ASIA SHIPPING OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 OCTOBER 2015 ASIA SHIPPING OUTLOOK Market Fundamentals: A Look at Trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe Trades Mario O. Moreno, Senior Economist Mario.Moreno@ihs.com

2 FE Asia US trade outperforming FE Asia Europe Trade Divergent paths in the trans-pacific trade: US imports from FE Asia (FE Asia-US) outperforming US exports to FE Asia (US-FE Asia). The FE Asia US trade outperforms FE Asia Europe trade, reflecting stronger economic conditions in the US. Solid gains in US housing market will support import trade growth (e.g. furniture, miscellaneous plastic products, hardware, etc.) from FE Asia. SE Asia, Indian Subcontinent gaining market share in FE Asia US Trade at the expense of China, NE Asian advanced economies. US FE Asia trade falling but expect rebound in as demand improves, dollar starts multi-year descent. FE Asia-Europe trade declining but expect rebound in 2016 as Eurozone growth will improve slightly, aided by monetary stimulus, currency depreciation, and pent-up demand. 2

3 Trans-Pacific Trade 3

4 Divergent Paths in the Trans-Pacific Trade 4

5 FE Asia US Container Trade in Upward Trend JOC TPM Asia / October all time high: 14.7 mil. TEUs (+6.3% growth). US Real GDP growth picked up to 3.9% in Q2, led by accelerations in consumer spending, building construction. Home sales recovering at solid pace on low interest rates, improving labor market FE Asia US Trade Millions of TEUs and Annual Growth Source: JOC Insights f TEUs (LHS) % Change (RHS) 10% 5% 0% Housing: New construction improving on increased demand, lower supply side price pressures Strong dollar. 5

6 Positive Outlook for FE Asia US Container Trade US economy to grow % in up from 2.5% in 2015, led by solid growth in consumer spending, residential construction Housing starts (Mil. Units): 1.1 in 2015; 1.3 in 2016; 1.5 in Exist. House sales (Mil. Units): 5.3 in 2015; 5.6 in 2016; 5.7 in Improving consumer spending on stronger disposable income growth, lower energy prices, housing recovery. Favorable exchange rates. 5.4% 1.5% FE Asia US Trade: Growth Forecast 7.2% 5.8% 6.3% 4.9% 3.0% FE Asia Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook SE Asia 15.6% 11.4% 10.2% 7.5% 7.6% f 2016f 2017f 6

7 Lower productions costs will continue to boost SE Asia, ISC market shares in FE Asia US Trade over Market Shares in the FE Asia US Trade 64% 64% 64% 65% 63% JOC TPM Asia / October 2015 China NE Asia exc. China SE Asia Indian Sub 18% 18% 17% 16% 15% 13% 13% 13% 14% 15% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% f f 7

8 US FE Asia Container Trade in Downward Trend Trade expected to fall in 2015 for 2 nd straight year, hit 5-year low at 6.4 mil. TEUs. Slowing economies in Asia- Pacific region. US exports to top-market China down 10% in 1H2015. Unfavorable exchange rates for US exporters. West Coast port disruption effects US FE Asia Trade Millions of TEUs and Annual Growth f TEUs (LHS) Source: JOC Insights % Change (RHS) 10% 0% -10% 8

9 US FE Asia Container Trade Expected to Moderately Rebound Over Asia-Pacific region continues to lead global growth, forecast to expand considerably faster than the world average. As global demand picks up, China will boost imports of inputs. The dollar begins a slow multiyear descent in 2H % US FE Asia Trade: Growth Forecast 3.2% FE Asia Source: JOC Container Shipping Outlook 5.4% 6.5% -0.6% -3.0% -3.0% f 2016f 2017f 9

10 Asia-Europe Trade 10

11 Asia-Europe Trade in Downward Trend 11

12 Asia-Europe Container Trade Expected to Rebound in 2016 Asia-Europe Trade: Forecast 5.2% 7.3% 6.6% Up 6.6% in 2016 to total approx million TEUs. Eurozone growth will improve slightly, aided by monetary stimulus, pent-up demand. Yen to depreciate against euro during % -3.4% Source: CTS; JOC Insights f 2016f 12

13 Summary The FE Asia US trade outperforming the US FE Asia trade as US economy slowly improves while Asia-Pacific region struggles. Source shifting expanding, favoring lowcost producers in SE Asia, ISC at the expense of China and advanced economies in NE Asia. US FE Asia trade to rebound over as demand improves, and dollar expected to start multiyear descent in 2H16. Asia-Europe trade will contract this year but expect rebound in 2016 as slightly better economic conditions in Europe and favorable exchange rates boost demand. 13

14 Contact us Thank You! IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER 2015 IHS. All rights reserved. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.