Market Derivatives in the EU Dairy Sector
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1 Market Derivatives in the EU Dairy Sector The Challenge is not Regulation 3 rd Meeting of the Expert Group on agricultural commodity derivatives and spot markets 18 June 2013
2 Market Derivatives in the EU dairy sector Introduction: Milk & Dairy Products Overview of available price risk tools Current usage of the tools What are the challenges? What are the opportunities?
3 Milk & Dairy Products Milk fat Insoluble protein Soluble protein Milk sugar Milk minerals
4 Milk & Dairy Products Cheese Whey powder
5 Milk & Dairy Products Butter Skimmed Milk Powder
6 Market Derivatives in the EU dairy sector Introduction: Milk & Dairy Products Overview of available price risk tools Current usage of the tools What are the challenges? What are the opportunities
7 Available Tools There is a wide variety of dairy futures and options contracts at various exchanges world wide. Chicago Mercantile Exchange contracts have been traded more than 15 years. Contracts on European (Eurex & NYSE Liffe) and NZ (NZ-X) exchanges are more recent. Both contracts with physical delivery and cash settled contracts are offered.
8 What contracts are available Chicago Mercantile Exchange Class III Milk Class IV Milk Cheese Cheese Spot Call Blocks Cheese Spot Call Barrels Dry Whey International Skimmed Milk Powder Nonfat Dry Milk Nonfat Dry Milk Spot Call Grade Extra Nonfat Dry Milk Spot Call Grade A Butter Butter Spot Call
9 What contracts are available Eurex EU Butter EU SMP EU Whey Powder NZ-X (New Zealand) WMP AMF SMP NYSE Liffe OTC EU SMP Flexible contracts
10 Type of Contracts Contracts with Physical Delivery Open interest contracts at expiry date require physical delivery. Ability to cover future product needs High liquidity requirement Examples CME International Skimmed Milk Powder NYSE Liffe EU Skimmed Milk Powder Main Issue Physical delivery mostly undesirable in the dairy sector
11 Type of Contracts Cash Settled Contracts Open interest contracts at expiry date are cash settled against reference price. No ability to cover product needs Lower Liquidity requirement Examples All EUREX contracts All NZ-X contracts CME Milk, SMP, Butter, Cheese & Whey futures Main Issue Correlation of settlement price with physical market price
12 Market Derivatives in the EU dairy sector Introduction: Milk & Dairy Products Overview of available price risk tools Current usage of the tools What are the challenges? What are the opportunities
13 What is trading today Open interest (futures) CME: (24 months) tons of SMP (2012 P: MT) 1.6 % of estimated 2 year production tons of Butter (2011 P: MT) 6 % of E2Y production tons of Cheese (2012 P: MT) 1% of E2Y production tons of whey powder (2012 P MT) 1.9 % of E2Y production tons Class III milk (AP: +/- 40 million MT) 2.5 % of E2Yproduction tons of Class IV milk (AP: +/- 10 million MT) 1 % of E2Y production
14 What is trading today Open interest
15 What is trading today Open interest (futures) NZ-X : 18 months WMP: 890 MT Compare to NZ 2012 exports : MT SMP: 565 MT Compare to NZ 2012 exports: MT AMF: 414 MT Compare to NZ 2012 exports: MT
16 What is trading today Open interest (futures) Eurex: 18 months SMP: 30 MT EU annual production MT Whey powder: 125 MT EU annual production: MT Butter: 990 MT EU annual production: MT
17 Market Derivatives in the EU dairy sector Introduction: Milk & Dairy Products Overview of available price risk tools Current usage of the tools What are the challenges? What are the opportunities?
18 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU The EU dairy market has long time been shielded from price volatility
19 What are the challenges for dairy futures
20 What are the challenges for dairy futures
21 What are the challenges for dairy futures
22 What are the challenges for dairy futures
23 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU The EU dairy market has long time been shielded from price volatility EU Farm gate milk price and commodity prices have limited correlation.
24 Jan 00 May 00 Sep 00 Jan 01 May 01 Sep 01 Jan 02 May 02 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU Sep 02 Jan 03 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Jan 05 May 05 Sep 05 Jan 06 May 06 Sep 06 Jan 07 May 07 Sep 07 Jan 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 May 10 Sep 10 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 May 13 Milk Prices Evolution (up to February 2013) LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat) Weighted EU Average (real fat content) EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices) EUR/100 kg Source :MS communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/ LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland
25 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU The EU dairy market has long time been shielded from price volatility Farm gate milk price and commodity prices have limited correlation Global market, EU market and US market are not (yet) perfectly aligned
26 Euro / tonne Jan/07 Apr/07 Jul/07 Oct/07 Jan/08 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU Apr/08 Jul/08 Oct/08 Jan/09 Apr/09 Jul/09 Oct/09 Jan/10 Apr/10 Jul/10 Oct/10 Jan/11 Apr/11 Jul/11 Oct/11 Jan/12 Apr/12 Jul/12 Oct/12 Jan/ SMP market prices Premium European SMP( ) Oceania SMP ( )
27 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU USD/t WMP Prices EU World Market ZMB Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13
28 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU The EU dairy market has long time been shielded from price volatility EU Farm gate milk price and commodity prices have limited correlation Global market, EU market and US market are not (yet) perfectly aligned Settlement mechanism for cash settled contracts is not yet fully trusted
29 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU The EU dairy market has long time been shielded from price volatility EU Farm gate milk price and commodity prices have limited correlation Global market, EU market and US market are not (yet) perfectly aligned Settlement mechanism for cash settled contracts is not yet fully trusted The majority of dairy products do not behave like commodities
30 What are the challenges for dairy futures in the EU The EU dairy market has long time been shielded from price volatility Farm gate milk price and commodity prices have limited correlation Global market, EU market and US market are not (yet) perfectly aligned Settlement mechanism for cash settled contracts is not yet fully trusted The majority of dairy products do not behave like commodities Everybody is waiting for more liquidity to start trading
31 The opportunities for dairy futures in the EU Surplus milk after end of quota will be most likely priced on commodities Contracts and settlement mechanism will improve OTC serves as experimental market place Increased correlation with global markets NZ-X and CME contracts becoming valid price risk tools for EU market More experience and more trust Dairy companies hiring traders from other sectors
32 Market Derivatives in the EU Dairy Sector Thank you! Bart Van Belleghem Secretary General Eucolait
12236/12 JR/fk 1 DG B 1
COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 10 July 2012 12236/12 AGRI 491 AGRIORG 116 NOTE from: to: Subject: Commission Council Report on the situation of the dairy market Delegations will find attached
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