China s GDP slows out of double-digit growth
|
|
- Sibyl Beatrice Maxwell
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 China s GDP slows out of double-digit growth Percent change, annual Source: International Monetary Fund.
2 China s growth forecasts slows among Asian countries Percent change in real GDP Percent change, annual South Korea Thailand Hong Kong SAR 214 Forecast Malaysia Indonesia India China Source: International Monetary Fund.
3 Consumption low in China compared to developing countries Final consumption expenditure Percent of GDP China Malaysia Russian Federation India Mexico South Africa Brazil Philippines Source: The World Bank.
4 China s GDP per capita growth is still on top Percent change, annual 2 15 China 1 5 Thailand Malaysia -5 Japan United States Source: The World Bank.
5 China s government expenditures and revenue Percent change, annual 35 3 Revenue Expenditure Source: Quandl.
6 Energy use outstrips domestic production Percent change, annual 15 1 Use 5 Production Imports (percent of energy use) Source: The World Bank.
7 China continues to increase total savings Gross savings per GDP Percent of GDP 6 5 China 4 3 Japan 2 1 United States Source: The World Bank.
8 China s inward and outward foreign investment flows Percent of GDP Inflows 2 1 Outflows Source: The World Bank.
9 China's foreign direct investment net inflows Percent of GDP Source: The World Bank.
10 China moves away from agriculture into services Percent of GDP 1 Agriculture Industry Services Source: The World Bank.
11 Migration from China s rural areas to urban Share of population Percent 1 Urban Population Rural Population Source: The World Bank.
12 All of China s tech exports are growing Tech exports from China to the world US$ billions 7 6 HiTech LoTech 2 1 MHTech MLTech Source: STAN bilateral trade database. Notes: MLTech, and MHTech refer to Medium Low and Medium High Tech.
13 U.S. patents issued to China increase Patents 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
14 Chinese internet users and internet penetration Millions Number of internet users (left) Internet penetration (right) Percent Sources: China Internet Network Information Center, 33 rd Statistical Report on Internet Development in China.
15 Mobile internet is a main facilitator of internet access Millions Number of mobile internet users (left) Mobile internet users to total internet users Percent Sources: China Internet Network Information Center, 33 rd Statistical Report on Internet Development in China.
16 China s internet users outnumber the entire U.S. population China internet users: 618 million U.S. population: 318 million Source: China Internet Network Information Center, 33 rd Statistical Report on Internet Development in China, U.S. Census Bureau.
17 China s e-commerce is dominated by large marketplaces Percent Marketplace Independent merchants China U.S. Sources: iresearch, emarketer, McKinsey.
18 Enterprises that carry out online sales in key industries Percent Manufacturing Wholesale and retail Overall IT, computers, software Construction Transportation, storage, postal Leasing and commercial service Resident service and other services Real estate Sources: China Internet Network Information Center, 33 rd Statistical Report on Internet Development in China.
19 China was already the second-largest e-tailing market in 211 US$ billions Source: Euromonitor, Forrester, iresearch, EIU, McKinsey.
20 Composition of China s e-commerce market Market share as of 213 B2B: large enterprises 26% B2B: SMEs 52% Online shopping 19% Online travel 2% O2O 1% Source: iresearch.
21 213 global box office All films US$ billion U.S./Canada International $32.6 $34.7 $35.9 $29.4 $ (64%) (66%) (69%) (69%) (7%) Rank Country Money spent on all films (US$ billions) 1 China $3.6 2 Japan $2.4 3 U.K. $1.7 4 France $1.6 5 India $1.5 6 South Korea $1.4 7 Russia $1.4 8 Germany $1.3 9 Australia $1.1 1 Mexico $.9 Source: Motion Picture Association of America.
22 VC and PE investment in China s healthcare industry US$ billions Amount of investment (left) Number of deals (right) Count Source: Zero2ipo.
23 Premier s NPC Lianghui speech and 214 targets Key targets GDP growth ~7.5% ~7.5% CPI inflation ~3.5% ~3.5% Household income growth In line with real GDP growth In line with real GDP growth Job creation >1 million >9 million Balance of payment Basically balanced Further improvement Budget deficit CNY 1.35 trillion (central govt 95 billion, local govt 4 billion), ~2.1% of GDP CNY 1.2 trillion (central govt 85 billion, local govt 35 billion), ~ 2% of GDP M2 growth ~13% ~13% Sources: Standard Chartered, Milken Institute.
24 Premier s NPC Lianghui speech and 214 targets Key targets Credit growth Maintain appropriate growth, reasonably increase total social financing Maintain appropriate growth, reasonably increase total social financing Farmland area 1.8 billion mu red line 1.8 billion mu red line Social housing Start 7 million new units; renovate 2.6 million houses in rural areas Complete 4.7 million units and start 6.3 million new units in cities; continue renovation in rural areas Sources: Standard Chartered, Milken Institute.
25 Premier s NPC Lianghui speech and 214 targets Key targets Fiscal policy stance Proactive fiscal policy (limited detail provided in the speech) Proactive fiscal policy: 1. Maintain stable growth, advance reforms, improve peoples livelihood 2. Expand VAT coverage, reduce tax burden 3. Restrict general expenses 4. Support social housing, infrastructure, and social projects 5. Better manage local government debt; properly deal with financing for existing investment projects and debt repayment. Sources: Standard Chartered, Milken Institute.
26 Premier s NPC Lianghui speech and 214 targets Key targets Monetary policy stance Prudent monetary policy: 1. Balanced demand and supply, stable financial environment 2. Perfect macro-prudential framework, appropriate growth in M2 and credit 3. Enhance coordination with fiscal, industrial, and investment policies 4. Fine-tune policy to ensure stable economic growth Prudent monetary policy: 1. Perfect macro-prudential framework, appropriate growth in M2 and credit 2. Support agricultural SMEs, new strategic industries, and key national projects 3. Prevent systematic or regional financial crisis, improve supervision and sustainability Sources: Standard Chartered, Milken Institute.
27 China healthcare expenditures shift from private to public Percent of GDP 4 3 Private Public Source: The World Bank.
28 Difference between a clear and smoggy day in Beijing Source: The Atlantic, China Air Daily.
29 Third Plenum decisions Social reform One Child Policy Reform through Labor System If one parent is an only child, a couple can now have two kids Dismantling a form of imprisonment without trial Source: Milken Institute.
30 Third Plenum decisions Ministry of Finance mandates Oversee open and transparent budgets Create local government debt-management framework Sort out transfer system Reform VAT and resource taxes Accelerate property tax legislation Source: Milken Institute.
31 Third Plenum decisions Financial sector reforms Accelerated interest rate liberalization Further opening up of capital account Privately held banks Greater freedom for companies to issue foreign debt Source: Milken Institute.
32 Biggest gains and losses in total wealth Change in total wealth, US$ trillions U.S. China Germany U.K. Mexico India Russia Brazil Japan Sources: Davies, Lluberas, Shorrocks, Credit Suisse. Note: Net worth or wealth is defined as the value of financial assets plus real assets (principally housing) owned by households, less their debts.
33 Wealth growth rates Since 2 Percent, China India Latin America Africa World Asia Source: Davies, Lluberas, Shorrocks, Credit Suisse. Note: Net worth or wealth is defined as the value of financial assets plus real assets (principally housing) owned by households, less their debts.
34 China s wealth distribution relative to the world Percent China World <US$ 1, US$ 1,-1, US$ 1, - 1m >US$ 1m Source: Davies, Lluberas, Shorrocks, Credit Suisse. Note: Net worth or wealth is defined as the value of financial assets plus real assets (principally housing) owned by households, less their debts.
35 China s composition of wealth per adult Composition of wealth per adult, US$ 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, Financial Real Debts Net worth Source: Davies, Lluberas, Shorrocks, Credit Suisse. Note: Net worth or wealth is defined as the value of financial assets plus real assets (principally housing) owned by households, less their debts.
36 China s wealth per adult over time US$ billions 25, Wealth per adult 2, 15, 1, Wealth per adult at constant exchange rate 5, Source: Davies, Lluberas, Shorrocks, Credit Suisse. Note: Net worth or wealth is defined as the value of financial assets plus real assets (principally housing) owned by households, less their debts.
37 The population is aging Age dependency ratio, old India Brazil China 212 World Asia Pacific Russia U.S. China 225 U.K. Euro area Japan Source: World Bank. Note: The old age dependency ratio is the ratio of the elderly to the workforce. All countries are 212.
38 China share of elderly will increase rapidly Share of population 65+ Percent U.S. China India Source: World Bank.
39 China s aging population mirrors problem throughout Asia Population, millions 1, & over Source: United Nations.
40 China and India will make waves in the global middle class Share of global middle-class consumption, 2-25 Source: OECD.
41 China and U.S. current account balances converge Current account balance, percent of GDP U.S. China Sources: World Bank, BEA, SAFE.
42 China s external imbalance is getting worse Current account, percent of GDP Source: CEIC.
43 China PMI manufacturing falls to an 8-month low Markit PMI composite Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Sources: Markit, Bloomberg.
44 China s debt is on the rise RMB trillions 6 5 Non-bank debt 4 3 Bank loans Source: Bloomberg. Note: Non-bank debt refers to Entrusted loans, trust loans, bank acceptance, and corporate bond financing.
45 NPL to total loans ratio has not gone up yet RMB trillions Total loans Non-performing loans, percent of total Sources: Economist, Bloomberg.
46 China relies on increasing domestic credit to support growth Percent of GDP Domestic credit to private sector Current account balance Source: World Bank.
47 Shenzhen outperforms Shanghai index Index, 1=1/1/ Small caps (Shenzhen Index) Large caps (Shanghai Index) Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Source: Bloomberg.
48 Emerging market equity index performance Index, 1=1/1/ South Africa 11 India 15 Russia China 8 Emerging Markets 75 Brazil 7 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Source: Bloomberg.
49 Cost of offshore CNY borrowing market decreases 3 year Dim Sum bond yield Percent Source: Bloomberg. Note: 3-year bonds have historically seen the most issuance.
50 Total social financing stock breakdown Percent of total social financing outstanding, 213 Corporate bonds 8% BADs 6% Public equity 3% Trust loans 4% Entrusted loans 7% Bank FX loans 5% Bank loans 67% Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research. Note: BADs are defined as bankers accepted drafts.
51 Chinese acquisitions of U.S. companies US$ billions Volume (left) Deal count (right) Count Source: Bloomberg.
52 Chinese Yuan onshore-offshore funding costs converge Percent Onshore CNY Offshore CNY 6.1 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Source: Bloomberg.
53 Dim sum bond issuance By country US$ trillions Other HK CN Source: Bloomberg.
54 Financial issuers have dominated the dim sum bond market Issuance, US$ billions Other sectors Financials Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Source: Bloomberg.
55 RMB tumbled to lowest levels in a year 1 CNY to USD Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Source: Bloomberg.
56 RMB internationalization US$ billions Volume of cross-border RMB trade settlement (left) Percent of total foreign trade Share of PRC s RMB trade settlement (right) Source: Eichengreen (213).
57 The bulk of Chinese lending goes to real estate Top 1 industries US$ billions Loan tranche size (left) Percent Market share (right) Utilities Real Estate M&M Industrial Transport. Financial Chemicals Gov't Airlines Railroad 1 5 Source: Bloomberg. Note: Loans from ICBC, Bank of China, BoAg, BoCom, China Construction Bank, China Merchants, Minsheng, Everbright, and Citic. Gov t refers to regional and local government, while M&M stands for metals and mining.
58 China s biggest maturing loans concentrated in real estate Percent of total expiring loans Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Source: Bloomberg.
59 Importance of China s property market to wider economy Property market, percent of each category GDP Fixed asset investment Outstanding loans New loans Government revenues Source: Nomura.
60 Non-loan credit extension has accelerated substantially China, moving 12-month average RMB billions Social financing Alternative financing RMB loans Sources: PBOC, Datastream.
61 Banks wealth management products continue to rise Assets under management CNY billions WMP Deposits Q3 21 Q1 211 Q3 211 Q1 212 Q3 212 Q1 213 Q3 213 Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered.
62 Where trust funds go Assets under management Infrastructure 26% Industry 3% Other 13% Real estate 9% Financial institutions 11% Stock market 11% Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research.
China s GDP slows out of double-digit growth
China s GDP slows out of double-digit growth Percent change, annual 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: International Monetary Fund. China s growth forecast slows among Asian countries
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationDoing Business in China. Tuesday, May 3, :00 PM - 5:15 PM
Doing Business in China Tuesday, May 3, 2011 4:00 PM - 5:15 PM The world s second-largest economy China at a glance, 2010 GDP Nominal PPP Growth rate Per capita US$5.745 US$9.872 Value 10.3% US$7,400 trillion
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationRecent Asia experiences with capital flows
Recent Asia experiences with capital flows Rob Subbaraman, Chief Economist Asia Ex-Japan December 2007 Asia ex-japan's total balance of payments % of GDP 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
More informationPutting China s Capital to Work The Value of Financial System Reform
McKinsey Global Institute Putting China s Capital to Work The Value of Financial System Reform Susan Lund, Senior Fellow McKinsey Global Institute October 25, 2006 KEY MESSAGES China has made steady advances
More informationAdvanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery
Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan
More informationRMB Internationalization Status and Its Implications
International Finance RMB Internationalization Status and Its Implications Hansoo Kim, Research Fellow* 1) China announced the RMB internationalization policy in 2009 and has carried forward many initiatives
More informationRMB internationalization:
RMB internationalization: Recent Development and headwinds Alicia Garcia-Herrero Chief Economist for Emerging Markets, BBVA Key points 1 Why is China pushing to internationalize the RMB? 2 Recent development
More informationAsia s strongest brand in banking, banking the world s strongest economies
Credit Suisse Investor Conference Peter Wong, Chief Executive, HSBC Asia-Pacific Asia s strongest brand in banking, banking the world s strongest economies 21 March 2011 www.hsbc.com Forward-looking statements
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 13-Jul-17
Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Jul-7 ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)
More informationRussia: Macro Outlook for 2019
October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia
More information5 th ANNUAL SKBI CONFERENCE 2015ON "DIGITAL BANKING, FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND IMPACT INVESTING" P2P in China
5 th ANNUAL SKBI CONFERENCE 2015ON "DIGITAL BANKING, FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND IMPACT INVESTING" P2P in China Dr. Rui, Oliver Meng(CFA, FRM) Professor of Finance and Accounting Director Ph.D. Program Co-director
More informationThe Developing Asian Capital Markets
The Developing Asian Capital Markets Is GDP growth correlated to equity returns? Source: Bloomberg Data GDP growth is not correlated with equity returns in Asia Unlike what we saw in the US, in Korea from
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationAsia Bond Monitor November 2018
January 9 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets L ast week, the Philippines raised USD. billion from the sale of -year global bonds priced at basis points above benchmark
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 20-Oct-16
Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Oct- ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)
More informationContents. HSBC Group in the world. HSBC in Brazil. New Economic Scenario / Macroeconomic Forecasts
HSBC GLOBAL & LOCAL STRATEGY IN A NEW ECONOMIC SCENARIO Conrado Engel CEO & President of HSBC Bank Brasil 26 March 2010 The British Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Brazil - São Paulo 0 Contents HSBC
More informationChina-US Economic Relation. Jiming Ha
China-US Economic Relation Jiming Ha Trade 2 Important Trade Partners 1. Major exporting countries and regions of China in 216 2. Major exporting countries and regions of United States in 216 The US is
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationNdiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013
Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Overview of recent economic developments Framing the policy choices for the current account and growth in 2014
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationMonetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
More informationAsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS
AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY 9 January 7 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Consumer price inflation in Indonesia eased to.% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December from.6% y-o-y
More informationSMSF Investment Seminar Sydney. 18 Oct 2010
SMSF Investment Seminar Sydney 18 Oct 2010 Important Notice This document has been prepared by Asian Masters Fund Limited (Asian Masters Fund). The material that follows is a presentation of general background
More information2012 Canazei Winter Workshop on Inequality
2012 Canazei Winter Workshop on Inequality Measuring the Global Distribution of Wealth Jim Davies 11 January 2012 Collaborators Susanna Sandström, Tony Shorrocks, Ed Wolff The world distribution of household
More informationINDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 2013
INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 213 PRESSURES MOUNTING Jim Brumby, PREM Sector Manager & Lead Economist Paramadina Public Policy Institute, March 213 www.worldbank.org/id MARCH 213 IEQ LAUNCH PRESENTATION
More informationThe Development of the Offshore. Bonds. Peter J. Morgan, PhD Senior Consultant for Research Asian Development Bank Institute
The Development of the Offshore Market of the Yuan-Denominated Bonds Peter J. Morgan, PhD Senior Consultant for Research Asian Development Bank Institute ADBI-OECD Roundtable on Capital Market Reform in
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationCHNB. Chinese Onshore Bonds: CHNB provides direct access to Chinese onshore bonds that are among the highest quality in the credit spectrum.
Chinese Onshore Bonds: CHNB provides direct access to Chinese onshore bonds that are among the highest quality in the credit spectrum. KEY FEATURES Attractive Yield Onshore bonds typically have offered
More informationChina: Beyond the headlines. Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management
China: Beyond the headlines Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management Are you a China Bull or a Bear? Source: Various news publications 2 Bear myth #1: Hard landing? GDP: Growth is slowing, but it s
More informationThe Rise of Asian Capital Markets JC de Swaan. Renmin University June 10 th, 2009
The Rise of Asian Capital Markets JC de Swaan Renmin University June 10 th, 2009 Overview of Lectures 1. Introduction to Asian Capital Markets 2. China 3. India 4. Japan 5. Corporate Governance in Asia
More informationIndonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic
More informationSHAMBLING FORWARD. 02/13/2014 WORLD POPULATION 2 WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE
SHAMBLING FORWARD. WALL STREET, MAIN STREET, AND CAPITOL HILL: AN ECONOMIC UPDATE Shamble: To walk in an awkward, lazy, or unsteady manner, shuffling the feet FEBRUARY 12, 2014 David B. Hanson, CPA, CFA
More informationInternationalization of the RMB: Developments, Problems and Policies
Internationalization of the RMB: Developments, Problems and Policies 23 October 2015 Zheng Liansheng Outline Introduction The development of RMB internationalization RMB Offshore markets The problems behind
More informationGovernment Bond Markets in ASEAN+3: Achievements in the Past Decade and Challenges for Further Development
Government Bond Markets in ASEAN+3: Achievements in the Past Decade and Challenges for Further Development 14 November 2011 Singapore Noritaka Akamatsu Asian Development Bank Before and shortly after 97
More information2013 OVERVIEW: There are mainly 3 reasons for the rebound;
2013 OVERVIEW: The China market has rebounded since end of June; the upward move has been about 15% from the bottom and it is the first significant move for China Markets, which have been in a range since
More informationAsian fixed income. Rare value in an uncertain world. February For professional clients only. Not for further distribution.
Asian fixed income Rare value in an uncertain world February 216 Content Asian fixed income returns in context Macro situation in Asia Market overview Key considerations in Asian fixed income 2 Asian fixed
More informationMonthly Economic Insight
Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.
More informationThe Forecast for Emerging Markets
The Forecast for Emerging Markets Monday, April 27, 2009 09:30 AM - 10:45 AM Moderator Komal Sri-Kumar, Managing Director, Chief Global Strategist, TCW Group Inc.; Senior Fellow, Milken Institute Speakers
More informationAll the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015
Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in
More informationMacro outlook March 2019
Macro outlook 219 March 219 Asia: Brace, brace Asia has started to loose some steam of late PMI manufacturing orders (3 mma) 54 53 52 51 5 49 48 47 46 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationShadow Banking in China: Implications for Financial Stability and Economic Rebalancing
Shadow Banking in China: Implications for Financial Stability and Economic Rebalancing Prepared for Economics Seminar, Portland State University, May 22, 2015 Yan Liang Willamette University Outline 1.
More information2017 Renminbi Internationalisation Survey Report. Together we thrive
2017 Renminbi Internationalisation Survey Report Together we thrive 2 2017 Renminbi Internationalisation Survey Report HSBC is at the forefront of both offshore and onshore Renminbi (RMB) business: One
More informationMarket Summaries. People s Republic of China. Yield Movements. Size and Composition
Market Summaries People s Republic of China Yield Movements The government bond yield curve of the People s Republic of China (PRC) shifted upward for all tenors between 1 September and 31 October (Figure
More informationPeru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. September 2015
Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru September 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects
More informationL-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study
L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute OT 18.52 Macroeconomic Diagnostics February 26 March 2, 2018 Presenter Stephan Danninger This training material
More informationKorea and Australia in a globalised world
Korea and Australia in a globalised world November 7 Amy Auster Head of International Economics Economics@ANZ Globalisation is the structural change of our time 7,, 5,, 3,, 1, Global merchandise trade
More informationThe Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence
The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments
More informationList of Figures and Tables
List of Figures and Tables Figure I-1-1-1-1 Growth rate of emerging countries and percentage within the global economy... 2 Figure I-1-1-1-2 Export ratio of ROK and Southeast Asia and real GDP per capita...
More informationTransformation in China: New Opportunities and Challenges
Transformation in China: New Opportunities and Challenges March 2008 The information contained herein does not constitute and shall not be construed to constitute investment, tax or legal advice by Deutsche
More informationUnderstanding the Global ASEAN Consumer
Understanding the Global ASEAN Consumer The Philippines Millennials Roberto B. Tan Treasurer of the Philippines February 2015 ASEAN Offers a Future of Prosperity and Stability Combined GDP of nearly USD3tr
More informationAsian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms
Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms One of the commonalities between most Asian governments is the dedicated commitment they have in using policies and initiatives
More informationKey Insights. China Macro Pulse
MACRO REPORT China Economy Update March 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Qinwei Wang Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Economic Conditions: China s macro
More informationCapital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF
Capital Flows to Emerging Markets - The Perspective from the IIF Felix Huefner Global Macroeconomic Analysis Department Institute of International Finance 1 st Meeting of the COMCEC Financial Cooperation
More informationThe Rise of China and the International Monetary System
The Rise of China and the International Monetary System Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute Macro Economy Research Conference China and the Global Economy Hosted by the Nomura Foundation Tokyo,
More informationASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack
ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 E-mail: austera@anz.com Internet: http://www.anz.com/go/economics 1 Major revisions to
More informationGlobal growth weakening as some risks materialise
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationNear-term growth: moderating, but no imminent hard landing. Vulnerabilities are growing along the current growth path
1 Near-term growth: moderating, but no imminent hard landing Vulnerabilities are growing along the current growth path financial and structural reform must be accelerated to contain risks and transition
More informationINDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY CLOSING THE GAP. Frederico Gil Sander Lead Economist October 3, 2017
INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY CLOSING THE GAP Frederico Gil Sander Lead Economist October 3, 2017 How is the economy doing? What to expect in 2018? Closing the gap Growth steady amid mostly favorable conditions
More informationCharting Mexico s Economy
Charting Mexico s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More information2018 MACRO OVERVIEW. More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same. March 9, 2018
2018 MACRO OVERVIEW More of the Same, Yet Less of the Same March 9, 2018 RICHARD FARR MERION CAPITAL GROUP 484-436-4764 rfarr@merioncapitalgroup.com Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09
More informationAsian equities in 2018
Asian equities in 2018 Select 2018 June 2018 Medha Samant Investment Director, Asian Equities For investment professional use only and not for general public distribution. Important information The value
More informationEmerging Global Challenges and implications for Indonesia
Emerging Global Challenges and implications for Indonesia Muhammad Chatib Basri Harvard Kennedy School and University of Indonesia Short term problems: macroeconomic stability 2 The macroeconomic impact
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationInternational Monetary System Reform and Asian Monetary and Financial Cooperation
International Monetary System Reform and Asian Monetary and Financial Cooperation Dr. Zong Liang Deputy General Manager Strategic Development Department Bank of China New Delhi, March 20, 2012 0 Contents
More informationCHINA BIWEEKLY. Innovation in the Electronics and Information Technology Manufacturing Industry Developed Significantly in 2017
CHINA BIWEEKLY RMB Internationalization Business Promotion Office Global Business Division December 24th 2018 BIWEEKLY DIGEST [Economy] Manufacturing PMI in Distinct Downward Trend, Recording 50.0 Points
More informationAn Overview of World Goods and Services Trade
Appendix IV An Overview of World Goods and Services Trade An overview of the size and composition of U.S. and world trade is useful to provide perspective for the large U.S. trade and current account deficits
More informationThe 2019 Chief Digital Officer Study Global Findings
The 2019 Chief Digital Officer Study Global Findings PwC March 2019 Company demographics 2 CDO growth slowed down: 21% of all companies have a CDO in place Percentage of CDOs 1) 2018 21% 2016 19% 2014
More informationPicture area. HSBC Commercial Banking. Citibank Investor Presentation. Alan Keir Group Managing Director and Global Head, Commercial Banking
Picture area HSBC Commercial Banking Citibank Investor Presentation Alan Keir Group Managing Director and Global Head, Commercial Banking March 2012 Forward-looking statements This presentation and subsequent
More informationThis is your presentation title
This is your presentation title Hong Kong in the New Sino-U.S. Relations Alexa Lam Professor of Legal Practice, The University of Hong Kong 1 China s Domestic Economy Economic rebalancing and structural
More informationAsia Bond Monitor November 2015
1 February 16 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided on 11 February to keep unchanged the overnight borrowing rate at.% and
More informationNew Dimension for Offshore Investment
New Dimension for Offshore Investment 1 September 2015 Dr. Kongkiat Opaswongkarn Chief Executive Officer Asia Plus Group Holdings PCL Why Invest Globally? PROS Diversification Products (Equities / Fixed
More informationPOST-CRISIS GLOBAL REBALANCING CONFERENCE ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE LAW OF THE SEA WASHINGTON DC, DEC 1-3, Barry Bosworth
POST-CRISIS GLOBAL REBALANCING CONFERENCE ON GLOBALIZATION AND THE LAW OF THE SEA WASHINGTON DC, DEC 1-3, 2010 Barry Bosworth I. Economic Rise of Asia Emerging economies of Asia have performed extremely
More informationStrong performance for real estate assets
Strong performance for real estate assets Annualized returns, United States, 212 Percent 2 18 16 14 1 year 1 year 12 1 8 6 4 2 REITs Equities Real property Govt bonds CPI T-bills Sources: CBRE, NCREIF.
More informationAsia Bond Monitor June 2018
September 8 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Japan s industrial production fell.% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis but rose.% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in
More informationTurkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita
More informationChina Economic Outlook 2013
China Economic Outlook 2 Key Developments in Brief - Mild recovery of GDP growth: +8 8.5% - Construction and consumption as main drivers - Inflationary pressure to increase: +3% - Tight labor market and
More informationWorld Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November Press Launch November 4, 2009
World Bank Thailand Economic Monitor November 2009 Press Launch November 4, 2009 overview The Thai economy is rebounding from a rocky first half of 2009, but the medium-term outlook is uncertain. The Thai
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationInternational Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly
More informationMongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 2013
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 13 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 May-11 Sep-11 May-1 Sep-1 May-13
More informationAPPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure : Quarterly and annual GDP growth (percent growth) Appendix Figure : Contributions to GDP expenditures (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally
More informationPotential Gains from the Reform Package
Chart 1 Potential Gains from the Reform Package GDP per capita, % 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Ireland Germany Finland Portugal Spain France Greece Note: The estimated cumulative GDP impact from structural reforms
More informationUnique and Attractive China A-Shares Market for Global Investors
Unique and Attractive China A-Shares Market for Global Investors Vivian Lin Thurston, CFA, Partner, Portfolio Manager William Blair Investment Management, LLC Important Disclosures This content is for
More informationThe Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies
The Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies Asian economies maintain stable growth led by domestic demand although growth pace slows down slightly AKI FUKUCHI, YOKO HAGIWARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO
More informationChina chart book Slowing growth and weakening sentiments
Economics China chart book Slowing growth and weakening sentiments Group Research 13 November 1 Nathan Chow Strategist/Economist Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee + 71 violetleeyh@dbs.com
More informationINVEST MONGOLIA September 3, 2012 Frontier 6th Annual Conference. Norihiko Kato Acting CEO, Khan Bank
INVEST MONGOLIA September 3, 212 Frontier 6th Annual Conference Norihiko Kato Acting CEO, Khan Bank Banking Industry in Mongolia Mongolia Macroeconomic Overview Overview GDP per capita (U$) Since 21, Mongolia
More informationAsia Bond Monitor November 2018
7 December 8 Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets T he monetary board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas decided to keep its key policy rates steady during its final meeting for the year on
More informationWorld Geographic Shares
Panel Sponsored by World Geographic Shares North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia / N.Z. 18% 13% 7% 22% 33% 6% World Population Shares, 2002 North America South America Europe Africa
More informationEconomic Status and Policies
China International Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Conference (212) Economic Status and Policies Zhao Jinping Dept. of Foreign Economic Relations The Development Research Center of the State Council of China
More informationGlobal Sovereign Conference Singapore 6 September
Global Sovereign Conference Singapore September 1 --- --- Politics, Populism and the Global Economy Brian Coulton Chief Economist --- --- Key Messages World economy muddling along but global macro risks
More informationTravel Insurance and Assistance
Travel Insurance and Assistance Worldwide research covering over 40 countries Series Prospectus Finaccord Web: www.finaccord.com. E-mail: info@finaccord.com 1 Prospectus contents Page What is the research?
More information