Producer Newsletter. DAIRY COMMENTARY
|
|
- Randolph Collins
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Tuesday October 16, S. LaSalle St. Suite 3000 Chicago, IL Zach Bowers, & Ryan By Trevor Slegers,Trevor Ryan Slegers Yonkman, Zach Yonkman Bowers & Cody Koster DAIRY COMMENTARY Highlights: 4In Class III, what goes down must come up! 4CME butter finds support again, just shy of $2.30 Class III - Cheese/Dry Whey: By Zach Bowers - Fundamentally, not much has changed in the Class III market. Blocks are still in demand while barrels seemingly can t find any. This is due mostly to society s demand change to a more premium natural product (blocks) compared to processed cheese (barrels). So today let s take a different approach and look at seasonality and percentiles. Everything I m referencing you able to see in the Seasonal charts below. The old saying goes what goes up must come down, but today I m going to reverse that theory and say, what is down must come up! For all of 2018, the milk price has settled below the 5-year 25th percentile, and that trend continues into the first half of This means that over the last 5 years 75% of the time the milk price has been higher. This tells me that there is less downside risk as there is upside potential. Unfortunately, though, I don t think we are off to the races quite yet. It is something we need to be very mindful of in our risk management strategies. I think we can see some extended time at these ranges until a supply or demand function disrupts this. All the while, keep in mind that we are sitting on the 25% percentile which gives us a lot of room to go higher from here. So, for now, Options and Dairy RP should be your best friend-- cheap coverage with upside, because what goes down must come up. Market Tables Page 1
2 Class IV - Butter/Nonfat: DAIRY COMMENTARY By Trevor Slegers - Class IV on a current cash basis is back over the $15.00 threshold, just a week after hitting monthlylows. Butter is the primary cause of index finding legs again with the spot market finding support this past week. A market that has been a sideways trade with a neutral sentiment is a penny shy of $2.30/ lb, consistently finding support in the low- $2.20s and resistance in the low-$2.30s. In the futures, the fourth quarter average recently found support at $2.27, current a penny above that. Nonfat meanwhile is also trading sideways but in a much tighter range. Spot, current at $0.8725/lb, has only seen a range of roughly 1.50 cents from the median price for the past month. This morning s GDT was stronger than expectations. While today s auction did not break the streak of non-positive auctions set a 10 now after today s 0.3% decrease for the total index, fat posted a higher day in both AMF (+1.0%) and butter (+2.4%). Skim milk powder, on the other hand, finished unchanged while WMP finished down almost a percent lower. MILK-FEED *(Class III Corn* Soybean meal* ) Provided by Vault Page 2
3 DAIRY RECOMMENDATIONS Class III/Cheese Time Period % Hedged (Class III) (Cheese) (Dry Whey) Comments Oct % $15.62 $1.577 $0.44 Nov-Dec % $15.67 $1.574 $0.47 Jan-Jun % $15.90 $1.630 $0.41 Jul-Dec % $16.39 $1.670 $0.39 Oct. is pretty well priced out and trading right near what we are getting for expiration: $ Class III and Cheese at $ Want to continue to focus on owning puts here, maintaining our upside. Nov puts are 20 cents and Dec puts are 20 cents. Prefer options here and prefer using RP to buy them, taking into account the subsidy (pricing around 40% less then similar CME put). On the CME, the puts are running around 20 cents a month or could consider the 15/17 collar for around no cost. I know for some there is some margin out there at this $15.90 area and you re looking to lock it up. At this point in time if your objective is to lock in some margin, I have no problem with this. I personally still prefer options and would like to see what prices will do through October is now averaging $16.13 and Jul-Dec is at $ Our 2019 strategies are changing with new Dairy RP program launch and we are looking get our revenue covered with RP and sell CME options around it. For now on the CME: /18.00 would be around no cost or could use RP to obtain a similar floor, sell the same 14 floor and have upside to for around no cost. Class IV Time Period % Hedged (Class IV) (Nonfat) (Butter) Comments Oct % $15.03 $0.879 $2.28 Hold into expiration Nov-Dec % $15.03 $0.881 $2.28 Jan-Jun % $15.32 $0.920 $2.25 Jan-Dec % $15.88 $0.935 $2.27 Class III remains the driver and focus. $15.00 puts are around 30 cents per month. Class III remains the driver and focus. If you want coverage here, I would prefer using RP to buy them, taking into account the subsidy (pricing around 40% less then similar CME put). Looking at coverage in Q1 for 13 cents and coverage in Q2 for 21 cents using RP. Class III remains the driver and focus. Prefer using RP to buy options if need be here. Page 3
4 Provided by: CURRENT MARKETS Data taken at 9:30 a.m. CST on 10/16/18 and provided by Options City. To learn more about Vault Technologies, visit Page 4
5 SEASONAL CHARTS Page 5
6 SEASONAL CHARTS FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERY INVESTOR. INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS STRICTLY THE OPINION OF ITS AUTHOR(S) AND NOT NECESSARILY OF RICE DAIRY AND IS INTENDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES AND IS NOT TO BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY OR TRADE IN ANY COMMODITY OR SECURITY MENTIONED HEREIN. INFORMATION IS OBTAINED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED RELIABLE, BUT IS IN NO WAY GUARANTEED. OPINIONS, MARKET DATA AND RECOMMENDATIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. RYAN YONKMAN AND CODY KOSTER DO NOT MAINTAIN POSITIONS IN ALL COMMODITY(S) CONTRACTS MENTIONED WITHIN THIS REPORT. TREVOR SLEGERS DOES MAINTAIN POSITIONS IN ALL COMMODITY(S) CONTRACTS MENTIONED WITHIN THIS REPORT. REPRODUCTION OR REDISTRIBUTION PROHIBITED BY LAW.
HEDGING. dairy. There Are Many Options. Dairy Economist and Policy Analysts Workshop May 2017
HEDGING dairy Dairy Economist and Policy Analysts Workshop May 2017 5201 East Terrace Drive, Suite 280 l Madison, WI 53718 l800-726-9928 l info@blimling.com 2017 Blimling and Associates, Inc. This report
More informationInformation Products. It s irreplaceable. 135 S. LaSalle St., Suite 3000 Chicago, IL
It s irreplaceable. - Business Development Director at a leading dairy farm group Information Products 135 S. LaSalle St., Suite 3000 Chicago, IL 60603 312-492-4200 www.ricedairy.com ANALYSIS Data-driven
More informationMarket Derivatives in the EU Dairy Sector
Market Derivatives in the EU Dairy Sector The Challenge is not Regulation 3 rd Meeting of the Expert Group on agricultural commodity derivatives and spot markets 18 June 2013 Market Derivatives in the
More informationManaging Class IV Opportunities
Managing Class IV Opportunities Dairy producers focus most of their hedging efforts on mitigating collapses in milk prices or collapses in margins. At more fortunate times they can turn their attention
More informationBy Matt Gould, Chief Market Analyst. October 1, 2018
By Matt Gould, Chief Market Analyst October 1, 2018 2 Road Map Forecast Outlook Dairy Product Demand Analysis Nonfat Dry Milk Butter Cheese Dry Whey Global Supply & Demand Milk Supply Analysis Global USA
More informationMONTHLY MILK & FEED MARKET UPDATE
MONTHLY MILK & FEED MARKET UPDATE Provided By: Curtis Bosma - (312) 870-1185 - curtisb@highgroundtrading.com December 2014 A Sinking Ship? As the leaves began to fall, so did milk futures. Cheese sellers
More informationOffering participants of the $48 billion U.S. dairy business a useful tool in managing the price risks inherent to this industry. Nov - 08.
Commodity products Dairy Futures and Options Offering participants of the $48 billion U.S. dairy business a useful tool in managing the price risks inherent to this industry. CLASS III MILK ELECTRONIC
More informationvs Last vs Last Market 8-Sep 1-Sep 25-Aug 18-Aug 11-Aug 4-Aug
DAIRY Volume 21 Number 35 and grain Market 8-Sep 1-Sep 25-Aug 18-Aug 11-Aug 4-Aug 4% -5% Barrel Cheddar (CME average; lb) $ 1.5569 $ 1.4995 $ 1.6620 $ 1.6805 $ 1.5550 $ 1.5730 6% -5% Block Cheddar (CME
More informationMonthly Dairy Technical Commentary Thursday September 5, 2013
Monthly Dairy Technical Commentary Thursday September 5, 2013 CME Class III Milk Futures The weekly price trend for Class III Milk points down from its August 2011 high, and the latest breakdown below
More informationBASICS OF FUTURES. Jon Spainhour. Dairy Market Futures and Options Trading Brokerage. Dairy Market Futures and Op2ons Trading Brokerage
Dairy Market Futures and Op2ons Trading Brokerage BASICS OF FUTURES Jon Spainhour What We Do What We Do 1 Our Dairy Team The Rice Dairy team of 20 is fully focused on dairy prices. Our mission is to arm
More informationDairy Outlook. August By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University. Market Psychology
Dairy Outlook August 2014 By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University Market Psychology The prices of all dairy products have been mixed since last month. The CME block cheese
More informationPricing Issues in Dairy Futures Markets. T. Randall Fortenbery
Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 24-25, 2011 U.S. Department of Agriculture Pricing Issues in Dairy Futures Markets T. Randall Fortenbery T. Randall Fortenbery RENK Agribusiness Institute
More informationBULLETIN. Market Information
Market Information BULLETIN Erik F. Rasmussen, Market Administrator www.fmmatlanta.com October 2017 Southeast Marketing Area Federal Order 7 Volume 18 No. 10 ISSUED FOR THE INFORMATION OF PRODUCERS WHO
More informationFLORIDA. Fluid Milk Report. Erik F. Rasmussen Market Administrator. Dairy Forecasts for 2016
FLORIDA Fluid Milk Report Erik F. Rasmussen Market Administrator Florida Marketing Area Federal Order No. 6 www.fmmatlanta.com January 2016 Volume 17 No.1 Dairy Forecasts for 2016 Excerpts from Livestock,
More informationARE DAIRY FUTURES IN YOUR FUTURE? GEOFF BENSON
ARE DAIRY FUTURES IN YOUR FUTURE? GEOFF BENSON Ag. & Resource Economics North Carolina State University US All Milk Price and Trend, 1989-2003 19.00 18.00 17.00 US All Milk Price Linear Trend $/100 lb
More informationFLORIDA. Fluid Milk Report. Erik F. Rasmussen Market Administrator.
FLORIDA Fluid Milk Report Erik F. Rasmussen Market Administrator Florida Marketing Area Federal Order No. 6 www.fmmatlanta.com April 2017 Volume 18 No. 4 Dairy Forecast for 2017 Excerpts from Livestock,
More informationDairy Outlook and Utilizing MPP- and LGM-Dairy: Kenny Burdine University of Kentucky Agricultural Economics
Dairy Outlook and Utilizing MPP- and LGM-Dairy: 2015 Kenny Burdine University of Kentucky Agricultural Economics Outline for Discussion Review of Current Market Conditions Cow numbers, production expectations,
More informationAGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT. Global Grain Geneva November 12, 2013
AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT Global Grain Geneva November 12, 2013 Managing Price Risk is Easier to Swallow Than THE ALTERNATIVE Is Your Business Protected Is Your Business Protected Is Your Business Protected
More informationMore information on other ways of forward contracting hogs is available in the module Hog Market Contracting.
Hedging Hogs by the Farm Manager Introduction Hog prices can vary significantly from year to year and even day to day. With this volatility in the hog market, forward pricing opportunities arise worthy
More informationDairy Outlook. July By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University. Market Psychology
Dairy Outlook July 2013 By Jim Dunn Professor of Agricultural Economics, Penn State University Market Psychology The CME block price fell by 5% in the last month, ending 8.75 /lb. lower at $1.665/lb. Most
More informationFLORIDA. Fluid Milk Report
FLORIDA Fluid Milk Report Erik F. Rasmussen Market Administrator Florida Marketing Area Federal Order No. 6 www.fmmatlanta.com January 2018 Volume 19 No. 1 Dairy Forecast for 2018 Excerpts from Livestock,
More informationMonthly Dairy Technical Commentary August 19, 2015
Monthly Dairy Technical Commentary August 19, 2015 CME Class III Milk Futures Range contraction continues for Class III Milk as it continues to correct the September 2014 through January 2015 downdraft.
More informationCommodity products. Grain and Oilseed Hedger's Guide
Commodity products Grain and Oilseed Hedger's Guide In a world of increasing volatility, customers around the globe rely on CME Group as their premier source for price discovery and managing risk. Formed
More informationFonterra: GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE JUNE 2013 ISSUE TEN
Fonterra: GLOBAL DAIRY UPDATE JUNE 2013 ISSUE TEN Welcome to our latest Global Dairy Update. The Update is Fonterra s commitment to continually educating and informing our farmers and wider stakeholders
More informationCombined Index Trader Net Position Corn, Soybeans, Wheat
Weather No changes in the forecast this morning. Active showers in the eastern US over the next week, with some significant totals seen in the ECB over that timeframe. WCB areas should see limited amounts.
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team March, 2 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities
More informationDAIRY. and grain. Volume 17 Number 17 May 3, 2013
DAIRY Volume 17 Number 17 and grain Week Year Market 3-May 26-Apr 19-Apr 12-Apr 5-Apr 29-Mar 22-Mar -2% 15% Barrel Cheddar (CME average; lb) $ 1.6850 $ 1.7245 $ 1.7630 $ 1.7385 $ 1.6435 $ 1.6056 $ 1.6255
More informationUnited States Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE
ANNOUNCEMENT OF CLASS AND 1/ JANUARY 2018 Differential Rate Milk 3.5% BF $ 8.98 $ 2.5075 $ 17.44 Total $ 9.18 $ 2.5095 $ 17.64 $ 8.78 $ 2.5055 $ 17.24 2.10 9.08 2.5085 17.54 2.20 9.18 2.5095 17.64 2.30
More informationVOLATILITY: FRIEND OR ENEMY? YOU DECIDE!
VOLATILITY: FRIEND OR ENEMY? YOU DECIDE! Jared Morgan INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division Kansas Farm Bureau -- Young Farmers & Ranchers Conference January 25-27, 2019 Manhattan, KS Part 1 DISCLOSURES
More informationVIX Option Strategies
VIX Option Strategies Russell Rhoads, CFA Instructor The Options Institute 2010 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated. All rights reserved. CBOE Disclaimer Options involve risks and are not suitable
More informationLMEprecious week four update
LMEprecious week four update 07 August 2017 SETTING THE GLOBAL STANDARD Lots Volumes for LME Gold and LME Silver Combined ADV for week four was 7,728 lots, up from 7,467 lots in week three 14,000 LMEprecious
More informationEcon 337 Spring 2016 Midterm 3/8/ points possible
Econ 337 Spring 2016 Midterm 3/8/2016 100 points possible Fill in the blanks (2 points each) 1. A put option contains the right to sell a futures contract. 2. A call option contains the right to buy a
More informationDAIRY GRAIN AND R E P O R T. January 25, 2013 Volume 17 Number 4
DAIRY GRAIN AND R E P O R T Volume 17 Number 4 Week Market 25-Jan 18-Jan 11--Jan 28-Dec -4% 7% Barrel Cheddar (CME average; lb) $ 1.5863 $ 1.6595 $ 1.6855 $ 1.7225 $ 1.6825-3% 10% Block Cheddar (CME average;
More informationMARGIN M ANAGER INSIDE THIS ISSUE. Margin Watch Reports. Features DAIRY WHITE PAPER. Dairy... Pg 11 Beef... Corn... Beans... Pg 16 Wheat...
MARGIN M ANAGER Margin Management Since 1999 The Leading Resource for Margin Management Education Learn more at MarginManager.Com Monthly INSIDE THIS ISSUE Margin Watch Reports Dairy... Pg 11 Beef... Pg
More informationWASDE, TARIFFS, GOOD WEATHER (A LITTLE DRY), BETTER CORN & WORSE BEAN EXPORTS. CROP CONDITIONS OK
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP WASDE, TARIFFS, GOOD WEATHER (A LITTLE DRY), BETTER CORN & WORSE BEAN EXPORTS. CROP CONDITIONS OK Higher close soybean oil while lower for Minneapolis,
More informationECON 337 Agricultural Marketing Spring Exam I. Answer each of the following questions by circling True or False (2 point each).
Name: KEY ECON 337 Agricultural Marketing Spring 2014 Exam I Answer each of the following questions by circling True or False (2 point each). 1. True False Futures and options contracts have flexible sizes
More informationWASDE REPORT: GLOBAL ENDING STOCKS INCREASED. US STOCKS UNCHANGED
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP WASDE REPORT: GLOBAL ENDING STOCKS INCREASED. US STOCKS UNCHANGED Higher closes for oats and corn while lower closes for rough rice, soybeans,
More informationAND R E P O R T. July 20, 2012 Volume 16 Number 28
DAIRY AND GRAIN R E P O R T Volume 1 Number 28 Week Market 20-Jul 13-Jul -Jul 29-Jun 22-Jun 3% -20% Barrel Cheddar (CME average; lb) $ 1.7025 $ 1.580 $ 1.750 $ 1.720 $ 1.035 4% -20% Block Cheddar (CME
More informationMARGIN M ANAGER The Leading Resource for Margin Management Education
Margin Management Since 1999 MARGIN M ANAGER The Leading Resource for Margin Management Education March 2015 Learn more at MarginManager.Com INSIDE THIS ISSUE Dear Ag Industry Associate, Margin Watch Reports
More informationPricing Considerations Cattle Pricing and Risk Management
Pricing Considerations Cattle Pricing and Risk Management Risk Market Outlook Profit Target or Breakeven Derrell S. Peel Agricultural Economics Department Cash High risk/highest return potential Bullish
More informationTHE HIGHTOWER REPORT
Futures Analysis & Forecasting HightowerReport.com March 21, 214 Strategies for March 31st Report: Non-standard Options New, non-standard options at the CME can be great tools for commodity traders, especially
More informationWASDE THURSDAY - RECORD CORN & BEAN STOCKS - POSSIBLE RECORD BEAN CROP - RAIN IN KANSAS
Page 1 of 7 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP WASDE THURSDAY - RECORD CORN & BEAN STOCKS - POSSIBLE RECORD BEAN CROP - RAIN IN KANSAS Higher closes for rough rice and soybean oil, unchanged
More informationThe Dairy Margin Protection Program - Is It Right for Me?
The Dairy Margin Protection Program - Is It Right for Me? Many dairy producers have questions regarding the new government Margin Protection Program including if they should sign up for it and how it will
More informationMARGIN M ANAGER The Leading Resource for Margin Management Education
Margin Management Since 1999 MARGIN M ANAGER The Leading Resource for Margin Management Education February 2015 Learn more at MarginManager.Com INSIDE THIS ISSUE Dear Ag Industry Associate, Margin Watch
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team 1 November 20 www.imf.org/commodities sbeidasstrom@imf.org Today we are launching the Commodity Outlook and Risks. This new monthly publication
More informationWHEN SOMEONE CLAIMS TO KNOW WHERE COMMODITY PRICES ARE REALLY HEADING GRAB YOUR WALLET AND RUN! Daniel A. Sumner and William A. Matthews 1 ABSTRACT
WHEN SOMEONE CLAIMS TO KNOW WHERE COMMODITY PRICES ARE REALLY HEADING GRAB YOUR WALLET AND RUN! Daniel A. Sumner and William A. Matthews 1 ABSTRACT Forecasting agricultural commodity prices is fraught
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team 1 December 22, 20 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected
More informationThe Margin Protection Program for Dairy in the 2014 Farm Bill (AEC ) September 2014
The Margin Protection Program for Dairy in the 2014 Farm Bill (AEC 2014-15) September 2014 Kenny Burdine 1 Introduction: The Margin Protection Program for Dairy (MPP-Dairy) was authorized in the Food,
More informationInterim Results 2019 March 2019
Interim Results 2019 March 2019 Disclaimer This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections. There can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the forward-looking
More informationSTANDARDIZED MILK PRICE CALCULATIONS for MAY 2012 deliveries
STANDARDIZED MILK PRICE CALCULATIONS for MAY 2012 deliveries Company Milcobel Alois Müller Humana Milchunion eg Nordmilch Arla Foods Hämeenlinnan Osuusmeijeri Bongrain CLE (Basse Normandie) Da (Pas de
More informationMARKETLINE. Soybeans: Bullish Acreage Report. Cash Only. Future Hedgers. What to Sell. Future Hedgers. Only
MARKETLINE www.progressiveag.com 701-277-9210 1-800-450-1404 April 1, 2016 What to Sell Cash Only Cash Only Future Hedgers Future Hedgers Week s Rank 2015 2016 2015 2016 1. HRS Wheat 30% 0% 30% 0% 2. Soybeans
More informationLearn To Trade Stock Options
Learn To Trade Stock Options Written by: Jason Ramus www.daytradingfearless.com Copyright: 2017 Table of contents: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS MANUAL WHAT IS AN OPTION BASICS OF HOW AN OPTION WORKS RECOMMENDED
More informationUkrainian Grain Congress Black Sea Wheat Futures
Ukrainian Grain Congress 2011 Black Sea Wheat Futures Kiev - October 10, 2011 Jeffry Kuijpers DISCLAIMER Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a
More informationWorking with Your Lender Thomas R. Stocksdale PNC Agricultural Banking
Working with Your Lender Thomas R. Stocksdale PNC Agricultural Banking Futuring the Dairy Farm Business: In, Out, Moving Ahead November 4, 2010 Dairy Practices Council Agenda Are you: IN, OUT, MOVING AHEAD?
More informationIntroduction to Futures & Options Markets for Livestock
Introduction to Futures & Options Markets for Livestock Kevin McNew Montana State University Marketing Your Cattle Marketing: knowing when and how to price your cattle. When Prior to sale At time of sale
More informationALWAYS BEWARE OF DRY WEATHER FORECASTS
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP ALWAYS BEWARE OF DRY WEATHER FORECASTS Higher to sharply higher closes for oats, rough rice,corn, soybeans, soymeal and soybean oil along with
More informationDairy Market Outlook. European Dairy Market Overview. EU and US SMP Prices ($/Mt) SMP Spread EU-US ($/Mt)
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Dairy Market Outlook European Dairy Market
More informationFrance both remained unchanged at 800.
Traded price ( /tonne) Volume Traded Dairy Market Outlook European Dairy Market Overview 11 Sep. 14 The European Quotations continued to be weaker as physical markets in Europe continue to come under pressure.
More informationMARGIN M ANAGER The Leading Resource for Margin Management Education
Margin Management Since 1999 MARGIN M ANAGER The Leading Resource for Margin Management Education Learn more at MarginManager.Com March INSIDE THIS ISSUE Dear Ag Industry Associate, The USDA released several
More informationRick Alexander
ralexander@zaner.com MEAL CONTINUES TO LEAD THE CORN AND SOYBEAN COMPLEX HIGHER Posted on 5/18/2016 6:52:57 AM WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR ANY
More informationMax Weekly: 317. Eurex SMP traded a total of 48 contracts. week with 40 of. those trading on. Monday 30th June, where the. Butter Price (US$/tonne)
Butter Price (US$/tonne) Price Spread Butter Price (US$/tonne) Volume per Week (lots) Cumulative Volume (lots) Dairy Market Outlook European Dairy Market Overview 1 Jul. 14 The week ending July 4th was
More informationDairy Programs in the 2012 Farm Bill. Who should sign up for subsidized margin insurance with supply management?
Dairy Programs in the 2012 Farm Bill Who should sign up for subsidized margin insurance with supply management? Dr. Marin Bozic University of Minnesota Introduction Substantial increases in milk production
More informationReport Summary. Easing stock pressure amidst anticipated drop in production
Daily BMD CPO Market Analysis and Price Outlook Decision enabling market analysis & price outlook For Nov 01, 2013 Report Summary BMD CPO Jan 14 Futures Fundamental Summary Technical Summary Price outlook
More informationCommodity products. An Introduction to Trading Dairy Futures and Options
Commodity products An Introduction to Trading Dairy Futures and Options As the world s largest and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) is where the world comes to manage
More informationRisk Management for Stocker Cattle. R. Curt Lacy, Ph.D. Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia
Risk Management for Stocker Cattle R. Curt Lacy, Ph.D. Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia Risk Management for Stocker Cattle It is NOT uncertainty! It is the negative outcome associated
More informationCrop Insurance for Milk? Dairy-Revenue Protection
Crop Insurance for Milk? Dairy-Revenue Protection Dr. John Newton jnewton@fb.org American Farm Bureau Federation 1 Congress Projected Annual Average Crop Market Value Dairy is the 3 rd Biggest Crop Billion
More informationFundamental Factors Affecting Agricultural and Other Commodities. Research & Product Development Updated July 11, 2008
Fundamental Factors Affecting Agricultural and Other Commodities Research & Product Development Updated July 11, 2008 Outline Review of key supply and demand factors affecting commodity markets World stocks-to-use
More informationA pre-harvest marketing plan can be written months (years?) in advance. Quiz Time!
Have a plan! Pre-harvest marketing is a broad view of the market, trying to take advantage of early seasonal price tendencies. Crop insurance is a critical part of marketing. A pre-harvest marketing plan
More informationUSING RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS: A LIVESTOCK APPLICATION
USING RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS: A LIVESTOCK APPLICATION John Michael Riley AssistantExtension Professor Assistant Extension Professor Department of Agricultural Economics 1 Price Risk: Introduction Commodity
More informationCrops Marketing and Management Update
Crops Marketing and Management Update Grains and Forage Center of Excellence Dr. Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor Department of Agricultural Economics Vol. 2018 (2) February 14, 2018 Topics
More informationLGM-Dairy: Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy
LGM-Dairy: Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Victor E. Cabrera Assistant Professor Extension Dairy Specialist Dairy Science Department Brian W. Gould Associate Professor Ag and Applied Economics 12th Annual
More informationSLOVENIA AG CONFERENCE
SLOVENIA AG CONFERENCE Thomas.Deevy@intlfcstone.com 23 rd November 2017 INTL FCStone Ltd ( IFL ). Branch registered in Ireland No. 907174. Registered in England and Wales Company No. 5616586. Authorised
More informationMARKETLINE. Soybeans: Flat Week. What to Sell. Cash Only. Future Hedgers. Future Hedgers. Only
MARKETLINE www.progressiveag.com 701-277-9210 1-800-450-1404 March 18, 2016 What to Sell Cash Only Cash Only Future Hedgers Future Hedgers Week s Rank 2015 2016 2015 2016 1. HRS Wheat 30% 0% 30% 0% 2.
More informationFirst Quarter 2015 Earnings. May 11, 2015
First Quarter 2015 Earnings May 11, 2015 1 Forward-Looking Statements Some of the statements made in this presentation are forward-looking and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provision of the Private
More informationHEDGING WITH FUTURES AND BASIS
Futures & Options 1 Introduction The more producer know about the markets, the better equipped producer will be, based on current market conditions and your specific objectives, to decide whether to use
More informationCrops Marketing and Management Update
Crops Marketing and Management Update Grains and Forage Center of Excellence Dr. Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor Department of Agricultural Economics Vol. 2017 (2) February 16, 2017 Topics
More informationFutures and Options Live Cattle Feeder Cattle. Tim Petry Livestock Marketing Economist NDSU Extension Service
Futures and Options Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Tim Petry Livestock Marketing Economist NDSU Extension Service FutOpt-Jan2018 Price Risk Management Tools Cash forward contract Video and internet auctions
More informationCommodity Price Outlook & Risks
Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team 1 September 18, 20 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected
More informationLGM-Dairy: A Risk Management Tool for Dairy Farms
LGM-Dairy: A Risk Management Tool for Dairy Farms January 2017 AgRisk Management Risk Management Tools Pro & Con Risk Management Black Swan Events Reviewing Quotes Risk Management Plan 1 What is Risk Management?
More informationPRETTY MUCH NO CHANGES. GRAIN STOCKS AND SMALL GRAIN REPORTS ON FRIDAY
Page 1 of 6 RICK ALEXANDER, MARKET STRATEGIST ZANER GROUP PRETTY MUCH NO CHANGES. GRAIN STOCKS AND SMALL GRAIN REPORTS ON FRIDAY Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with
More informationStochastic analysis of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
Stochastic analysis of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 217-226 The Agricultural Outlook projects future outcomes based on a specific set of assumptions about policies, the responsiveness of market participants
More informationCreating Your Marketing Plan
Creating Your Marketing Plan Jeff Peterson Heartland Farm Partners 402 366 4694 jeffpeterson@heartlandfarmpartners.com www.heartlandfarmpartners.com Topics Developing a marketing plan Answering the essential
More informationGLOBAL DAIRY. Market Outlook PRICE TREND - SMP, WMP, CHEESE, BUTTER, WHEY* ($/MT) WHEY SMP WMP CHEESE BUTTER
GLOBAL DAIRY Market Outlook January 14, 2016 2013-16 PRICE TREND - SMP, WMP, CHEESE, BUTTER, WHEY* ($/MT) 1600 WHEY SMP WMP CHEESE BUTTER 2013 2014 2015 2016 5800 Whey 1400 1200 1000 800 4920 4040 3160
More informationDAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY Monday January 04, 2016
DAILY GRAINS COMMENTARY Monday January 04, 2016 DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY Nice widespread rains for central/northern Brazil plus selling? SOY BEANS -4.4, BEAN OIL -0.4, SOYMEAL -0.4 OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS:
More informationChina Modern Dairy (1117 HK)
Equity Research Consumer staples China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) Underperform (Downgraded) Target price: HK$2.75 ASP outlook worsens on China Mengniu settlement price cut Milk powder inventory destocking
More informationFUTURES CONTRACTS FOR MILK: HOW WILL THEY WORK? Bob Cropp 1
Dairy Day 1996 FUTURES CONTRACTS FOR MILK: HOW WILL THEY WORK? Bob Cropp 1 Summary The two new milk futures contracts offer dairy farmers and other buyers and sellers of milk and dairy products additional
More informationINTRODUCTION TO EURONEXT COMMODITY DERIVATIVES
INTRODUCTION TO EURONEXT COMMODITY DERIVATIVES March 2015 https://derivatives.euronext.com/en/products/commodities EURONEXT COMMODITY DERIVATIVES Product range Milling Wheat Malting Barley Corn Rapeseed
More informationAdam Pukalo Commodity Futures Advisor TECHNICALS & TRENDS. January Year in Review
TECHNICALS & TRENDS January 2016 2015 Year in Review What did grain and livestock prices do this year and where do we see them headed? CONTRACT UP OR DOWN? JANUARY 1, 2015 OPEN CURRENTLY front futures
More informationMARKETLINE. Soybeans: South American Pressure. Cash Only. Future Hedgers. What to Sell. Future Hedgers. Only
MARKETLINE www.progressiveag.com 701-277-9210 1-800-450-1404 February 26, 2016 What to Sell Cash Only Cash Only Future Hedgers Future Hedgers Week s Rank 2015 2016 2015 2016 1. HRS Wheat 30% 0% 30% 0%
More informationRisk Management Programs for Forage and Livestock Producers. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia
Risk Management Programs for Forage and Livestock Producers Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia It is NOT uncertainty! It is the negative outcome associated with an unforeseen
More informationHow to Make Calls Into Puts
UNDERSTANDING SYNTHETIC EQUIVALENCE How to Make Calls Into Puts COPYRIGHT 2012, OPTIONPIT.COM CHAPTER 1 How to Make Calls Into Puts Or... There is no such thing as a credit spread www.optionpit.com How
More informationKey Commodity Report Weekly
Key Commodity Report Weekly CME Group Corn Soybean Soy Meal Soybean Oil Rough Rice Wheat Cheddar Barrel Cheddar Block Milk Class III Butter AA Source: CME Group *Euro *British Pound Canadian Dollar Chinese
More informationSoybeans face make or break moment Futures need a two-fer to avoid losses By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst
Soybeans face make or break moment Futures need a two-fer to avoid losses By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst A year ago USDA shocked the market by cutting its forecast of soybean production, helping
More informationClosing Grain & Soybean Comments
SRW and HRW futures finished 7-10 cents lower and were down 10-12 at their lowest point. HRS futures finished just 3-7 cents lower. The continued US shutout on major export business, stronger US dollar
More informationWEEK 1: INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES
WEEK 1: INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES Futures: A contract between two parties where one party buys something from the other at a later date, at a price agreed today. The parties are subject to daily settlement
More informationSACU INFLATION REPORT. February 2015
SACU INFLATION REPORT February 2015 The content of this publication is intended for general information only. While precaution is taken to ensure the accuracy of information, the SACU Secretariat shall
More informationAnalyze the Market for a Seasonal Bias. It is recommended never to buck the seasonal nature of a market. What is a Seasonal Trend?
The seasonal trend in a market is our way of taking the fundamental price action of a market...and then chart it year-by-year. Analyze the Market for a Seasonal Bias STEP 5 Using Track n Trade Pro charting
More informationFutures and Options Live Cattle Feeder Cattle. Tim Petry Livestock Marketing Economist NDSU Extension
Futures and Options Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Tim Petry Livestock Marketing Economist NDSU Extension www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomcs FutOpt-Jan2019 Price Risk Management Tools Cash forward contract Video
More informationThe McCully Report October 2018
The McCully Report October 2018 Feed Prices & Dairy Farm Margins Summary: Grain harvest is in full swing in the US with bumper crops expected for corn and soybeans. Futures prices for each are unchanged
More informationTerm Deposits. Figure 1. Term Deposit Spread over Relevant BBSW: November v October. 3 Month Spread. Background on Term Deposits
Deposit Review November 2016 Term Deposits Jack Pobjoy Credit Analyst (+61) 3 9670 8615 jack.pobjoy@bondadviser.com.au While global interest rate volatility continues, term deposit (TD s) rate spreads
More information