ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Gulf Overview

Transcription

1 ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Gulf Overview Sylvain Hijazi 10 March 2008

2 Geographical context Lebanon Syria Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Iran Total Area: 430,000 sq.km Population: 12.1 million GDP: 416 B.USD Currencies: Linked to US$ Saudi Arabia Bahrain Qatar UAE Oman Installed Capacity: 53GW (GT 35 MW + ST 18 MW) Transport Rail: 0 km Yemen P 2

3 History of Gulf Countries (1/2) Were under the British Military control KUWAIT The first country gained independence on June 19, 1961 Al-Sabah dynasty has had a close partnership with British Foreign relations and defense since 1899 OMAN The second country became independent on Nov.18, 1970 Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al-Said since 1970 (take over from his father) QATAR Became independent on Sept.3, 1971, Al-Thani family had relations with UK since 1850 P 3

4 History of Gulf Countries (2/2) BAHRAIN Became independent on Aug. 15, 1971, Al-khalifa family had close relations with UK since 1870 UAE The federation formed in Dec.2, 1971 with 6 Emirates (excluding Fujairah). Fujairah joined the federation in early 1972 (originally the idea was to create the Federation with 9 Emirates) The Federation members are: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras Al- Khaimah and Umm Al-Quwain P 4

5 Gulf Oil & Gas Reserves P 5 Oil Gas

6 GCC Interconnection Gas Link Completed Under construction P 6 Actual Gas price 1.25$/Mbtu to 1.6$/Mbtu (still low versus other countries) Gas price will be increased to 3$/Mbtu in 2010 Dolphin pipe line will start to feed by 2 bcf/d on next April 08 (instead of 1.2 bcf/d actual today)

7 Regional policy GCC Interconnection - Electricity Link The interconnections are to be constructed in 3 phases and will provide MW of power to Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar & UAE. P 7

8 Regional policy GCC Interconnection Rail Link P 8 Project realisation may come by 2015

9 Economic situation Macro Economic Data - Gulf Countries (UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman & Kuwait) COUNTRY Area (km2) Populatio n (Million) Oil Reserve (Billion Barrels) Oil Prod. (Million Ba rrel s Gas Reserve (Trillion M3) Gas Prod. (b cf/da y) GDP (Billio n USD) GDP Per Capita (USD) Revenue (Billion USD) Expend. (Billion USD) Export (Billion USD) In p ort (Billion USD) Cu rren cy Exc.Ra te Vs US D UAE 90, , AED 3.67 BAHRAIN , BHD 0.38 QATAR 11, , QR 3.64 OMAN 309, , RO 0.39 KUWAIT 17, , KD 0.29 Gulf Region 430, P 9

10 Bahrain Bahrain was one of the first States in the Gulf to discover oil The Kingdom of Bahrain is made up of 33 islands and is home to one of the largest aluminum smelters in the world. King: H.H. Sheikh Hamad Bin-Isa Al-Khalifah Capital: Manama GNI per capita: US$ 21,330 GDP: US$ 16.9 billion Oil Reserves: billion barrels Oil Production: million barrels per day Population: 800,000 Area: sq km Exchange Rate: 0.38 Bahraini Dinar per US$ Gas Reserves: 0.09 trillion m 3 Gas Production: 0.89 bcf/day Arabs 10% Exp 1% Percentage Distribution of Population TCN 26% National 63% P 10

11 Kuwait The State of Kuwait is a small, oil-rich country nestling at the top of the Gulf, flanked by large and powerful neighbours - Saudi Arabia to the South, Iraq to the North and Iran to the East. Amir : H.H. Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-jaber Al-Sabah Capital: Kuwait City GNI per capita: US$ 30,188 GDP: US$ billion Oil Reserves: 101 billion barrels Oil Production: 2.49 million barrels per day Population: 3.2 million Area: 17,818 sq km Exchange Rate: 0.28 Kuwaiti Dinar per US$ Gas Reserves: trillion 1.56m 3 Gas Production: 0.84 bcf/day PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION Exp 7% TCN 13% National 45% Arabs 35% P 11

12 Oman Sultanate of Oman is a well-off country with large oil and gas resources, a substantial trade surplus, and low inflation. Oil is the mainstay of the economy, providing around 40% of GDP. Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said Capital: Muscat GNI per capita: US$13,609 GDP: US$ 40.5 billion Oil Reserves: 5.6 billion barrels Oil Production: 0.97 million barrels per day Population: 2.6 million Area: 309,500 sq km Exchange Rate: 0.39 Riyal per US$ Gas Reserves: 0.95 trillion m 3 Gas Production: bcf/day PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION Arabs 3% Exp 1% TCN 15% National 81% P 12

13 Qatar Emir: H.H. Sheikh Hamad Bin-Khalifah Al Thani The State of Qatar has developed from being one of the poorest Gulf States to become one of the richest. Natural Gas reserves 3 rd RASGAS QATARGAS largest in the world. Capital: Doha Population: 1 million Area: 11,437 sq km GNI per capita:us$ 57,000 GDP: US$ 65.8 billion Exchange Rate: 1 Q Riyal = 3.64 per US$ Oil Reserves: 15.5 billion barrels Oil Production : million barrels per day Gas Production: 3.8 bcf/day (Contracted LNG exports million tonnes a year) PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION TCN 41% Gas Reserves: trillion m 3 Exp 12% National 15% Arabs 32% P 13

14 United Arab Emirates (UAE) A federation of seven emirates formed in 1971: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain. The UAE is governed by a Supreme Council of Rulers of each of the emirates and presided by Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan (Ruler of Abu Dhabi). President H.H. Shaikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan Capital: Abu Dhabi GNI per capita: US$ 36,222 GDP : US$ billion Oil Reserves: 97.8 billion barrels Gas Reserves: 6.06 trillion m 3 Population: 4.5 million Area: 90,599 sq km Exchange Rate: Dirhams per US$ PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION Oil Production: 2.4 million barrels per day Gas Production: 4.4 bcf/d TCN 65% National 14% Exp 5% Arabs 16% P 14

15 UAE UAE: Federation of 7 Emirates EMIRATE RULER ABU DHABI H.H.Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan DUBAI H.H.Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum SHARJAH H.H.Dr.Shaikh Sultan Bin Mohammed Al Qassimi AJMAN H.H.Shaikh Humaid Bin Rashid Al Nuaimi FUJAIRAH H.H.Shaikh Hamad Bin Mohammed Al Sharqi RAS AL KHAIMAH UMM AL QUWAIN H.H.Shaikh Saqr Bin Mohammed Al Qassimi H.H.Shaikh Rashid Bin Ahmed Al Moalla P 15

16 Economic Context Gulf Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years) High Market Potential for Alstom P 16

17 Dubai - Sheikh Zayed Road Development Sheikh Zayed Road : Under Construction Burj Dubai Project Completion by March 2010 P 17

18 Dubai Building its Biggest and Prominent Projects The World Jumeirah Lakes Dubai Marina The Palm-Jumeirah P 18

19 Economic Context High Growth on Building & Infrastructure P 19

20 Dubai Emirate Registered Vehicles in Dubai Emirate 1400 # of Veh. (in 1000s) # of Veh. (in 1000s) Year Source: RTA - Dubai P 20

21 Dubai Rail Projects - Phase Construction Red Line Extension Blue Line Extension Americ an Univ. Al Sufouh Tram Purple Line Red Line Original Burj Dubai Tram Green Line Extension Union Square Green Line Motor city Tram Rashidiya Depot Blue Line Red Line (From Rashidiya to University) Green Line (From Abu Heil to Al Ras) Purple Line : - From Dubai Airport to Jebel Ali International Airport - Future Extension to Water Front Blue Line (From Dubai Airport to Jebel Ali International Airport) 112 km 17 km 47 km 35 km 90 km 36 stations 19 stations 15 stations 4 Stations 13 stations P 21

22 Rail Projects Abu Dhabi P 22

23 Abu Dhabi - Prominent Projects SARAYAH IN ABU DHABI P 23

24 Growth in GCC Countries PEARL QATAR THE BLUE CITY OMAN BARR AL JISSAH ISLAND P 24

25 Growth in GCC Countries TALA ISLAND BAHRAIN FINANCIAL HARBOUR SILK CITY IN KUWAIT THE RAPID GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF REGION EQUATES TO A GREATER DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY IN THE FUTURE. P 25

26 Economic Context Gulf Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years) P 26

27 High pressure to produce more Oil MB/d World Demand 82,1 92,5 104,9 115,4 World Offer 82,1 92,5 104,9 115,4 OPEC Middle East 22,8 26,6 35,3 44,0 + > 50% Arab world holds 60% world oil reserves & 35% of Gas reserves Source: World Energy Outlook P 27

28 Oil Production * Oil demand in 2008 will average 88 Million bpd Source: EIA / CIA) P 28

29 P 29 Gas Production

30 Economic Context Gulf Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years) P 30

31 Global Aluminium Production Shift 1980 (16 Mt) 2006 (33.9 Mt) 2020 (57.5 Mt) China, 2% Former USSR, 17% Others, 19% Australi a, 2% Canada, 7% Middle East, 1% Europe, 22% USA, 30% Others, 21% China, 27% Europe, 12% Former USSR, 12% USA, 7% Middle East, 6% Australi a, 6% Canada, 9% Others, 23% China, 25% Europe, 8% Former USSR, 20% USA, 5% Middle East, 10% Canada, 7% Australia, 4% Middle East Mainly Gulf Production 1.7 MT/Y Middle East Mainly Gulf Production 5.7 MT/Y Over of 4 MT/Y Production to be installed in the Gulf P 31

32 Alstom Presence in the Gulf 6 persons International Network/GPS 13 persons Power Systems 1 person Transport SHARJAH IN / GPS / Transport 20 Persons ALSTOM Power Service 140 Persons Main office & workshop at Jebel Ali Free Zone (Dubai) Branch offices at Abu Dhabi, Bahrain & Iran Total 160 Persons P 32

33 Major Recent References BAHRAIN MEW Hidd I & II 1000 MW (5 x GT13E2 + 1 x 300 MW ST + 3 HRSG) Completed MEW Riffa Phase II Upgrade 6 GT13ED to DM/EV Burners Under realization ALBA PS4 650 MW (3 x GT13E2 + 2 x 150 MW ST + 4 HRSG) Completed KUWAIT MEW Al-Zour South 800 MW (5 x GT13E2 ) Under realization OMAN Sohal Alum.Smelter 1000 MW (4 x GT13E2 + 2 x 200 MW ST + 4 HRSG) Completed QATAR QEWC Ras Abu Fontas B + B MW (8 x GT13E2) Completed UAE DUBAL Condor & Kestrel Add On ( 3 x 125 MW ST+ 6 HRSG behind 6 GT 9E) Completed DUBAL Kestrel II 450 MW (2 x GT13E2 + 1 ST 125 MW + 2 HRSG) Completed DUBAL GTX 150 MW (1 x GT13E2 + 1 HRSG) Under realization DUBAL Modernization of Kiln 1 to 5 (Fume Treatment) Completed DUBAL Fume Treatment Plant for Potlines 7B, 9B and 5B & 6B Under realization EMAL Fume Treatment & Flue Gas Desulphurization Plant Under realization ADWEA Fujairah II 2000 MW ( 5 x GT ST 220 MW + 5 HRSG) - Under realization P 33 Order Intake year 2007/08: Over 1.5 Bn

34 Conclusion Surplus cash / Liquidity (High Revenue) Growing Economy & high demographic growth High oil and gas reserves Low cost of Energy No corporate Tax or Individual Tax Low custom Duties (4%) Low cost of manpower (open market) Pre-planned ruling family succession / favorable Political Situation by comparison to region (American military base in Bahrain & Qatar) Safe place to live / moderate social setting Attraction for more Investors in Industrial/ Petrochemical/Oil & Gas/ Aluminum Industries and Regional Hub for International Companies GULF remains WORLD s fastest growing area in POWER P 34 DEMAND Per Capita GULF becomes an increasing market for Rail Transport

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