COMPANY OVERVIEW PRESS MEETING 20 OCTOBER 2018, GENOA

Transcription

1 COMPANY OVERVIEW PRESS MEETING 20 OCTOBER 2018, GENOA

2 DISCLAIMER This document contains certain forward-looking information that is subject to a number of factors that may influence the accuracy of the statements and the projections upon which the statements are based. There can be non assurance that the projections or forecasts will ultimately prove to be accurate; accordingly, the Company makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of such information or the likelihood that the Company will perform as projected. 2

3 AGENDA A successful industrial transformation Business Plan & recent Developments: Business Model & Organization Focus on technical know-how and expertise The Energy transition: a profound change in competitive and regulatory Environment Business Plan Targets & recent Developments 2Q 2018 Results Key Figures Key Financials 2018 Guidance and Conclusions 3

4 A SUCCESSFUL INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION

5 ERG INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMATION Disposals (Cash-in) Total Disposals: 3,600mn Investments (1) (EV) Total Investments: 4,300mn 1,031 1,050mn Dividends paid in the period (2) , (3) (3) ISAB Refinery TE, EOS and other Oil ISAB Energy Organic Wind M&A Wind Hydro Acquisition Cogenerative CCGT Solar Acquisition Renewable diversification financed through oil-linked disposals and strong cash generation (1) It refers to M&A and organic growth CAPEX (2) It includes dividends to be paid in May 2018 (ca. 171mn with ordinary DPS at 0.75/sh and extraordinary DPS at 0.4) (3) 2018 includes TotalErg Disposal whose closing took place on January 10, 2018 with a partial cash-in of 85mn in 2017, and ForVEI acquisition (EV 337mn) whose closing took place on January 12,

6 INVESTED CAPITAL FULLY ROTATED TO RENEWABLES Capital employed 2008 ( 2.2bn) 2014 ( 2.1bn) Pro Forma 1/1/2018 (1) ( 3.3bn) Oil Natural Gas Water Wind Sun From Oil to Renewables (1) It includes TotalErg Disposal whose closing took place on January 10, 2018 with a partial cash-in of 85mn in 2017, and ForVEI acquisition whose closing took place on January 12,

7 EU LEADING RENEWABLE IPP 216 MW 82 MW 276 MW 527 MW 70 MW 54 MW 1,791MW 90MW 527MW 480MW 1,093 MW 90 MW Offices O&M Warehouse Wind Farm Wind Pipeline CCGT Hydroelectric Plant Solar Plant CCGT 480 MW Wind Natural Gas Water Sun 61% 15% 12% 12% (1) 100% 100% 100% (1) It refers to Romania, Bulgaria and Poland 7

8 ERG STRICT CORPORATE GOVERNANCE MODEL Shareholders Meeting Leaders Meeting Human Capital Committee Board of Directors Board of Statutory Auditors Management Committee Sustainability Committee Control and Risk Committee Nominations and Remuneration Committee Strategic Committee Risk Committee Investment Committee A strict financial discipline on investments (organic and M&A) through: - Strategic Committee (EVP, CEO, CFO, 3 Board Members) - Investment Committee (CEO, CFO, Management Team) Strong risk management policy: - new risk policy to ensure the hedging policy of the generation portfolio Full Alignment of interests between Top Management and shareholders through: - a launch of a new LTI compensation scheme subject to EGM approval fully based on shares 8

9 SHAREHOLDING STRUCTURE 63% San Quirico/ Polcevera (1) 36% Free Float ERG performance vs FTSE Italia All Share (2008 to date) TSR ERG = +151% +53% -45% ERG FTSE Italia All Share Index (1) ERG owns 1% of own Shares 9

10 BUSINESS PLAN & RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

11 BUSINESS MODEL AND ORGANIZATION

12 Min. Business diversification ERG CHANGE MANAGEMENT APPROACH FLEXIBLE MINDSET Max. Business diversification 1 From "oil-company" to multi-energy Group "Light" Model 2 "Fast Steering" Model Integrated Group ERG today Industrial Holding with subsidiaries 3 Switch to "IPP green" multicountry Pure Holding Single Business 2 or more synergic Business 2 or more diversified Business Diversified Business Level of centralization Organizational changes always consistent with business model (from "Multi Energy" to "IPP green") Synergies between staff & lines Flexible mindset to cope with a changing business environment 12

13 Corporate levers Business levers : A LEAN ORGANIZATION WHERE LEVERS MATCH ACCOUNTABILITY Energy Management Market (Com.al) GEN & MARKET AFC & PROC HC & ICT PA & C BD CORP & LEG AFF ERG Power Generation Spa Regulatory Operations / Asset Mgmt Maintenance E&C ERG Spa Procurement Business Development Energy Risk Management Finance M&A Institutional Relations Human Capital & ICT Legal Risk Management No Overlapping levers 13

14 A BEST IN CLASS TECHNICAL EXPERTISE

15 WIND O&M INSOURCING AS A VALUE LEVER Progressive O&M internalization (MW) O&M operations cost reduction (%) Italy France Germany ,086 1,094 1, Abroad 76 1,093 1, ,093 ERG O&M cost re-based on Bloomberg Index ERG O&M cost +30% 0% -18% // Wind farm availability factor (%) Significant O&M costs reduction in Italy (down 25% on average) Constantly delivering excellent performance of wind assets 15

16 ENERGY MANAGEMENT AS A KEY SUCCESS FACTOR Sun Wind Partial modulation Discontinuous - low modulation Flexible modulation Flexible high modulation Water Natural Gas Production 2017: 7TWh Total Energy Portfolio including Hedging: 12TWh 2018 expected down 50% thanks to hedging strategy 16

17 THE ENERGY TRANSITION: A PROFOUND CHANGE IN COMPETITIVE AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

18 REGULATORY AND COMPETITIVE GAME CHANGERS FROM INCENTIVES TO AUCTIONS Competitive pressure and higher merchant risk Only partially mitigated by the possibility to introduce PPAs WIND & SOLAR COMPETITIVE VS. TRADITIONAL SOURCES Competition amongst technologies based on costs, efficiency & dispatching strategy Europe: Map of auctions LCOE of new gas, onshore wind, and solar $/MWh - real Auctions or tender in use prior to 1Q 2016 Auctions or tender policy introduced between 1Q 2016 and 2Q 2017 Auctions or tender policy in planning No auctions Gas Onshore Wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 5/12/2017 Solar Renewables evolution: from an infrastructural sector to a competitive industry 18

19 LCOE AS A KEY LEVER TO COMPETE Key drivers affecting LCOE LCOE ( MWh) Average cross countries Ger/Fr/UK CAPEX M /MW Wind turbine 45-50% 10-15% 10% 25% Foundation & electrical BOP Substitution, Grid con. & EPC Goodwill LOW Best case: Lowest CAPEX/OPEX Lowest hurdle rate Highest FLH per year Highest availability OPEX k /MW 45% 20% 20% 16% O&M Leases Tax Others Optimization drivers differ by project/player Financing Hurdle Rate 4-7% Worst case: Performance Wind Availability 20-35% 95-98% HIGH Highest CAPEX/OPEX Highest hurdle rate Lowest FLH per year Lowest availability Source: ETRI, EWEA, Irena, BCG analysis Broad range of LCOEs requiring specific valuation by project and type of players 19

20 MOVING GREENFIELD TO REDUCE LCOE Drivers Fund / Financial player Utility (Operator) Utility (Greenfield) Top Performer CAPEX High Avg Low Low Goodwill (increasing inves.) YES YES NO NO OPEX Hurdle rate Wind Availability High Low Low Low Low High High High Avg Avg Avg High Low High High High LCOE Average cross countries Ger/Fra/UK HIGH Today LOW 20

21 STRATEGY & RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

22 ERG STRATEGIC OPTIONS ERG Group current geographical presence Country/Business attractiveness for ERG Presence: 7 countries Installed capacity: 2.8GW Technologies: 4 Business/Technology Reference Geographies Co-development & Greenfield Wind Repowering& Reblading Wind M&A Geographical presence Solar Business/ Technology Wind Sun Water Natural Gas O&M and TCM O&M and TCM Focus on technical operating efficiency 22

23 ERG CAPACITY EVOLUTION THREE MAIN CLUSTERS TO GROW Growth in installed capacity (MW) M&A: +250MW (1) 2,774 (2) 3, MW Repowering: +260MW Greenfield & Co Dev: +350MW 1, MW 199 // +50% on existing Wind and Solar installed capacity E 17% 15% Wind Natural Gas 2,774 (2) 19% 3,600 64% Sun Water 4% 68% 13% (1) It includes ForVEI acquisition (2) 2017 Capacity net of Broackghboy wind farm in UK (47.5MW) 23

24 ABROAD FOCUS ON CO-DEV & GREENFIELD

25 A SOLID PIPELINE TO SUSTAIN GROWTH 350 Greenfield & Co-dev CAPEX: 444mn >1,300 70% 30% Greenfield Co-Dev >800 MW Secured: France - Vent D Est 16MW - Vaa2 13MW 350 Germany - Linda 22MW Undergoing Secured 17% 40% UK - Evishagaran 35MW - Sandy Knowe 49MW Gross Pipeline under scrutiny Pipeline with high success rate Pipeline included in BP Pipeline creates the basis for a sustainable long term growth 25

26 BOOSTED GROWTH IN UK Deal description On August 2, 2018 ERG acquired 100% of Creag Riabhach Wind Farm 79.2MW authorized project in Scotland Construction to start in 2020 Entry into operation by March 2022 Expected production: 250GWh, more than 3,000 heq per year Total Capex: 89mn GBP ( 98mn) Evishagaran Sandy Knowe Creag Riabhach Strategic rationale Boosting ERG growth strategy in UK Secured pipeline in UK to increase from 84MW to 163MW The project will enable to accelerate the path towards the BP targets Wind Pipeline 26

27 GREENFIELD DEVELOPMENT WELL ON TRACK Pipeline included in BP Pipeline as of today Secured: 135MW France - Vent D Est (1) 16MW - Vaa2 (2) 13MW Germany - Linda 22MW UK - Evishagaran 35MW - Sandy Knowe 49MW 40% 70% Secured: 247MW France - Vent D Est (1) 16MW - Vaa2 (2) 13MW - Vaa2 ext. 7MW - Le Melier (1) 8MW - Torfou (2) 18MW Germany - Linda (2) 22MW UK - Evishagaran 35MW - Sandy Knowe 49MW - Creag Riabhach 79MW 13 Pipeline included in BP Pipeline as of today Undergoing Secured Under construction (1) In exercise (2) Under construction 27

28 ITALY FOCUS ON REPOWERING & REBLADING

29 REPOWERING & REBLADING 1,092MW Italy +300MW eligible for Reblading in 18 months MW eligible for RPW/RBL MW ending incentives in the Plan period All eligible for repowering Criteria to include MW in BP for Reblading: Incentives beyond BP technology fitting to V47 technology quite comfortable success rates low double digit returns 64MW RBL 153MW RPW Total in BP Criteria to include MW in BP for Repowering: end of incentives technology below 1MW quite comfortable success rates low double digit returns Repowering & Reblading as a way to exploit asset base with new technologies and extend its technical life Flexible investment plan potentially upgradable 29

30 REPOWERING IN A NUTSHELL MW (1) (1) Repowering on 6 wind farms CAPEX: 402mn Production (GWh) 4X 1, N. of WTG 1/2 100 Post-Repowering Pre-Repowering 30

31 REBLADING IN A NUTSHELL MW Production (GWh) +16% 160 Post-Repowering Pre-Repowering 138 N. of WTG CAPEX for Reblading: 16mn Reblading ready in 14/18 months Mainly based on V47 WTGs as technology already secured MWs benefiting of incentives ending beyond BP 31

32 REPOWERING & REBLADING IN PROGRESS Repowering Reblading Engineering for Authorization Authorization process Construction MW for RPW in BP MW for RPW as of 03/08/2018 MW for RPW at end BP MW for RBL in BP MW for RBL as of 03/08/ projects entered into the permitting phase 1 project to apply for authorization by 3Q 2018 Engineering in course for 1 project, to start permitting by year end 1 project under construction 2 projects in the permitting phase 1 project in the engineering phase 32

33 FOCUS ON M&A

34 M&A TO SUPPORT ERG GROWTH IN KEY COUNTRIES MW through M&A over the last 5 years Total MW: 1,600 MW PER YEAR: > Business/Technology M&A Strategy Reference Geographies // Wind Italy Total invested capital: 2.7bn Solar Hydro 986 1,022 Invested capital per year: >500mn +100MW MW (1) // M&A CAPEX: 687mn (1) Opportunistic approach to consolidate leading positions in the core countries Short term growth approach to support greenfield Value creation leveraging on strong M&A track record (1) It includes ForVEI acquisition in Italy (89MW) for an EV of 337mn 34

35 BOOSTED GROWTH IN FRANCE Deal description On April 6, 2018 ERG reached an agreement with IMPAX Energy Holding Cooperatief for the acquisition of: Melier wind farm: 8MW COD November 2016 (estimated annual production = 23GWh) Torfou wind farm: 18MW under construction COD expected by 2018 (estimated annual production=48gwh) Pipeline of about 750MW made up as follows: - Wave I: 101MW at an advanced stage of development, expected on stream in 2H Wave II: 143MW at an intermediate stage of development, on stream in 2H Wave III: 500MW early stage, beyond BP period Included in the transaction a team of 12 people with a proven track record in greenfield projects EV at 57mn, of which 17mn of PF, plus 5mn earn out related to the pipeline Le Melier: 8MW Wave II Torfou: 17.6MW Wave I Wave II Strategic rationales Boosting ERG growth strategy in France with installed capacity to reach 300MW at Closing Internalization of a team of proven experience in the Sector and its know-how The pipeline will enable to pursue organic growth as envisaged in ERG s BP Wave II Wave I Wave I Wave I Wave II Wave I Wave II Offices O&M Warehouse Operating In permitting 35

36 NEWCO WITH QUERCUS IN THE SOLAR IN ITALY Deal description On August 3, 2018 ERG and Quercus Assets Selection Sarl signed an agreement for the constitution of ERG Q Solar1 (60% ERG, 40% Quercus) active in the solar sector in Italy focus on acquisition of small solar plants (below 1MW) for a total target up to 150MW by 2021 total expected CAPEX up to 350mn Governance Structure 60% 40% Energy Management ERG aims at internalizing O&M & Asset Management in the MT to exploit further synergies BoD: Chairman (1) CEO CFO 2 Directors 2 Directors M&A Asset Management Asset Management (1) With casting vote Investment Approval based on predefined guidelines Low Double Digit target return on Equity (at premium vs traditional M&A) 36

37 NEWCO: STRATEGIC RATIONALE AND TARGETS Approach & Strategic rationale Potential targets: MW plants Dedicated M&A team, based on a standardized business model Quick & Efficient decision making process Focus on medium small plants sector, with low liquidity Competitive returns vs. large scale M&A Way out clause exercisable in 18 months MEDIUM SIZE 1 MW < C < 5 MW MEDIUM/SMALL SIZE 0.2 MW < C < 1 MW BIG SIZE C > 5 MW 1.8 GW 184 plants 2.3 GW 958 plants 7.3GW 10,638 plants Of which ca. 3GW (5,000 plants) on the market/potential real targets Target up to 150MW ULTRA SMALL SIZE C < 0.2 MW 7.8GW 720,273 plants 37

38 BUSINESS PLAN - TARGETS

39 INSTALLED CAPACITY EVOLUTION Total Growth: 850 Total Growth: ,774 (1) , ,600 31% 40% 32% 28% 24% 24% Unsecured RPW 39% 38% 37% Secured 3% 4% 19% 18% 15% 17% 17% 13% 2017 M&A M&A Greenfield 2018E Repowering Wind & Greenfield Solar & Co-Dev Solar & Co-Dev 2022E Wind abroad Wind Italy Sun Water Natural Gas A solid growth path leveraging on greenfield, repowering and M&A (1) 2017 Capacity net of Brockaghboy wind farm in UK (47.5MW) 39

40 FROM INCENTIVES TO MERCHANT Production evolution: Merchant vs. Incentives (TWh) % % 60% Merchant Incentives (1) 51% 47% 40% // E 2022E Merchant revenues are steadly growing with a solid base of incentives (1) It includes Solar production from 2018 onwards 40

41 A BIGGER & DIVERSIFIED ELECTRICITY PORTFOLIO Wind Capacity 2,500MW Sun Capacity 150MW Water Capacity 527MW Natural Gas Capacity 480MW Annual Production 5.4TWh Annual Production 0.2TWh Annual Production 1.5TWh Annual Production 2.9TWh Total 2022 Expected Production: 10TWh Total Energy Portfolio including hedging & other sales: 15TWh 41

42 EBITDA EVOLUTION (8) (20) (25) 25 (5) Sigillo End of E GCs incentives Scenario Hydro volumes Others Growth (8) (80) 5 26 (5) // // E 2020E 2022E Sigillo End of Hydro E GCs incentives (1) Scenario volumes Others Growth Sun Wind Water Natural Gas Corporate M&A Wind Greenfield & Co Dev Repowering & Reblading EBITDA growth based on industrial efficiency and strong rise in renewable asset base (1) It includes wind incentives phasing out and white certificates termination as of

43 CAPEX EVOLUTION Capex 1.68bn Total M&A: 0.69bn Total Growth: 1.55bn 94 Maintenance (1) Greenfield & Co Dev Repowering & Reblading M&A Wind M&A Solar M&A Wind & Solar ForVEI Acquisition A massive and flexible investment plan for growth (1) It includes CAPEX for Mini Hydro for 13mn 43

44 ERG : FINANCIAL STRATEGY achievements Financial Strategy 1 ERG Hydro Acquisition Loan = 700mn 1 Corporate Loan / Bond Issue 2 DCM Debut Private Placement = 100mn 2 Project Finance for incentivized assets 3 New Funding Asset Base = 290mn 4 Liability Management = 670mn 3 Liability Management 1,448 1,557 1,233 1,260 1,340 1,200 Bond Bond Issue/Corporate Corporate Project Financing // // Liquidity NFP NFP/EBITDA x 3.4x E 2020E 2022E 2.6x 2.7x 2.7x 2.1x Gross KD 4.0% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 2.9% From an Asset based financing to a Corporate/Debt Capital Market based financing 44

45 LIABILITY MANAGEMENT IN 1H 2018 Actions Results 1 Repricing of PFs for 190mn, mainly for solar assets 1 Net KD reduction of 1% as of 2H Early settlement of the lease agreements for solar assets and replacement with corporate loan for 70mn 2 1 year extension of debt duration 3 Refinancing of ERG Eolica Adriatica PF for 98mn 4 Corporate loan refinancing for 150mn 3 4.5mn reduction of net financial costs per year Liability Management for about 500mn in 1H

46 STRONG CASH GENERATION CAPEX: 1, (2,040) 690 (290) 990 Maintenance Greenfield & Repowering 1,233 1,200 NFP 2017 CAPEX (1) Acquisitions Disposals (2) Dividends Deleverage (3) NFP 2022 Average annual FCF Yield (4) at 16% in the plan period (1) CAPEX includes Greenfield & co Development and Repowering (2) Disposals include: 2018 proceeds related to TotalErg Disposal ( 180mn) and Brockaghboy wind farm disposal (ca. 108mn) (3) It includes net working capital, taxes and net financial costs (4) FCF Yield: EBITDA after working capital, taxes and net financial costs, deducted maintenance CAPEX, on market cap (share price at 16.4) 46

47 CSR DRIVERS Tackling climate change People enhancing Sustainable thinking sustainable acting - Avoided CO 2 : 15mtons - New leadership model - CDP reporting - Avoided TEP: 5m TEP - Carbon Index: down 14% - Continous efforts on extracting value from our technology - Enhancing our integrated generation portfolio - Human Capital Coverage - Skills development - Integration of HSE certifications according to ONE Company Model - Consolidating relations with communities - Technological development 47

48 KPI IN THE PLAN PERIOD E Capacity installed Total: 2,774MW 17% 19% 64% 1,767MW + 700MW Wind + 150MW Solar 3,600MW 15% 4% 13% 68% 2,486MW Wind Sun Water Natural Gas Wind: 46% 38% 62% 54% + 450MW Abroad + 70% Abroad Capacity Italy Abroad EBITDA 472mn 16% 19% 65% + 18% 560mn 6% 22% 10% 62% Wind Sun Water Natural Gas Total Growth: 1.55bn CAPEX Total Capex: 1.68bn Maintenance Greenfield Repowering & Reblading ForVEI Acquisition M&A Debt Dividends Net Debt from 1.23bn to 1.2bn. Cash generation about 2bn NFP/EBITDA: <3X New ordinary DPS at 0.75/share Extraordinary dividend of 0.4/share to be paid in May

49 2Q 2018 RESULTS

50 HIGHLIGHTS: KEY FIGURES 258 Adjusted EBITDA ( mn) 277 CCGT Hydro Solar Wind Corporate EBITDA Margin 72 Adjusted Net Profit ( mn) Restated (1) 1H H 2018 Restated (1) 2Q Q 2018 NFP ( mn) Restated (1) 1H H 2018 Restated (1) 2Q Q ,233 1,466 (2) NFP excl. Derivatives Derivatives Leverage 31/12/2017 Good results thanks to ERG generation mix (1) It excludes TE contribution for 8.6mn in 2Q 2017 and 14.8mn in 1H 2017 (2) It includes Vendor Loan to api for 36mn. 30/06/

51 ADJUSTED COSTS P&L 1H 2018 Restated 1H 2017 Euro millions 2Q 2018 Restated 2Q Adjusted EBITDA (136) (126) Amortization and depreciation (68) (64) Adjusted EBIT (38) (34) Net financial income (expenses) (20) (18) 0 (0) Net income (loss) from equity investments (0) (0) Adjusted Results before taxes (27) (26) Income taxes (8) (7) Adjusted Results for the period (0) 0 Minority interests (0) Adjusted Net Profit % 26% Tax Rate 28% 28% Note: figures based on NO GAAP measures 51

52 1H 2018 CASH FLOW STATEMENT 425 (285) Net operating cash flow of 77mn 1,466 1,233 (277) (3) % 40% Net Debt 31/12/2017 Adj. EBITDA Net working Financial Net Debt CAPEX Others Dividends M&A Disposals (2) capital charges (1) 30/06/2018 Leverage (1) Acquisitions include: Vent d Est for 12mn, Vaa2 extension for 1mn, Epuron for 67.3mn and ForVEI consolidation for 345mn (2) It includes 179mn referred to TotalERG disposal (on January 10, 2018), and 106mn referred to Brockaghboy disposal (on March 8, 2018) 52

53 GUIDANCE 277 Adj. EBITDA: Guidance raised from 475mn to mn range 1H FCST (1) Guidance range Guidance Actual CAPEX: Guidance increased to mn range to include recent agreement for further development in the solar business 1H FCST 1,466 (2) 1,350 NFP: Guidance increased to 1.35bn 1H FCST (1) CAPEX include the closing of Vent d Est acquisition (which took place on March 22, 2018 amounting to 12mn), and ForVEI consolidation (whose acquisition took place on January 12, 2018) for 345mn (2) It includes Vendor Loan to api for 36mn 53