IndiaNivesh Weekly Pulse
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1 24th v 2017 IndiaNivesh Weekly Pulse RETAIL TECHNICAL RESEARCH to decide the next course of markets! Close Chart 1 : Nifty - Daily R1 / R / S1 / S / EMA EMA EMA 9649 Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT Technical Analyst - Equity Tel: ninad.tamhanekar@indianivesh.in Mehul Kothari Sr. Technical Analyst - Equity Tel: mehul.kothari@indianivesh.in Market Outlook Although the week remained lacklustre for the domestic markets but the trend was largely in the favour of Bulls. The benchmark indices traded in a narrow range throughout the week but they kept on inching higher. The index Nifty spot gained more than a percent and closed well above the intermediate resistance of Meanwhile, the index Nifty Bank ended flat. We observed buying interest in individual stocks and as a result the NIFTY SMALLCAP (+2.53%) and NIFTY MIDCAP (+2.53%) outperformed the sectoral indices. Given above is the daily chart of Nifty spot which indicates that the index is stuck between the levels which are the Fibonacci ratios derived from the previous move. Further as per the options data, the OI concentration is at PE & CE followed by CE. Keeping in mind the upcoming derivative expiry and shared rationale we are of the opinion that only a convincing move above or below the range of might dictate the further course of the markets. We expect increase in volatility in the coming weeks and thus advise traders to remain stock specific and trade with proper exit strategy. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
2 Trend lines in Actions Chart 2 : GPPL Weekly (Prev. Close : 153) Chart 3 : PIDILITE Daily (Prev. Close : 842) GPPL is at a threshold of a key falling trend line. A convincing move above 156 can recuperate momentum in the stock. (Bullish) PIDILITE might take breather as it is facing stiff resistance from regression trend line. (Neutral) Chart 4 : DHFL - Daily (Prev. Close : 618) Chart 5: SIEMENS Daily (Prev. Close : 1192) A Doji candlestick pattern at crucial support trend line signposts probable suspension of the correction. (Neutral) A close below falling trend line would be a serious menace to the secular bull trend. (Neutral). Trend lines are a visual representation of support and resistance in any timeframe and a simple tool available for trend analysis. The greater the number of touch points increases the importance, break on the either side may lead to major moves or trend reversals. The above charts will help you go through recent trend line breakouts / breakdowns. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
3 Volume Shockers Chart 6 : QUESS Weekly (Prev. Close : 924) Chart 7 : MCLEODRUSS Weekly (Prev. Close : 198) Recorded highest ever volumes since August 2016 along with price breakout, suggesting continuation of bull trend. (Bullish) For the first time since March 2011, stock recorded such a volume accompanied with huge candlestick, signposts possible trend change. (Bullish) Chart 8 : TV-18 Weekly (Prev. Close : 50.5) Chart 9 : VTL Weekly (Prev. Close : 1284) Robust volumes recorded for the first time since March 2007 along with price breakout, indicating that the stock is gearing for fresh up move. (Bullish) More than 10x Volumes of 10 weeks average, with fall in price, raises concern for the stock. (Neutral) The given stocks witnessed climatic volumes during the week went by. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
4 Bollinger Band breakouts / breakdowns Chart 10 : PCJEWEL - Daily (Prev. Close : 383) Chart 11 : SRF - Weekly (Prev. Close : 1848) Upsurge in volatility after consolidation suggest change in trend. (Bullish) One year consolidation might be getting over, as prices closed above upper Bollinger band. (Bullish) Chart 12 : MANNAPURAM - Daily (Prev. Close : 106) Chart 13 : FUTCONSUMER - Daily (Prev. Close : 63) A close above upper Bollinger band indicates that the stock is gearing for fresh up move. (Bullish) One year consolidation breakout confirmed as price closed above upper Bollinger band. (Bullish) Bollinger Band contraction represents period of low volatility and may be considered by traders for a potential sign of future increased volatility and possible trading opportunities. Thus, in the above examples we have shared few stocks which underwent a breakout / breakdown from the Bollinger band that indicating further acceleration in the on-going trend. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
5 The Averages An exponential moving average (EMA) is a variant of moving average which is similar to a simple moving average, apart from the weightage as more weight is given to the recent closing prices. We have added 50, 100 and 200 DEMA to our analysis which represents shortterm, medium term and long term trend respectively. As short term traders can use 50 DEMA swing trading decisions, while 100 DEMA can be used by medium term. The long-term investors will focus on 200 DEMA and could consider the same for accumulation & distribution of their investments. The Daily Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) is suited for trending market however it could possibly witness multiple cross over in sideways trend. When the market is trending and in oscillation mode as well has sustained trending nature, the DEMA will also show a similar oscillation & vice-versa. However to limit the multiple whipsaws to a certain extent, the stocks mentioned in the table have closed 1% above or below the respective moving averages. Going ahead, these averages can act as initial filter to on-going trend, or could possibly consider as support & resistance. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
6 Nifty 50 Overbought / Oversold Stocks above 70 & below 30 Relative Strength Index RSI- The above shown chart represents the comparison of price action of benchmark index Nifty vis a vis the overbought/ oversold zone of Nifty 50 stocks considering the value of daily RSI. The Overbought zone occurs when the RSI value crosses 70 levels while the oversold zone occurs when it plunges below 30 levels. As per last three years data, we can analyse that, whenever the number of overbought stocks in Nifty 50 goes above 12 the market tend to make an intermediate top, while oversold position occurs when number of oversold stocks of Nifty 50 goes above 13 the market tend to form intermediate bottom. As per the above logic, above shown chart suggests that there is no sign of change in the trend. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
7 Stock of the Week BUY Prev. Close 228 Chart 14: DLF Monthly Chart Target 300 Stop Loss Weeks High Weeks Low EMA EMA EMA 180 Stock Outlook The above mentioned chart shows the consolidation resembling rounding bottom formation. The stock recorded breakout from falling trend line along with close above upper end of Bollinger band. The ongoing bullish price action is supported with positive placement of momentum oscillators. Thus, we recommend buying the stock in the range with a stop loss of 194 for target of 270 / 300. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
8 Weekly Derivatives Analysis Weekly - Open Interest Shockers Nifty Option Snapshot The highest open interest is seen at strikes PE of 6.2 mn shares, while on the CALL side, the highest open interest is seen at strikes CE to the tune of 5.95mn shares. On a w-o-w basis, significant short addition has emerged at strikes PE to the tune of 40 lakh shares along with short covering in strikes CE to the tune of 26 Lakh shares respectively. The above mentioned data indicates that the Nifty is likely confine in a range of And a move above in VIX would bring fresh momentum in the market. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
9 Weekly Pulse MIS Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited ( INSL ), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. INSL includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, employees and affiliates. This document is published in accordance with Regulation 18 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, INSL researches, aggregates and faithfully reproduces information available in public domain and other sources, considered to be reliable and makes them available for the recipient, though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by INSL independently and cannot be guaranteed. This document is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded or published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from INSL. This document is solely for information purpose and should not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. INSL does not take responsibility thereof. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by INSL independently and cannot be guaranteed. INSL has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. The research analysts of INSL have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, thing in this document constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients specific circumstances. INSL does not accept any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, assurances and statements given or made available herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Information mentioned is the current information as of the date appearing on this document only. INSL directors/ employees and its clients may have holdings in the stocks mentioned in the document. This report is based on technical and derivative analysis on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. Following table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter. IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
10 Disclosure of Interest Statement 1 Details of business activity of IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (INSL) INSL is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE and MCX - SX in all the major segments viz. Cash, F & O and CDS segments. INSL is also a Depository Participant and registered with both Depository viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, INSL is a Registered Portfolio Manager and is registered with SEBI. 2 Details of Disciplinary History of INSL disciplinary action is / was running / initiated against INSL 3 Details of Associates of INSL Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document. Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates' any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the document Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months Has research analyst or INSL or its associates managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months Has research analyst or INSL or its associates received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the document. Please refer to the important 'Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the IndiaNivesh website (investment Research Section - link). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. INSL and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. (except to the extent of shares held by Research analyst or INSL or its relatives'/associates') Please refer to the important 'Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the IndiaNivesh website (investment Research Section - link). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. INSL and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. 12 Has research analyst served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company 13 Has research analyst or INSL engaged in market making activity for the subject company 14 Other disclosures INSL, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. INSL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time. IndiaNivesh Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration. INH Corporate Office: Lodha Supremus, 17th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel (West), Mumbai Registered Office: 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel (Board): Fax: research@indianivesh.in Website: IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd 24th v of 10
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