Central Bank of Egypt

Transcription

1 Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy FY 2012/13 Quarterly Report Volume No. (42)

2 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Preface The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is a series produced by the Economic Research Sector in the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). The report tracks, on quarterly basis, the international transactions that the Egyptian economy conducts with the rest of the world. It relies, for this purpose, on the national statistics that are regularly compiled in line with the SDDS prescriptions. Enthused by the CBE keenness to enhance its disclosure, transparency and communication policy, the report is meant to serve several functions. Generally, it spreads, to a broad array of readers, knowledge of Egypt s external accounts including the balance of payments, external debt, international investment position and external liquidity. Particularly, it monitors key external sector performance indicators of the economy in order to identify areas of policy needs. The information revealed in this series has also significant implications for decision-making, investment climate, doing-business environment and sovereign credit ratings. The report contains 6 sections. The first three give a performance portrait of the key components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP), tourism sector and external liquidity. The fourth and fifth review developments related to Egypt s external debt in its different classifications, in addition to the Egyptian pound exchange rate performance. The sixth section is a statistical part that provides more details on the above mentioned four sections. This is in addition to a part that contains definitions of the key terms used in the report, as well as other miscellaneous information. The report is downloadable from CBE website Hard copies can be obtained from the Economic Research Sector, 8th floor, 54 El Gomhouria Street, Cairo.

3 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Section I: Section II: Section III: Section IV: Table of Contents Page Overview Balance of Payments BOP Performance. 1 1-Current Account 1 2-Capital and Financial Account 3 Tourism Sector Performance Summary 5 A-Tourism Sector Performance 6 B- Hotel Sector Performance 7 External Liquidity A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 9 B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 9 External Debt A - Breakdown by Maturity 11 B - Breakdown by Type 12 C - Breakdown by Currency 12 D - Breakdown by Creditor 13 E - Breakdown by Debtor 13 F - External Debt Indicators 14 G - External Debt Sustainability and Global 15 Comparison Section V: Exchange Rate Developments 17 Statistical Section: Appendix I 1- Balance of Payments International Investment Position (IIP) Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 24 4-NIR & NFA at Banks 25 5-External Debt by Type 26 6-External Debt Indicators 27 7-External Debt by Debtor 28 8-Exchange Rates 29 Appendix II A- Medium-and long- Term External Debt B- Projected Medium-and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service C- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt versus US Dollar 63 Appendix III Box. (1): Egypt's subscription to SDDS and data quality dimensions 66 Box. (2): Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions 67 Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt 68 Box. (4): Tourism Market Diversification 69 Definitions and Terminology 70

4 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Egypt's transactions with the external world recorded an overall BOP surplus of US$ million in FY 2012/2013 (against a deficit of US$ 11.3 billion a year earlier). The improvement in BOP performance came on the back of the decline to US$ 5.6 billion in the current account deficit (from US$ 10.1 billion). In addition, the capital and financial account showed a marked increase in net inflows, to register US$ 9.7 billion (against US$ 1.0 billion) The decline in the current account deficit was attributed to the decrease in the trade deficit to US$ 31.5 billion (from US$ 34.1 billion), the rise in transportation receipts to US$ 9.2 billion (from US$ 8.6 billion), the increase in tourism revenues to US$ 9.7 billion (from US$ 9.4 billion), the decline in investment income payments to US$ 5.9 billion (from US$ 6.7 billion) and the rise in unrequited transfers to US$ 19.3 billion (from US$ 18.4 billion). The capital and financial account revealed that portfolio investment in Egypt reversed to a net inflow of about US$ 1.5 billion (from a net outflow of US$ 5.0 billion). Meanwhile, FDI in Egypt recorded a net inflow of US$ 3.0 billion (against US$ 4.0 billion). Egypt's International Investment Position (IIP)* continued to register net liabilities, realizing US$ 65.2 billion at end-dec. 2012, up from US$ 52.6 billion at end-dec and US$ 43.5 billion at end-dec Net international reserves (NIR) decreased by US$ 0.6 billion during FY 2012/13, to reach US$ 14.9 billion at end of June 2013, covering 3.1 months of merchandise imports. The decrease was mainly ascribed to Overview the fall in the value of gold by the equivalent of US$ 0.8 billion after its annual revaluation at end of June 2013, whereas there was an increase in foreign currencies by about US$ 0.2 billion worth. On December 30, 2012, the CBE decided to introduce a new mechanism, to run alongside with the foreign exchange interbank system (FX Auction). During the report s preparation, NIR increased to US$ 18.6 billion at end of October Banks' net foreign assets amounted to US$ 12.1 billion at end of June 2013, down by US$ 1.3 billion from end of June Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 3.9 percent, to reach US$ 32.0 billion at end of June As a percentage of total deposits, they made up 21.3%. Total external debt increased by US$ 8.8 billion to US$ 43.2 billion at end of June 2013, from US$ 34.4 billion at end of June The external debt has remained within manageable limits and its position continued to have a favorable structure, with 83.7 percent of the total representing the share of the medium and long term debt and 97.0 percent being contributed by the public sector. Although the size of external debt has increased over the transitional period, the external debt traditional and sustainability indicators have remained within manageable limits. The weighted average of the interbank foreign exchange market rate reached EGP per US dollar at end of June 2013, against EGP at end of June Accordingly, the Egyptian pound inter-bank rate depreciated by 13.6 percent during FY 2012/2013. * IIP statement was first introduced in Volume 20 of the External Position Report, to be updated annually at end of December each year within the SDDS requirements..

5 Section I Balance of Payments (BOP)

6 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 1 E gypt's BOP unfolded an overall surplus of US$ million (against a deficit of US$ 11.3 billion a year earlier).the improvement in BOP performance came on the back of the decline to US$ 5.6 billion in the current account deficit (from US$ 10.1 billion). In addition, the capital and financial account showed a marked increase in net inflows, to register US$ 9.7 billion (against US$ 1.0 billion). Chart (1) shows developments in Egypt s BOP main components, on net and quarterly basis. US$ bn Chart (1): BOP Recent Performance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 - Current Account 2011/ /2013 The current account deficit declined during FY 2012/2013 to US$ 5.6 billion (2.1 percent of GDP) from US$ 10.1 billion (3.9 percent of GDP), thanks to the drop of US$ 2.6 billion in the trade deficit to US$ 31.5 billion, the rise in services and income surplus by 19.8 percent to US$ 6.7 billion (from US$ 5.6 billion) and the surge in net unrequited transfers to US$ 19.3 billion (from US$ 18.4 billion). BOP Performance Capital & Financial Account Current Account Balance Overall Balance 1.1: Trade on Goods The trade volume decreased by 0.9 percent, to reach US$ 83.5 billion (30.7 percent of GDP). The trade deficit narrowed by US$ 2.6 billion, to US$ 31.5 billion during Fiscal Year 2012/13 (11.6 percent of GDP) from US$ 34.1 billion (13.0 percent of GDP) a year earlier, due to the following developments: Merchandise exports (FOB) increased to 26.0 billion, due to a rise in both oil exports by 7.0 percent (46.2 percent of total exports) and non-oil exports by 0.9 percent (53.8 percent of the total). As a result, the export/import ratio increased to 45.2 percent during Fiscal Year 2012/13, from 42.3 percent a year earlier. Merchandise imports (CIF) decreased by 2.9 percent to US$ 57.5 billion, due to the decrease in non-oil imports by 5.1 percent (78.3 percent of total imports) and the pick up in oil imports by 6.1 percent (21.7 percent of total imports) US $ bn Chart(2):Oil & Non oil Exports and Imports Fiscal Year 2010/ / /2013 oil exports non oil exports oil imports non oil imports Trade Balance

7 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 2 The following charts illustrate the distribution of commodity exports by degree of processing and imports by degree of use, during Fiscal Year 2012/ : Services & Income Balance The surplus on services & income balance scaled up by 19.8 percent, to record US$ 6.7 billion (2.5 percent of GDP), as a result of the increase in services & income receipts by 6.5 percent and the slight rise in services & income payments by 1.6 percent, as shown in charts (5) & (6). 1.0 Fuel, mineral oils & products 46.8 % Fuel, mineral oils & products 11.5% US$ bn Chart (3): Proceeds of Merchandise Exports US$26.0 bn Raw materials 5.2% Semifinished goods 7.7% Chart (4):Payments for Merchandise Imports US$57.5 bn, of which Raw materials 15.1% Intermediate goods 27.8% Investment goods 17.1% Chart (5):Services Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011/ /2013 Finished goods 40.3% Consumer goods 22.5% 1.2.1: Services & income receipts increased by 6.5 percent, to US$ 22.2 billion (against US$ 20.9 billion), driven by the increase in the main items as follows: Transportation receipts by 7.0 percent to US$ 9.2 billion, spurred by the larger receipts of Egyptian shipping and airlines companies (despite the 3.4 percent decrease in Suez Canal receipts to reach only US$ 5.0 billion against US$ 5.2 billion). Tourism revenues by 3.5 percent to US$ 9.7 billion (from US$ 9.4 billion), reflecting the pickup of 8.1 percent in the number of tourist nights to post million nights (against million nights). See Appendix III, Box 4. Other services receipts by 13.0 percent to about US$ 2.6 billion, mainly due to the rise of construction and communication services. Government Services receipts to US$ million (from US$ million), reflecting higher other government receipts, and expenses of foreign embassies located in Egypt. Conversely, Investment income receipts decreased by 19.6 percent to US$ million (from US$ million), mainly due to the contraction in direct investment income receipts. Chart(6): Income Balance US $ bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011/ /2013 Transportation Services Balance Government Services Balance Services Balance Tourism Services Balance Other Services Balance Income Receipts Income Payments Income Balance

8 Central Bank of Egypt External Position : Services & Income payments increased by 1.6 percent, to about US$ 15.5 billion (from US$ 15.3 billion). This was attributed to the increase in the following items: Travel payments by 17.3 percent, to US$ 2.9 billion, mainly due to Visa Card payments, and travel & hotel companies payments. Transportation Payments by 20.6 percent to US$ 1.7 billion, due to higher payments of foreign shipping companies, payments made on account of rental of planes from abroad and amounts transferred for the maintenance of airplanes at foreign airports. Other services payments by 6.0 percent, to about US$ 3.7 billion, driven by larger amounts transferred for foreign petroleum companies, construction and building services, and higher royalties and license fees. Government Services payments by 8.0 percent, to US$ 1.2 billion, reflecting the increase in other government payments. Conversely, investment income payments decreased by 11.6 percent to US$ 5.9 billion, as a result of lower transfer of profit from foreign companies in Egypt and interest and dividends on bonds and securities. 1.3: Unrequited transfers (Net) As shown in chart (7), unrequited transfers (net) increased by 4.7 percent, to US$ 19.3 billion, (from US$ 18.4 billion). It reflected the rise in net private transfers by 3.7 percent, to US$ 18.4 billion (mainly due to the increase in workers' remittances by 3.9 percent to US$ 18.7 billion) and the rise in net official transfers by 32.1 percent, to US$ million, due to the rise in cash grants to Egyptian government. - US$ bn Chart(7): Unrequited Transfers (Net) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011/ /2013 Private Transfers (Net) Workers' Remittances Official Transfers (Net) Against this background, most external balance indicators are seen to be improved in the reporting year, as shown in chart (8). Chart(8): External Balance Indicators Merchandise Exports / Merchandise Imports Services Receipts / Services Payments Current Receipts / Current Payments Current Receipts (excluding official transfers) / Current Payments 2- Capital and Financial Account The capital and financial account showed a marked increase in net inflows, to register US$ 9.7 billion (against US$ 1.0 billion) as an outcome of the following developments: A-Portfolio investment in Egypt reversed to a net inflow of US$ 1.5 billion (from a net outflow of US$ 5.0 billion), mainly due to the issuance of Egyptian government bonds at a value of US$ 2.5 billion. B -Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Egypt retreated by US$ 1.0 billion to US$ 3.0 billion. (%) / /2013

9 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 4 This was mainly ascribed to the drop in the proceeds of selling local entities to non-residents to reach only US$ million (against US$ 1.7 billion). This came despite the fact that net inflows of greenfield investments rose to US$ 2.4 billion (from US$ 2.1 billion), and those of net oil sector investments increased to US$ million (from US$ million). The sectoral breakdown of total FDI inflows as depicted in chart (9) shows that the petroleum sector has the lion's share of 68.7 percent. Apart from the oil sector, the majority of FDI went into services sectors, with 7.7 percent, distributed as follows: financial sector (3.9 percent), other services sectors (2.9 percent), real estate sector (0.5 percent), both of tourism and communication sector (0.2 percent). Manufacturing sector followed, with 2.7 percent. The share of the agriculture sector was 1.5 percent, construction sector was 0.2 percent, while the remaining portion was acquired by undistributed figures. C- Medium & long term loans and suppliers' credits realized net disbursements of US$ million, (against net repayments of US$ million). This was an outcome of the increase in total disbursements to US$ 2.4 billion (from US$ 1.7 billion), while the total repayments increased to US$ 2.3 billion (from US$ 2.0 billion). D- Short term suppliers' credits recorded a net inflow of US$ million (against US$ million). E- Net foreign assets and liabilities of the banking sector and other sectors posted an inflow of US$ 4.9 billion, (against US$ 2.3 billion), mainly because of the pickup in the deposits transferred from some Arab countries. Chart (9): Total FDI in Egypt by Ecnomic Sector 2012/2013 Agriculture sector 1.5% Construction sector 0.2% Manufacturing sector 2.7% Undistributed sector 19.2% Real Estate sector 0.5% Financial sector 3.9% Services Sector 7.7% Tourism sector 0.2% Communication sector 0.2% Petroleum sector 68.7% Other Services 2.9%

10 Section II Tourism Sector Performance

11 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 5 Tourism Sector Performance during 2012/2013: The data accumulated for the year 2012/2013 point to an increase in tourist arrivals, nights and receipts when compared with the previous year levels. This indicates an initial recovery in tourism sector, despite the lower average expenditure per night from US$ 71.5/night in the previous year to US$ 68.0/night in 2012/2013*. Tourism Sector Performance during Q4 2012/2013: According to the balance of payments data, tourism receipts recorded a decrease of US$ million or 28.4 percent to US$ million, due to the negative growth in both tourist nights (-11.4 percent) and the average expenditure per night (-19.2 percent). While Egypt's tourism sector slowed down, Q-over-Q in the fourth quarter of 2012/13, it witnessed mixed results; an improvement in the number of tourist arrivals (+11.5 percent), and a decline both in tourist nights (-11.4 percent) and the average expenditure per night (from US$ 74.4/night to US$ 60.1/night). Data show that visitors stayed lower on average (9.1 nights per person, compared to 11.4 nights per person). Tourists coming from the Middle East region and European countries headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor (10.1 and 9.2 nights per visitor, respectively). Since data on travel receipts and the number of tourist nights and arrivals, on a quarterly basis, typically reaffirm the * Average expenditure per tourist night calculated as a simple mean of US$ 74.4/night realized in Q1, US$ 70.3/night in Q2, US$ 67.0/night in Q3, and US$ 60.1/night in Q4. Summary same seasonal pattern, as the fourth quarter is seasonally the runner up, coming after the first quarter which is the strongest of the year, while the third quarter is seasonally the weakest, data of 2012/2013 are no longer reflecting the same seasonal pattern due to unusual drops in tourism nights and receipts. Hotel Sector Performance: In terms of hotel sector performance and its regional comparison during the H2 of 2012/2013, Egyptian hotels experienced mixed results; a noticed bouncing in terms of "average daily rate per room" and drops in "revenue per available room", and "occupancy rate". The regional comparison led to the fact that Egyptian hotels offered extremely low prices to offset low visitor arrivals during the period, ranking the Egyptian hotels the cheapest in the MENA region. Tourism Market Diversification: According to the number of tourist arrivals, over the 1989/ /13 period, Egypt's tourism market witnessed a shift from diversification towards concentration in favor to European region, as the Herfindahl- Hirschman Index (HHI) reached It shed light on the necessary steps towards a more diversified tourism market, to be able to mitigate any future demand shocks, especially from Eurozone. Nevertheless, Egypt's market is still more diversified when compared to some neighboring countries in the MENA region. (See Box 4, Appendix III).

12 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 6 A- Tourism Sector Performance Despite the fact that tourism sector experienced a slowdown, Q-over-Q in the fourth quarter of 2012/13, it witnessed mixed results; an improvement in the number of tourist arrivals and a decline in both tourist nights and the average expenditure per night. Ministry of Tourism figures show that a total of 3058 thousand tourists came from all over the world and spent thousand nights in Q4 of 2012/2013, constituting an increase of 11.5 percent in the number of tourist arrivals and a decrease of 11.4 percent in the number of nights, compared with the same period of the previous year. The expansion in tourist arrivals resulted from more visitors coming from: European countries (67.6 percent of total increase), Middle East region (27.0 percent), African countries (3.8 percent), Asia and Pacific region (1.3 percent), and Americas (0.3 percent). Charters arriving directly to Sharm El- Sheikh and Hurghada had been a contributing factor to offset the downward effect caused by fuel surcharges and capacity changes from major airlines, along with the partial drop seen in this market, particularly Luxer, Aswan and Alexandria Chart (1): Tourist Arrivals (In Thousands) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009/ / / /2013 In contrast, the average expenditure per night decreased to US$ 60.1/night in Q4 of 2012/2013 from US$ 74.4/night a year earlier (table 1, line 7). This decrease was mainly attributable to: lower opportunities available for tourists to do more shopping during the current political transition period, and a sharp decline in the average rate per room, as hoteliers tried to maintain demand volume by lowering rates Chart (2): Travel & Tourism Receipts (USD million) The negative growth in both the number of tourist nights (-11.4 percent) and the average expenditure per night (-19.2 percent), attributed to the decrease in tourism receipts by US$ million or 28.4 percent to US$ million Q-over-Q in the fourth quarter of 2012/13. (Table 1, line 1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009/ / / /2013 Chart (3): Number of Tourist Nights (In Thousands) 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009/ / / /2013 In terms of Q-over-Q comparison, the data on travel receipts and the number of tourist nights and arrivals, over the period from Q1 of 2008/2009 to Q4 of 2011/2012, reaffirmed the same seasonal pattern, as the fourth quarter is seasonally the runner up, coming after the first quarter which is the strongest of the year, while the third quarter is seasonally the weakest. Driven by unfavorable shocks in 2012/2013, the seasonal pattern has been violated, particularly in tourism nights and receipts. During Q4 of 2012/2013, data show that visitors stayed lower, registering an average of 9.1 nights per person, compared to 11.4 nights per person a year earlier (table 1, line 6). Tourist

13 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 7 coming from Middle East countries headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor with an average of 10.1 nights per visitor. European countries were the runner up with 9.2 nights/visitor, followed by African nationals (8.1 nights/visitor), Americans (7.3 nights/visitor), and Asia & Pacific region (5.2 nights/visitor). B- Hotel Sector Performance: According to the Ministry of Tourism data, the average occupancy rate at hotels in Egypt was 39.2 percent during Q4 of 2012/2013, down slightly from 40.8 percent a year earlier, indicating a a modest slowdown in the sector. Meanwhile, it pointed to improvements in the occupancy rates when compared with the counterpart rates during Q4 of 2010/2011 (table 1, line 9). The following chart shows that the average occupancy rate at Egypts' hotels was an outcome of its opposite trends in key cities. Major cities, headed by Luxor and Aswan registered the largest decline in hotel occupancy rates, and to a less extent, came Sharm El-Sheikh when compared with Q4 during the revolution time. Meanwhile, Cairo and Hurghada registered, on average, increases in hotels' occupancy rates during the same period Chart (4): Occupancy Rate at Egypt's Hotels April May June April May June April May June April May In order to make a sound judgment on hotel sector financial performance over the time and across countries, one should combine occupancy rate with June Hurghada Sharm El-Sheikh Cairo Egypt average daily rate per room (ADR) 1 and revenue per available room (RevPAR) 2. Table 2 shows an increase of 21.1 percent on average ADR for Egypt, during the second half of 2012/2013, resulting from increases in ADR of all selected cities' hotels. The revenue per available room provides a convenient snapshot of how well a hotel is filling its rooms, as well as how much it is able to charge. As a matter of fact, the Red Sea hospitality markets have continued to register the strongest growth in RevPAR through H2 of 2012/2013, as compared to H2 of 2011/2012. Revenue per available room was the highest at Sharm El-Sheikh hotels (US$ 39, in H2 of 2012/2013, up from US$ 30 in the same period last year), while it was the lowest at Hurghada hotels (US$ 27, up by 59.0 percent from US$ 17). Meanwhile, hotels at Cairo have realized negative revenue-per-available-room growth in the H2 of 2012/2013, by 9.7 percent. In terms of regional comparison, table 3 shows that only Lebanese hotels experienced negative results in the three key performance metrics, while Saudi Arabian and Emeriti hotels witnessed positives, except for occupancy rate in Saudi Arabia which remained approximately unchanged. Meanwhile, Egyptian and Jordanian hotels experienced mixed results; progress in terms of ADR and negative results in RevPar and occupancy rate for H2 of 2012/2013. Hotels at Qatar offered the highest prices in the region, followed by Saudi Arabia and UAE. Egypts' hotels offered extremely low prices to offset low visitor arrivals during the period, ranking the Egyptian hotels the cheapest in the MENA region. 1 It represents the average daily rental income per occupied room in a given period of time. The ADR can be calculated by dividing the rooms' revenue by the number of rooms sold, excluding house use rooms from the denominators. 2 It can be calculated using the following two ways; (i) Total room revenue in a given period, net of discounts, sales tax, and meals, divided by the number of available rooms in same period. (ii) Average daily room rate multiplied by occupancy rate.

14 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 8 Table (1): Indicators of Tourism Activity 2010/ / / / / /2013 Q4 Q4 Q3 Q4 1. a. Tourism Receipts (USD mn) b. Tourism Expenditures (USD mn) Stay-over Visitors (x 1.000) Market Shares (% of Tourist Arrivals) a. European Countries b. Middle East Countries c. African Countries d. Americas e. Asia & Pacific f. Other Countries Market Shares (% of Tourist Nights) a. European Countries b. Middle East Countries c. African Countries d. Americas e. Asia & Pacific f. Other Countries Visitor Nights (x 1.000) Average Nights Spent (per Visitor) Receipts per Vistor Nights (USD/night) The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Average Occupancy Rate Luxor Aswan Sharm El-Sheikh Hurghada Cairo Alexandria Contribution to Current Receipts % Sources: CBE, MOT, and CAPMAS. Table (2): Hotels Performance in H2 of 2011/2012 & 2012/2013 ADR RevPAR Major Cities US$ US$ 2011/ /2013 Change % 2011/ /2013 Change % Cairo Overall (9.7) Hurghada Sharm El-Sheikh Egypt (AVG) Table (3): Hotels' Performance in key Arab Countries in H2 of 2012/2013 Country Occupancy ADR RevPAR Change Change Rate (US$) (US$) Change Egypt 36% % % Jordan 63% % % Lebanon 58% % % S. Arabia 74% % % UAE 79% % % Qatar 71% % % Source: Ernst & Young benchmark survey of Middle East hotel sector.

15 Section III External Liquidity

16 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 9 External Liquidity A-Net International Reserves (NIR) In order to enhance the efficiency of the forex market, CBE decided to introduce a new mechanism, to run alongside with the foreign exchange interbank system. The aim is to organize trading on the forex market and avoid depletion of international reserves that have reached critical levels, covering merely three months of merchandise imports by end December The new mechanism is a regular auction for buying/selling US dollar (FX Auction) through which banks offer their bids to CBE. The mechanism became effective 30 December During FY 2012/13, NIR decreased by US$ 0.6 billion (against US$ 11.0 billion during the previous FY) to reach US$ 14.9 billion at end of June 2013, covering 3.1 months of merchandise imports. The decrease was mainly ascribed to the fall in the value of gold by the equivalent of US$ 0.8 billion after its annual revaluation at end of June 2013, whereas there was an increase in foreign currencies by about US$ 0.2 billion worth. NIR & Months of Imports Covered ( Balance at end of Month ) Chart (1) US$ bn June10 June11 June12 June13 (Month) While this report was under preparation, NIR reached US$ 18.6 billion at end of October End of June 2012 (US$ mn) June 2013 Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Reserves/Months of Imports B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks net foreign assets declined by US$ 1.3 billion during 2012/13 (against US$ 4.3 billion in the previous FY) to reach US$ 12.1 billion at end of June Chart (2) US$ bn Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks 21.7 ( End of Month) 23.3 Assets Liabilities June10 June11 June12 June13 Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Gold Reserves/Months of Imports

17 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 10 Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 3.9% during FY 2012/2013, reaching US$ 32.0 billion at end of June On the same manner, local currency deposits increased by 16.3%. As such, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits at end of June 2013, made up 21.3%. Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies Chart (3) ( End of Month) LE bn June10 June11 June12 June13 Foreign Currency Deposits Local Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Local Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Foreign Currency Deposits %

18 Section IV External Debt

19 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 11 E gypt's external debt jumped to US$ 43.2 billion at end-june 2013, from US$ 34.4 billion at end- June This brings the increase in the stock of debt to US$ 8.8 billion, driven by the net disbursements of foreign loans, facilities and deposits in the amount of US$ 9.3 billion. The increase could have been larger but for the valuation effects 1 of US$ million. External Debt By residual maturity 2, medium and long term debt represented 76.1 percent of the total debt. In comparison, they accounted for 83.7 percent of the total by original maturity. Similarly, short-term debt showed an increase, as it represented 23.9 percent, compared to 16.3 percent classified by original maturity. A- Breakdown by Maturity By original maturity, external debt reaffirmed, at end-june 2013, its usual pattern of long-term debt predominance. Long-term debt accounted for US$ 31.0 billion or 71.5% of the total, whereas shortterm debt reached US$ 7.0 billion or 16.3%. Still, medium-term debt accounted for the smallest portion of US$ 5.2 billion or 12.2%. Chart (1) External Debt by original maturity End of June 2013 Short-term Debt by Residual Maturity End-June 2013 (US$ million) 1. Short-term debt by original maturity Medium & long-term debt maturing within one year External debt by residual maturity up to 1 year (1+2) Percentage to Total External Debt 23.9 Percentage to NIR Medium & long-term debt by residual maturity Percentage to Total External Debt 76.1 Short Term 16.3% Long Term 71.5% Medium Term 12.2% 1 The valuation effects arise because external debt is denominated in different currencies and the US dollar value, which is the international numeraire for indicating debt numbers, fluctuates over time vis-à-vis these currencies. 2 While the analytical presentation of external debt by original maturity is the norm recommended in the External Debt Statistics Guide, residual maturity presentation still draws significant attention. In other words, compilation of external debt statistics based on original maturity helps in understanding the nature of capital flows; while the remaining maturity provides a profile of debt service payments, especially those falling due in the near term, and so of potential liquidity risks facing the economy. Short term debt by residual maturity comprises all components of short term debt with original maturity of up to one year, and the amounts falling due -under medium and long term debt by original maturity- within one year or less.

20 Central Bank of Egypt External Position B- Breakdown by Type Medium- and long-term debt accounted for 83.7 percent of total debt, of which: Bilateral loans (rescheduled and non-rescheduled) owed to Paris Club members and suppliers & buyers credit, reached US$ 13.6 billion or 31.6 percent of total debt. Non-Paris Club members' debt amounted to US$ 2.4 billion or 5.5 percent of total debt. International and regional organizations' debt reached US$ 12.0 billion or 27.7 percent of total debt, up by US$ million, compared to end of June 2012 level. Government bonds and notes increased by US$ 2.3 billion, to around US$ 5.2 billion or 12.0 percent of total debt at end - June These include: (i) US$ 1.3 billion of guaranteed 10 year notes, issued in Sept. 2005; (ii) US$ million of 10-and 20 year sovereign notes issued in April 2010; (iii) US$ million of the 5 year Treasury bond issued in June 2012 to Saudi Fund for Development; and (iv) US$ 2.5 billion of the Euro-Medium Term Notes issued in May A long-term deposit of US$ 3.0 billion from Saudi Fund for Development was placed at the Central Bank of Egypt. Non-guaranteed medium - and long-term debt of the private sector decreased by US$ 34.0 million to US$ 17.3 million at end - June Short-term debt increased by US$ 4.1 billion to US$ 7.0 billion or 16.3 percent of total debt. This was mainly due to an increase in nonresidents' deposits (including Qatar's deposit at the CBE) to reach US$ 5.3 billion, and a decrease in short term credit by US$ 11.8 million to US$ 1.7 billion. The structure of external debt data reveals a secured position. The public sector owes US$ 41.9 billion or 97.0 percent of Egypt s external debt, while the private sector owes US$ 1.3 billion or 3.0 percent. Egyptian bonds and notes 12.0% Chart (2) External Debt Structure End ofjune 2013 Long Term Deposits 6.9% International & regional organizations 27.7% Short term debt 16.3% Rescheduled bilateral debt 21.9% Suppliers' & buyers' Credits 1.4% C- Breakdown by Currency Other bilateral debt 13.8% Measuring the currency composition of Egypt's external debt is an important indicator that sheds light on the external debt exposure, arising from currency markets' volatility. A breakdown of the currency composition of external debt indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency, with a relative importance of 58.6 percent of the total. This upward biased share of US dollar largely reflects the fact that there are other outstanding obligations in US dollar to creditors other than the USA (such as the African Development Bank and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development).

21 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Other important currencies were: the euro which is the runner-up (19.2 percent), the Japanese yen (7.5 percent), the Special Drawing Rights* (6.2 percent) and the Kuwaiti dinar (5.6 percent). These currencies combined accounted for 38.5 percent of the total debt. Swiss f ranc 1.0% Chart (3) External Debt by Major Currencies End of June 2013 Egy ptian Pound 0.5% US dollar 58.6% Japanese yen 7.5% Kuwaiti dinar 5.6% Euro 19.2% SDRs 6.2% Other currencies 1.4% D- Breakdown by Creditor Distribution by creditor country indicates that 27.3 percent of Egypt's external debt came from four countries; namely Germany (7.8 percent), Japan (7.2 percent), France (6.3 percent) and USA (6.0 percent). Meanwhile, 27.7 percent was owed to international organizations**; (mainly IBRD 7.6%, EIB 4.5% and ADF & AfDB 4.0%) and 21.1 percent to Arab countries (mainly Qatar, Libya and Saudi Arabia***). Chart (4) External Debt by Creditor Egyptian bonds and notes 12.0% International organizations 27.7% Other countries 8.9% June 2013 USA 6.0% France 6.3% Japan 7.2% Germany 7.8% United Arab Kingdom Countries 3.0% 21.1% Including Egypt s allocation of SDRs by the IMF. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), European Investment Bank (EIB), African Development Fund (ADF), African Development Bank (AfDB). E- Breakdown by Debtor 13 The structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor reveals that the central and local government is the main debtor, with US$ 28.5 billion or 65.9 percent of the total external debt at end-june 2013, compared with US$ 25.6 billion or 74.4 percent at end-june Chart (5) External Debt by Debtor (US$ bn) End of June Central & Local Gov ernment Monetary Authority Banks Other Sectors External debt by institutional sectors showed an increase of US$ 8.8 billion during the period under review. The bulk was in monetary authority's outstanding balances at end- June 2013, with a rise of US$ 6.5 billion (mainly due to Arab countries' deposits at CBE). Central and local government debt position increased as well, by US$ 2.9 billion. In contrast, banks' debt decreased by US$ 24.5 million and other sectors' debt by US$ million. (US$ mn) Chart (6) External Debt by Debtor share in total increase/decrease during FY 2012/ (238.6) (34.8) (100.9) (24.5) (474.0) (1497.8) 2010/ / /2013 Central & Local Gov ernment Monetary Authority Banks Other Sectors Including the US$ 1.0 billion as a long term deposit from the Saudi Fund for Development at CBE. However, it does not Include the US$ 500 million which is classified as a 5- year Treasury bond issued in June 2012 to Saudi Fund for Development.

22 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 14 F- External Debt Indicators* Egypt s external debt has remained within manageable limits as indicated by external debt to GDP ratio of 17.3 percent at end of June 2013 (compared with 13.2 percent at end of June 2012) and debt service ratio** of 6.4 percent during 2012/2013 (compared with 6.3 percent). But, as the country scrambled to raise funds to meet higher financing needs through accepting official deposits and issuing new bonds, the other traditional external debt indicators worsened, especially those related to short-term debt. The ratio of short-term debt to net international reserves jumped from 18.7 percent to 47.2 percent, owing to the 3.9 percent drop in NIR and the increase in short-term debt by US$ 4.1 billion at end June 2013, compared to June In addition, its ratio to total debt registered 16.3 percent against 8.5 percent. The external debt per capita increased to US$ at end of June 2013, from US$ at end of June Medium- and long-term debt service payments increased by US$ million to US$ 3.1 billion, as a result of the US$ million increase in principal repayments, to reach US$ 2.4 billion, and the US$ 15.0 million decrease in interest payments, to US$ million. % % Chart (7) External Debt Indicators FY / / / /13 Debt Serv ice / Current Receipts (including transf ers) Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves Short-term Debt / Total External Debt Debt Serv ice / Exports of Goods and Serv ices / / / /13 Government External Debt / External Debt External Debt /GDP External Debt per capita (US$) (right axis) (US$) * For more indicators, refer to appendix I, table No 6. ** Debt-Service Ratio, The ratio of debt service (interest and principal payments due) during a year, expressed as a percentage of exports (typically of goods and services) for that year. This ratio is considered to be a key indicator of a country s debt burden.

23 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 15 G - External Debt Sustainability 1 and Global Comparison Egypt s external debt position is generally considered sustainable over the medium- and long- term periods. Egypt does not have currently any repayment difficulties, and all current debt burden annual indicators for assessing sustainability are well below the debt burden indicative thresholds recommended by the World Bank, as follows: The ratio of debt service payments as a percentage of exports of goods and services increased slightly to 6.4 percent in 2012/13 compared to 6.3 percent in 2011/12. It lies far below the least threshold, ranging between percent. The ratio of external debt stock as a percentage of GDP jumped to 17.3 percent in 2012/13 from 13.2 in 2011/12. However, it is well below the ratio of 31.1 percent in 2004/05 and the threshold which ranged between percent. The ratio of debt stock to exports of goods and services increased gradually from 64.4 percent in 2008/09 to 71.4 percent, 74.8 percent and 89.7 percent in 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 respectively; it is still below the percent threshold for that ratio. Although no comparison has been made between the indicative thresholds over a 20-year projection period and the NPV of all future debt burden ratios due on the external debt, the data on medium- & long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt service over the period of shows no possibility to reach the thresholds. (See the following chart and table). Chart (8) Total Medium - and Long - Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed US$ mn External Debt Service Principal Interest Total Year /Period Debt Stock to GDP Egypt's External Debt Sustainability Ratios Debt Stock to Exports Debt Service to GDP Debt Service to Exports Shortterm Debt to NIR NIR to Debt Service Per Capita External Debt (USD) 2004/ / / / , / , / , / / / Indicative thresholds* * Indicative thresholds recommended by the World Bank and IMF, degree of risk: "low - medium -high". 1 Debt Sustainability: Is the ability of government to service its borrowings, both internal and external, without resorting to rescheduling or accumulation of arrears.

24 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 16 In terms of international comparison, the following is the recent data disseminated by the IMF in its periodical report, "World Economic Outlook", comparing Egypt's key debt indicators with those prevailing in other regional country groups. As it can be seen from the table, the third ratio is well below the averages of those prevailing in other economic regions in The first ratio puts Egypt ahead of all regions except for developing Asia, while the second ratio puts Egypt ahead only of the Central and Eastern Europe and Latin American and Caribbean regions and behind developing Asia, MENA, and Sub- Saharan Africa regions. External Debt Indicators for Regional Country Groups Key External Debt indicators (%) Region Debt stock/gdp Debt stock/ Exports of goods & services Debt Service/ Exports of goods & services Central & Eastern Europe Developing Asia Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa Egypt * Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Report, October 2013 (actual data of 2011, 2012 and projections of 2013). * According to Central Bank of Egypt, Egypt's BOP data, annual indicators at end of June.

25 Section V Exchange Rate Developments

26 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 17 Exchange Rate Development (i) Inter-bank Rate 1 : In FY 2012/2013, the weighted average of the US dollar in the Egyptian inter-bank market appreciated by about 15.7 percent against the Egyptian pound (EGP). This brought the rate to EGP at end- June 2013, from EGP at end- June (ii) Market Rate: The decline in the Egyptian pound against the dollar was a natural result of the decrease in the supply of dollar in the domestic market during the reporting year, amid the current political events. 9.5 Chart (1):Exchange Rate of USD & Euro against EGP End-period 7.5 The Egyptian pound depreciated against foreign currencies. According to the foreign exchange market (buying price), the Egyptian pound depreciated against the euro by 17.6 percent, the Chinese yuan by 16.8 percent, the Swiss franc by 15.7 percent, each of the US dollar, the Saudi riyal and the UAE dirham by 13.8 percent, the Kuwaiti Dinar by 12.1 percent, and the pound Sterling by 11.9 percent. On the other hand, the Egyptian pound appreciated against the Japanese yen (100 yens) by 7.7 percent Sep-10 Euro market rate(buy ing price) (lef t axis) USD Interbank rate(av erage) USD market rate(buy ing price) Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun / / / the inter-bank foreign exchange market was launched in Egypt in December 2004.

27 Statistical Section

28 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix I Table Page I- Balance of Payments BOP Current Account BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.). 22 II- International Investment Position (IIP) 2 23 III- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 3 24 IV- External Liquidity NIR & NFA at Banks V- External Debt External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators. External Debt by Debtor VI- Exchange Rate Developments Exchange Rates (In Egyptian Pound per foreign currency unit) 8 29

29 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 21 Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) 2011/2012* 2012/2013* Trade Balance Exports** Petroleum Other Exports Imports** Petroleum Other Imports Services (Net) Receipts Transportation, of which : Suez Canal Travel Investment Income Government receipts Other Payments Transportation Travel Investment Income, of which Interest Paid Government Expenditures Other Balance of Goods & Services Transfers Private Transfers (Net) Official Transfers (Net) Current Account Balance * Preliminary. ** Include free zones exports and imports.

30 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 22 Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.) (US$ mn) 2011/2012* 2012/2013* Capital & Financial Account Capital Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: Bonds Other Investment (Net) Net Borrowing M&L-Term Loans (Net) Drawings Repayments MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Drawings Repayments ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) * Preliminary.

31 End of Table (2) International Investment Position (IIP) December 2009 December 2010 December 2011 December 2012 * (US$ millions) Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Total Direct investment Portfolio investments Equity security Debt security Other investments Trade credits General government 0.0 Other sectors Short-term Loans Monetary authorities Other long-term General government Long-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Currency and deposits Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term Banks Other sectors Other assets Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Banks Other sectors Reserve assets * Preliminary. Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 23

32 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 24 Table (3) Egypt's Coordinated Portfolio investment survey (CPIS) at end of December 2012 Breakdown of Portfolio Investment Assets by country of residenc of the (Issuer) (US$ millions) Country of non-resident issuers Equities Long-term debt securities Short-term debt securities Total United States Saudi Arabia Cayman Islands United Kingdom United Arab Emirates Qatar Turkey Germany Switzerland International Organizations India France Ethiopia Italy Bahrain Malaysia Belgium Lebanon Sudan Japan Malta Netherlands China, P.R Kuwait Belize Mozambique Singapore Ireland Pakistan Poland Hong Kong SAR of China Jordan Luxembourg Tunisia Sri Lanka Ghana Oman Spain Syrian Arab Republic Nigeria Kenya Romania South Africa Total

33 Table (4) :Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets at Banks (US$ million) End of June Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Banks' Net Foreign Assets Assets Liabilities Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 25

34 Table (5) External Debt by Type (US$ mn) Total External Debt* Medium & Long term debt : Rescheduled bilateral debt ** ODA Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries International & regional Organizations Suppliers' & buyers' credits Egyptian bonds and notes Long- term deposits Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) Short-term debt Deposits Other short-term facilities Source: Central Bank of Egypt. + Provisional End of June Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 26

35 Table (6) External Debt Indicators FY 2004/ / / / / / / / /13 + External Debt / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service * (Principal & Interest) (US$ mn.) Debt Service / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service / Current Receipts % Interest / Exports (G & S) % External Debt /GDP (at current market prices) Short-term Debt / External Debt Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves External Debt per capita (US$) Provisional * includes interest payments on US dollar-denominated bonds and notes holding by nonresedents (%) Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 27

36 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 28 Table (7) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of June 2012 % June 2013* % Change (-) % External Debt Total Medium- & Long-Term Total Short-Term Central & Local Government Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Monetary Authority Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans (41.8) (16.4) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities ** (6.0) 1.0 Short-Term , Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Banks (24.5) (1.5) Medium- & Long-Term Loans Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans (120.3) (13.2) Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits (120.3) (13.2) Other Liabilities Other Sectors (474.0) (10.4) Medium- & Long-Term (238.5) (9.3) Loans from Direct Investors Bonds & Notes Trade Credits Loans (238.5) (9.3) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term (235.5) (11.8) Loans from Direct Investors Money Market Instruments Trade Credits (235.5) (11.8) Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities * Provisional. ** Representing US$ 1, million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR MM.

37 Table (8) Exchange Rates (In Egyptian pound per foreign currency unit) First: Interbank Rates * Minimum Maximum Weighted average Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell US Dollar Euro Pound Sterling Swiss Franc Japanese Yens Saudi Riyal Kuwaiti Dinar UAE Dirham Chinese Yuan Source: CBE daily exchange rates. End of June 2012 * The interbank rates were launched on December 23, June Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 29

38 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix II Table Page I- Medium - and Long -Term External Debt A- Outstanding Stock Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt 2 35 a. Paris Club Bilateral Debt (1) Rescheduled Debt 4 38 (2) Non Rescheduled Debt b. Supplier's Credit c. Other Bilateral Debt d. Multilateral Institutions Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed B. Outstanding External Short-Term Debt C. Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans & Deposits II- Projected Medium - and Long -Term External Debt Service Public and Publicly Guaranteed Paris Club Debt a. Rescheduled Debt b. Non Rescheduled Debt Supplier's Credit Other Bilateral Debt Multilateral Institutions Projected Guaranteed Notes Projected Sovereign Notes Projected Saudi Bond Projected Euro-Medium Term Notes (E.M.T.N) Projected Deposits III- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar 24 63

39 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 33 Table ( 1 ) Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) Total Debt Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 30, , , , A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 16, , , , Rescheduled Debt 12, , , , Non-Rescheduled Debt 4, , , , B- Supplier's Credit C. Other Bilateral Debt , , , D. Multilateral Institutions (1) 9, , , , E. Bonds &Notes 3, , , , Sovereign Bond Guaranteed Notes 1, , , , Egyptian Pound Euro Bond Sovereign Notes 1, , Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) (2) , F. Deposits (3) , , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 2, , , , Deposits (Non-Residents) 1, Other 1, , , , Qatar Deposits , Grand Total 33, , , , Using end of period exchange rate. (1) Includes US$ 1,351 million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. (2) Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) due 2014 with nominal value US$ 2700 ( Qatar US$ 2500 million and residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 200 million). (3) Representing Saudi & Libya deposits amounted to US$ 1000 and 2000 million respectively. Figure 1-1 ( US$bn ) 45.5 External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June

40 Figure 1-2 Figure 1-2 Deposits 8.29% Bonds & Notes 14.26% Medium-and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End ofjune 2013 Other Bilateral Debt 6.62% Supplier's Credit 0.04% Multilateral Institutions 33.08% Paris Club Bilateral Debt 37.71% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 34

41 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 35 Table ( 2 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Germany 3, , , , Japan 3, , , , France 3, , , , United States 3, , , , Turkey , Kuwait Spain China Italy Switzerland Austria Denmark Canada United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Australia The Netherlands Belgium United Arab emirates Sweden Norway Lebanon Creditor Countries Multilateral Institutions 9, , , , {2} Notes, Bonds and Deposits Deposits , , Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) Guaranteed Notes 1, , , , Sovereign Notes 1, , Saudi Bond Egyptian Pound Euro Bond Sovereign Bond {3} Grand Total 30, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 1,351 million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR MN. (3) Representing Saudi & Libya deposits amounted to US$ 1000 and 2000 million respectively.

42 Figure 2 Turkey 3% Guaranteed Notes 3% Japan 8% Germany 9 % Deposits 8% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2013 United States 7 % Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 7% France 8 % Multilateral Institutions 33% Other Countries 14% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 36

43 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 37 Table ( 3 ) {1} Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {2} Germany 3, , , , Japan 3, , , , France 3, , , , United States 3, , , , Spain Italy Switzerland Austria Denmark Canada United Kingdom Australia The Netherlands Belgium Sweden Norway Grand Total 16, , , , {1} This table sums up tables 4 and 5. {2} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$bn )

44 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 38 Table ( 4 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Bilateral Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Japan 2, , , , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Germany 1, , , , Spain Austria Switzerland Italy Canada United Kingdom Denmark Australia The Netherlands Belgium Sweden Norway Grand Total 12, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$bn )

45 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 39 Table ( 5 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Bilateral Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} 2013 Germany 1, , , , Japan 1, , , France United States Spain Denmark Italy Switzerland Belgium Austria Sweden United Kingdom Grand Total 4, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 5-1 5,000 4,800 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,

46 Figure 5-2 Non-Rescheduled Debt 31% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2013 Rescheduled Debt 69% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 40

47 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 41 Table ( 6 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) {1} Country Total Debt Canada Japan Italy Lebanon Denmark Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Public &Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn )

48 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 42 Table ( 7 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Other Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Turkey , Kuwait China Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Grand Total , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 7 2,500 2,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Other Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 1,500 1,

49 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 43 Table ( 8 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June Creditor Total Debt (US$ million) {1} IBRD 2, , , , European Investment Bank 1, , , , African Development Bank 1, , , , Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1, , , , IMF 1, , , , {2} IDA 1, , , , Arab Monetary Fund Islamic Development Bank African Development Fund OPEC International Fund for Agricultural Development Arab International Bank Arab Trade Financing Program Grand Total 9, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. Figure ,000 10,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

50 Figure 8-2 African Development Bank 13% IBRD 28 % Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2013 IMF 11% Others 10% IDA 10% European Investment Bank 16% AFESD 12% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 44

51 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 45 Table ( 9 ) Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Multilateral Institutions Greece United States Bahrain Austria Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn )

52 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 46 Table ( 10 ) Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) Total Debt Short-Term Debt Qatar Deposits , (1) Trade Credits 1, , , , Deposits (Non-Residents) 1, Loans Grand Total 2, , , , (1) Representing Qatar deposits amounted US$ 4500 million. Figure 10 8,000 7,000 6,000 Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

53 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 47 Table ( 11 ) Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposit from 1/7/2010 to 30/6/2013 Signed Amount Disbursed Undisbursed 1- Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 11, , , A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 1, , Non-Rescheduled Debt 1, , B. Other Bilateral Debt 2, , C. Multilateral Institutions 5, , , (US$ million) {1} D. Deposits {2} 3, , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt Grand Total 11, , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Representing Saudi & Libya deposits amounting to US$ 1000 and 2000 million; respectively. Figure 11 6, Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposits from 1/7/2006 to 30/6/2013 5, ( US$mn ) 4, , , , Signed Loans and Deposit Disbursed Undisbursed

54 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 48 Table ( 12 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2013/H , /H /H , /H /H2 (2) , /H /H , /H /H2 (3) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H1 (4) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H1 (5) , /H /H , /H /H /H1 (6) /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 34, (7) 4, (8) 39, (1) The exchange rate of June 30, (2) Includes US$ million Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) maturing (3) Includes US$ million guaranteed notes maturing (4) Includes US$ million Saudi bond maturing (5) Includes US$ million sovereign notes maturing (6) Includes US$ million sovereign notes maturing (7) Excludes US$ 1, million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR MN. (8) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation.

55 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Figure 12 US$ mn Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 49 Principal Interest Total

56 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 50 Table ( 13 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Paris Club Bilateral Debt as of July 1, 2013 (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 13, , , {1} The exchange rate of June 30, 2013.

57 Figure 13 US$ mn Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Paris Club Bilateral Debt Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 51

58 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 52 Table ( 14 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Paris Club Bilateral Debt Rescheduled Debt (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 9, , , {1} The exchange rate of June 30, 2013.

59 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 53 Table ( 15 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Paris Club Bilateral Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , {1} The exchange rate of June 30, 2013.

60 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 54 Table ( 16 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Supplier's Credit as of July 1, 2013 (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total {1} The exchange rate of June 30, 2013.

61 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 55 Table ( 17 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Other Bilateral Debt Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 2, , {1} The exchange rate of June 30, (US$ million) {1}

62 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 56 Table ( 18 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Multilateral Institutions (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 10, (2) 1, (3) 12, {1} The exchange rate of June 30, (2) Excludes US$ 1, million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. (3) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation.

63 Figure 18 US$ mn Total Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Multilateral Institutions as of July 1, Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 57

64 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 58 Table ( 19 ) Projected Guaranteed Notes Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2013/H /H /H /H /H2 1, , Grand Total 1, ,389.05

65 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 59 Table ( 20 ) Projected Sovereign Notes Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total ,881.99

66 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 60 Table ( 21 ) Projected Saudi Bond Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total

67 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 61 Table ( 22 ) Projected Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2013/H /H /H2 2, , Grand Total 2, ,659.39

68 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 62 Table ( 23 ) Projected Deposits (1) Debt Service as of July 1, 2013 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2013/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 3, , (1) Representing Saudi & Libya deposits amounted to US$ 1000 and 2000 million respectively.

69 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 63 Table ( 24 ) Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar as at End of June Country Currency United States USD Switzerland CHF Denmark DKK Egypt EGP Sweden SEK Japan JPY India INR United Kingdom GBP Canada CAD Australia AUD Norway NOK Euro EURO Special Drawing Rights SDR Kuwait KWD United Arab Emirates AED Saudi Arabia SAR

70 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix III Box Page I- Egypt's subscription to SDDS and data quality dimensions 1 66 II- Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions 2 67 III- Doing Business in Egypt IIII- Tourism Market Diversification Definitions and Terminology. 70

71 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 66 Box. (1): Egypt's subscription to SDDS and data quality dimensions: In 1996, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The SDDS is intended to guide countries that have, or seek to have, access to international capital markets in their provision of economic and financial statistics. Subscription to SDDS is voluntary and it requires subscribers to observe the standard and provide information on data and dissemination practices (the metadata) to the IMF for re-dissemination. The standard identifies 4 dimensions of data dissemination: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness; access by the public; the integrity of the disseminated data; and the quality of the data themselves. In particular, the data dimension lists 18 data category, providing coverage for 4 sectors (real, financial, fiscal and external sectors) of the economy and prescribes minimum timeliness and frequency standard, summarized in table below. On January 31, 2005, Egypt became the 59th subscriber to the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The report of external position contains external sector data that consist of external debt, balance of payments, international reserves, merchandise trade, international investment position (IIP) and exchange rates data. Such data are published in compliance with the requirement under Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF. Central Bank of Egypt compiles these statistics and disseminates them through press releases, its website, and at the same time, on the IMF's Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB). Also, these data are included in the CBE main publications; quarterly Economic Review, Annual Report and monthly Bulletins. As the title indicates, the most comprehensive and complete databases are those available from national sources, supplying high quality, timely and accurate data to international financial community to support investment activity. SDDS Data Categories and Related Periodicity & Timeliness Standards SDDS Data Category Periodicity Minimum Timeliness Real Sector National Accounts Quarterly 1 Quarter Production indices Monthly 6 weeks Employment, unemployment, Wage/earnings Quarterly 1 Quarter Consumer price index Monthly 1 Month Fiscal Sector General Government operations Annual 2 quarters Central Government operations Monthly 1 Month Central Government debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Financial Sector Analytical accounts of the banking sector Monthly 1 Month Analytical accounts of the Central Bank Monthly 2 weeks Interest rates and stock market Daily * No timeliness standard set External Sector Balance of payments Quarterly 1 Quarter International reserves Monthly 1 week Merchandise trade Monthly 8 weeks International investment position (IIP) Annual 3 quarters External debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Exchange rates Daily *No timeliness standard set Source: IMF Statistics Department. 1

72 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 67 Box. (2):Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions*: According to international rating agencies, having an efficient, effective and reliable economic data, especially in developing countries, is becoming increasingly crucial to assign an appropriate sovereign credit rating. Thus, a lack of data in this area will automatically translate into a perception of high risk. Therefore, highlighting the dimensions of Egypt data quality by showing the results of World Bank index (BBSC 2013) will be an appropriate way to show how reliable are the Egyptian official data. Egypt ranked 10 th on World Bank's Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity index on 149 developing countries and 1 st on the MENA and African regions, with an overall statistical capacity index of 90 points, compared to 87 points in This score puts Egypt among the top 10 country group score list, ranging between points. These countries can be distinguished and noticed easily on the map by countries colored dark green, as shown above. Statistical Capacity Indicator 2013 (on a scale of 0-100) Indicator Egypt All Countries Overall Methodology Source Data Periodicity & timeliness A country's statistical capacity means its ability to extract and publish reliable and timely statistical data, easily accessible by the public. The statistical capacity index, issued annually by the World Bank, consists of three sub-indicators which include; methodology, data sources, and its periodicity and timeliness. The latter measures the degree of information and data dissemination concerning changes in government policy, and how easily that information can be accessed by the public. It is worth mentioning that, aiming to improve the statistical capacity of 149 developing countries, the World Bank provides information on various aspects of national statistical systems through the BBSC indicator at its website. As it can be seen from the table and its chart, Egypt s score outpaced the average score of all countries, either on the level of the overall index, or on the level of its three sub-indicators, getting the highest score of 100 points on the scale in the source data sub-indicator.