Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes

Transcription

1 Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes March 2004

2 Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes Data Collected by Woelfel Research, Inc. Report Prepared by Rachelle Cummins Copyright 2004 AARP Knowledge Management 601 E Street NW Washington, DC Reprinting with Permission

3 AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization dedicated to making life better for people 50 and over. We provide information and resources; engage in legislative, regulatory and legal advocacy; assist members in serving their communities; and offer a wide range of unique benefits, special products, and services for our members. These include AARP The Magazine, published bimonthly; AARP Bulletin, our monthly newspaper; AARP Segunda Juventud, our quarterly newspaper in Spanish; NRTA Live & Learn, our quarterly newsletter for National Retired Teachers Association members; and our Web site, We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Acknowledgements AARP staff from the Virginia State Office, State Affairs, and Knowledge Management contributed to the design and implementation of this study. Special thanks go to AARP staff including Bill Kallio, Madge Bush, Tony Hylton, and Randal Black of the Virginia State Office; Clare Hushbeck, State Affairs; and Gretchen Straw, Kate Bridges, Susan Silberman, Darlene Matthews, Laura O'Connor, Barry Robinson, Jennifer Leslie, and Cheryl Barnes of Knowledge Management. John Woelfel and Leslie Seabright Schoeberlein of Woelfel Research insured a timely and high quality survey. Rachelle Cummins, AARP Knowledge Management, managed all aspects of the project and wrote the report. For more information, contact Rachelle Cummins at (202)

4 Background Like many states, Virginia is experiencing an economic downturn characterized by lower state revenues and greater need for state services than projected. Over the last two years, Virginia cut $6 billion from its budget. Nevertheless, Virginia now faces an estimated $1 billion gap in the state budget. State lawmakers are considering "two dramatically different tax and budget plans (Shear, 2004a)." The House is offering a $58.3 billion budget with a $520 million tax plan that largely ends sales tax breaks for some businesses while the Senate proposes a $62 billion budget with a $3.9 billion tax plan based largely on broad tax increases. What is at stake is very serious business. According to Steven J. Kantor, an investment manager advising the state's treasury board, "Virginia will lose its reputation for creditworthiness unless it resolves its long-term budget problems and invests in roads, schools, colleges, and prisons (Shear, 2004b)." A lower credit rating means paying higher interest rates on money Virginia borrows. This threat, coupled with the aforementioned budget cuts over the past two years, makes it clear that the recurring imbalance between the needs of the citizens and the revenues of the Commonwealth needs to be definitively addressed. In late February 2004, AARP conducted a telephone survey of 812 randomly selected Virginians age 18 or older who report they are registered to vote. The survey explores their opinions about cuts to spending on state services and changes to the tax system as potential ways to address the budget gap. Specifically, the survey measures: Support for cuts in spending for state services Support for cuts to health and long-term care services, education, public safety, funds for local governments, and highways within the context of balancing the state budget without increasing taxes Support for increasing state taxes within the context of balancing the state budget without major spending cuts and pairing increases with reductions in other taxes Support for decreasing state taxes within the context of balancing the state budget without major spending cuts and pairing reductions with increases in other taxes Support for total tax reform Report Organization The highlights section provides a brief overview of the major survey results. The findings section presents the survey data. The results are reported as percentages. 1 The conclusions section is followed by the methodology section which discusses the response rate, sampling error, and weighting the data. An annotated questionnaire, appended to the report, discloses all survey responses. 1 Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March 2004

5 Highlights Voters Oppose Cuts in Spending for State Services Nearly seven in ten voters in Virginia (69) oppose cuts in spending for state services. Eight in ten Virginia voters oppose cuts to health and long-term care services for children, older persons, and people with disabilities (81) and education including K-12 and higher education (81). Over half oppose cuts to highway and road maintenance and construction (61); cuts to public safety, courts, and jails (59); and cuts to funds that the state gives to local governments (58). Voters Support a Mix of Tax Increases and Decreases to Balance the Budget without Major Spending Cuts When paired with reductions in other taxes, about 70 percent of voters in Virginia support increasing cigarette (75), corporate (73), and income taxes on households with incomes over $100,000 (68) to help balance the state budget without major spending cuts. Sixty percent support increasing the state sales tax. Fewer voters support reducing the age-based income tax deduction (36) or increasing the state gasoline tax (35) to help balance the state budget without major spending cuts. When paired with increases in other taxes, about seven in ten voters in Virginia support lowering income taxes on the first $20,000 of income for all filers (72), increasing the personal income tax exemption from $800 to $1,000 (69), and increasing the standard income tax deduction from $3,000 to $3,500 for individuals and from $5,000 to $7,000 for couples (68) to help balance the state budget without major spending cuts. Fewer voters, albeit over half, support lowering the sales tax on food from 4 percent to 2.5 percent (58) to help balance the state budget without major spending cuts. Voters Support Total Tax Reform Taking into account tax increases through state sales, cigarette, gasoline, corporate, and some income taxes and decreases through car, estate, food, and some income taxes, six in ten voters support total tax reform. There is greater support for total tax reform if it helps Virginia provide quality public and higher education (77) and balances the state budget without more major cuts in spending on services (73). There is slightly less support for total tax reform if it reduces taxes for a majority but raises taxes for a minority of Virginians (55). Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

6 About one and a half times as many voters think the Legislature should change the tax system, increasing some taxes and decreasing others, to prevent more cuts to spending on state services (55) rather than adopt a budget with the money available and cut spending on state services (34). Findings Voters Agree Virginia Has Serious Financial Problems While registered voters in Virginia are divided on whether the state is on the right track (37) or the wrong track (45) in its spending and taxing policies, nearly seven in ten agree (68) that Virginia has serious financial problems. A majority of Virginia's registered voters (74) have seen, read, or heard something about Virginia's state budget in the last two years. However, just 42 percent have seen, read, or heard something about tax reform in In an open-ended question, a quarter of registered voters in Virginia say that taxes (12) and the budget (12) are the most important issues facing Virginia right now. After being told that Virginia has a budget gap of $1 billion, registered voters were asked to say whether there should be mostly cuts in spending without tax increases to balance the budget or mostly tax increases without cuts in spending to balance the budget. Responses are nearly equally divided. Forty-two percent want mostly cuts while 38 percent want mostly tax increases. Although it was not presented as a choice, eleven percent volunteer that Virginia needs to do both raise taxes and cut state services. However, this picture changes somewhat as respondents consider detailed options. Voters Oppose Cuts in Spending for State Services Over the last two years, the Governor and Legislature have cut spending for state services such as K-12 and higher education and health and long-term care services to balance the state budget. When asked whether they support or oppose cuts in spending for state services, half strongly oppose and one in five somewhat oppose cuts. Survey respondents were told that some lawmakers who have pledged no new taxes in Virginia would cut spending on state services such as education, health care, public safety, and transportation to balance the budget, while other lawmakers want to increase taxes overall by changing the mix of taxes, decreasing some and increasing other taxes to balance the budget without any more major cuts to spending on services. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

7 Opposition to specific spending cuts for services is much stronger in the face of balancing the budget without increasing taxes. Over eight in ten oppose cuts to education, including K-12 and higher education and health and long-term care services for children, older persons, and people with disabilities, with about two-thirds strongly opposing. Over half oppose cuts to highway and road maintenance and construction; cuts to funds the state gives local governments, even if property taxes have to be increased to pay for local services; and cuts to public safety, courts, and jails although only about a third strongly oppose these cuts. Opposition to Spending Cuts n=812 VA Registered Voters Cuts to Education Cuts in Health & Long-Term Care Cuts in General Cuts in Roads Cuts in Local Gov Funds Cuts in Public Safety Strongly oppose Somewhat oppose Voters Support a Mix of Tax Increases and Decreases to Balance the Budget without Major Spending Cuts Following their opinion on cuts to services, respondents were asked about some possible tax changes to help balance the budget without major spending cuts. First, they were asked about tax increases that would be paired with reductions in other taxes. At least 60 percent of registered voters in Virginia support increasing the cigarette tax to 35 cents, increasing taxes on corporations, increasing the income tax rate from 5.75 to 6.25 percent for households above $100,000 income, and increasing the state sales tax from 4.5 to 5.5 percent except for food. About half or more strongly support increasing the cigarette tax, corporate taxes, and the income tax rate on higher income households. About a third support reducing the age-based income tax deduction for people age 62 or older based on their income and increasing the state gasoline tax by 3 cents to 20.5 cents per gallon while roughly six in ten voters oppose these tax increases. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

8 Support for Tax Increases That Would Be Paired with Tax Decreases n=812 VA Registered Voters Cigarette Tax to 35 cents 68 7 Corporate Taxes Income Tax Rate for $100k Sales Tax to Income Tax Deduction for 62+ State Gasoline to 20.5 cents Strongly support Somewhat support Next, respondents were asked about tax cuts that would change the mix of taxes and help balance the budget without major spending cuts but would be paired with increases in other taxes. A majority of registered voters in Virginia support all of the proposals, and at least two in five strongly support lowering income taxes on the first $20,000 of income for all tax filers, decreasing the sales tax on food from 4 percent to 2.5 percent, and increasing the standard income tax deduction from $3,000 to $3,500 for individuals and from $5,000 to $7,000 for couples. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

9 Support for Tax Decreases That Would Be Paired with Tax Increases n=812 VA Registered Voters Lower Tax on First $20, Decrease Sales Tax on Food to 2.5 Increase Standard Income Tax Deduction Increase Personal Income Tax Exemption Strongly support Somewhat support Voters Support Total Tax Reform Respondents were read a statement about total tax reform in Virginia. The State is considering a major overhaul of the tax system. This total tax reform would increase some taxes while decreasing others. First, I'm going to read you a list of tax [ROTATE INCREASES/DECREASES]. The tax reform would increase the state sales tax, cigarette tax, state gasoline tax, and corporate taxes. It would increase the income tax rate for higher incomes, and it would reduce the age deduction for seniors based on income. Now, I'm going to read you a list of [ROTATE INCREASES/DECREASES]. The tax reform would eliminate the car tax and estate tax, decrease the sales tax on food, increase the personal income tax exemption and standard income tax deduction, and decrease the income tax on the first $20,000 of income. Taking into account the tax increases and decreases, 60 percent strongly (28) or somewhat support (32) total tax reform. Respondents were then presented three qualifiers that might impact support for or opposition to total tax reform. Three in four registered voters support the total tax reform described if it provides quality public and higher education in Virginia. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

10 When asked if it balanced the state budget without more major cuts in spending on services, support jumps to 73 percent with 39 percent strongly supporting and 34 percent somewhat supporting total tax reform. If it reduces taxes for a majority but raises taxes for a minority of Virginians, over half support total tax reform. Support for Total Tax Reform n=812 VA Registered Voters Provides Quality Education Balances State Budget w/o Cuts Tax Reform in General Reduces/Raises Taxes for Majority/Minority Strongly support Somewhat support Finally, respondents were asked: When the Legislature balances the current budget, what do you think it should do Change the tax system, increasing some and decreasing other taxes to prevent more cuts to spending on state services OR Adopt a budget with the money available and cut spending on state services? Over half of registered voters in Virginia (55) want to change the tax system, compared to just a third that want to adopt a budget with the money available and cut spending. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

11 How to Balance the Current State Budget in Virginia n=812 VA Registered Voters Change Tax System 55 Don't Know/ Refused 7 Neither 4 Adopt w/ Available $ Cut Services 34 Conclusions As Governor Warner and the Virginia State Legislators move forward to balance the budget, lawmakers should consider the opinions of registered voters in Virginia. Virginia's registered voters do not agree about whether the state is on the right track or wrong track in its spending and taxing policies; however, they agree that the state has serious financial problems. Registered voters in Virginia are initially divided on whether to mostly cut spending or mostly increase taxes to balance the state budget. However, their opposition to cuts in education and health and long-term care as well as their tolerance for increasing some taxes, especially cigarette, corporate, and the income tax rate on $100,000 or more while decreasing others especially income taxes on the first $20,000, the personal tax exemption, and the standard deduction suggest that Virginians are willing to pay for the services they want and need in order to balance the budget without more major cuts in spending. Support for total tax reform is greater than opposition to it. Whether it is to balance the budget without more major cuts in spending or it provides quality public and higher education, Virginia's registered voters support total tax reform at least 2 to 1. When forced to choose, more than half say they want the Legislature to balance the current budget by changing the tax system. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

12 Methodology AARP commissioned Woelfel Research to conduct a random digit dial (RDD) telephone survey of registered voters age 18 or older in Virginia. A total of 812 interviews were completed. The survey was conducted between February 19-25, The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples of this size, the results obtained in the sample would fall in a range of 3.5 percentage points of what would have been obtained if every registered voter age 18 or older in Virginia had been surveyed. Survey responses were weighted to reflect the distribution of age and gender of registered voters age 18 or older in Virginia as estimated in the 2000 Current Population Survey Voter Supplement. Weighted responses to all survey questions are in the attached annotated questionnaire. References Shear, M.D. (2004a, February 24). Budget Conferees Prepare to Square Off: Warner to Tread Carefully, for Now. The Washington Post, p. B01. Shear, M.D. (2004b, February 12). Adviser Warns Va. On Bond Rating: Budget Must Be Fixed, Legislators Are Told. The Washington Post, p. B01. 2 The response rate is 15 percent and the cooperation rate is 86 percent. The response rate is Response Rate 3 and the cooperation rate is Cooperation Rate 3 from the following publication: The American Association for Public Opinion Research Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates for Surveys. Ann Arbor, Michigan: AAPOR. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

13 Annotated Questionnaire Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

14 2004 Virginia Budget Survey WEIGHTED N = 812; RESPONSE RATE = 15, SAMPLING ERROR = +/- 3.5 (Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding. A "*" means a response is less than.5) SCREENER Hello, my name is, and I'm calling from Woelfel Research, a national research firm. This is not a telemarketing call, and we're not selling anything. We are conducting a survey about important issues facing Virginia and would like to include your opinions. Your views are important and we appreciate your participation. A. Are you at least 18 years of age or older? 1 Yes 2 No [ASK TO SPEAK TO SOMEONE IN HH AT LEAST 18 YEARS OLD] B. Are you currently registered to vote in Virginia? 1 Yes 2 No [ASK TO SPEAK TO SOMEONE IN HH REGISTERED TO VOTE IN VIRGINIA] C. GENDER {RECORD GENDER} 46 Male 54 Female Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

15 MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE Q1) What do you believe is the most important issue facing Virginia right now? [DO NOT READ] [CODE -- DISTINGUISH BETWEEN GENERAL, NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE COMMENTS ABOUT THE SAME TOPIC] 17 Education/Schools 14 Jobs/Unemployment 12 Taxes 12 Budget 7 Economy 3 Finances 3 Roads 3 Transportation 2 Health Care 2 Traffic 15 Other 10 Don t know 0 Refused [DO NOT READ] Q2) Overall, would you say Virginia is currently on the right track or on the wrong track in its spending and taxing policies? 37 On the right track 45 On the wrong track 17 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Q3) Do you agree or disagree that Virginia has serious financial problems? Is that strongly or somewhat? 40 Strongly agree 28 Somewhat agree 17 Somewhat disagree 6 Strongly disagree 9 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

16 Q4) Have you seen, read, or heard anything about Virginia's state budget in the last two years? 74 Yes 26 No 1 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 0 Refused [DO NOT READ] Q5) Over the last two years, the Governor and Legislature have cut spending for state services such as K through 12 and higher education and health and longterm care to balance the state's budget. Do you support or oppose cuts in spending for state services? Is that strongly or somewhat? 13 Strongly support 13 Somewhat support 20 Somewhat oppose 49 Strongly oppose 5 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Q6) Right now, Virginia has a $1 billion gap in the budget. Which best represents your opinion There should be mostly cuts to spending on state services without tax increases to balance the budget OR There should be mostly tax increases without cuts to spending on state services to balance the budget? ROTATE STATEMENTS 42 There should be mostly cuts to spending on state services without tax increases to balance the budget 38 There should be mostly tax increases without cuts to spending on state services to balance the budget 11 Virginia needs to do both raise taxes and cut state services [VOLUNTEERED] 8 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 2 Refused [DO NOT READ] Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

17 Q7) Some lawmakers who have pledged no new taxes for Virginia would cut spending on state services such as education, health care, public safety, and transportation to balance the budget. Other lawmakers want to increase taxes overall by changing the mix of taxes by decreasing some and increasing other taxes to balance the budget without any more major cuts to spending on services. I am going to ask you your opinion about some possible cuts to spending on services to help balance the state budget in Virginia without increasing taxes. [WITHIN CUTS ROTATE A-E. ALSO PROBE STRONGLY VERSUS SOMEWHAT FOR EACH ANSWER.] a. Do you support or oppose cuts to health care and long-term care services for children, older persons, and people with disabilities? Is that strongly or somewhat? 9 Strongly support 8 Somewhat support 17 Somewhat oppose 64 Strongly oppose 2 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 0 Refused [DO NOT READ] b. Do you support or oppose cuts to education, including K-12 and higher education? Is that strongly or somewhat? 10 Strongly support 8 Somewhat support 14 Somewhat oppose 67 Strongly oppose 3 Don't know [DO NOT READ] c. Do you support or oppose cuts to public safety, courts, and jails? Is that strongly or somewhat? 14 Strongly support 20 Somewhat support 29 Somewhat oppose 30 Strongly oppose 6 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

18 d. Local governments depend primarily on property taxes and state funds to pay for services such as fire and police protection, senior centers, and parks and recreation. Do you support or oppose cuts to the funds the state gives to local governments even if property taxes have to be increased to pay for local services? Is that strongly or somewhat? 16 Strongly support 19 Somewhat support 25 Somewhat oppose 33 Strongly oppose 7 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 1 Refused [DO NOT READ] e. Do you support or oppose cuts to highway and road maintenance and construction? Is that strongly or somewhat? 16 Strongly support 19 Somewhat support 27 Somewhat oppose 34 Strongly oppose 4 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Now, I am going to ask you your opinion about some possible tax changes to help balance the state budget without major spending cuts. The first few items represent increases that change the mix of taxes. Remember that these would be paired with reductions in other taxes. [WITHIN TAX INCREASES ROTATE F-K. ALSO PROBE STRONGLY VERSUS SOMEWHAT FOR EACH ANSWER.] f. Do you support or oppose increasing taxes on corporations? Is that strongly or somewhat? 51 Strongly support 22 Somewhat support 10 Somewhat oppose 13 Strongly oppose 4 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

19 g. Virginia currently has a 2.5 cent tax on a pack of cigarettes. Do you support or oppose increasing the current tax on a pack of cigarettes to 35 cents? Is that strongly or somewhat? 68 Strongly support 7 Somewhat support 5 Somewhat oppose 19 Strongly oppose 1 Don't know [DO NOT READ] h. Do you support or oppose increasing the income tax rate from 5.75 to 6.25 percent for households with annual incomes above $100,000? Is that strongly or somewhat? 47 Strongly support 21 Somewhat support 10 Somewhat oppose 20 Strongly oppose 2 Don't know [DO NOT READ] i. Do you support or oppose increasing the state sales tax from 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent except for food? Is that strongly or somewhat? 35 Strongly support 25 Somewhat support 12 Somewhat oppose 27 Strongly oppose 1 Don't know [DO NOT READ] j. Do you support or oppose increasing the state gasoline tax by 3 cents to 20.5 cents per gallon? Is that strongly or somewhat? 18 Strongly support 17 Somewhat support 12 Somewhat oppose 52 Strongly oppose 1 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

20 k. Currently there is an age-based income tax deduction for people age 62 or older. Do you support or oppose increasing taxes by reducing these deductions for people age 62 or older based on their income? Is that strongly or somewhat? 19 Strongly support 17 Somewhat support 19 Somewhat oppose 41 Strongly oppose 4 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Now, the next few items represent tax cuts that change the mix of taxes to help balance the state budget without major spending cuts. Remember that these would be paired with increases in other taxes. [WITHIN TAX DECREASES ROTATE L-O. ALSO PROBE STRONGLY VERSUS SOMEWHAT FOR EACH ANSWER.] l. The personal tax exemption reduces the income that is subject to tax by the exemption amount. Do you support or oppose increasing the personal income tax exemption from $800 to $1,000? Is that strongly or somewhat? 37 Strongly support 32 Somewhat support 13 Somewhat oppose 11 Strongly oppose 6 Don't know [DO NOT READ] m. The standard deduction reduces the income subject to tax for those who do not itemize their tax filing. Do you support or oppose increasing the standard income tax deduction from $3,000 to $3,500 for individuals and from $5,000 to $7,000 for couples? Is that strongly or somewhat? 42 Strongly support 26 Somewhat support 14 Somewhat oppose 11 Strongly oppose 7 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

21 n. Do you support or oppose lowering income taxes on the first $20,000 of income for all tax filers? Is that strongly or somewhat? 48 Strongly support 24 Somewhat support 12 Somewhat oppose 11 Strongly oppose 5 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 0 Refused [DO NOT READ] o. Do you support or oppose decreasing the sales tax on food from 4 percent to 2.5 percent? Is that strongly or somewhat? 43 Strongly support 15 Somewhat support 17 Somewhat oppose 24 Strongly oppose 1 Don't know [DO NOT READ] Now, I want to ask you about tax reform in Virginia. Q8) Have you seen, read, or heard anything about tax reform proposals for Virginia in 2004? 42 Yes 56 No 3 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 0 Refused [DO NOT READ] Q9) The State is considering a major overhaul of the tax system. This total tax reform would increase some taxes while decreasing others. [ROTATE INCREASES AND DECREASES] First, I'm going to read you a list of tax [INCREASES/DECREASES]. [READ VERY SLOWLY] The tax reform would increase the state sales tax, cigarette tax, state gasoline tax, and corporate taxes. It would increase the income tax rate for higher incomes, and it would reduce the age deduction for seniors based on income. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

22 Now, I'm going to read you a list of [INCREASES/DECREASES]. [READ VERY SLOWLY] The tax reform would eliminate the car tax and estate tax, decrease the sales tax on food, increase the personal income tax exemption and standard income tax deduction, and decrease the income tax on the first $20,000 of income. [REPEAT IF NECESSARY] Now, taking into account the tax increases and decreases just described, do you support or oppose this total tax reform? Is that strongly or somewhat? 28 Strongly support 32 Somewhat support 11 Somewhat oppose 14 Strongly oppose 5 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 10 Support some of it and Oppose some of it [DO NOT READ] Q10) If it balanced the state budget without more major cuts in spending on services, would you support or oppose this total tax reform just described? Is that strongly or somewhat? 39 Strongly support 34 Somewhat support 9 Somewhat oppose 12 Strongly oppose 4 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 3 Support some of it and Oppose some of it [DO NOT READ] Q11) If it reduces taxes for a majority but raises taxes for a minority of Virginians, would you support or oppose this total tax reform just described? Is that strongly or somewhat? 28 Strongly support 27 Somewhat support 14 Somewhat oppose 20 Strongly oppose 9 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 2 Support some of it and Oppose some of it [DO NOT READ] Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

23 Q12) If it helped Virginia provide quality public and higher education, would you support or oppose this total tax reform just described? Is that strongly or somewhat? 53 Strongly support 24 Somewhat support 7 Somewhat oppose 10 Strongly oppose 4 Don't know [DO NOT READ] 2 Support some of it and Oppose some of it [DO NOT READ] Q13) When the Legislature balances the current budget, what do you think it should do Change the tax system, increasing some and decreasing other taxes to prevent more cuts to spending on state services OR Adopt a budget with the money available and cut spending on state services? ROTATE STATEMENTS 55 Change the tax system, increasing some and decreasing other taxes to prevent more cuts to spending on state services 34 Adopt a budget with the money available and cut spending on state services 4 Neither [VOLUNTEERED] 7 Don't know [DO NOT READ Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

24 DEMOGRAPHICS My last few questions are for classification purposes only! D1. What is your age as of your last birthday? [RECORD IN YEARS] or older 2 Refused [DO NOT READ] D2. What is your marital status? Are you currently. 66 Married, 8 Divorced, 2 Separated, 7 Widowed, 15 Or have you never been married? * Living with partner [VOLUNTEERED] * DON T KNOW 1 REFUSED D3. Are you or your spouse a member of A-A-R-P formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons? [IF NOT MARRIED ASK, Are you a member ] 26 Yes 72 No 1 DON T KNOW/NOT SURE [DO NOT READ] * REFUSED [DO NOT READ] Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

25 D4. Thinking about your state elections for Virginia Governor and Legislators in the last ten years, which of the following best describes your voting behavior? Would you say you always vote, sometimes miss one, rarely vote, or never vote? 60 Always vote 27 Sometimes miss one 7 Rarely vote 5 Never vote 1 DON T KNOW/NOT SURE [DO NOT READ] * REFUSED [DO NOT READ] D5. What is the highest level of education you have completed? (READ ANSWER CATEGORIES) 7 Less than high school 23 High school graduate or equivalent 27 Some college or technical training beyond high school 27 College graduate 16 Or, Post-graduate or professional degree * DON T KNOW / NOT SURE [DO NOT READ] * REFUSED [DO NOT READ] D6. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as? (READ LIST ENTER 1) 33 A Republican 29 A Democrat 30 An Independent 4 Other (DO NOT READ) 3 Don t Know (DO NOT READ) 2 Refused (DO NOT READ) D7. Also, generally speaking, would you characterize your political views as being? (READ LIST. ENTER ONE ONLY) 39 Conservative 42 Moderate 13 Liberal 1 None of the above (DO NOT READ) 3 Don t Know (DO NOT READ) 1 Refused (DO NOT READ) Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

26 D8. Which of the following best describes your current employment status? Are you currently. 51 Employed full-time 10 Employed part-time 21 Retired and not working 3 Unemployed and looking for work 7 Homemaker 4 Disabled 3 Student * Or something else [Specify: ] * Don t Know (DO NOT READ) 1 Refused (DO NOT READ) D9. Do you currently smoke cigarettes on a regular basis? 18 Yes 82 No * DON T KNOW / NOT SURE (DO NOT READ) * REFUSED (DO NOT READ) D10. Now, for statistical purposes only, please stop me when I get to the category that includes your household s income before taxes in Was it (READ ANSWER CATEGORIES) 5 Less than $10,000 8 $10,000 but less than $20, $20,000 but less than $30, $30,000 but less than $40,000 9 $40,000 but less than $50, $50,000 but less than $75, $75,000 but less than $100, $100,000 or more 2 DON T KNOW (DO NOT READ) 9 REFUSED (DO NOT READ) D11. Do you own your own home or rent? 78 Own 19 Rent 3 REFUSED (DO NOT READ) Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

27 D12. What county do you live in? D13. What is your 5-digit zip code? D14. And, finally, may I verify that I reached you at: ( ) Thank you for participating! Your Opinion Counts. Into the Black: A Survey of Virginia Voters on State Service Cuts and Tax Changes, March

28 AARP Knowledge Management For more information please contact Rachelle Cummins (202)