Market Commentary. Weekly Technical Roundup. February 4, 2019

Transcription

1 Market Commentary Sector Wise Performance Indices Last Traded % Change NIFTY IT NIFTY BANK NIFTY REALTY NIFTY INFRA INDIA VIX NIFTY ENERGY NIFTY FMCG NIFTY PHARMA NIFTY PSU BANK NIFTY AUTO NIFTY MEDIA NIFTY METAL NIFTY COMMODITIES NIFTY CONSUMPTION TOP WEEKLY GAINERS ZEEL HCLTECH AXISBANK MARUTI ASIANPAINTS TOP WEEKLY LOSERS VEDL YESBANK ADANIPORT IBULHSGFIN GRASIM Sensex opened the week at 36099, made a high of 36778, low of and closed the week at Thus it closed the week with a gain of 444 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10792, made a high of 10983, low of and closed the week at Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 113 points. Options data for January series maximum Call open interest (OI) of lakh contracts was seen at the strike price, followed by the strike price (with lakh contracts) and (with 17.11lakh contracts). Maximum Put open interest of lakh contracts at the strike price of followed by strike price (with 28.92contracts) and (with 28.21lakh contracts). Hence, NIFTY range would be to Next support is and next resistance is NIFTY PE-26.40, VIX is at , if it sustains above 18, it would be indicating possibility of downside again. VIX if moved below 15 there may be bulls rally. Presently market is expected to trade range bound. PCR is now at 1.63 come down from 1.38; PCR indicates market has fewer rooms for upside while more rooms for downside. Above 1.70 it will in over bought zone and indicates possibility of profit booking. Below 1.20 it will be over sold Investors will eye outcome of the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. It assumes significance after the Interim Budget witnessed moves to shore up consumption demand. Results on February 4: Coal India (Buy Back), IDBI Bank, IRB Infrastructure, Indian Overseas Bank and Exide Industries. Results on February 5: Tech Mahindra, GAIL, HPCL, ACC, BHEL, Punjab National Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, IDFC First Bank, DLF, Apollo Tyres, Tata Global and Dish TV. Results on February 6: Lupin, Cipla, Siemens, Adani Ports, Adani Power, JSW Steel and Allahabad Bank. Results on February 7: Tata Motors, Aurobindo Pharma, Britannia, Adani Enterprises, Coffee Day, Cadila Healthcare, Arvind and Grasim. Results on February 8: Mahindra & Mahindra, NHPC, BPCL and Engineers India. Foreign investors have turned net buyers in this month so far and such a trajectory could only boost the market, going forward. Around Rs 1,300-crore worth of shares have been bought by FIIs so far, but the key highlight has been the recent Rs 3,000- crore purchase of shares by FIIs. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump will deliver the State of the Union address before Congress - a week late after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yanked the original invitation during their showdown over the government shutdown. The UK parliament's Jan. 29 rejection of efforts to delay Brexit has subtly raised the risk of Britain leaving the EU on March 29 with no deal in place on their future relations. Most still expect a last-minute agreement. USDINR ( ) consolidated above 50 SMA support and confirmed continuous six doji candle with good volumes. There is now high probability of crossing trend line resistance at and attain a potential to move towards 72 and SMA is at and 50 SMA is at 71. Major resistance seems to be near 100 SMA at Oscillators are positive in daily as well as weekly chart. Brent Crude (62.75) has prepared an inverse head and shoulder type pattern in daily chart. Neckline resistance is around 500 SMA at 64 and 50 weeks moving average is also moving at 64. The stock sustaining above 50 SMA at 59 and maintaining a range 59 to 64. A decisive breakout above 64 would surge the Brent crude towards 68 and 72. Trend decider support is at 1000 SMA at Oscillators are positive and have Brent crude has probability of a breakout above 64. 1

2 Nifty Weekly Outlook Outlook: Nifty is expected to trade initially in the range to in the coming week. Resistance 11200Support Nifty (10894) has been trading in a range to on weekly closing basis for the last 7 weeks. Oscillators on weekly chart are slightly over bought. A decisive closing below would indicate the weakness but still is another support zone in weekly chart. 50 weeks moving average is at while 100 weeks moving average is at which would act as good support in short term. If moved above decisively on weekly closing basis it may show a breakout but would be a major hurdle for near term. As per long term chart the index would negate the possibility of a big fall only after crossing of decisively. Next resistance would be SMA is at while 50 SMA is at Moving of 100 SMA below all these levels at is a negative signal. Oscillators in daily chart are positive. Conclusively traders need to watch the range to and next Nifty Chart (Weekly):10894 High Low Resistance Levels - R R R R Support Levels - S S S S

3 NIFTY - BANK Outlook Nifty bank (27086) has been closed with a doji candle and the upper shadow indicate the inability of the index to suatin at hiogher levels. At present 50 weeks moving average is acgting as a strong support and the trend decider for medium term also. A decisive closing above would insert strength and it would create the capacity to move towards 2800 and rising trend line resistance at 2900 in long term. Trading below would be a negative signal and in such case it would tend to test the major support at In daily chart trading above SMA is a positve signal and 200 SMA and 100 SMa at and resectively are negating the possibillity of major sell off. Conclusively, as per the weak oscillator in weekly chart, sustaining at higher level would be a concern but a wider range trade might be seen. Bank Nifty Chart (Weekly): High Low Resistance Levels - R R R R Support Levels - S S S S

4 NIFTY Midcap (16990) NIFTY Midcap index (16990) recovered from lower levels and closed with a dragon fly type doji. Sustaining above would be a positive signal and are major hurdle in medium term. Sustaining below16900 would be a negative signal and would act as a crucial support. 50 SMA and 100 SMA are at and it may act as a strong immediate resistance for the index SMA at seems to be major support for medium term. Daily chart as three continuous doji candles and any negative confirmation would cause weakness in the index. As of now oscillators are positive and traders need to watch as a short term trend decider. NIFY PSUBANK (2931) closed with a doji candle with long upper shadow. Closing just at 50 weeks moving average indicate indecisiveness. Trading below 2870 would be negative signal for the index while sustaining in positive terriootory on weekly basis would be positive. The chart suggests the inabiility of the index of crossing 100 weeks oving average ion multiple attempts at Supports are 2748 and The candle in daily chart is a strong bearish engulfing and Oscillators suggests negative trend. 200 and 100 SMA are around SMA is at Traders are suggested to stay cautious in long positions. 4

5 STOCK Picks HEXAWARE (349.60) Hexaware has a strong three months consolidation breakout in weekly chart. It came out of the range 310 to 330. Buy at dips with sl 320 and target Havells (737) Havells (737) has a consolidation breakout of rectangle pattern type. Support is at , buy at declines with stop loss below 700 targets

6 UPL (779.90) UPL has a strong consolidation in weekly chart and a breakout is expected above 800 for an upside momentum towards Support will be 777 after breakout. Disclaimer Source: Sumpoorna Research, NSE, BSE, SEBI, and other publically available documents. Document prepared by: Nitesh Aggarwala & Sunil Koul For further information, please contact: Sumpoorna Global Markets & Economics Research Phone: globalresearch@sumpoorna.com url: This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the security/ instrument referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Sumpoorna Portfolio Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses (collectively referred to as Sumpoorna ) may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a investment vehicle's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a instrument's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's/ investment vehicles fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Sumpoorna or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Sumpoorna has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Sumpoorna endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Neither Sumpoorna, its directors, employees nor its affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please contact Sumpoorna for more information on investment decisions. Also, please refer to the latest update on respective investment instruments for the disclosure status in respect of those particular investment instruments. Sumpoorna and its affiliates and clients may have investment positions in the investment vehicles recommended in this report. 6