How Far Have We Come?
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1 How Far Have We Come? The Lingering Digital Divide and Its Impact on the Representativeness of Internet Surveys J. Michael Dennis, Ph.D. Executive Vice President and Managing Director Government and Academic Research GfK CRNA American Association of Public Opinion Research May Boston, MA GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
2 Co-Authors Curtiss L. Cobb III, Ph.D. Senior Research Director and Director of Survey Methodology Sampling Statistics Group GfK CRNA Beth Jaworski, Ph.D. Research Analyst Government and Academic Research GfK CRNA GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
3 GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
4 Digital Divide Some subgroups of the population remain less likely to be online than others. 78% Source: Pew Research Center s Internet & American Life Project s August Tracking Survey, 2011 GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
5 Advantages of Web Surveys Despite the Digital Divide, the use of the Internet for survey data collection grows exponentially because Web In-Person/ Face-to-Face Mail Phone Cost Cheapest Costly Cheap Moderate Speed Fastest Slow Moderate Fast Social Desirability Low High Low Moderate Survey Complexity High High Poor Good Chance of Interviewer Bias None High None Moderate Source: Duke Initiative on Survey Methodology ( GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
6 Motivating Question Has Internet penetration reached a point where the online population can adequately represent the U.S. general population? OR Given the persistence of the Digital Divide, should survey researchers still be concerned about sampling coverage issues? GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
7 Methodology GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
8 60,000+ members Probability-based ABS recruitment Recruitment takes place throughout the year Representative of U.S. adults Includes: Adults with no Internet access (22% of adults) KP provides netbook and free ISP Cell phone only (30% of adults and growing) Spanish-language Extensive profile data maintained on each member demographics, attitudes, behaviors, health, media usage, etc. Samples from the panel are assigned to projects invitations and a link to the online survey questionnaire GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
9 Methodology 3,000 online only 18+ gen pop sample VS 3,000 online and offline 18+ gen pop sample Both weighted to the same demographic benchmarks (age, race/ethnicity, gender, Census region, Internet access, income, marital status, language and education) Bivariate analyses (t-tests, chi-squares) Examine variables each across multiple topics using KnowledgePanel profile data (demos, public affairs, retail, technology, health) GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
10 Results GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
11 Results: Demographics Estimates for 5 out of 15 demographic variables not used for weighting were statistically different between the two samples. Absolute Difference (Average = 1.7 percentage points) GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
12 Results: Public Affairs Estimates for 7 out of 25 public affairs variables were statistically different between the two samples. Absolute Difference (Average = 1.4 percentage points) GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
13 Results: Health Estimates for 9 out of 25 health variables were statistically different between the two samples. Absolute Difference (Average = 2.1 percentage points) GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
14 Results: Retail Estimates for 10 out of 25 retail variables were statistically different between the two samples. Absolute Difference (Average = 2.6 percentage points) GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
15 Results: Technology Estimates for 11 out of 15 technology variables were statistically different between the two samples. Absolute Difference (Average = 3.4 percentage points) GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
16 Results: Relationship Between Variables The inclusion of Non-Internet Households impacts the relationships between variables as well. 80% 70% 60% Donate to Charity in the Last Year Statistically Different from Each Other 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Statistically Not Different from Each Other 0% Strong Republican Republican Lean Republican Independent Lean Democrat Democrat Strong Democrat Internet HHs Only Internet and Non-Internet HHs GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
17 Results: Have Things Changed Over Time? Differences between the offline and online populations persist over time. Significant Difference Between Online Only vs. On- and Offline in 2008 and * 2013 Recycled Newspapers in Last 12 Months Yes Yes Recycled Plastic in Last 12 Months Yes Yes Actively Participate in a Neighborhood or Community Group Yes Yes Gun Ownership Yes No * Zhang, Chan, Mario Callegaro, Melanie Thomas, and Charles DiSogra Do We Hear Different Voices?: Investigating the Differences Between Internet and Non-Internet Users on Attitudes and Behaviors. Presented at the 2009 Annual Conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
18 Conclusion Online researchers need as clear a picture as possible of the entire U.S. population for: Estimating true incidence levels Sizing markets and opportunities Obtaining publishable findings for peer-reviewed journals Despite growth in Internet penetration over the years, excluding non- Internet households can still lead to over- or under-estimations for individual variables and change the magnitude of the correlations between variables. GfK 2012 Title of presentation DD. Month
1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER
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