PROPERTY EU EUROPEAN LOGISTICS INVESTMENT BRIEFING
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1 PROPERTY EU EUROPEAN LOGISTICS INVESTMENT BRIEFING RICHARD HOLBERTON, SENIOR DIRECTOR, EMEA RESEARCH, CBRE FEBRUARY 19 TH 2015
2 AGENDA Economy Market Activity Forecasts Issues
3 ECONOMY
4 2014 Some Alarms and Some Deja Vu
5 Improving Economic Outlook Eurostat Economic Sentiment Indicator Hungary UK Ireland Sweden Czech Republic Germany Portugal EU Average Spain Netherlands Greece Poland Romania Belgium Denmark Italy France Austria Finland Oct-Dec 2014 Oct-Dec difference from the long-run average
6 Periphery Improving Against Core Eurozone Eurostat Economic Sentiment Indicator Ez Core (includes Italy) Northern Ez Periphery (includes Spain)
7 Eurozone to Lag Behind the Rest Annual average GDP growth Central Europe Ireland UK Spain Germany Nordics Netherlands Eurozone France Russia Italy Source: Oxford Economics
8 Italy UK Germany Source: Macrobond year Government Bond Yields
9 MARKET ACTIVITY
10 WAREHOUSE/ LOGISTICS TAKE-UP, SELECTED Warehouse/Logistics Take-up Selected Locations, (Y on Y % Change) 60% 50% 40% 30% Where?: France; Netherlands; Italy; Poland (& other CEE) Who?: National and international retailers; food manufacturing; pharma; 3PLs and parcel services. Focus on prime 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
11 The Demand Dumbbell XXL warehouse platforms in strategic locations Urban logistics & parcel delivery centres 11 CBRE JANUARY 2014
12 Dec-12 Dec-88 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-14 EMEA Prime Rent Index Y-O-Y Change (%) Retail Index Industrial Index Office Index All Property Index Source: CBRE Research
13 Commercial Property Investment In Europe Q4 investment turnover close to record level Billion Billion CRE Investment 12 Month Rolling Total Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: CBRE Research
14 Industrial & Logistics Investment, Europe, Billion 25 France Germany UK Benelux Nordics Southern Europe CEE Other Source: CBRE Research
15 Property Investment In Europe By Sector Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Share of Investment Turnover (%) Source: CBRE Research 15 Office Retail Industrial
16 FORECASTS
17 Shoulder To Shoulder?
18 CBRE EMEA Prime Yield Index Weighted Average Prime Yield (%) Retail Industrial Office bps 200 bps Apr-12 Mar-13 Feb-14 Jan-15 Dec-15 Nov-16 Oct-17 Sep-18 Mar-91 Feb-92 Jan-93 Dec-93 Nov-94 Oct-95 Sep-96 Aug-97 Jul-98 Jun-99 May-00 Apr-01 Mar-02 Feb-03 Jan-04 Dec-04 Nov-05 Oct-06 Sep-07 Aug-08 Jul-09 Jun-10 May-11 Source: CBRE Research
19 Prime Warehouse/Logistics Yields Present yield relative to high and low of current cycle (%) London Frankfurt Hamburg Munich Stockholm Amsterdam Rotterdam Manchester Brussels Paris Dublin Warsaw Prague Barcelona Madrid Milan Lisbon Budapest Current yield Cyclical low Cyclical peak Source: CBRE Research
20 Industrial Yields Outlook London Munich Amsterdam Oslo Paris Brussels Berlin Warsaw Frankfurt Bratislava Hamburg Manchester Prague Helsinki Milan Vienna Madrid Moscow Barcelona Budapest Dublin Yield Shift (BPs) Source: CBRE
21 Industrial Rental Growth Outlook Oslo Dublin London Moscow Prague Manchester Frankfurt Madrid Milan Warsaw Paris Munich Amsterdam Stockholm Berlin Budapest Bratislava Hamburg Barcelona Brussels Rental Growth % p.a. ( ) %pa Source: CBRE
22 Yield Gaps And Rental Growth Prime industrial yield relative to 10-year government bond (%) Q Prime Yield 10-year Government Bond 10.0 Spread ERV Growth % p.a. (rhs) London Oslo Manchester Source: CBRE Research, Macrobond Warsaw Stockholm Dublin Berlin Frankfurt Munich Amsterdam Brussels Barcelona Paris Milan Madrid Prague
23 Industrial Returns Outlook Moscow Dublin Budapest Barcelona Madrid Prague Milan Manchester Bratislava Warsaw Frankfurt Paris Hamburg Brussels Berlin Amsterdam Munich London Oslo Returns % p.a. ( ) %pa Source: CBRE
24 Issues Differences from Prime property yields comfortably above long-term interest rates Investment being primarily financed by equity rather than debt And economies and leasing markets (mostly) improving Doesn t mean that there aren t risks Upward yield corrections if occupier market expectations are dented by financial / political events (e.g., Grexit) Some protection for industrial & logistics as its not a growth play, but exchange rates (actual and anticipated) may be more of an issue Pricing : cheap or expensive:? Where next for capital: secondary assets, niche markets.?
25 PROPERTY EU EUROPEAN LOGISTICS INVESTMENT BRIEFING RICHARD HOLBERTON, SENIOR DIRECTOR, EMEA RESEARCH, CBRE FEBRUARY 19 TH 2015
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