FLASH REPORT 2Q 2017

Transcription

1 VALUATION RATES AND METRICS FLASH REPORT 2Q 2017

2 LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT July 2017 Dear Subscribers, Situs RERC is pleased to present the second quarter 2017 Situs RERC Flash Report. This report provides a preliminary look at Situs RERC s institutional investment survey data. According to preliminary data, Situs RERC s institutional investors were increasingly concerned about U.S. and global economic and political conditions during the second quarter of Several survey respondents commented about the potential impacts that tax, trade, financial and healthcare reform will have on CRE and the greater economy. Yet the details of fiscal policies are mostly unknown as the timetable and details of such efforts are uncertain. The Dow showed steady growth throughout the second quarter and ended the quarter on a high note, despite uncertainty in Washington, D.C. But many analysts are concerned that stocks are overvalued and are due for a correction. While overall, the economy appears to be doing fairly well, as evidenced by the fact that the Federal Reserve Board raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points during the June 14, 2017, meeting, there are some conflicting economic indicators. In particular, while employment appears to be at or near full capacity, inflation remains stubbornly low. While the economy continues to grow, albeit at a subdued pace, our preliminary Situs RERC institutional investment survey data indicated that cap rates for all property sectors either increased or were flat in second quarter 2017 compared to first quarter 2017; we are reaching the peak of the CRE cycle. Still, CRE is still considered to be an attractive investment alternative because of the solid fundamentals in the market. The income component of total returns is expected to be steady, which offers investors a safe haven in this uncertain environment. On a personal note, I would like to thank our survey respondents for their dedication to the research process. Without your commitment and willingness to share your insights, we would be unable to provide this report. Please note that the Situs RERC Flash Report contains preliminary data; our complete second quarter 2017 report will be available in mid-august Sincerely, Ken Riggs President Situs RERC riggs@rerc.com

3 Situs RERC Required Real Estate Yields vis-à-vis Capital Market Returns 2Q Q Q Q Q Q 201 Real Estate Yield Moody s Baa Corporate Moody s Aaa Corporate Year Treasurys Yield Spread (Percentage Points) Moody s Baa Corporate Moody s Aaa Corporate Year Treasurys Sources: 2Q 2017 Situs RERC Investment Survey, preliminary data; Federal Reserve, Moody s, Moody's Seasoned Corporate Bond Yield, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The preliminary second quarter 2017 real estate yield held constant from first quarter 2017 while Moody s Baa and Aaa corporate bonds, along with the 10-year Treasury, saw rates decrease slightly on a quarterly basis. This dynamic is likely what has led to increasing yield spreads. These increasing spreads between the real estate yield and corporate bonds or the 10-year Treasury give leverage to the strength in CRE relative to similar securities. It is important to note that a single quarter does not represent a trend and whether these spreads hold steady or increase over coming periods will help determine CRE s relative strength as an investment. Situs RERC 10-Year Treasury Forecast Percent Yr Treasury Downside Scenario Base Case Scenario Upside Scenario Situs RERC s base case scenario for our 10-year Treasury forecast has rates increasing steadily throughout 2017 and The base case assumes that inflation remains under control, the FOMC raises rates two to three times and begins unwinding their balance sheets toward the end of 2017, and the economy continues on a positive trend Q 2014 Q 2015 Q 2016 Q 2017 Q 2018 Q 2019 Note: Readings displayed are quarterly averages. Shaded area indicates forecast. Sources: Federal Reserve, compiled and forecasted by Situs RERC, July The base case scenario sees the 10-year Treasury rate increasing from approximately 2.25 percent in second quarter 2017 to approximately.00 percent by fourth quarter The rate then begins to fall as economic constraints begin to weigh on growth. For CRE overall, Situs RERC s respondents indicated that values were generally supported by prices, according to the preliminary second quarter 2017 value vs. price rating. Among the individual property sectors, ratings indicated that the industrial sector offered the most value relative to price, while the retail, apartment and hotel sectors were slightly overpriced relative to value during second quarter. Situs RERC s respondents found greater return in CRE overall during second quarter 2017 compared to the previous quarter. Preliminary return vs. risk ratings for CRE overall suggested that return and risk were at equilibrium, which was also true for the industrial and office sector ratings. In contrast, the ratings for the retail, apartment and hotel sectors indicated that risk outweighed return. Situs RERC Overall Value vs. Price and Return vs. Risk Ratings Rating Q 2006 Return vs. Risk Value vs. Price 2Q Q 2008 Source: Situs RERC, 2Q 2017 preliminary. 2Q Q 201 2Q

4 Situs RERC Investment Conditions and Current Quarter Capitalization Techniques Investment Conditions 1 Income Approach 2 Cap Rate 2Q Q Q Q 2015 Direct Cap. DCF Before Reserves After Reserves Office - CBD % 9% Office - Suburban % 9% Industrial - Warehouse % 25% Industrial - R&D % 22% Industrial - Flex % 25% Retail - Regional Mall % 14% Retail - Power Center % 1% Retail - Neighborhood % 11% Apartment % 82% Student Housing % 80% Hotel % 80% 1 Investment Conditions rated on a scale of 1 = poor to 10 = excellent. 2 Income Approach rated on a scale of 1 = least relevant to 10 = most relevant. Percent of respondents who apply the cap rate before or after reserves. See the Scope and Methodology section in the full Situs RERC Real Estate Report for more information. Source: 2Q 2017 Situs RERC Investment Survey, preliminary data. Preliminary investment conditions ratings decreased for all of the property sectors during second quarter Investment conditions for the industrial warehouse sector remained the best, while investment conditions were considered below average for the suburban office and regional retail mall sectors according to Situs RERC s institutional respondents. Situs RERC Expected Leasing Assumptions, Marketing & Holding and Investment Recommendations Renewal Prob. Down Time (months) Vacancy Loss 1 Marketing Time (months) Holding Period (years) Office - CBD Office - Suburban Industrial - Warehouse Industrial - R&D Industrial - Flex Retail - Regional Mall Retail - Power Center Retail - Neighborhood Apartment Student Housing Hotel N/A N/A N/A All Types Vacancy loss reflects a typical holding period, not the current level. Source: 2Q 2017 Situs RERC Investment Survey, preliminary data. Situs RERC s respondents indicated that for the CBD office, the industrial R&D and flex sectors, the regional retail mall and neighborhood/ community sectors, and the hotel sector, holding onto these investments was the most ideal option during second quarter Respondents recommended either buying or holding onto the suburban office and student housing properties. Buying was considered the best option for the industrial warehouse sector, and selling was considered the best option for the retail power center sector. For the apartment sector, respondents considered selling or holding as equally good investment options. Buy Sell Hold

5 Situs RERC Real Estate Investment Criteria 1 by Property Type 2Q 2017 Office Industrial Retail CBD Suburban Warehouse R&D Flex Regional Mall Power Center Neigh/ Comm Apartment Student Housing Hotel Pre-Tax Yield Rate (IRR) Range Average BPS Change Going-In Cap Rate Range Average BPS Change Terminal Cap Rate Range Average BPS Change Rental Growth Rate Range Average BPS Change Expense Growth Rate Range Average BPS Change This survey was conducted in April, May and June 2017 and reflects expected returns for second quarter 2017 investments. 2 Ranges and other data reflect the central tendencies of respondents; unusually high and low responses have been eliminated. The change in basis points (BPS) reflects the rate difference (+/-) between the current rate and the rate published in the prior quarter s issue of the Situs RERC Real Estate Report. Source: 2Q 2017 Situs RERC Investment Survey, preliminary data. Please note: The data reflect the preliminary results as compiled by Situs RERC. Our final numbers, which will be published in the full 2Q 2017 Situs RERC Real Estate Report, may be significantly different. Preliminary required going-in cap rates increased slightly or remained flat for all of the property sectors during second quarter 2017 compared to last quarter, per Situs RERC s institutional investment survey respondents. The rising cap rates seem to signify that the market is cooling down. The shrinking spread between Situs RERC s required pre-tax yield rates and required going-in cap rates during second quarter also implies diminishing growth expectations.

6 DISCLAIMERS This disclaimer applies to this publication and the verbal or written comments of any person presenting it. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or incorporated into any information retrieval system, without the written permission of RERC, LLC. This publication is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal or accounting services. The publisher advises that no statement in this publication is to be construed as a recommendation to make any real estate investment or to buy or sell any security or as investment advice. The examples contained in this publication are intended for use as background on the real estate industry as a whole, not as support for any particular real estate investment or security. Forward-looking statements (including estimates, opinions or expectations about any future event) contained in this publication are based on a variety of estimates and assumptions made by RERC, LLC. These estimates and assumptions are inherently uncertain and are subject to numerous business, competitive, financial, geopolitical, industry, market and regulatory risks that are outside of RERC, LLC s control. There can be no assurance that any such estimates and/or assumptions will prove accurate, and actual results may differ materially. The inclusion of any forward-looking statements herein should not be regarded as an indication that RERC, LLC considers such forward-looking statement to be a reliable prediction of future events and no forward-looking statement should be relied upon as such. This publication does not purport to be complete on any topic addressed. The information included in this publication is provided to you as of the dates indicated and RERC, LLC does not intend to update the information after this publication is distributed. Certain information contained in this publication includes calculations and/or figures that have been provided by third parties, and/or prepared internally and have not been audited or verified. This publication may contain the subjective views of certain RERC, LLC personnel and may not necessarily reflect the collective view of Situs or certain Situs business units. Although this publication uses only sources that it deems reliable and accurate, RERC, LLC does not warrant the accuracy of the information contained herein and does not have a duty to update it. In all cases for which historical performance is presented, please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be relied upon as such. Certain logos, trade names, trademarks and copyrights included in this publication are strictly for identification and informational purposes only. Such logos, trade names, trademarks and copyrights may be owned by companies or persons not affiliated with RERC, LLC. RERC, LLC makes no claim that any such company or person has sponsored or endorsed the use of any such logo, trade name, trademark and/or copyright.