Public Infrastructure Spending

Transcription

1 kpmg Public Infrastructure Spending The Australia Institute Conference 17 October 2018

2 Show me the money Government has a crucial role in providing and maintaining public good infrastructure in society In simple terms government needs to be regularly investing in infrastructure to: o At a minimum, maintain its existing functionality o Typically, maintain per capita service standards o Ideally, enhance outcomes for the population We regularly see politicians in the high-vis vest and hardhat announcing new projects, but it s hard to reconcile whether government is spending enough or on the right assets 2

3 Government is spending more Gross Capital Formation - Public Corporations & General Government Commonwealth and State & Local Governments, $ real 100,000 90,000 80,000 Chain Volume Measure $ millions 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Commonwealth State & Local Source: ABS, KPMG Economics 3

4 In both absolute and proportionate terms Spend on Gross Capital Formation as % of Total Government Expenditure, $ real 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Commonwealth State & Local Source: ABS, KPMG Economics 4

5 but some are spending more than others Gross capital formation as % of Total Government Expenditure, $ real 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT FY95 FY05 FY15 FY17 Source: ABS, KPMG Economics 5

6 and is even more pronounced on a per-capita basis Gross capital formation per capita expenditure by jursidiction, FY17 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 $ real per capita 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT Source: ABS, KPMG Economics 6

7 and some are doing it better than others Average annual gross capital formation expenditure as a % of Non-financial assets by component, FY06-FY17 8% 7% Average annual growth 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT Aust Govt Depreciation recovery Population growth 'Pure' net increase in capital stock Source: ABS, KPMG Economics 7

8 finally, it also matters when you spend it Real Growth in Private Investment, Public Investment and GDP, Australia 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Annual real growth in Private Investment (LHS) Annual Growth in real GDP Annual real growth in Public Investment (RHS) Source: ABS, KPMG Economics 8

9 KPMG s findings and recommendations Public sector capital stock is consumed at a rate of 2.5% per annum Just to stand still Australia needs to spend about $45 billion on public sector assets each year Capital spend just equivalent to depreciation does not maintain the status quo if there is growth in the population KPMG recommends minimum level of efficient public sector expenditure per annum should be between 5.5% and 6.0% of the value of non-financial public sector assets As per today s NFPS assets this equates to around $100 billion actual spending in FY17 was $86 billion Current investment in NFPS is insufficient and should be raised by between 15% and 25% Ideally investment should be counter-cyclical to private sector spend Efficient public sector capital expenditure is therefore a function of how it is spent, what it is spent on, and when it is spent 9

10 Thank you

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