THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY AND THE AGENDA FOR REFORMS
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2 THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY AND THE AGENDA FOR REFORMS XX Joint of Japan Brazil Economic Cooperation Committee José Augusto Coelho Fernandes Policy and Strategy Director Curitiba, August 28th, 2017
3 FROM TOKYO TO CURITIBA: What changed in the Brazilian economy? 3
4 THE QUESTIONS WHAT THE ECONOMIC INDICATORS SAY ABOUT THE RECOVERY? WHAT WAS THE EVOLUTION OF THE REFORMS? 4
5 FROM TOKYO TO CURITIBA RECOVERY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MORE REFORMS THAN EXPECTED NEW INVESTIGATIONS, NEW UNCERTAINTIES 5
6 Economic scenario How is the economy going? 6
7 BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: HOLDING VIRTUALLY STEADY BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX ICEI* TOKYO CURITIBA Confidence 52,3 52,6 Lack of confidence Aug-12 ago/12 ago/13 ago/14 ago/15 ago/16 ago/17 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Oct-16 Aug-17 *The ICEI varies in the interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident. Source: ICEI Business confidence index. 7
8 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION HAS STOPPED FALLING INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CURITIBA TOKYO 86,5 83,6 jun/14 Jun-14 dez/14 Dec-14 jun/15 Jun-15 dez/15 Dec-15 jun/16 Jun-16 Oct-16 dez/16 jun/17 Jun-17 Source: IBGE 8
9 INFLATION: BETTER THAN EXPECTED IPCA INDEX 12,0 10,5 TOKYO 7,87 12-month inflation 9,0 7,5 CURITIBA Inflation target 6,0 4,5 2,71 Forecast 3,0 1,5 0,0 Source: IBGE Forecast: CNI 9
10 CDS: A LOWER RISK 10 Source: Bloomberg CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 out/13 jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 abr/16 jul/16 out/16 jan/17 abr/17 jul/17 Jan-10 Jul-17 Oct-16 TOKYO 214,1 273,9 CURITIBA Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Oct-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Apr-17
11 INVESTMENTS: A SLOW RECOVERY INVESTMENT INTENTIONS INDEX CURITIBA TOKYO 47,9 43,5 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 ago/15 dez/15 abr/16 ago/16 dez/16 abr/17 ago/17 Aug-17 *The index range from The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest Source: CNI 11
12 Nov-Dec-Jan nov-dez-jan Dec-Jan-Feb dez-jan-fev Jan-Feb-Mar jan-fev-mar Feb-Mar-Apr fev-mar-abr Mar-Apr-May mar-abr-mai Apr-May-Jun abr-mai-jun May-Jun-Jul mai-jun-jul Jun-Jul-Aug jun-jul-ago Jul-Aug-Sep jul-ago-set Aug-Sep-Oct ago-set-out Sep-Oct-Nov set-out-nov Oct-Nov-Dec out-nov-dez Nov-Dec-Jan nov-dez-jan Dec-Jan-Feb dez-jan-fev Jan-Feb-Mar jan-fev-mar Feb-Mar-Apr fev-mar-abr Mar-Apr-May mar-abr-mai Apr-May-Jun abr-mai-jun May-Jun-Jul mai-jun-jul Jun-Jul-Aug jun-jul-ago Jul-Aug-Sep jul-ago-set Aug-Sep-Oct ago-set-out Sep-Oct-Nov set-out-nov Oct-Nov-Dec out-nov-dez Nov-Dec-Jan nov-dez-jan Dec-Jan-Feb dez-jan-fev Jan-Feb-Mar jan-fev-mar Feb-Mar-Apr fev-mar-abr Mar-Apr-May mar-abr-mai Apr-May-Jun abr-mai-jun May-Jun-Jul mai-jun-jul Jun-Jul-Aug jun-jul-ago Jul-Aug-Sep jul-ago-set Aug-Sep-Oct ago-set-out Sep-Oct-Nov set-out-nov out-nov-dez Oct-Nov-Dec Nov-Dec-Jan nov-dez-jan Dec-Jan-Feb dez-jan-fev Jan-Feb-Mar jan-fev-mar Feb-Mar-Apr fev-mar-abr Mar-Apr-May mar-abr-mai Apr-May-Jun abr-mai-jun UNEMPLOYMENT KEPT INCREASING BUT NOW IS IN A TURNING POINT AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE LABOR FORCE (%) TOKYO 11,8 CURITIBA 13, Source: Continuous PNAD/IBGE 12
13 EXCHANGE RATE: UNCERTAINTIES AND RESILIENCE DAILY EXCHANGE RATE (PTAX CLOSING RATE*) IN R$ PER US$ 3,8 3,7 3,6 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,2 3,1 3 2,9 TOKYO 3,18 CURITIBA 3,12 2,8 Oct-16 ago/16 Aug-16 Sep-16 set/16 out/16 Nov-16 nov/16 dez/16 Dec-16 jan/17 Jan-16 fev/17 Feb-17 mar/17 Mar-17 abr/17 Apr-17 mai/17 May-17 Jun-17 jun/17 Jul-17 jul/17 Aug-17 Source: Central Bank of Brazil * The Closing Ptax rate is the arithmetic average of bid and offer rates published in daily bulletins. 13
14 SUMMARY TOKYO CURITIBA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 52,3 52,6 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 83,6 86,5 INFLATION 7,87 2,71 RISK 273,9 214,1 INVESTMENT INTENTIONS 43,5 47,9 UNEMPLOYMENT 11,8 13,0 EXCHANGE RATE 3,18 3,12 14
15 TOWARD A CYCLICAL RECOVERY TREASURY INTEREST RATE SELIC (%) HOUSEHOLD DEBT (%) LEVERAGE (DEBT/EQUITY) ,25 9, ,4 41,5 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,61 0,65 0,71 0,69 0,76 0,93 0,85 0 jun/13 Jun-13 abr/14 Apr-14 fev/15 Feb-15 dez/15 Dec-15 Oct-16 out/16 ago/17 Aug ,4 May-11 mai/11 May-12 mai/12 May-13 mai/13 mai/14 May-14 mai/15 May-15 mai/16 May-16 mai/17 May Q 1T Source: Central Bank of Brazil. Source: Central Bank of Brazil. Source: CEMEC-IBMEC. 15
16 IT HAS BEEN TIME OF REFORMS IN BRAZIL CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS REGULATORY REFORMS ORDINARY LAW REFORMS 16
17 ONE YEAR AFTER 36 6 COMPLETED 23 IN PROGRESS PROPOSALS 7 HAVE STALLED CNI
18 REFORMS ACCOMPLISHED: MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FISCAL Limit on Public Expenses EDUCATION High School reform GOVERNANCE Regulatory Agencies Public Sector Companies LABOR Outsourcing Labor reform Excluding commuting accidents from the FAP (Accident Prevention Factor) calculation SECTORIAL Petroleum & Gas (sharing regime review) Charging the CDE (Energy Development Bill) proportionally Modernizing concessions for exploiting natural gas onshore TRADE Trade facilitation Trade negotiations IN PROGRESS 18
19 THE NEW LABOR LAW: A LANDMARK 54 AMENDED CONSOLIDATED LABOR LAW ( CLT ) 922 articles 43 NEW ONES 09 REVOKED 19
20 THE NEW LABOR LAW: A LANDMARK PREVALENCE OF NEGOTIATION OVER LEGISLATION NEW CONTRACTS MODELS MORE FLEXIBILITY RESPECT TO FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS LEGAL CERTAINTY COOPERATION 20
21 WHAT CANNOT BE NEGOTIATED Health and security rules 13th salary (compulsory Christmas bonus) Right to free unionization Right to strike Right to free and spontaneous collective bargaining 21
22 WHAT CANNOT BE NEGOTIATED Additional pay for extraordinary working hours Protection against discrimination Maternity and paternity leave Annual vacation Protection for female workers 22
23 WHAT CAN BE NEGOTIATED + NEW REGULATIONS Representation of workers in the workplace Working hours, subjected to the constitutional limits Flexible working hours and an annual working hours bank Exclusion of commuting hours from working hours (rule) 23
24 WHAT CAN BE NEGOTIATED + NEW REGULATIONS Rest and meal break of at least 30 minutes Home office and intermittent work Modality of recording working hours Possibility of switching holidays falling in the middle of the week 24
25 WHAT CAN BE NEGOTIATED + NEW REGULATIONS Career and wages plan and corporate regulation Compensation for productivity and individual performance Incentive bonuses in goods and services Participation in profits and results 25
26 REFORMS: WHAT IS ON THE PIPELINE Land Regulation for foreigners Environment Licensing Social Security Reform Penalties against counterfeit products 26
27 ISSUES TO MONITOR MENTIONED IN THE TOKYO MEETING + ELECTIONS 2018 CONGRESS REACTION TO REFORMS PUBLIC OPINION REACTION EVOLUTION OF CORRUPTION INVESTIGATIONS SPEED OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY ELECTIONS
28 The climbing continues 28
29 To a better scenario (an integrated one) Cherry Blossoms Ueno Park,Tokyo 29 Ipê-roxo Ipê Festival, Brasilia
30 National Confederation of Industry - Brazil
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