Figure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart.

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1 BINGO!? Today we reached the ideal SPX2625 target to the T (SPX ) for wave-a. There s now negative divergence again on the hourly RSI5 and the hourly MACD (see Fig 1), while the daily indicators (on all indices) are overbought and in some cases showing possible negative divergences (see Fig 2, 3). The SPX and NAS completed a picture-perfect impulse wave up off the SPX2560 low, while on the S&P500 the leading diagonal remains in play (see Fig. 1). A swift retrace to the diagonal s start at SPX2444 would normally happen, but there s now support in the SPX2500 +/- 20p zone (See Fig 2). Time will tell and for now we need to see a) 1 st a break below the lower dotted blue uptrend line; b) then a break below SPX2601/NAS6975 (as that level can still be a micro-4 target, which would then send micro-5 to SPX2630); c) then a break below SPX2594, and d) finally a break below SPX2560. With each successive step the Bears get closer and closer to confirming wave-b, with confirmation once step d is completed. Figure 1. SPX 60 min & NAS 1-min chart. SPX2625 reached, NAS fell (so far) 55p (0.8%) short. Break below lower blue trendline, and SPX2601 will be first sign wave-a topped and wave-b to ideally SPX /- 20p is underway. 1 P a g e

2 The S&P500 fulfilled its symmetry target breakout of SPX2625, the 50d SMA (SPX2628) tag and the retest of broken prior (blue) uptrend line support (blue dotted line). The possible negative divergence on the daily RSI5 was erased to day, but still exhibits on the NAS, NDX and RUT (see Fig. 3) A move over SPX2640 is still needed to suggest something else is going on. For now, it has taken 15 days to retrace ~50% of a prior 14-day decline, which still means we should view the current rally -until proven otherwise- as (part of) a counter trend bounce and not the start of a new Bull. Figure 2. S&P500 daily charts. SPX2625 target reached. 2 P a g e

3 The NDX could still try to reach the 50% retrace, but left us with a bearish reversal candle today, overbought conditions, possible negative divergence on the RSI5 and clear negative divergence on the On Balance Volume. The latter means that volume on down days has eclipsed that of on up days. Figure 3. NDX daily charts. Can still try to ideally reach the 50% retrace at ~$6795 +/- 5p, but getting overbought, while there is negative divergence on RSI5 and On Balance Volume (OBV). 3 P a g e

4 Today I wanted to show the VIX, which found support where it had to at $18, and closed higher 2.4% today, while most major indices closed higher as well. The chart also shows clearly how the S&P500 has moved into the first prior support may now act as resistance zone Clearly price will have to break above this S/R zone to target 2650/2700. But for now, VIX is suggesting today could have been a reversal day, which is in line with the turn-dates (GANN and Bradley) I showed yesterday Figure 4. VIX daily charts. Found support at $18 level and closed higher while most major US indices closed higher as well. S&P500 has run into upper end of first S/R zone. 4 P a g e

5 Today market breadth -per the McClellan Oscillators (MO)- closed 3p lower at +86 for the S&P (SPXMO) and lower for the NDX and DOW as well, see table 1, not confirming today s higher price. It is still plenty positive as still more stocks are advancing then declining, but the negative divergence shown yesterday continues. The Summation Indices remain on a Buy, but the NYSI and NASI s RSI5 remain overbought. The put/call ratios -CPC (total put/call ratio) and CPCE (equities only)- ended neutral today, while the 1-min TICK was even more anemic with no >+800 peaks and no < -800 peaks (max +768, min -797). Buying has dried up completely, but still no real selling either. In the mean time, none of the Bullish Percent Index charts, except for the NDX, has reached >50%, which is required to give a Bullish Bias to the underlying index. The same can be said for the percent stocks above their 200d SMA in the S&P500, DJIA, and NDX (not shown), which is still only at 33, 47 and 40%; respectively. Hence, it appears the current advance is still not experiencing the all clear signs on all fronts. Figure 5. NYMO: Bullish Percent Index chart still not Bullish. SPXSI: All SIs remains on buy, as breadth is positive. 5 P a g e

6 Bottomline: The S&P500 has reached it s ideal SPX2625 target, while the NAS, NDX, DIA and RUT are only inches away (NAS , NDX6795, DIA24335 and RUT1470). Breadth remains strong, but didn t confirm today s higher prices as it mostly ended lower for the day. For the S&P500 a drop below SPX2601 will be a first sign wave-a has topped and wave-b to ideally SPX /- 20p is underway. For the NAS this first sign equates to the $6975 level. In essence, most indices have now achieved what they need to, while getting overbought, running into resistance, retesting broken support etc. Although there s thus still marginal upside potential left under my preferred view that wave-a is underway, with the turn dates coming up (which always are +/- 2-3 days) and the aformentioned, the stars continue to be aligned for a wave-a top (unless the CBers throw more fuel on the fire you never know ) Table 1. Buy/Sell Signals based on Summation Indices. Table 2. Buy/Sell for the Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs) SPY & SH and performance (intermediate- and long-term only) based on mechanical trading system. Short-term and intermediate-term is now available on my private twitter feed. Aloha, Dr. Arnout, aka Soul, ter Schure 2019, Intelligent Investing, LLC. This copyrighted daily periodical is published on most stock market trading days by Intelligent Investing, LLC, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of our information for trading and investing are the sole responsibility of the reader and cannot be construed as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. 6 P a g e