $24.6B South Atlantic Southwest Central Southeast Central Source: Trepp, LLC

19 !! Regional Trends

20 ACT 4. Regional Trends What are the differences in CMBS performance? Where is the strongest job growth driving CRE strength, construction opportunities?

21 U.S. CMBS Delinquency Rates: Significance of Regional Variation Pacific 3.31% Mountain 8.73% Northwest Central 8.26% Northeast Central 8.53% 6.86% New England 3.30% Middle Atlantic 2.24% 8.76% 8.05% South Atlantic Southwest Central Southeast Central Source: Trepp, LLC

22 Best Job-Growth MSAs: Best Job-Producing MSAs since 2009 (BLS & SunTrust) Best Job Producing MSAs post 2009: Note the correlation to the Southeast, Ports & Logistics! 13#of#the#top#25#job.producing MSAs#post#2009#are#located#in the#southeast;######4#are#in#fl,#6 are#in#nc/sc,#&#4#are#in#tx.#atl ranks#6/15 AND# 25#of#the#Top#30#MSAs#in#Job#Gr. as#a#%#change#since#2009#are also#among#the Top#30#in#Absolute#Job#Gr! Note: The#correlaMon#of#job#growth#to#MSAs with#sea#ports#(green#arrows),#inland Ports#(Blue#arrows),#and#Supply.Chain strength#(land.sea.air/e.commerce).#it#is not#coincidental#that#the#growth#is####fl, TX,#NC/SC#TN#&#GA! 21

23 !! The Elephant in the Room Act 5

24 ACT 5: The Circus Comes to Town What does The Trump Effect mean for the CRE lending market? Infrastructure Investment? Dodd-Frank rollback? Interest rates? 1031 Exchange? Interest Deduction? Regulatory Relief?

25 ! Looking Forward

26 K.C. s Views until TRUMP Tweets the Revisions The$2017$U.S.$Economy$will$remain$rated& E &for erra,c.$$forecas9ng$2017$is$challenging.$$ GDP$had$clearly$downshi?ed$to$something$<2%$in 2016$ $but"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ As goes$the$na9onal$economy,$the$se$$&$atlanta economies$will$go$much$beker! Housing$and$Personal$Consump9on$Spending$are$the 2$components$buoying$the$$economy.""If"the"FED"gets interest"rates"wrong,"the"u.s."could"slip"quickly"into recession."" The$FED$&$interest$rates$ $another$one$&$done$like Dec$2016?$Yellen$2018?$FED$Gov$appts? Job$growth$is$NOT$holding$up$at$+200k$per$month.

27 Steps Lenders Should Take Where is the weak link in the CRE environmental and appraisal process? What should lenders be doing? 26

28 KC s Top Appraisal Disruptors 1.##HVCRE# ## Comple0on#Value #for#going:concern#cre##(hotel,#restaurant,#nursing#home) 2.####Evalua0ons#and#confusion#from#SR#16:5#(use#of#unlicensed#appraisers). 3.##Absence#of#Interagency#Environmental#Guidance# # As:Is #value#and#remedia0on? 4.#Large#Bank#syndica0ons#to#smaller#bankss# #Appraisal#quality#is#not:good#by#Nat l#firms. 5.#ReFi#Risk# #All#assume#Cap#Rates#stay#compressed#while##interest#rates#rise AND#1#more# #Neither#banks#nor#regulators#are#emphasizing#appraisal#reviews!

29 What Steps Should Lenders Take? 1. Don t lend on promises, lend on solid cash flow. 2. Ask the right questions Retail / industrial are converging: buy wholesale / sell retail business model is fading Industrial and manufacturing: what s the biz climate of the area?