Economic Realities and Megatrends

Transcription

1 Economic Realities and Megatrends Implications for Volunteering May 2017

2 Key economic trends

3 Snapshot of Australian Economy May 2017 Inflation 2.1% Average weekly earnings $1,164 Household savings 5.2% Economic Growth 2.4% Unemployment rate 5.9% Population 24.2 million 1.5% annual growth Average price of residential dwelling $656,800 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia: Data as at 2 May

4 Unprecedented period of economic growth ther key indicators 4

5 Economic Forecasts International economy Improvement in global conditions some uncertainties around US economy and slow down in China growth Domestic activity GDP continued to expected to grow pick up after drag from mining investment slowdown predict 2.5% to 3.5% growth to 2019 Unemployment rate Expected to remain steady or edge slightly lower at between 5% and 6% CPI inflation Expected to continue between 1.5 to 2.5 per cent and then increase in 2019 to between 2 to 3 per cent (continued rises in utility costs) Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

6 Challenges It s not all good news

7 Challenges Housing Affordability Housing Affordability Dwelling prices increased by 19% last five years Household incomes increased by 9.2% Backdrop of lower mortgage rates and lower wages growth Price to income ratio National price to income ratio 6.9 from years ago. 7

8 Challenges Housing Affordability 8

9 Median House prices March 1980 March 2016 Increase Sydney $ $ % Melbourne $ $ % Brisbane $ $ % Adelaide $ $ % Perth $ $ % Canberra $ $ % Hobart Not available $ N/A Darwin Not available $ N/A Source: Time series data purchased from the Real Estate Institute of Australia by the Parliamentary Library cited in Housing Affordability in Australia Parliament of Australia Dr Matthew Thomas and Alicia Hall *REIA advises that comparisons over time for Sydney and Brisbane should be made with caution. 9

10 Top 10 Most Expensive Cities in the World 10

11 Recently announced measures Federal Government Budget Measures A new National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation Tax incentives to increase private investment in affordable housing Superannuation breaks for retirees Online land registry 11

12 Challenges Growing underemployment 1.1 million Australians under-employed What is underemployment? People employed part time who want to work more hours; OR People who are usually employed full time but who worked part time for economic reasons. Mainly affects young people (15 to 24 age group); women 12

13 Unemployment rates declining 13

14 Underemployment now tracking above unemployment rate 14

15 Wages growth stuck 15

16 Financial Stress in Australian Households Around 3 to 5 per cent in hardship equates to 460,000 households 10 to 15 per cent consistently unable to pay bills and debts around 1.4 million households. Latest Financial Comfort survey of 1500 households: Reported gains for 46 per cent households >$100,000 Reported gains for 17 per cent households < $40, per cent of part-time employees want to increase working hours 70 per cent of casual workers want to become permanent 16

17 Growing gap between rich and poor blame the baby boomers Top 20 per cent of households - half the income Bottom 20 per cent gets - four per cent. Average household income is $107,000 Top two million households earn $260, times more than the $22,000 earned by the bottom 20 per cent of households. Baby Boomers make up around 25 per cent of population (45 to 64 age group) own more than half (53 per cent) of the wealth in Australia 17

18 What does all this mean for volunteering?

19 State of the Economy and Volunteering Volunteering rates fell for the first time in almost 20 years in 2014 despite continued economic growth % 35.00% 5.2 million 6.4 million 30.00% 5.8 million 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% More women (34% down from 40%) than men (29% down from 37%) year olds have the highest rates of volunteering (42%), followed by (39%) and (35%) Rates lower in capital cities than elsewhere Sport and recreation organisations most common place to volunteer (31%) 0.00%

20 We re all getting busier Median annual hours worked by volunteers fell from 74 hours in hours in hours in 2006 Studies show most common reasons for not volunteering were: Did not have time Unable to make a long-term commitment Preferred to give money instead of time 20

21 Range of factors affecting volunteering Demand Demand for services expected to continue to increase in line with population growth and growing levels of social disadvantage Slow wages growth and underemployment could create a new class of working poor Coupled with housing affordability issues, increasing number of households under financial stress National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) could potentially reduce demand for volunteer disability services Supply Funds for not for profit groups affected by lower than long term average investment returns and tightening of Government budgets Ageing of the population could be a positive or a negative (baby boomer generation) Corporate and school based volunteer programs increasing younger aged volunteers Community, religious and cultural attitudes play a role 21

22 International comparisons 22

23 Top 10 Countries World Giving Index CAF World Giving Index Top 10 Countries World Giving Index GDP Ranking (International Monetary Fund) 1. Myanmar United States of America 1 3. Australia New Zealand Sri Lanka Canada Indonesia United Kingdom 5 9. Ireland United Arab Emirates 30 23

24 Three key measures 1. Helping a stranger 2. Donating money 3. Volunteering time 24

25 Global Megatrends

26 Global Megatrends 26

27 Nine global megatrends Demographics population ageing, declining birth rates Rise of the Individual empowered consumers, growing middle class in countries Enabling technology continued exponential growth in ICT, digital disruption, big data, cyber security, robotics, artificial intelligence Economic interconnectedness increased levels of trade and capital flows, greater risk of contagion events 5 6 Public debt public debt ballooning in most developed countries limiting potential to meet demand for services Economic power shift rebalancing of global power, by 2030, China and India will account for 35% of global population Climate change rising greenhouse gas emission levels continue creating uncertainty and unpredictability in our environment Resource stress increased stress on natural resources including water, food, land and energy Urbanisation almost two thirds of the world s population will reside in cities by

28 We re al l getting older By 2056, around one in four or 25% of Australians will be 65 years or older. In 1964, this was only 8 per cent or less than 1 in 10 people Number of people aged 85 years will rapidly increase from 344,000 in 2007 to between 1.7 million and 3.1 million in

29 Megatrends Robotics and Artificial Intelligence

30 Jobs in a digital age - The Fourth Industrial Revolution KPMG s Head of Data and CEO of Data 61 warns that 40 per cent of Australian jobs will disappear in the next ten years Jobs will go in transportation and storage, manufacturing and retail affecting mainly manual and clerical workers Future jobs growth in computing, mathematics, architecture and engineering as well as caring professions New hybrid workforce models not just people but cognitive systems, machines and robots 30

31 The robots are coming Robots and virtual reality technology already here in aged care. Rapid advances being made in Japan. Alice shown here is a small humanoid robot being deployed in some dementia facilities. She s a zorobot robot or socialization robot being trialled in Australia. She s only 57 cm high and can: run patient activities including physical therapy and singing classes read out TV programmes, weather forecasts or local news. 31

32 Meet Nadine Nadine is a robot designed to provide childcare and offer friendship to lonely elderly people. Nadine can: meet and greet visitors smile, make eye contact and shake hands recognise past guests pick up conversations based on previous chats. Powered by intelligent software similar to Apple's Siri or Microsoft's Cortana, she is the brainchild of scientists at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore Based on her creator Prof Nadia Thalmann. 32

33 Nadine Video 33

34 What does all this mean for volunteering? Positives Likely to be increased supply of volunteers with ageing of the population Demand for volunteer services could decrease with introduction of NDIS Robotics and AI will mean people have more leisure time and therefore more time to volunteer Virtual volunteering will continue to increase Negatives Demand for services likely to continue to rise Embedded social disadvantage may worsen Unemployment increasing for low skilled workers Continued pressure on budgets of not for profit groups Time pressures could mean fewer volunteers in younger age groups 34

35 Thank you

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